# Hitting the big 7,000,000,000 **URL:** \ **Category:** Factual Questions\ **Created:** [June 26, 2011, 6:46pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/hitting-the-big-7-000-000-000/586925 "2011-06-26T18:46:32Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 16\ **Page:** 1
**Author:** ![panache45](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/panache45/32/64_2.png) [@panache45](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/panache45)\ **Post date:** [June 26, 2011, 6:46pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/hitting-the-big-7-000-000-000/586925/1 "2011-06-26T18:46:32Z")
According to many sites, the world’s population is scheduled to hit 7,000,000,000 sometime this year. Is there any estimate as to the date when this will happen? ---
**Author:** ![Michael\_of\_Lucan](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/dbc845/32.png) [@Michael\_of\_Lucan](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Michael_of_Lucan)\ **Post date:** [June 26, 2011, 7:00pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/hitting-the-big-7-000-000-000/586925/2 "2011-06-26T19:00:33Z")
It’s only an estimated figure. It’s not like there’s a meter somewhere ticking off the numbers, and the seven billionth winner gets champagne. The population figure is the net sum of births and deaths. The figures for those are notoriously unreliable in many countries round the world. Many births and deaths are never recorded, and some countries just estimate their population. So, don’t expect a headline in the news “Seven billion today”. It won’t happen. ---
**Author:** ![srzss05](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/898d66/32.png) [@srzss05](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/srzss05)\ **Post date:** [June 26, 2011, 7:02pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/hitting-the-big-7-000-000-000/586925/3 "2011-06-26T19:02:51Z")
> [@Michael\_of\_Lucan](#): > > . > > So, don’t expect a headline in the news “Seven billion today”. It won’t happen. You hit the edit button before I could reply. ---
**Author:** ![running\_coach](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/running_coach/32/15836_2.png) [@running\_coach](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/running_coach)\ **Post date:** [June 26, 2011, 7:05pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/hitting-the-big-7-000-000-000/586925/4 "2011-06-26T19:05:04Z")
I thought this was going to be one _hell_ of a post count party. ---
**Author:** ![levdrakon](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/l/49beb7/32.png) [@levdrakon](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/levdrakon)\ **Post date:** [June 26, 2011, 7:14pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/hitting-the-big-7-000-000-000/586925/5 "2011-06-26T19:14:25Z")
I thought we already hit it. [I guess not.](http://www.census.gov/main/www/popclock.html) Now it’s projected to [hit 7 billion in 2012](http://www.census.gov/ipc/www/popwnote.html). I’m not sure if they have an exact date yet, as the estimates get regularly updated. But, I’m certain when it happens, it will happen on an exact day and it will be in the news. We might not have an exact day until we enter the month it’s estimated to occur. ---
**Author:** ![Zeldar](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/z/b77776/32.png) [@Zeldar](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Zeldar)\ **Post date:** [June 26, 2011, 7:16pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/hitting-the-big-7-000-000-000/586925/6 "2011-06-26T19:16:25Z")
> [@runner pat](#): > > I thought this was going to be one _hell_ of a post count party. I heard that! My first thought was that something had gone haywire on the Front Page > [@](#): > > What’s Going On? > Straight Dope Message Board Statistics > Threads: 586,848, Posts: 13,846,493, Members: 116,292, Active Members: 10,949 > Welcome to our newest member, James H. Albert But if you want to watch along: [http://www.worldometers.info/](http://www.worldometers.info/) ---
**Author:** ![MikeS](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/919ad9/32.png) [@MikeS](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/MikeS)\ **Post date:** [June 26, 2011, 7:17pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/hitting-the-big-7-000-000-000/586925/7 "2011-06-26T19:17:47Z")
It’s possible to estimate the dates, but as noted by **Michael of Lucan** they’re only approximate. The [Day of 6 Billion](http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Day_of_6_Billion), for example, was declared by the UN Population Fund to be October 12, 1999; estimates based on U.S. Census Bureau approximations put it in June 1999 instead. Similarly, the “Day of Seven Billion” (according to this [Wiki page](http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/World_population)) is estimated to either be in August of this year or July of next year, depending on who you ask. However, I do expect that there will be a headline reading “Seven Billion Today” at some point in the next year or two. At some point, one or the other of the above agencies will put out a press release talking about their estimates. The articles & TV spots written about will undoubtedly not make it clear that this is only an estimate, and most of the public will just it assume that they’ve determined the exact date. (Yes, I’m a little cynical about science journalism) ---
**Author:** ![Markxxx](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/5daacb/32.png) [@Markxxx](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Markxxx)\ **Post date:** [June 26, 2011, 7:22pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/hitting-the-big-7-000-000-000/586925/8 "2011-06-26T19:22:18Z")
Here is the link to the [Population Clock](http://www.census.gov/main/www/popclock.html), from the US Census. It gives both the US and World population Here’s some figures from that site Date -\> World Population -\> Increase ```auto 07/1/2010 6,852,472,823 08/1/2010 6,858,904,297 6,431,474 09/1/2010 6,865,335,772 6,431,475 10/1/2010 6,871,559,780 6,224,008 11/1/2010 6,877,991,255 6,431,475 12/1/2010 6,884,215,263 6,224,008 01/1/2011 6,890,646,738 6,431,475 02/1/2011 6,897,078,213 6,431,475 03/1/2011 6,902,887,287 5,809,074 04/1/2011 6,909,318,762 6,431,475 05/1/2011 6,915,542,770 6,224,008 06/1/2011 6,921,974,245 6,431,475 07/1/2011 6,928,198,253 6,224,008 ``` So I took all these number and threw them in Excel and did an average monthly again The average monthly gain is 6,310,453 So each month, on average, the world is gaining 6,310,453 If this holds true the world won’t hit the seven billion mark till July 2012 ```auto 08/1/2011 6,934,508,706 09/1/2011 6,940,819,159 10/1/2011 6,947,129,612 11/1/2011 6,953,440,065 12/1/2011 6,959,750,518 01/1/2012 6,966,060,971 02/1/2012 6,972,371,424 03/1/2012 6,978,681,877 04/1/2012 6,984,992,330 05/1/2012 6,991,302,783 06/1/2012 6,997,613,236 07/1/2012 7,003,923,689 ``` ---
**Author:** ![Chronos](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/chronos/32/134_2.png) [@Chronos](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Chronos)\ **Post date:** [June 26, 2011, 7:39pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/hitting-the-big-7-000-000-000/586925/9 "2011-06-26T19:39:45Z")
Nitpick: That would put 7 billion sometime in the middle of June, not July. And your population change figures look to be based on an assumption of just a constant increase per day, with the only variation from month to month being due to the length of the month. So you’d be much better off just going with the per-day rate they’re using. ---
**Author:** ![Michael\_of\_Lucan](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/dbc845/32.png) [@Michael\_of\_Lucan](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Michael_of_Lucan)\ **Post date:** [June 26, 2011, 7:42pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/hitting-the-big-7-000-000-000/586925/10 "2011-06-26T19:42:16Z")
The US Census site confirms what I say, that any figures quoted are merely estimates. The number quoted is imaginary, not reflecting actual population figures. I suspect that in the next twelve months or so they will arbitrarily decide that the seven billionth person has been reached. A photogenic new-born baby somewhere like Chad will be picked to represent this, not a kid in Chicago or Dublin. However, it will be an arbitrary choice. Think of a business which decides to give a reward to its millionth customer. They really don’t know who it is, so they arbitrarily pick someone who is somewhere around number one million. By an amazing coincidence, it will be someone reasonably photogenic, and in their target market. ---
**Author:** ![Zeldar](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/z/b77776/32.png) [@Zeldar](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Zeldar)\ **Post date:** [June 26, 2011, 7:56pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/hitting-the-big-7-000-000-000/586925/11 "2011-06-26T19:56:25Z")
> [@Michael\_of\_Lucan](#): > > The US Census site confirms what I say, that any figures quoted are merely estimates. The number quoted is imaginary, not reflecting actual population figures. > > I suspect that in the next twelve months or so they will arbitrarily decide that the seven billionth person has been reached. A photogenic new-born baby somewhere like Chad will be picked to represent this, not a kid in Chicago or Dublin. However, it will be an arbitrary choice. > > Think of a business which decides to give a reward to its millionth customer. They really don’t know who it is, so they arbitrarily pick someone who is somewhere around number one million. By an amazing coincidence, it will be someone reasonably photogenic, and in their target market. Yeah. They could go with that old joke [spoiler] [http://www.ohgizmo.com/2006/04/05/lasik-at-home-do-it-yourself-laser-eye-surgery/](http://www.ohgizmo.com/2006/04/05/lasik-at-home-do-it-yourself-laser-eye-surgery/) > [@](#): > > WHich reminds me of the doctor who says to the nervous dad in the waiting room, “I have good news and bad news. THe good news is your wife just gave birth to an 8 lb 4 oz eyeball.” > “WHat the hell is the bad news, Doc?” the father replied. > “It’s blind.” [/spoiler] ---
**Author:** ![panache45](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/panache45/32/64_2.png) [@panache45](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/panache45)\ **Post date:** [June 26, 2011, 10:44pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/hitting-the-big-7-000-000-000/586925/12 "2011-06-26T22:44:43Z")
> [@Michael\_of\_Lucan](#): > > It’s only an estimated figure. > > It’s not like there’s a meter somewhere ticking off the numbers, and the seven billionth winner gets champagne. The population figure is the net sum of births and deaths. The figures for those are notoriously unreliable in many countries round the world. Many births and deaths are never recorded, and some countries just estimate their population. > > So, don’t expect a headline in the news “Seven billion today”. It won’t happen. I know all this. That’s why I used the word “estimate.” ---
**Author:** ![Candyman74](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/c/ad7895/32.png) [@Candyman74](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Candyman74)\ **Post date:** [June 27, 2011, 12:19am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/hitting-the-big-7-000-000-000/586925/13 "2011-06-27T00:19:54Z")
I’m counting them personally. Unfortunately, I need to tell you that there are actually only seven people in this world. The other six have really good disguises. ---
**Author:** ![Chronos](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/chronos/32/134_2.png) [@Chronos](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Chronos)\ **Post date:** [June 27, 2011, 1:23am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/hitting-the-big-7-000-000-000/586925/14 "2011-06-27T01:23:24Z")
> [@](#): > > I’m counting them personally. Unfortunately, I need to tell you that there are actually only seven people in this world. The other six have really good disguises. To whom are you telling this? ---
**Author:** ![Rhythmdvl](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/85f322/32.png) [@Rhythmdvl](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Rhythmdvl)\ **Post date:** [June 27, 2011, 1:45am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/hitting-the-big-7-000-000-000/586925/15 "2011-06-27T01:45:14Z")
> [@Candyman74](#): > > I’m counting them personally. Unfortunately, I need to tell you that there are actually only seven people in this world. The other six have really good disguises. > [@Chronos](#): > > To whom are you telling this? Who is number one? ---
**Author:** ![Candyman74](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/c/ad7895/32.png) [@Candyman74](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Candyman74)\ **Post date:** [June 27, 2011, 2:06am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/hitting-the-big-7-000-000-000/586925/16 "2011-06-27T02:06:15Z")
> [@Chronos](#): > > To whom are you telling this? Bob.