Um…ok.
Well, yes…that’s always the case. But the fact that there were large blocks of people who vote a certain way isn’t really subject to belief, but you believe what you like. It’s funny that you don’t believe this, but believe the only reason some Hispanics would vote this way is ‘virtue signaling’. 
Or, perhaps, the Democrats are making the grave error of assuming homogeneity of thought based upon crude and arbitrary groupings of individuals. Perhaps there is a more succinct term for that.
Or…maybe that being the lone Hispanic (which I have been btw) in an area, town, office, whatever, isn’t perceived as a threat or an issue or even something that is even noticed, by and large, anymore. That the need to be ‘virtue signaling’ our white betters or Republican (or Democrat) overlords isn’t something that we do or think about, except in the minds of folks who think they need some reason for some segment of us to vote differently than they think we should.
I’m old enough to remember when this wasn’t the case (when having a white girlfriend/boyfriend/spouse was an issue)…and notice when it’s no longer an issue, at least mostly. I see it as kind of like being Italian…that used to be a huge thing. Today? Not so much. Or Irish…the same. Or Eastern European. Or whatever.
(sorry, really worked up over the whole virtue-signaling thingy, as that is such an insult IMHO)
Yeah, I haven’t denied or questioned that.
What do you mean, “countered by”? Are you saying that the absolute-number increase in Hispanic Republican votes in 2018 was larger than the absolute-number increase in Hispanic Democratic votes? Cite?
What’s inconsistent about it? Are you sure you’re not mixing up percentages vs. absolute numbers?
To the contrary. What I’m saying is that the proper way to measure whether or not “The extreme xenophobic hostility erupting in large parts of the Trump GOP slowed or reversed some of that shift temporarily” is via percentages, not via absolute numbers, and that your introduction of absolute numbers is a distraction.
If a higher percentage of Hispanic voters supported the Republicans in 2018 than 2016, then it’s not correct to assert that “The extreme xenophobic hostility erupting in large parts of the Trump GOP slowed or reversed some of that shift temporarily”.
I didn’t say it was the only reason.
Hmm, I think that’s a misleadingly limited way to look at it. If, for example, a group of 100 Hispanic voters includes 80 Democrats and 20 Republicans, and some political controversy results in turning out 70 new Hispanic Democratic voters and 30 new Republican ones, then sure, the percentage of Republicans in the total of Hispanic voters has increased, but the actual voting power of that group in absolute numbers is stronger for the Democrats. (Leaving out the issue of whether and how the controversy has turned out additional voters among non-Hispanics.)
It’s certainly a legitimate question how useful it is to categorize “Hispanics” as a political block. The point of any such categorization is to identify groups that are more-or-less collectively “moveable” through distinct messaging or outreach approaches. Hispanics clearly don’t demonstrate the same level of political cohesion as African Americans, but they also aren’t at the point of “Catholics” as a block who have become increasingly simply reflective of the general voting population.
Regardless, I think it’s fair to say that “reaching Hispanic voters” takes a lot more nuance and differentiation than just airing some campaign ads in Spanish.
Fair enough as an overarching point. Sort of like white voters as a block…you can’t really characterize them that way and have to look at specific demographics and population groups. This wasn’t always the case with Hispanic voters, as they DID vote as a block, by and large (which is what sparked this entire discussion IMHO, and they were taken for granted because of this, again, IMHO), but that’s simply not the case anymore, and it’s not about virtue signaling or some other dippy reason(s).
Voting power of the group is not the correct way to look at it.
The question is whether or not there was an “extreme xenophobic hostility erupting in large parts of the Trump GOP” which “slowed or reversed some of that shift temporarily”. If that were correct, then the percentage of Hispanic support for Republicans should have decreased or at least not continued to increase.
I don’t think increased turnout in general (whether or not due to “the controversy”) should be left out, if you’re going to look at absolute numbers. But again, I don’t think absolute numbers are the correct way to look at it for the particular question we’re discussing here.
Well, I think this discussion has showed that that claim is debatable.
That’s one way of interpreting the question, sure.
A lot of hispanics already thought of themselves as “white” in their home countries. There is a strong backlash from upper class hispanics of mostly european decent when they come to the US and realize they are being lumped in with poor migrant workers. They sure as hell don’t consider themselves to be one of the people that worked for them as maids their entire lives. South American countries specially are VERY racist, and people who’ve been in the upper levels of society their whole lives cannot handle the downgrade so they pull back strongly to the other side. I’ve seen this happen constantly with my family and friends when emigrating from Peru to the US.
Is it “virtue-signaling” if you really are of that political/ideological/religious alignment?
And as DigitalC points out, our criollo social-dominant group is a match for any other in attitude as to who needs to “know their place”.
One aspect of that, though, that tended to be overlooked, was that by and large through most of the past the “Hispanic Bloc” was really a bunch of blocs in distinct locations of dominance by a particular Latino community. Puerto Ricans in New York, Connecticut, Philly. Dominicans in New York. Distinct Mexican-American communities in the Southwest further distinguished between long established and relative newcomer. Central Americans in and around DC. All of whom were rolling our eyes for decades at attempts by national parties to do a simple lumping.
Maybe we should be thinking about the expected rate of increase?
Back when the GOP was the GOP of the Georges Bush there was a lot of organizational push to reach out to the Latino, which even before Trump’s arrival had sort of been left by the wayside. However, the generational trends were already in motion and remained in motion.
So you have people who may have even expected a faster rise in Hispanic Republicans and feel the Trump Age muted that – but the rise itself continued. What’s likely is that we could not reliably plot what would have been the continuing rate of increase in the speed of realignment, absent Trump or even absent the Tea Party.
(Of course, meanwhile I think there are still a few people out there who insist on clinging to the hope of the “demographic doom” of the Republicans…)
I am skeptical. Not about whether what you’re saying is true of upper class Hispanics who immigrate to the US, but about whether upper class Hispanics are a high enough percentage of the immigrant population to impact the overall numbers in any significant way.
In general, upper class people - who stand to lose a decent life where they are - are significantly less likely to emigrate than are lower class people who have a tough situation already and are more ready to take a shot elsewhere. This applies to the current wave of Hispanic immigration as well as to previous waves of immigration (Italians, Irish etc. etc.).
The facts do not support this notion.
John McCain got less of the Hispanic vote than GWB had gotten, and four years later Mitt Romney got even less than McCain. The Latino Vote in Presidential Races: 1980–2012 - Latino USA. The rise in Hispanic support for the Republicans under Trump was a reversal of the prior trend.
They also have a lot more opportunity and means to do so, when things are shitty they are shitty for everyone even if the poor have it much worse. Even for illegal immigrants visa overstays outnumber border crossings.
That’s true. But suppose you’re a lawyer or accountant or such in some foreign country, or have a business going, and things are not going well for you or anyone else. You emigrate to the US, you’re no longer a lawyer or accountant or have an established business, and need to start all over in a new country where you don’t speak the language or know the ropes. So you’re more motivated to stick it out and see if things turn around for lawyers or people in your line of business. But if you’re digging ditches in one country, it’s a lot easier to try digging ditches in another country and see if maybe there’s more opportunity to move on up over there.
I’m not saying that no middle or upper class people ever emigrate. But the cost-benefit ratio is very different for them, and this skews the percentage a lot.
But they are not coming here with nothing. When we emigrated in the 90s dad had enough money to buy a business and a house. There is less risk and less sacrifice involved and everyone from top to bottom can see when a country is going to hell and is time to get out.
OK. I think it’s still going to be a lot less of the upper class (as compared to the percentage in the home country), but YMMV and unless we come up with some facts we may have to leave it at that.
I will defer to the numbers, then. But that then takes us back to people being baffled at how come that happened.
It really goes back to what was mentioned earlier: as the Hispanic group becomes more settled in, they will spread themselves among the general mainstream alignments in politics. Including populism.
And it cannot be explained by “their upper classes think themselves ‘white’” (even if that is true) – I mean, sure, say for the Venezuelan community, recently-displaced people who used to be the elite in Caracas will dominate positions of influence; but the New York/California/Texas Puerto Rican or Mexican-American communities have their own elites, born and raised here as “Hispanics”. I’d say the recent upsurge is not elites-driven. Just that many people of the Latino working and lower-middle classes by now have become just as likely to embrace Republican positions as the “white” ones, for many of the same reasons. For all the Right Wing’s bitching and moaning that we don’t hurry to assimilate, we are assimilating just as every prior immigrant group before (just not doing so invisibly/inaudibly).