# Hillary won 6 out of 6 coin tosses in Iowa ?? **URL:** \ **Category:** Politics & Elections\ **Created:** [February 3, 2016, 12:07pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/hillary-won-6-out-of-6-coin-tosses-in-iowa/745046 "2016-02-03T12:07:00Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 1
**Author:** ![Scandic](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/ecb155/32.png) [@Scandic](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Scandic)\ **Post date:** [February 3, 2016, 12:07pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/hillary-won-6-out-of-6-coin-tosses-in-iowa/745046/1 "2016-02-03T12:07:00Z")
Coin tosses used to determine county delegates in Clinton-Sanders race in Iowa. They flipped a coin six times, and Hillary won all six?? It seams very unlikely to me.:dubious: ---
**Author:** ![Grumman](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/g/43a26b/32.png) [@Grumman](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Grumman)\ **Post date:** [February 3, 2016, 12:08pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/hillary-won-6-out-of-6-coin-tosses-in-iowa/745046/2 "2016-02-03T12:08:21Z")
They should have decided the ties with a game of chess. Or maybe Starcraft. ---
**Author:** ![steronz](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/steronz/32/11765_2.png) [@steronz](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/steronz)\ **Post date:** [February 3, 2016, 12:16pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/hillary-won-6-out-of-6-coin-tosses-in-iowa/745046/3 "2016-02-03T12:16:25Z")
I just saw that [NPR debunked this this morning](http://www.npr.org/2016/02/02/465268206/coin-toss-fact-check-no-coin-flips-did-not-win-iowa-for-hillary-clinton), I didn’t read it that closely because this is just reddit trash. > [@](#): > > Except that doesn’t tell the whole story. In fact, there were at least a dozen tiebreakers — and “Sen. Sanders won at least a handful,” an Iowa Democratic Party official told NPR. > > Gone unmentioned so far is that even if Clinton won that Miracle Six — and there were no other coin tosses — it would make little difference in the outcome. That is, in part, because of the complicated way Iowa Democrats allocate their delegates — and what was being reported on election night and what wasn’t. More details in the link. ---
**Author:** ![ElderSign](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/eldersign/32/8263_2.png) [@ElderSign](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/ElderSign)\ **Post date:** [February 3, 2016, 2:21pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/hillary-won-6-out-of-6-coin-tosses-in-iowa/745046/4 "2016-02-03T14:21:17Z")
I love how apologists continue to say “it would make little difference in the outcome” in an election that was a virtual tie (50% vs 50%, one delegate difference). Then they defend the absurd Iowa delegation rules. ---
**Author:** ![steronz](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/steronz/32/11765_2.png) [@steronz](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/steronz)\ **Post date:** [February 3, 2016, 2:35pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/hillary-won-6-out-of-6-coin-tosses-in-iowa/745046/5 "2016-02-03T14:35:16Z")
> [@ElderSign](#): > > I love how apologists continue to say “it would make little difference in the outcome” in an election that was a virtual tie (50% vs 50%, one delegate difference). But there are precinct delegates, which aggregate into county delegates, which aggregate into state delegates, which are the ones that actually matter. A coin toss to decide a precinct delegate in a county that’s already overwhelmingly leaning one way or the other is demonstrably irrelevant in the grand scheme of things. It’s all explained in the article. It may be a stupid system but that’s no reason to fabricate outrage. ---
**Author:** ![BrainGlutton](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/82dd89/32.png) [@BrainGlutton](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/BrainGlutton)\ **Post date:** [February 3, 2016, 2:45pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/hillary-won-6-out-of-6-coin-tosses-in-iowa/745046/6 "2016-02-03T14:45:59Z")
What’s so hard to believe? Hillary is fuckin’ lucky. ---
**Author:** ![Rysto](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/ecccb3/32.png) [@Rysto](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Rysto)\ **Post date:** [February 3, 2016, 3:14pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/hillary-won-6-out-of-6-coin-tosses-in-iowa/745046/7 "2016-02-03T15:14:34Z")
> **[No, Hillary Clinton did not win Iowa because of a coin flip | CNN Politics](https://www.cnn.com/2016/02/02/politics/hillary-clinton-coin-flip-iowa-bernie-sanders/index.html)** > > Hillary Clinton claimed victory in the Iowa caucuses Tuesday after topping Democratic rival Bernie Sanders by the skin-of-her-teeth margin of 49.9% to 49.6%. There's been some confusion about how much of a role -- if any -- coin flips played in... Apparently, the Democratic party has electronic records from about half of the counties (the rest phone results in). They have records of 7 coin flips. 5 were won by Saunders, one by Clinton and the last by O’Malley. There’s nothing to this coin flip story. ---
**Author:** ![beagledave](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/6de8d8/32.png) [@beagledave](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/beagledave)\ **Post date:** [February 3, 2016, 3:19pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/hillary-won-6-out-of-6-coin-tosses-in-iowa/745046/8 "2016-02-03T15:19:53Z")
> [@Rysto](#): > > [http://www.cnn.com/2016/02/02/politics/hillary-clinton-coin-flip-iowa-bernie-sanders/index.html](http://www.cnn.com/2016/02/02/politics/hillary-clinton-coin-flip-iowa-bernie-sanders/index.html) > > Apparently, the Democratic party has electronic records from about half of the counties (the rest phone results in). They have records of 7 coin flips. 5 were won by Saunders, one by Clinton and the last by O’Malley. There’s nothing to this coin flip story. We don’t even need to look at who won how many coin flips,[it doesn’t matter.](https://twitter.com/desmoinesdem/status/694394202604503041?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw) ---
**Author:** ![steronz](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/steronz/32/11765_2.png) [@steronz](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/steronz)\ **Post date:** [February 3, 2016, 3:22pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/hillary-won-6-out-of-6-coin-tosses-in-iowa/745046/9 "2016-02-03T15:22:02Z")
Like I said, it’s reddit trash. A bunch of redditors/Sanders supporters saw coin flips go in Hilary’s favor, confirmation bias took over (people who saw flips go in Sanders’ favor wouldn’t have reported it), and the rest of reddit didn’t know the difference between a precinct delegate and a state delegate (an understandable confusion, for what it’s worth, but nevertheless people shouldn’t get so excited over things before they know the whole story). ---
**Author:** ![Flyer](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/flyer/32/7298_2.png) [@Flyer](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Flyer)\ **Post date:** [February 3, 2016, 3:22pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/hillary-won-6-out-of-6-coin-tosses-in-iowa/745046/10 "2016-02-03T15:22:17Z")
> [@Scandic](#): > > Coin tosses used to determine county delegates in Clinton-Sanders race in Iowa. > > They flipped a coin six times, and Hillary won all six?? > > It seams very unlikely to me.:dubious: Here’s a tip for you – “Dice have no memory.” In other words, the fact that 5 coin tosses came out a certain way has absolutely no bearing on the next one–it still has a 50% chance of being favorable. ---
**Author:** ![RTFirefly](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/c77e96/32.png) [@RTFirefly](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/RTFirefly)\ **Post date:** [February 3, 2016, 3:54pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/hillary-won-6-out-of-6-coin-tosses-in-iowa/745046/11 "2016-02-03T15:54:35Z")
I’m glad to hear that Hillary hasn’t become one of the leads in _Rosencrantz and Guildenstern Are Dead_. ---
**Author:** ![running\_coach](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/running_coach/32/15836_2.png) [@running\_coach](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/running_coach)\ **Post date:** [February 3, 2016, 4:03pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/hillary-won-6-out-of-6-coin-tosses-in-iowa/745046/12 "2016-02-03T16:03:51Z")
> [@Flyer](#): > > Here’s a tip for you – “Dice have no memory.” In other words, the fact that 5 coin tosses came out a certain way has absolutely no bearing on the next one–it still has a 50% chance of being favorable. But going 6 in a row is only 1.56%. **steronz** linked to a NPR story that bebunked the 6 0f 6 anyway. ---
**Author:** ![Damuri\_Ajashi](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/898d66/32.png) [@Damuri\_Ajashi](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Damuri_Ajashi)\ **Post date:** [February 3, 2016, 4:29pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/hillary-won-6-out-of-6-coin-tosses-in-iowa/745046/13 "2016-02-03T16:29:58Z")
> [@Flyer](#): > > Here’s a tip for you – “Dice have no memory.” In other words, the fact that 5 coin tosses came out a certain way has absolutely no bearing on the next one–it still has a 50% chance of being favorable. OK, we will flip a coin 6 times and if they all come up heads, you give me $1000 and if they don’t then you give me $1000. The chances of 6 coin tosses going the same way are like 1 in 64. With that said, Hillary legitimately won Iowa by a slim margin 9and would have without the benefit of a few coin tosses). But a win is a win and she won. ---
**Author:** ![Procrustus](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/procrustus/32/2994_2.png) [@Procrustus](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Procrustus)\ **Post date:** [February 3, 2016, 4:36pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/hillary-won-6-out-of-6-coin-tosses-in-iowa/745046/14 "2016-02-03T16:36:28Z")
> [@Scandic](#): > > Coin tosses used to determine county delegates in Clinton-Sanders race in Iowa. > > They flipped a coin six times, and Hillary won all six?? > > It seams very unlikely to me.:dubious: As Ted Cruz wold say, “To God be the glory.” ---
**Author:** ![Drunky\_Smurf](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/drunky_smurf/32/449_2.png) [@Drunky\_Smurf](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Drunky_Smurf)\ **Post date:** [February 3, 2016, 4:57pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/hillary-won-6-out-of-6-coin-tosses-in-iowa/745046/15 "2016-02-03T16:57:34Z")
> [@BrainGlutton](#): > > What’s so hard to believe? Hillary is fuckin’ lucky. Seeing as how this was debunked in this thread two hours before you posted you went ahead and posted this anyways? Well all I’ve got to say to that is, no she fuckin’ isn’t. ---
**Author:** ![Chronos](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/chronos/32/134_2.png) [@Chronos](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Chronos)\ **Post date:** [February 3, 2016, 5:00pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/hillary-won-6-out-of-6-coin-tosses-in-iowa/745046/16 "2016-02-03T17:00:52Z")
The chances are 1 in 32, not 1 in 64. A single coin flip always goes the same way as itself. ---
**Author:** ![RTFirefly](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/c77e96/32.png) [@RTFirefly](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/RTFirefly)\ **Post date:** [February 3, 2016, 5:07pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/hillary-won-6-out-of-6-coin-tosses-in-iowa/745046/17 "2016-02-03T17:07:59Z")
> [@Chronos](#): > > The chances are 1 in 32, not 1 in 64. A single coin flip always goes the same way as itself. To be precise, the chance is 1/32 that _one_ of the two candidates would get six out of six, without being specific about which one. Like you say, the first coin flip will agree with itself, then the chance is 1/32 that the next five will agree with it. ---
**Author:** ![amarinth](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/3be4f8/32.png) [@amarinth](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/amarinth)\ **Post date:** [February 3, 2016, 5:25pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/hillary-won-6-out-of-6-coin-tosses-in-iowa/745046/18 "2016-02-03T17:25:48Z")
I kept wanting to scream “it’s a caucus, not an election! It’s not even a primary!” at the news yesterday. They work completely differently. I realize that it’s a lot easier to say “so-and-so won the caucus,” than to try to explain county delegate allocation and the party nomination system. But it’s really inaccurate and misrepresents what actually happened and what the results actually mean on every level. ---
**Author:** ![kayaker](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/kayaker/32/441_2.png) [@kayaker](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/kayaker)\ **Post date:** [February 3, 2016, 5:40pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/hillary-won-6-out-of-6-coin-tosses-in-iowa/745046/19 "2016-02-03T17:40:13Z")
> [@BrainGlutton](#): > > What’s so hard to believe? Hillary is fuckin’ lucky. You know what they say, unlucky in love, lucky in coin tosses. ---
**Author:** ![Steve\_MB](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/steve_mb/32/5339_2.png) [@Steve\_MB](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Steve_MB)\ **Post date:** [February 3, 2016, 6:22pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/hillary-won-6-out-of-6-coin-tosses-in-iowa/745046/20 "2016-02-03T18:22:55Z")
_(in the voice of Richard Moll as Two-Face from Batman: The Animated Series)_ “…Coin comes up good side, we talk it over. Coin comes up bad side, and we see if that sorry sandpit you call a country can glow in the dark…” [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/hillary-won-6-out-of-6-coin-tosses-in-iowa/745046.md?page=2)