# Historical long shots **URL:** \ **Category:** In My Humble Opinion\ **Created:** [August 10, 2013, 7:16pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/historical-long-shots/665890 "2013-08-10T19:16:21Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 11\ **Page:** 3
**Author:** ![AK84](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/85e7bf/32.png) [@AK84](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/AK84)\ **Post date:** [August 14, 2013, 4:34pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/historical-long-shots/665890/41 "2013-08-14T16:34:39Z")
> [@Alessan](#): > > Horse nomads suddenly bursting our of nowhere and conquering huge tracks of land is something that would happen with surprising regularity - you had the Huns, then the Arabs, then the Seljuks, then the Mongols, then the Ottomans… and I’ve probably missed a few, too. The Scythians, the Kushans, the Aryans. Well, the Arabs were not horse people nor particularly nomadic, the initial Arab conquests were led by settled peoples after all. The Ottomans were also settled, by the times they became a power, although the Arab conquests are pretty much the poster boys for historical long shots. Others i) The rise of Rome ii) The rise of Cyrus iii) The Saudi pacification of the Arabian Peninsula. What is forgotten is that before the 20th peninsula no power had actually completely ruled Arabia. ---
**Author:** ![bup](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/6bbea6/32.png) [@bup](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/bup)\ **Post date:** [August 14, 2013, 4:46pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/historical-long-shots/665890/42 "2013-08-14T16:46:44Z")
If you had asked me in 2006 what the odds were that a black man with the middle name Hussein would be elected president in 2008, I would have set about nil. And we already knew who Barack Obama was in 2006 - especially in Illinois. It’s corny, but the 1980 American Olympic hockey team beating Russia - it was college kids against an all-star team. Beating Russia was even more unlikely than the USA winning the gold medal - I’d have said the odds were higher that a Canada or a West Germany could have knocked the USSR out, and the US somehow beating them in the gold medal game (that is, more likely before the tournament tree was set up). ---
**Author:** ![Hari\_Seldon](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/hari_seldon/32/5173_2.png) [@Hari\_Seldon](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Hari_Seldon)\ **Post date:** [August 14, 2013, 9:57pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/historical-long-shots/665890/43 "2013-08-14T21:57:25Z")
> [@JoseB](#): > > Well, not really. The chances of the first scenario happening are _ **zero** _, if I understand the US constitution correctly. Only natural-born citizens can become president of the US. He means FDR, who was alleged by some to have been born on Campobello Island, NB. Early version of birthers. What an idiot! ---
**Author:** ![Mr.Kobayashi](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/4af34b/32.png) [@Mr.Kobayashi](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Mr.Kobayashi)\ **Post date:** [August 14, 2013, 10:32pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/historical-long-shots/665890/44 "2013-08-14T22:32:17Z")
> [@Sailboat](#): > > Well, Attila the Hun unified a steppe empire first, by almost 800 years, and overran a huge part of Asia and Europe, including invading the heart of the Roman Empire. Genghis did more and the polities he created lasted longer, but there was precedent when he did it. Still a longshot, but not quite such a bolt from the blue. > [@Alessan](#): > > Horse nomads suddenly bursting our of nowhere and conquering huge tracks of land is something that would happen with surprising regularity - you had the Huns, then the Arabs, then the Seljuks, then the Mongols, then the Ottomans… and I’ve probably missed a few, too. The difference being that after Attila popped his clogs the Hunnic Empire fell apart quicker than a leper in a wind tunnel; Genghis created a more lasting dynasty after he pegged it. It was also the largest empire the world had known, not rivalled until the British stuck flags in everything. On the face of it the steppes of Mongolia may have caused a temporary headache rather than a continent-spanning empire. ---
**Author:** ![ralph124c](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/8797f3/32.png) [@ralph124c](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/ralph124c)\ **Post date:** [August 14, 2013, 10:43pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/historical-long-shots/665890/45 "2013-08-14T22:43:18Z")
> [@terentii](#): > > They put him into power because he promised to (a) rebuild the country’s armed forces and (b) crush Marxism and parliamentarianism. The same reasons he was backed by the country’s leading industrialists (and a large percentage of the general electorate). > > Their big mistake was in thinking they could control Hitler once he came to power. Once they had sworn a personal oath of loyalty to him after Hindenburg’s death, he had them right where he wanted them. They also lost what remaining influence they had after the Fritsch and Blomberg scandals of 1938. Well, it was even more amazing , after Hitler’s first attempt to seize power (the “Beer Hall Putsch”). Imagine…Hitler and his cohorts were faced down by armed police-Ludendorf gets arrested, and Hitler flees-not a good advertisement for Hitler. ---
**Author:** ![Grestarian](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/grestarian/32/3227_2.png) [@Grestarian](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Grestarian)\ **Post date:** [August 15, 2013, 8:44pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/historical-long-shots/665890/46 "2013-08-15T20:44:00Z")
> [@Rodgers01](#): > > Also, the conquering of the Aztec Empire by Hernan Cortes and his followers was incredibly unlikely. Read “The History of the Conquest of Mexico” by William H. Prescott - it’s an amazing story. > [@Trinopus](#): > > And then they redoubled and did it again to the Incan Empire. How does one even begin to assess the “likelihood” of such events? Not long ago I finished reading an old text called “American Hero-Myths A Study in the Native Religions of the Western Continent” by Daniel Garrison Brinton [Free on Amazon]. The author takes a deep look into the essential elements of various ‘genesis’ tales of the various cultures in Central America and finds several common themes with their roots in allegorizing and personifying natural events. Common and key among them is a tale in which the elder son of the sky god is a golden-haired man with a long white beard; the giver of warmth, knowledge, sprouting seeds, life, tradition, etcetera. He is chased by his younger brother and driven westward beyond the sea, but promises the people he will return (from the East, after magically transporting there). This is an allegory for the sun, driven westward (chased/followed) by night or the moon and reappearing in the East again, with sunrise often preceded by clouds (his beard). [Note that I’m boiling a lot of this book down to a few sentences, so I’m hardly doing it justice.] So, after a few millennia of handing down the same old legends and slowly forgetting the allegorical aspects, a distillation becomes “The father of our people will one day return, preceded by his flowing white beard and robe and wearing his traditional golden hair. He will lead us again and bring us prosperity, abundance, and knowledge.” With that kind of prophecy hanging around, all anyone needed to do was 1) Arrive from beyond the eastern horizon 2) Be blond 3) Have a beard 4) Possess superior technology (knowledge in practice). The societies clinging to such prophecies would then treat you and your entourage like gods, inviting you in and giving you anything you want. You could then station your people strategically before any of the locals realized you were merely human. —G! When Cortez reached the new world, He burned his ships. Thus, the men were well-motivated to succeed. …–Ramius …The Hunt for Red October ---
**Author:** ![Annie-Xmas](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/ecc23a/32.png) [@Annie-Xmas](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Annie-Xmas)\ **Post date:** [August 15, 2013, 8:55pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/historical-long-shots/665890/47 "2013-08-15T20:55:53Z")
The Beatles. A young group consisting of four vastly different people playing a new type of music from a little town in a little country literally changed music and music history forever. ---
**Author:** ![madsircool](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/madsircool/32/3432_2.png) [@madsircool](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/madsircool)\ **Post date:** [August 15, 2013, 9:21pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/historical-long-shots/665890/48 "2013-08-15T21:21:37Z")
Liverpool a little town?? The UK a little country?? ---
**Author:** ![putrid](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/p/e5b9ba/32.png) [@putrid](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/putrid)\ **Post date:** [August 16, 2013, 6:44am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/historical-long-shots/665890/49 "2013-08-16T06:44:26Z")
Redheads developing & then becoming actually seen as particularly attractive, by some people. Rock & roll being invented and being the only music enjoyed, by some people. Mammals evolving into humans and then stopping evolving as humans. Computers leading to the internet and then becoming particularly known for porn. Slavery being banned. Humans strolling over to North America. Drinking & smoking became seen as unhealthy activity and yet remain as popular activity. Likewise for holding wars every few years. Everybody wishes crime didn’t exist, yet enjoys detective stories. With as popular as large breasts have become, that adding a 3rd one hasn’t yet. Chinese restaurants sweeping the US. The popularity of gambling. The popularity of pets, besides for hunters. The continued popularity of raising families. ---
**Author:** ![Malacandra](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/45deac/32.png) [@Malacandra](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Malacandra)\ **Post date:** [August 16, 2013, 7:25am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/historical-long-shots/665890/50 "2013-08-16T07:25:39Z")
> [@madsircool](#): > > Liverpool a little town?? The UK a little country?? Be grateful she even knows where the Beatles came from, never mind find it on a map or know anything about it. /slam at Americans generally, not an individual poster. 😛 ---
**Author:** ![madsircool](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/madsircool/32/3432_2.png) [@madsircool](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/madsircool)\ **Post date:** [August 16, 2013, 7:42am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/historical-long-shots/665890/51 "2013-08-16T07:42:19Z")
> [@Malacandra](#): > > Be grateful she even knows where the Beatles came from, never mind find it on a map or know anything about it. > > /slam at Americans generally, not an individual poster. 😛 Its Liverpoo to me 😛 They are Satans spawn. 1500 meters away is Everton salvation. 😉 [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/historical-long-shots/665890.md?page=2)