# Hillary just lost the election. **URL:** \ **Category:** Politics & Elections\ **Created:** [September 11, 2016, 4:04pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/hillary-just-lost-the-election/765663 "2016-09-11T16:04:02Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 40
**Author:** ![JKellyMap](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/jkellymap/32/15880_2.png) [@JKellyMap](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/JKellyMap)\ **Post date:** [September 16, 2016, 10:58am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/hillary-just-lost-the-election/765663/782 "2016-09-16T10:58:39Z")
Septimus, about Nate Silver and New Hampshire: Don’t pay much attention to his idea of a “tipping point” – he uses this in a specific way that doesn’t matter much other than “when are we likely to get to go to sleep on Election night.” The phrase “tipping point” as you and I perceive it might be better visualized by looking at Silver’s “snake” diagram – that twisting red and blue rope-like thing (scroll down his main page). This changes almost day to day, but at least for now New Hampshire is clearly a key state – very close to that 270 threshold, AND polling tightly. The only thing holdong it back from being even more key is its relatively low EV count. ---
**Author:** ![asahi](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/asahi/32/8693_2.png) [@asahi](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/asahi)\ **Post date:** [September 16, 2016, 11:05am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/hillary-just-lost-the-election/765663/783 "2016-09-16T11:05:25Z")
> [@septimus](#): > > Nitpick about Fivethirtyeight: Nate Silver does not show New Hampshire as a key tipping state, while Rothschild’s site’s simple presentation makes it clear that New Hampshire is about as likely as Pennsylvania to decide the election!! NH is definitely on my radar, although I had pretty much written Trump off in that state when he looked like he was imploding in his spat with the Khan family. The Granite State is back in play now it would seem, and I agree that it’s a potential tipper. Like you, my thought is that a NH victory by Trump would probably throw the election to the House if it turns out to be consequential. I think the House would ultimately vote for Trump, though it might take a few rounds and some bargaining before that happens. ---
**Author:** ![Corry\_El](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/c/ecae2f/32.png) [@Corry\_El](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Corry_El)\ **Post date:** [September 16, 2016, 5:21pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/hillary-just-lost-the-election/765663/784 "2016-09-16T17:21:49Z")
> [@septimus](#): > > One thing you’re missing is that Nate Silver audits his own work. He has a large collection of past races where he predicted the underdog had a 33% chance … \*and the underdog did indeed win in 33% of those races. > > And again, anyone convinced that the 35% Trump chance being quoted at sportsbooks is way too high has an opportunity to “put their money where their mouth is.”\* As I’ve said, no doubt in my mind Silver is a competent guy trying his best. But I question to what degree such models (not only his) have actually been tested, or are testable, in really relevant conditions. Again, if you want to test a model that gives the % likelihood of rain over next few days it’s easy to get lots of trials over a period short enough to be reasonably confident the underlying statistical process of the weather hasn’t changed. Harder to do that with elections, to know your approximation of the underlying process is true and hasn’t changed in several election cycles (or between various types of elections). And there’s room IMO for doubt by same token about betting odds as predictor because those aren’t very deep markets and may be the same as the well known models in part because the players look at the models a lot. Anyway betting odds now are pretty exactly in line with 538’s polls only/polls plus all at around 40% chance Trump wins (6/4=4/(6+4)=40% is the most common quote now on [oddschecker.com](http://oddschecker.com) for Trump wins). It is fair to say though that any of this is a nitpick relative to people arguing Trump has no chance or has it in the bag (though you probably wouldn’t see the latter here). I’m confident 40% is a better estimate than either of those positions. But then there’s the problem of confusion between being 20 points ahead in a poll (game over) and 20 points ahead in probability (almost a toss up), which seems pretty common to one degree or another. I still prefer to just look at the margin in averages of relevant polls and see it’s close (as it is now) or not close. But that’s become unfashionable relative to model or market based odds of winning. [http://www.oddschecker.com/politics/us-politics/us-presidential-election-2016/winner](http://www.oddschecker.com/politics/us-politics/us-presidential-election-2016/winner) ---
**Author:** ![Sherrerd](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/sherrerd/32/8_2.png) [@Sherrerd](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Sherrerd)\ **Post date:** [September 16, 2016, 9:28pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/hillary-just-lost-the-election/765663/785 "2016-09-16T21:28:51Z")
> [@Sherrerd](#): > > Certainly he’ll try to use the networks’ eagerness for ratings as leverage to try to shape the debate structure to his advantage. As has been reported, he wants to dispense with moderators–permitting him to simply talk over her the entire 90 minutes. No doubt the Trump people appreciated the way Matt Lauer asserted dominance over Clinton by repeatedly interrupting her. They don’t want any pesky moderator getting in the way of Trump putting her in her proper place in the same way. > > And schedule be damned: the networks really do want to be able to charge advertisers the rates they’ll get if Trump is there, so he does have a lot of power in the negotiation. So they may give in to his demands. We may indeed get 90 minutes of Trump talking while Clinton just stands there. > [@Loach](#): > > What advertisers? Have things changed? I don’t remember commercial breaks in the past. Though there won’t be commercial breaks during the debates, the debates are still a major money-maker for the networks if enough people watch, because of several profit centers: commercial time immediately before and immediately after the debates will sell at a premium; commercial time during post-debate shows will sell at a premium; banners and bugs on screen, as well as mentions by hosts, will send traffic to web sites; and finally, ratings for the debate shows, if high, will contribute to higher per-second rates for future commercial buys. My point, of course: despite TV news-people’s ire at Trump for Rick-Rolling them today, they remain committed to making him happy–because he makes them money. ---
**Author:** ![levdrakon](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/l/49beb7/32.png) [@levdrakon](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/levdrakon)\ **Post date:** [September 16, 2016, 9:35pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/hillary-just-lost-the-election/765663/786 "2016-09-16T21:35:59Z")
So Trump told the media he had something juicy about Obama’s birthplace and once he got them there he put the issue to bed by simply saying “he was born in the US” then went on to praise veterans and show off his hotel. Well played, Donathon. Still not voting for you. ---
**Author:** ![GIGObuster](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/gigobuster/32/421_2.png) [@GIGObuster](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/GIGObuster)\ **Post date:** [September 16, 2016, 10:01pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/hillary-just-lost-the-election/765663/787 "2016-09-16T22:01:23Z")
> [@levdrakon](#): > > So Trump told the media he had something juicy about Obama’s birthplace and once he got them there he put the issue to bed by simply saying “he was born in the US” then went on to praise veterans and show off his hotel. Well played, Donathon. > > Still not voting for you. And now to see if the miser will give those 5 millions to charity if he got evidence that Obama was born in the USA. ---
**Author:** ![Morgenstern](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/f9ae1b/32.png) [@Morgenstern](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Morgenstern)\ **Post date:** [September 16, 2016, 10:52pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/hillary-just-lost-the-election/765663/788 "2016-09-16T22:52:45Z")
> [@levdrakon](#): > > So Trump told the media he had something juicy about Obama’s birthplace and once he got them there he put the issue to bed by simply saying “he was born in the US” then went on to praise veterans and show off his hotel. Well played, Donathon. > > Still not voting for you. You forgot the part where he blamed Clinton for starting the “birtherism” controversy. ---
**Author:** ![computergeek](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/c/e56c9b/32.png) [@computergeek](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/computergeek)\ **Post date:** [September 16, 2016, 10:54pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/hillary-just-lost-the-election/765663/789 "2016-09-16T22:54:48Z")
> [@Morgenstern](#): > > You forgot the part where he blamed Clinton for starting the “birtherism” controversy. He also didn’t apologize. Just an admission that yep, Obama was born here, like Trump made a one-time oopsie last week or something. Plus, he managed to get in some promo for his hotel. Crazy ---
**Author:** ![elucidator](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/8edcca/32.png) [@elucidator](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/elucidator)\ **Post date:** [September 16, 2016, 11:07pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/hillary-just-lost-the-election/765663/790 "2016-09-16T23:07:29Z")
It was Clinton that was doing it, he put a _stop_ to it! He said that, I’m not even making it up! ---
**Author:** ![CarnalK](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/carnalk/32/486_2.png) [@CarnalK](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/CarnalK)\ **Post date:** [September 16, 2016, 11:32pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/hillary-just-lost-the-election/765663/791 "2016-09-16T23:32:26Z")
> [@computergeek](#): > > He also didn’t apologize. Just an admission that yep, Obama was born here, like Trump made a one-time oopsie last week or something. Plus, he managed to get in some promo for his hotel. Crazy He’s not playing it as an “oopsie”. He was the one brave enough to demand an answer to this important question and he got it. ---
**Author:** ![jayjay](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/jayjay/32/6765_2.png) [@jayjay](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/jayjay)\ **Post date:** [September 16, 2016, 11:42pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/hillary-just-lost-the-election/765663/792 "2016-09-16T23:42:24Z")
Yep. He’s claiming that Hillary began the birther thing in 2008, and now he’s definitively found the answer and shut her down. Seriously. No, I am NOT kidding. ---
**Author:** ![levdrakon](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/l/49beb7/32.png) [@levdrakon](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/levdrakon)\ **Post date:** [September 17, 2016, 12:11am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/hillary-just-lost-the-election/765663/793 "2016-09-17T00:11:29Z")
> [@Morgenstern](#): > > You forgot the part where he blamed Clinton for starting the “birtherism” controversy. Well, the birther thing got started when Clinton was campaigning against Obama. So it got started \*during \*Clinton’s campaign. Close enough for Trump and his supporters. Someone should point out Trump was a Clinton supporter in '08, so if anything, he was leading the birther campaign on her behalf. ---
**Author:** ![asahi](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/asahi/32/8693_2.png) [@asahi](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/asahi)\ **Post date:** [September 17, 2016, 12:12am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/hillary-just-lost-the-election/765663/794 "2016-09-17T00:12:45Z")
As you all know I’ve been panicking but I think Donald Trump just gave Hillary a gift on this one. The media will be talking about this over the weekend. ---
**Author:** ![adaher](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/dec6dc/32.png) [@adaher](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/adaher)\ **Post date:** [September 17, 2016, 12:49am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/hillary-just-lost-the-election/765663/795 "2016-09-17T00:49:19Z")
If Trump doesn’t lose poll standing over spats with Gold Star parents or racist statements he’s not going to lose ground over the birther thing. ---
**Author:** ![inscrutable](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/i/a88e4f/32.png) [@inscrutable](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/inscrutable)\ **Post date:** [September 17, 2016, 1:12am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/hillary-just-lost-the-election/765663/796 "2016-09-17T01:12:26Z")
> [@asahi](#): > > As you all know I’ve been panicking but I think Donald Trump just gave Hillary a gift on this one. The media will be talking about this over the weekend. Exactly – they’ll be talking about Trump. ---
**Author:** ![jayjay](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/jayjay/32/6765_2.png) [@jayjay](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/jayjay)\ **Post date:** [September 17, 2016, 1:16am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/hillary-just-lost-the-election/765663/797 "2016-09-17T01:16:22Z")
> [@adaher](#): > > If Trump doesn’t lose poll standing over spats with Gold Star parents or racist statements he’s not going to lose ground over the birther thing. Well, that’s mostly because his supporters really ARE a basket of deplorables. And I ain’t pussy-footin’ around with the ridiculous 50% bullshit… ---
**Author:** ![asahi](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/asahi/32/8693_2.png) [@asahi](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/asahi)\ **Post date:** [September 17, 2016, 1:20am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/hillary-just-lost-the-election/765663/798 "2016-09-17T01:20:23Z")
> [@adaher](#): > > If Trump doesn’t lose poll standing over spats with Gold Star parents or racist statements he’s not going to lose ground over the birther thing. The best chance for a one-punch knockout will be at the debate, and it’s possible that they battle to a draw on that occasion. I agree that this isn’t a fatal blow, but it’s bad for Trump in that he had worked so hard to claw his way back into the campaign and had all the momentum if he had just thought a little harder about how to put this behind him. Instead, there’s no more talk of Hillary’s deplorables or Hillary’s health – the weekend news cycle will be mostly about Trump. He also has a tendency to keep throwing water on the grease fire when these things happen so we may not be done yet. ---
**Author:** ![Morgenstern](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/f9ae1b/32.png) [@Morgenstern](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Morgenstern)\ **Post date:** [September 17, 2016, 1:29am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/hillary-just-lost-the-election/765663/799 "2016-09-17T01:29:49Z")
> [@jayjay](#): > > Well, that’s mostly because his supporters really ARE a basket of deplorables. And I ain’t pussy-footin’ around with the ridiculous 50% bullshit… Putin, Kim Jong-il (yes, doughboy has said Trump is a good man), David Duke to name a few. ---
**Author:** ![adaher](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/dec6dc/32.png) [@adaher](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/adaher)\ **Post date:** [September 17, 2016, 1:33am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/hillary-just-lost-the-election/765663/800 "2016-09-17T01:33:15Z")
> [@asahi](#): > > The best chance for a one-punch knockout will be at the debate, and it’s possible that they battle to a draw on that occasion. I agree that this isn’t a fatal blow, but it’s bad for Trump in that he had worked so hard to claw his way back into the campaign and had all the momentum if he had just thought a little harder about how to put this behind him. Instead, there’s no more talk of Hillary’s deplorables or Hillary’s health – the weekend news cycle will be mostly about Trump. He also has a tendency to keep throwing water on the grease fire when these things happen so we may not be done yet. According to Nate, whoever is the media story loses poll standing, so if I’m Trump my goal is just to stay out of the spotlight now. Let Clinton get the headlines. ---
**Author:** ![jayjay](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/jayjay/32/6765_2.png) [@jayjay](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/jayjay)\ **Post date:** [September 17, 2016, 1:43am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/hillary-just-lost-the-election/765663/801 "2016-09-17T01:43:40Z")
> [@adaher](#): > > According to Nate, whoever is the media story loses poll standing, so if I’m Trump my goal is just to stay out of the spotlight now. Let Clinton get the headlines. Trump is constitutionally incapable of staying out of the spotlight. [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/hillary-just-lost-the-election/765663.md?page=39) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/hillary-just-lost-the-election/765663.md?page=41)