# Historical long shots **URL:** \ **Category:** In My Humble Opinion\ **Created:** [August 10, 2013, 7:16pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/historical-long-shots/665890 "2013-08-10T19:16:21Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 2
**Author:** ![Kent\_Clark](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/kent_clark/32/105_2.png) [@Kent\_Clark](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Kent_Clark)\ **Post date:** [August 12, 2013, 2:10am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/historical-long-shots/665890/21 "2013-08-12T02:10:21Z")
A manned lunar landing only 12 years after the first successful launch of a satellite into Earth orbit. Bonus points because the team that put together the moon landing didn’t even have anything to do with the first satellite. ---
**Author:** ![terentii](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/terentii/32/212_2.png) [@terentii](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/terentii)\ **Post date:** [August 12, 2013, 2:25am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/historical-long-shots/665890/22 "2013-08-12T02:25:52Z")
> [@smiling\_bandit](#): > > The real interesting fact is that English, and not Spanish (slash-Portuguese) or French has taken over so effectively. The main reasons for this: Hollywood, after 1927 (and television, after about 1950), and the US involvement in WWII (and postwar dominance). The takeover was not only effective, but unbelievably swift. The English language is itself something of a fluke: It was an accident of history that William the Conquerer became King of England (his claim to the throne was shaky, to say the least), bringing Norman French into contact with Anglo-Saxon. Otherwise, modern-day English speakers would have ended up with a language much more like Dutch or Frisian. This is the only case where the influence of a single individual (William) resulted in the creation of a major new language. ---
**Author:** ![AK84](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/85e7bf/32.png) [@AK84](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/AK84)\ **Post date:** [August 12, 2013, 5:18am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/historical-long-shots/665890/23 "2013-08-12T05:18:16Z")
> [@Martian Bigfoot](#): > > How about the Persian wars? A small bunch of bickering Greek city states against the might of the entire Persian empire… and they kick the Persians’ butts. _Twice_. > > Not to mention Alexander. The Persian wars might be likened to Finland beating the Russians in the Winter War (hey, another example), but Alexander conquering Persia is like the Finns then going on to march on Moscow and winning. > > Rome against Carthage, after Cannae. The Roman fans were pretty much all leaving the stadium early at that point, because the game was clearly over. Only Rome never got the memo and refused to talk terms. Then Hannibal didn’t march on Rome, the Romans raised a new army, the game went into overtime, and the rest is, well, history. None of those were long shots at all. 1. The Persians found pacifying border regions impossible. Not the only defeat they suffered, nor the most far reaching (those would be Indus Valley and Egypt) 2. The Persian Empire in Alexander era was already past its sell-by-date. It would have lasted for a generation or two max. 3. There was no chance of Hannibal marching on Rome. He did not have the ability to reduce the city by siege and he and the Romans knew that. And Hannibal spent the next decade and a half marauding around Italy, so hardly “overtime”. ---
**Author:** ![Don\_t\_Panic](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/don_t_panic/32/398_2.png) [@Don\_t\_Panic](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Don_t_Panic)\ **Post date:** [August 12, 2013, 6:36am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/historical-long-shots/665890/24 "2013-08-12T06:36:20Z")
> [@AK84](#): > > None of those were long shots at all. Interesting, and ignorance fought. ---
**Author:** ![the\_diego](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/t/7bcc69/32.png) [@the\_diego](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/the_diego)\ **Post date:** [August 12, 2013, 8:40am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/historical-long-shots/665890/25 "2013-08-12T08:40:49Z")
Polynesians settling the Hawaiian islands Plymouth Harbor settlement Dutch settlements in general (of all places the African southern cape, Jakarta, and Manhattan) The Oregon Trail ---
**Author:** ![Prof.Pepperwinkle](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/prof.pepperwinkle/32/13627_2.png) [@Prof.Pepperwinkle](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Prof.Pepperwinkle)\ **Post date:** [August 12, 2013, 12:34pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/historical-long-shots/665890/26 "2013-08-12T12:34:39Z")
> [@madsircool](#): > > What would be the odds that an ugly histrionic Canadian would ascend to become President of the USA? > > . madsircool may be referring to the rumors that Chester A. Arthur (who became president upon the assassination of James Garfield) was born in Canada. The rumors have never been substantiated. ---
**Author:** ![madsircool](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/madsircool/32/3432_2.png) [@madsircool](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/madsircool)\ **Post date:** [August 12, 2013, 5:57pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/historical-long-shots/665890/27 "2013-08-12T17:57:13Z")
> [@Disposable Hero](#): > > You can throw a lot of accusations at Hitler _(and I’m not a fan)_ but I don’t think he was physically ugly or even unattractive _(in fact someone posted a colour photo of him once and it showed that he had strikingly blue eyes)_, he wasn’t a movie star by modern standards, but then who is. > > Sorry, just felt like commenting on that aspect of your post. 🙂 Not a problem 🙂 As I understand it, the Reichstag had to change the law to allow Hitler to take power; similarly, the Constitution could be amended to allow a foreign born President. ---
**Author:** ![terentii](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/terentii/32/212_2.png) [@terentii](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/terentii)\ **Post date:** [August 12, 2013, 6:23pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/historical-long-shots/665890/28 "2013-08-12T18:23:07Z")
> [@madsircool](#): > > Not a problem 🙂 > > As I understand it, the Reichstag had to change the law to allow Hitler to take power; similarly, the Constitution could be amended to allow a foreign born President. They had to pass a so-called Enabling Act granting him emergency powers after the Reichstag was burned, but he had already been appointed Chancellor by President Hindenburg. After the old man’s death, it was a simple matter of him merging the two offices into the post of Fuehrer. ---
**Author:** ![terentii](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/terentii/32/212_2.png) [@terentii](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/terentii)\ **Post date:** [August 12, 2013, 6:26pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/historical-long-shots/665890/29 "2013-08-12T18:26:19Z")
> [@Prof.Pepperwinkle](#): > > madsircool may be referring to the rumors that Chester A. Arthur (who became president upon the assassination of James Garfield) was born in Canada. The rumors have never been substantiated. IIRC, the Constitution forbids _naturalized_ US citizens from becoming President. A US citizen born abroad to US parents is not considered naturalized (if that’s what Arthur’s status was). ---
**Author:** ![RealityChuck](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/realitychuck/32/195_2.png) [@RealityChuck](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/RealityChuck)\ **Post date:** [August 12, 2013, 6:30pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/historical-long-shots/665890/30 "2013-08-12T18:30:58Z")
> [@panache45](#): > > IAlso, the original Boston Tea Party: They were angry because of a tax on tea. To be precise, they were protesting a tax _cut_ on tea (though the real issues had nothing to do with the the tax itself; it was a protest for self-government that was ahead of its time, but has been repeated many times since). How about four middle class boys from Liverpool, England becoming the biggest musical act of their time, with their music still being popular half a century later. So unlikely that their own record company thought they’d be forgotten in a couple of years. ---
**Author:** ![ralph124c](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/8797f3/32.png) [@ralph124c](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/ralph124c)\ **Post date:** [August 12, 2013, 9:51pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/historical-long-shots/665890/31 "2013-08-12T21:51:57Z")
> [@terentii](#): > > They had to pass a so-called Enabling Act granting him emergency powers after the Reichstag was burned, but he had already been appointed Chancellor by President Hindenburg. > > After the old man’s death, it was a simple matter of him merging the two offices into the post of Fuehrer. The real mystery was that the German Army officer class allowed Hitler to take power. To the generals, Hitler was an ignorant boor. ---
**Author:** ![nearwildheaven](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/n/90db22/32.png) [@nearwildheaven](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/nearwildheaven)\ **Post date:** [August 12, 2013, 9:55pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/historical-long-shots/665890/32 "2013-08-12T21:55:24Z")
> [@JoseB](#): > > Well, not really. The chances of the first scenario happening are _ **zero** _, if I understand the US constitution correctly. Only natural-born citizens can become president of the US. Would a cesarean delivery render a person ineligible for POTUS? If that was the case, Bill Clinton wouldn’t have been electable. 😃 AFAIK, he’s the only POTUS who came into the world that way. Can’t recall where I heard that, but it stuck with me because it wouldn’t have been performed back then unless they almost lost both of them. Queen Elizabeth was born that way too. ---
**Author:** ![Alessan](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/alessan/32/465_2.png) [@Alessan](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Alessan)\ **Post date:** [August 13, 2013, 7:16am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/historical-long-shots/665890/33 "2013-08-13T07:16:40Z")
> [@ralph124c](#): > > The real mystery was that the German Army officer class allowed Hitler to take power. To the generals, Hitler was an ignorant boor. They were good at following orders. Say what you want about the Germans, but they were always big believers in a well-ordered society. The generals may not have liked Hitler, but he was in charge, and therefore they had to obey him. ---
**Author:** ![nearwildheaven](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/n/90db22/32.png) [@nearwildheaven](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/nearwildheaven)\ **Post date:** [August 13, 2013, 3:54pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/historical-long-shots/665890/34 "2013-08-13T15:54:49Z")
> [@Alessan](#): > > They were good at following orders. > > Say what you want about the Germans, but they were always big believers in a well-ordered society. The generals may not have liked Hitler, but he was in charge, and therefore they had to obey him. This was how the Rwandan holocaust happened too, because Rwandans were raised to never question authority. Immaculee Ilibagiza describes this well in her book “Left To Tell”. ---
**Author:** ![Earl\_Snake-Hips\_Tucker](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/earl_snake-hips_tucker/32/3269_2.png) [@Earl\_Snake-Hips\_Tucker](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Earl_Snake-Hips_Tucker)\ **Post date:** [August 13, 2013, 4:16pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/historical-long-shots/665890/35 "2013-08-13T16:16:59Z")
Would “The Long March” have been considered a long shot at the time? A ragtag group of men being harried across thousands of miles of inhospitable areas of China returns to become the new rulers. Now, there were several thousand survivors in this ragtag group, and they apparently picked up a lot of support as they went along. Also, there’s China’s internal instability at the time. So maybe it wasn’t such a long shot. Someone was bound to be victorious. ---
**Author:** ![MaxTheVool](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/9fc29f/32.png) [@MaxTheVool](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/MaxTheVool)\ **Post date:** [August 14, 2013, 1:36am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/historical-long-shots/665890/36 "2013-08-14T01:36:00Z")
> [@RealityChuck](#): > > How about four middle class boys from Liverpool, England becoming the biggest musical act of their time, with their music still being popular half a century later. So unlikely that their own record company thought they’d be forgotten in a couple of years. I dunno… I mean, SOMEONE is going to be the most biggest musical act of all time. Was there something specifically about them that made it particularly unlikely for them? ---
**Author:** ![terentii](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/terentii/32/212_2.png) [@terentii](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/terentii)\ **Post date:** [August 14, 2013, 3:10am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/historical-long-shots/665890/37 "2013-08-14T03:10:46Z")
> [@ralph124c](#): > > The real mystery was that the German Army officer class allowed Hitler to take power. To the generals, Hitler was an ignorant boor. They put him into power because he promised to (a) rebuild the country’s armed forces and (b) crush Marxism and parliamentarianism. The same reasons he was backed by the country’s leading industrialists (and a large percentage of the general electorate). Their big mistake was in thinking they could control Hitler once he came to power. Once they had sworn a personal oath of loyalty to him after Hindenburg’s death, he had them right where he wanted them. They also lost what remaining influence they had after the Fritsch and Blomberg scandals of 1938. ---
**Author:** ![terentii](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/terentii/32/212_2.png) [@terentii](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/terentii)\ **Post date:** [August 14, 2013, 3:18am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/historical-long-shots/665890/38 "2013-08-14T03:18:35Z")
> [@nearwildheaven](#): > > Would a cesarean delivery render a person ineligible for POTUS? If that was the case, Bill Clinton wouldn’t have been electable. 😃 AFAIK, he’s the only POTUS who came into the world that way. > > Can’t recall where I heard that, but it stuck with me because it wouldn’t have been performed back then unless they almost lost both of them. Queen Elizabeth was born that way too. Assuming that this isn’t some kind of joke, “natural born” in this case refers to being born within the borders of the US, or (as I believe) to at least one US parent abroad (like my daughter, who got her citizenship automatically from the Embassy in Moscow). It has nothing to do with the manner of your delivery. If you’re a US citizen born abroad and 35+, you have to have lived in the States for a minimum of 14 years before you’re eligible to serve as President. ---
**Author:** ![Sailboat](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/sailboat/32/461_2.png) [@Sailboat](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Sailboat)\ **Post date:** [August 14, 2013, 3:00pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/historical-long-shots/665890/39 "2013-08-14T15:00:44Z")
> [@Mr.Kobayashi](#): > > The rise of Genghis Khan and the Mongol Empire. A bunch of steppe-dwelling pony-riding tribal nomads run roughshod over an entire continent and stamp all over China, Russia and Persia? Well, Attila the Hun unified a steppe empire first, by almost 800 years, and overran a huge part of Asia and Europe, including invading the heart of the Roman Empire. Genghis did more and the polities he created lasted longer, but there was precedent when he did it. Still a longshot, but not quite such a bolt from the blue. ---
**Author:** ![Alessan](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/alessan/32/465_2.png) [@Alessan](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Alessan)\ **Post date:** [August 14, 2013, 4:21pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/historical-long-shots/665890/40 "2013-08-14T16:21:13Z")
Horse nomads suddenly bursting our of nowhere and conquering huge tracks of land is something that would happen with surprising regularity - you had the Huns, then the Arabs, then the Seljuks, then the Mongols, then the Ottomans… and I’ve probably missed a few, too. [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/historical-long-shots/665890.md?page=1) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/historical-long-shots/665890.md?page=3)