# Hispanic voters and the 2016 election **URL:** \ **Category:** Politics & Elections\ **Created:** [August 26, 2015, 6:17pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/hispanic-voters-and-the-2016-election/728970 "2015-08-26T18:17:20Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 4
**Author:** ![Voyager](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/voyager/32/133_2.png) [@Voyager](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Voyager)\ **Post date:** [August 28, 2015, 7:53pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/hispanic-voters-and-the-2016-election/728970/61 "2015-08-28T19:53:45Z")
> [@BobLibDem](#): > > Have you been in a coma? > > “Anchor baby” = Mexican-American slur > > “Welfare queen” = dog whistle for “those lazy blacks are living high on the hog on YOUR money, whitey!” > > “Tough on crime” = “we’ll keep incarcerating blacks for minor offenses” > > “Cut taxes” = "we’ll cut income taxes on the wealthy while we raise sales, cigarette, and liquor taxes that hit low income (and thus minority) people disproportionately. > > “Cut spending” = “we’ll let the roads crumble, lest some of you poor folk earn an honest living in construction” > > I don’t think the Hubbell telescope can find the planet on which Republican policies benefit the working class. You forgot “voter fraud” - make it as difficult as possible for minorities to vote. Kind of backfired on them last election. ---
**Author:** ![adaher](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/dec6dc/32.png) [@adaher](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/adaher)\ **Post date:** [August 29, 2015, 2:38am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/hispanic-voters-and-the-2016-election/728970/62 "2015-08-29T02:38:06Z")
I’ll see your “welfare queens” and raise you “bitter clingers”. ---
**Author:** ![iiandyiiii](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/iiandyiiii/32/7924_2.png) [@iiandyiiii](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/iiandyiiii)\ **Post date:** [August 29, 2015, 2:51am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/hispanic-voters-and-the-2016-election/728970/63 "2015-08-29T02:51:23Z")
> [@adaher](#): > > I’ll see your “welfare queens” and raise you “bitter clingers”. Them you’d lose, since Obama was trying to defend and explain those who oppose him, rather than blame the problems of the country on them. ---
**Author:** ![adaher](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/dec6dc/32.png) [@adaher](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/adaher)\ **Post date:** [August 29, 2015, 3:19am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/hispanic-voters-and-the-2016-election/728970/64 "2015-08-29T03:19:38Z")
Wouldn’t lose by a long shot. Democrats ended up accepting the argument and reformed welfare. It kinda diminishes your racism claims when you say, “That’s racist!”, lose, and then concede the issue three elections later. ---
**Author:** ![iiandyiiii](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/iiandyiiii/32/7924_2.png) [@iiandyiiii](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/iiandyiiii)\ **Post date:** [August 29, 2015, 3:24am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/hispanic-voters-and-the-2016-election/728970/65 "2015-08-29T03:24:20Z")
> [@adaher](#): > > Wouldn’t lose by a long shot. Democrats ended up accepting the argument and reformed welfare. There was a compromise, but that doesn’t mean that the Democratic party “accepted” the welfare queen myth. This is kind of a silly game of gotcha. The best arbiters, by far, of anti-black racism in America have always been and still are black Americans… they’re the best source of information on which party is more opposed to their interests. ---
**Author:** ![adaher](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/dec6dc/32.png) [@adaher](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/adaher)\ **Post date:** [August 29, 2015, 3:33am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/hispanic-voters-and-the-2016-election/728970/66 "2015-08-29T03:33:51Z")
It wasn’t a myth. People were making welfare a lifestyle. The reform put an end to that. Democrats have a habit of crying racism whenever they lose, then promise to implement the same policies they decried as racist once they get tired of losing. ---
**Author:** ![Little\_Nemo](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/little_nemo/32/3120_2.png) [@Little\_Nemo](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Little_Nemo)\ **Post date:** [August 29, 2015, 3:43am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/hispanic-voters-and-the-2016-election/728970/67 "2015-08-29T03:43:18Z")
> [@adaher](#): > > Here’s the reason why Democrats could end up being tarred as the anti-white party: Saying all races are equal isn’t anti-white. Although admittedly there are some white people who feel they are entitled to superior status and mere equality is an insult. ---
**Author:** ![iiandyiiii](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/iiandyiiii/32/7924_2.png) [@iiandyiiii](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/iiandyiiii)\ **Post date:** [August 29, 2015, 4:17am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/hispanic-voters-and-the-2016-election/728970/68 "2015-08-29T04:17:21Z")
> [@adaher](#): > > It wasn’t a myth. People were making welfare a lifestyle. Very few, if any. ---
**Author:** ![adaher](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/dec6dc/32.png) [@adaher](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/adaher)\ **Post date:** [August 29, 2015, 6:05am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/hispanic-voters-and-the-2016-election/728970/69 "2015-08-29T06:05:22Z")
Must have been a lot considering how many fewer people are on it now. ---
**Author:** ![Bridget\_Burke](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/7cd45c/32.png) [@Bridget\_Burke](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Bridget_Burke)\ **Post date:** [August 29, 2015, 6:34am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/hispanic-voters-and-the-2016-election/728970/70 "2015-08-29T06:34:51Z")
> [@adaher](#): > > It wasn’t a myth. People were making welfare a lifestyle. The reform put an end to that. Democrats have a habit of crying racism whenever they lose, then promise to implement the same policies they decried as racist once they get tired of losing. So–the subject of this thread is “Hispanic voters and the 2016 election.” **adaher** has expended considerable effort to change the subject. As he does, so, so often. Whenever things are looking bad for his side. ---
**Author:** ![adaher](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/dec6dc/32.png) [@adaher](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/adaher)\ **Post date:** [August 29, 2015, 9:45am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/hispanic-voters-and-the-2016-election/728970/71 "2015-08-29T09:45:12Z")
WEll, we established early on that Hispanic voters can’t affect the outcome of the election. ---
**Author:** ![GIGObuster](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/gigobuster/32/421_2.png) [@GIGObuster](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/GIGObuster)\ **Post date:** [August 29, 2015, 12:53pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/hispanic-voters-and-the-2016-election/728970/72 "2015-08-29T12:53:04Z")
> [@adaher](#): > > WEll, we established early on that Hispanic voters can’t affect the outcome of the election. Yeah, never-mind that recent elections are usually close, the flaw in your idea was even in the cite you made. > [@](#): > > On the other hand, Republicans would have to win 49 percent of the Hispanic vote to win the popular vote (with other vote shares and turnout rates being equal to 2012), but they would still lose the Electoral College, 289-249. Republicans would have to improve to 63 percent of the Hispanic vote before they would win the Electoral College. This is, incidentally, similar to findings from FiveThirtyEight in 2013. It is really naive to think that if Trump is the Republican nominee that it will not male the Hispanics more motivated to vote, as noted Trump has a -51 rate among Hispanics. And then what you cited is only one model. > **[GOP Win Will Need More Than 40 Percent Of Latino 2016 Vote, Says Study](https://www.nbcnews.com/news/latino/gop-2016-win-will-need-more-40-percent-latino-vote-n394006)** > > The Republican nominee selected to run for president in 2016 will need to get a higher share of Latino votes than in the past - as high as almost half > [@](#): > > **GOP 2016 Win Will Need More Than 40 Percent Of Latino Vote, Says Study** > > The Republican nominee selected to run for president in 2016 will need to get a higher share of Latino votes than in the past - as high as almost half in some key battleground states, according to a new analysis by Latino Decisions. > > That’s a high mountain to climb for the Republican Party considering it’s twice the percentage that Mitt Romney received when he ran as the Republican presidential candidate in 2012. Back then, Romney received just 23 percent of the Latino vote. > > Even if the Republican Party wins 60 percent of the white vote—which hasn’t done in a presidential election since 1988—the Republican presidential nominee would need to get 42 percent and in another scenario as high as 47 percent of Latino votes in order to win the popular vote, the study finds. In 2012, Romney got 59 percent of the white vote. > > The analysis was conducted for America’s Voice, a group that advocates for immigration reform. ---
**Author:** ![iiandyiiii](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/iiandyiiii/32/7924_2.png) [@iiandyiiii](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/iiandyiiii)\ **Post date:** [August 29, 2015, 2:28pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/hispanic-voters-and-the-2016-election/728970/73 "2015-08-29T14:28:00Z")
> [@adaher](#): > > Must have been a lot considering how many fewer people are on it now. No. ---
**Author:** ![adaher](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/dec6dc/32.png) [@adaher](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/adaher)\ **Post date:** [August 30, 2015, 4:57am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/hispanic-voters-and-the-2016-election/728970/74 "2015-08-30T04:57:40Z")
Gigo, while winning the popular vote is important to me, the GOP would actually need 60% or more of the Latino vote to win the electoral vote assuming all else remains the same. Or, they could lose EVERY Latino vote and still win the electoral vote if they just win 4% more of the white vote. The same goes for Democrats. They could win 100% of the Latino vote, or they could just win 1% more of the white vote, or they could turn out African-Americans at the same rates as 2008 and 2012. There is no plausible strategy for winning the 2016 election that revolves around Latino voters. They are almost completely irrelevant. ---
**Author:** ![GIGObuster](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/gigobuster/32/421_2.png) [@GIGObuster](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/GIGObuster)\ **Post date:** [August 30, 2015, 5:01am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/hispanic-voters-and-the-2016-election/728970/75 "2015-08-30T05:01:00Z")
> [@adaher](#): > > Gigo, while winning the popular vote is important to me, the GOP would actually need 60% or more of the Latino vote to win the electoral vote assuming all else remains the same. Or, they could lose EVERY Latino vote and still win the electoral vote if they just win 4% more of the white vote. And as noted, that extra 4% is less likely. > [@adaher](#): > > The same goes for Democrats. They could win 100% of the Latino vote, or they could just win 1% more of the white vote, or they could turn out African-Americans at the same rates as 2008 and 2012. > > There is no plausible strategy for winning the 2016 election that revolves around Latino voters. They are almost completely irrelevant. As pointed before your imagination is what is telling you that it is not plausible, and it is telling you that because it is Mr. anti Hispanic Trump the one that you will have to carry water for in the general election, most likely. It will be an effort that I **not** would like to do if the situation was reversed. But I know that you can do it. 🙂 ---
**Author:** ![adaher](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/dec6dc/32.png) [@adaher](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/adaher)\ **Post date:** [August 30, 2015, 5:08am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/hispanic-voters-and-the-2016-election/728970/76 "2015-08-30T05:08:24Z")
> [@GIGObuster](#): > > And as noted, that extra 4% is less likely. It’s easier for the GOP to win 100% of Latinos than 4% more whites? > [@](#): > > As pointed before your imagination is what is telling you that it is not plausible, and it is telling you that because it is Mr. anti Hispanic Trump the one that you will have to carry water for in the general election, most likely. I will not be carrying water for Mr. Trump should he win the nomination. Which is why it would be nice if the Democrats could give me an alternative. Anyone in the current field but Clinton is fine. ---
**Author:** ![GIGObuster](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/gigobuster/32/421_2.png) [@GIGObuster](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/GIGObuster)\ **Post date:** [August 30, 2015, 5:14am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/hispanic-voters-and-the-2016-election/728970/77 "2015-08-30T05:14:31Z")
> [@adaher](#): > > It’s easier for the GOP to win 100% of Latinos than 4% more whites? No I’m not saying that silliness. The GOP can not do that with Latinos, The advantage in thus case is for the Democrats. And I do remember that in the past presidential elections the number of white votes is getting a bit lower on each election, add to that then that if Trump is the nominee there will be many reasonable Republicans that will not vote for him and that is why that extra 4% is not likely. > [@adaher](#): > > I will not be carrying water for Mr. Trump should he win the nomination. Which is why it would be nice if the Democrats could give me an alternative. Anyone in the current field but Clinton is fine. Oh then this will be better then, if Trump is the nominee I will see you after November. ---
**Author:** ![adaher](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/dec6dc/32.png) [@adaher](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/adaher)\ **Post date:** [August 30, 2015, 5:19am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/hispanic-voters-and-the-2016-election/728970/78 "2015-08-30T05:19:29Z")
If Trump is the nominee you’ll see a Democratic President. But if Trump isn’t the nominee, winning 65% of white votes is not out of the realm of possibility. ---
**Author:** ![GIGObuster](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/gigobuster/32/421_2.png) [@GIGObuster](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/GIGObuster)\ **Post date:** [August 30, 2015, 5:33am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/hispanic-voters-and-the-2016-election/728970/79 "2015-08-30T05:33:08Z")
> [@adaher](#): > > If Trump is the nominee you’ll see a Democratic President. But if Trump isn’t the nominee, winning 65% of white votes is not out of the realm of possibility. Indeed, but remember that you were talking about irrelevance; in reality as I pointed before Hispanics are relevant, it just so happens that they are more relevant to the Democrats, and you also were assuming numbers by ignoring the elephant in the room. As Time magazine had in the text of the cover with Trump’s mug: \*\*Deal with it. \*\* Because otherwise you will not even have the possibilities that you are wishing for. ---
**Author:** ![adaher](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/dec6dc/32.png) [@adaher](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/adaher)\ **Post date:** [August 30, 2015, 5:39am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/hispanic-voters-and-the-2016-election/728970/80 "2015-08-30T05:39:28Z")
Even if Trump is the nominee, Latino voters aren’t going to be the ones to stop him. White and black voters still decide who wins elections in this country, white voters by swinging back and forth and black voters by turning out or not turning out. Latinos are still too concentrated in states that don’t matter in the Electoral College. And really, if you take out California and New Mexico, Latino voters don’t even vote all that Democratic. In Texas and Florida, where Latinos COULD make a difference, they don’t seem all that inclined to back Democrats in as large numbers. [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/hispanic-voters-and-the-2016-election/728970.md?page=3) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/hispanic-voters-and-the-2016-election/728970.md?page=5)