# Hillary's lead over Sanders "nearly vanishes". **URL:** \ **Category:** Politics & Elections\ **Created:** [January 11, 2016, 5:48pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/hillarys-lead-over-sanders-nearly-vanishes/742833 "2016-01-11T17:48:57Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 14
**Author:** ![SlackerInc](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/slackerinc/32/275_2.png) [@SlackerInc](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/SlackerInc)\ **Post date:** [January 22, 2016, 8:34pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/hillarys-lead-over-sanders-nearly-vanishes/742833/261 "2016-01-22T20:34:53Z")
> [@BobLibDem](#): > > Care to elaborate? He’s basically an FDR Democrat. I see this kind of talk about FDR frequently from the same people on my FB feed who love Bernie, ThinkProgress, etc. It strikes me as ahistorical, unless it is being graded on a curve, like “for the 1930s…”? ---
**Author:** ![Qin\_Shi\_Huangdi](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/q/f04885/32.png) [@Qin\_Shi\_Huangdi](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Qin_Shi_Huangdi)\ **Post date:** [January 22, 2016, 9:13pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/hillarys-lead-over-sanders-nearly-vanishes/742833/262 "2016-01-22T21:13:09Z")
> [@SlackerInc](#): > > I am a critic of capitalism, and feel it should be kept on a short leash. But I am not sure why Wall Street is singled out for abuse. They are but one cog in the vastness of capitalism. Because 1) they don’t produce something or provide a service thus making them a parasitical component of the economy, 2) they’ve ballooned to wield disproportionate power in the economy in the past generation or so, and 3) they have immense power to bring down the economy compared to any other sector. ---
**Author:** ![SlackerInc](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/slackerinc/32/275_2.png) [@SlackerInc](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/SlackerInc)\ **Post date:** [January 22, 2016, 9:28pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/hillarys-lead-over-sanders-nearly-vanishes/742833/263 "2016-01-22T21:28:26Z")
How about insurance? In both cases, they provide important functions so are not actually parasitical (advertising is more so) but their functions could and should ideally be taken over by the government. ---
**Author:** ![Qin\_Shi\_Huangdi](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/q/f04885/32.png) [@Qin\_Shi\_Huangdi](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Qin_Shi_Huangdi)\ **Post date:** [January 22, 2016, 9:31pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/hillarys-lead-over-sanders-nearly-vanishes/742833/264 "2016-01-22T21:31:05Z")
> [@SlackerInc](#): > > How about insurance? In both cases, they provide important functions so are not actually parasitical (advertising is more so) but their functions could and should ideally be taken over by the government. A lot of the time, the financial and insurance sectors along with real estate are lumped together in the FIRE sector of the economy. ---
**Author:** ![SlackerInc](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/slackerinc/32/275_2.png) [@SlackerInc](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/SlackerInc)\ **Post date:** [January 22, 2016, 10:43pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/hillarys-lead-over-sanders-nearly-vanishes/742833/265 "2016-01-22T22:43:00Z")
Not when people chant “Wall Street, Wall Street”. How many major insurance companies are on Wall Street? (And maybe there are some; so before you list them, what I really mean is how many do people _think of_ as being on Wall Street? ---
**Author:** ![Jayhawker\_Soule](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/j/57b2e6/32.png) [@Jayhawker\_Soule](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Jayhawker_Soule)\ **Post date:** [January 22, 2016, 11:00pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/hillarys-lead-over-sanders-nearly-vanishes/742833/266 "2016-01-22T23:00:53Z")
> [@Morgenstern](#): > > It’s scary that Sanders is getting a lead on Clinton in the polls. If Sanders gets the nomination, I definitely will not vote for him. i’ll write in Satan or something. Joseph de Maistre wrote: _“Every nation gets the government it deserves.”_ Have fun with Satan. I’m voting for Bernie as long as possible. ---
**Author:** ![Jayhawker\_Soule](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/j/57b2e6/32.png) [@Jayhawker\_Soule](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Jayhawker_Soule)\ **Post date:** [January 22, 2016, 11:04pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/hillarys-lead-over-sanders-nearly-vanishes/742833/267 "2016-01-22T23:04:12Z")
> [@Morgenstern](#): > > He comes across as way too old and senile to me. What a pathetically ignorant comment. What, precisely, makes him “sound too old,” and how is your brand of ‘youth’ worthy of anything other than contempt? ---
**Author:** ![SlackerInc](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/slackerinc/32/275_2.png) [@SlackerInc](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/SlackerInc)\ **Post date:** [January 22, 2016, 11:23pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/hillarys-lead-over-sanders-nearly-vanishes/742833/268 "2016-01-22T23:23:37Z")
> [@Jayhawker\_Soule](#): > > What a pathetically ignorant comment. What, precisely, makes him “sound too old,” and how is your brand of ‘youth’ worthy of anything other than contempt? He cups his hand to his ear and asks people to speak up, fails to modulate his voice, and then there’s [this](https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/the-fix/wp/2015/07/22/7-times-bernie-sanders-reminds-us-of-our-grumpy-grandpa/) (mainly #1). ---
**Author:** ![Morgenstern](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/f9ae1b/32.png) [@Morgenstern](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Morgenstern)\ **Post date:** [January 23, 2016, 12:50am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/hillarys-lead-over-sanders-nearly-vanishes/742833/269 "2016-01-23T00:50:06Z")
> [@Jayhawker\_Soule](#): > > What a pathetically ignorant comment. What, precisely, makes him “sound too old,” and how is your brand of ‘youth’ worthy of anything other than contempt? Settle down, I don’t want you to have a stroke before Bernie, and that’s probably imminent at his age. ---
**Author:** ![Qin\_Shi\_Huangdi](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/q/f04885/32.png) [@Qin\_Shi\_Huangdi](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Qin_Shi_Huangdi)\ **Post date:** [January 23, 2016, 2:45am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/hillarys-lead-over-sanders-nearly-vanishes/742833/270 "2016-01-23T02:45:56Z")
> [@SlackerInc](#): > > Not when people chant “Wall Street, Wall Street”. How many major insurance companies are on Wall Street? (And maybe there are some; so before you list them, what I really mean is how many do people _think of_ as being on Wall Street? So what? It’s a shorthand simplifier. ---
**Author:** ![SlackerInc](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/slackerinc/32/275_2.png) [@SlackerInc](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/SlackerInc)\ **Post date:** [January 23, 2016, 7:20am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/hillarys-lead-over-sanders-nearly-vanishes/742833/271 "2016-01-23T07:20:18Z")
Not a good move for Bernie to [dismiss](http://www.cnn.com/2016/01/20/politics/clinton-sanders-establishment-endorsements/) HRC (er, the gay rights group, that is) and Planned Parenthood as “the establishment”. Sounds churlish, and I think that will be a sour note for many of the young women he had been looking like he was doing well at seducing away from Hillary. ---
**Author:** ![Velocity](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/velocity/32/18006_2.png) [@Velocity](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Velocity)\ **Post date:** [January 23, 2016, 7:23am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/hillarys-lead-over-sanders-nearly-vanishes/742833/272 "2016-01-23T07:23:09Z")
It’s ironic that the candidate that inspires the most fervent support within the Democratic Party today is not a young, or female, or racial-minority politician, but…an old white man. ---
**Author:** ![Velocity](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/velocity/32/18006_2.png) [@Velocity](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Velocity)\ **Post date:** [January 23, 2016, 7:24am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/hillarys-lead-over-sanders-nearly-vanishes/742833/273 "2016-01-23T07:24:46Z")
> [@Morgenstern](#): > > A Trump v. Sanders election scares me to death. It wold be a landslide Sanders victory. ---
**Author:** ![adaher](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/dec6dc/32.png) [@adaher](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/adaher)\ **Post date:** [January 23, 2016, 7:29am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/hillarys-lead-over-sanders-nearly-vanishes/742833/274 "2016-01-23T07:29:20Z")
> [@SlackerInc](#): > > Not a good move for Bernie to [dismiss](http://www.cnn.com/2016/01/20/politics/clinton-sanders-establishment-endorsements/) HRC (er, the gay rights group, that is) and Planned Parenthood as “the establishment”. Sounds churlish, and I think that will be a sour note for many of the young women he had been looking like he was doing well at seducing away from Hillary. Bad way of putting it, would have been better to say that those groups are one issue groups that tend to back the establishment candidates for political reasons. Meanwhile, David Brock may have changed sides, but he sure hasn’t changed his stripes: [http://thehill.com/blogs/blog-briefing-room/news/266666-clinton-ally-black-lives-dont-matter-much-to-sanders](http://thehill.com/blogs/blog-briefing-room/news/266666-clinton-ally-black-lives-dont-matter-much-to-sanders) > [@](#): > > David Brock, a longtime ally of the Democratic presidential candidate Hillary Clinton, blasted rival Bernie Sanders on Thursday, suggesting he doesn’t care about black lives. > > Brock, who heads several groups aiding Clinton’s bid, offered the accusation while criticizing a new ad from Sanders that Brock said was a “significant slight to the Democratic base.” > > “From this ad it seems black lives don’t matter much to Bernie Sanders,” Brock told The Associated Press. > > A Sanders spokesman shot back Thursday at Brock, describing him to the Associated Press as a “mud-slinging, right-wing extremist” decades ago who is now “lying about Sen. Sanders.” ---
**Author:** ![SlackerInc](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/slackerinc/32/275_2.png) [@SlackerInc](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/SlackerInc)\ **Post date:** [January 23, 2016, 7:36am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/hillarys-lead-over-sanders-nearly-vanishes/742833/275 "2016-01-23T07:36:45Z")
What’s funny is that “America” ad, while definitely portraying “overwhelmingly white” crowds, actually looks to me to have assembled every shot available of Bernie with a brownish person. Also every time Bernie has ever actually smiled. ---
**Author:** ![DSeid](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/dseid/32/20194_2.png) [@DSeid](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DSeid)\ **Post date:** [January 25, 2016, 9:48pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/hillarys-lead-over-sanders-nearly-vanishes/742833/276 "2016-01-25T21:48:04Z")
> [@DSeid](#): > > I gotta say I am entertained by how all over the place polls are right now, this close to it. > > NH, last three polls, all with a Sanders lead, but with a spread of 24 points. (+3, +6, and +27 Bernie) > > Iowa, last three polls, split two with Hillary ahead to one for Bernie, with a spread of 29 points! (Hillary +21, +9, and -8) > > A lot for both states will ride on those who still are not sure who they will vote for (in NH for example, according to that one poll that shows Bernie completely running away with it, only 52% are sure of which way they will vote), what characteristic they think is most important that day, and who actually shows. A [more informed take](http://www.nytimes.com/2016/01/26/upshot/bernie-sanders-is-very-dependent-on-infrequent-voters.html?ref=politics&_r=0) on why the extreme disparity in these poll results, at least looking at Iowa: polling technique. The difference is that polls that use “random digit dialing — a kind of poll that contacts all types of adults, including those who are unregistered” more often put Sanders ahead but those that use registered voters only (or those who have previously caucused, or those who are definitely going to), not. Yes it breaks down into age demographic, with Sanders’ popularity among younger Democrats giving him a lead in random dialing polls but losing among the registered, previous, and definitely planning to vote, voters. Will he get them to vote on caucus day? Or not? ---
**Author:** ![SlackerInc](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/slackerinc/32/275_2.png) [@SlackerInc](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/SlackerInc)\ **Post date:** [January 25, 2016, 9:50pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/hillarys-lead-over-sanders-nearly-vanishes/742833/277 "2016-01-25T21:50:57Z")
The [gold standard](http://www.politico.com/story/2015/12/ann-selzer-iowa-pollster-216151) in Iowa is Ann Selzer’s polling. All others can be safely ignored. ---
**Author:** ![DSeid](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/dseid/32/20194_2.png) [@DSeid](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DSeid)\ **Post date:** [January 25, 2016, 10:46pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/hillarys-lead-over-sanders-nearly-vanishes/742833/278 "2016-01-25T22:46:50Z")
If one believes that then the last Iowa result is +2 Clinton … close. And Cruz by +3. Personally I’ll guess the spreads will be bigger than that for each. But Ann Selzer I aint. ---
**Author:** ![Morgenstern](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/f9ae1b/32.png) [@Morgenstern](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Morgenstern)\ **Post date:** [January 25, 2016, 11:12pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/hillarys-lead-over-sanders-nearly-vanishes/742833/279 "2016-01-25T23:12:43Z")
Here’s where the money is. 2016 US PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION - NEXT PRESIDENT OF THE UNITED STATES Odds as of January 25 at **Bovada** Hillary Clinton EVEN Donald Trump +200 Bernie Sanders +350 Marco Rubio +1000 Ted Cruz +1400 Jeb Bush +3300 Chris Christie +5000 John Kasich +5000 Carly Fiorina +12500 Ben Carson +20000 ---
**Author:** ![SlackerInc](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/slackerinc/32/275_2.png) [@SlackerInc](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/SlackerInc)\ **Post date:** [January 26, 2016, 12:31am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/hillarys-lead-over-sanders-nearly-vanishes/742833/280 "2016-01-26T00:31:33Z")
Ooh, can one bet against Trump with a similar line? [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/hillarys-lead-over-sanders-nearly-vanishes/742833.md?page=13) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/hillarys-lead-over-sanders-nearly-vanishes/742833.md?page=15)