Interesting. These absolute numbers would have to be compared to the percentage of gun deaths through accidental discharge, or gun deaths through depression, to get a rational sense of risk.
I also found this interesting:
Aren’t the risk for what happens after the defense shooting, when the police arrive, much more severe for Native Americans or People of Color than for white people?
Most likely it’s related to what several other studies show: poor areas have higher crime incidence, which means the average white guy living in the suburbs, who’s most afraid of his life is less at risk than the young people living in the ghetto (and who have a harder time moving out).
Again, why arm instead of better doors and windows first?
No, I’m looking for data instead of those hypothetical scenarios that always come up, to compare how likely the risk is. We can look at the risk rate of driving a car vs taking an airplane, because numbers are available. We have only limited numbers for the US because the NRA lobbies lawmakers to forbid neutral studies; but we can compare the US to other first-world countries, even neighbouring countries with large rural stretches like Canada, and their gun deaths are orders of magnitude smaller. Is it just that Canadian politeness, or a difference in culture plus laws?
Good fucking lord, are you really so dense as to not comprehend that domestic abusers frequently continue to pursue their victims for years after they have made every effort to leave the relationship, including moving hundreds of miles away and finding new employment? Do you not understand that women (and it is most frequently women, although there are male victims of persistent domestic abuse and stalking as well) who are targeted by abusers continue to have to provide for their own protection as the enforcement of domestic restraint orders can only occur if the perpetrator is observed violating the order by law enforcement, and domestic crimes are often given low priority by law enforcement agencies? Or are you just deciding that you are going to stick to your position like a limpet that no one does or can use a personal firearm for self-protection?
That the aggressor in San Bernardino was armed was tragic and argues for stronger laws dealing with perpetrators of domestic violence and people with potentially violent mental illness who may use weapons to harm others but unless you are suggesting that there is some way to collect the more than 300 million privately owned firearms in the United States arguing that people who may be potentially victimized by aggressive criminals should not be able to receive training and own a firearm for protection is simply leaving them defenseless, and even if you could use magic fairy dust to make all privately owned firearms disappear it would not address the fact that male aggressors in domestic violence and stalking generally have the advantage of size and greater strength. Anyone who has been victim to predatory crime is well aware that even the most capable law enforcement agency cannot police everywhere and stop all crimes, and that you are your own first responder.
BATFE Form 4473 (NICS background check form) specifically asks about Domestic Abuse, including misdemeanor convicgtions and protective orders (Qustions 11.h and 11.i). So - The aggressor was beaking the law before they committed an act of violence. Some states have created laws that retroactively remove weapons from a ‘person prohibited’ whilst they remain prohibited - But those are usually greivously flawed, and rely entirely too much on citizen reporting; a demonstration of the fact that criminals ignore the law*, and that the law generally only hampers the honest and law abiding.
From the data, it shows some interesting patterns.
As can be expected, people with lower income levels suffer a much higher percentage of burglaries. For households with a household income of $75,000 or greater, there is only a 0.57% rate of burglaries per year.
Important Note: The following takes the numbers for households in this income level.
Assault or rape only occurred in 7.2% of all burglaries, which means that there would be only a 0.035% chance of this per household* per year. Aggravated assault or rape occurred only in 1.9% of all burglaries lower the odds to 0.0108%. Strangers only accounted for 27.8% of the burglaries where violence occurred, so the odds of being a victim of assault or rape by a stranger would be 0.00298%. Most of the cases are simple assaults, so the odds of actually getting seriously injured or killed by a stranger in your own home is too far down on the scale to really measure it.
While “arming yourself is one way to avoid relying on the good graces of those that would do you harm” is one method, there actually much better ways. Most of the burglaries occurred with soft targets, with the criminals gaining entry through open or unlocked doors or windows or by allowing the criminal in.
Only in less than 12% of the time did the burglars gain entry through breaking or forcing a door or window, or by other means than those given in my previous paragraph.
Locking doors and securing windows and other points of entry will ensure that you are simply not going to be one of those seriously injured in a burglary. Or maybe you will be one of those unlucky ones, after all there is the whopping 0.00036% of households with these conditions which will have someone become a victim of assault or rape.
Of course, if you meet these conditions and you own a gun, and you aren’t seriously injured, then conformation bias will assure you that the ownership of firearm is the reason for your safety, rather than simple statistics.
Then if you look at a smoker who owns a gun, the lifetime odds of them suffering from cancer is going to be higher than needing to use a weapon to defend their lives. Someone like me who doesn’t exercise sufficiently will find their live shortened by those health risks at a much higher rate.
Worse, deaths of suicide are at a far higher rate. Overall the rate of suicide by gun is 6 in 100,000, or 0.006%. Not at how that compares to the risk of being hurt by a stranger for the people in our target group: 0.00036%.
These are just quick calculations and no doubt that there are errors in the methodology. However, even with correcting that, the numbers will show that there just isn’t much actual danger. “Feeling safe” is less about real numbers than how one feels.
Finally, if the odds of getting seriously hurt by a stranger are small, the odds of being a victim of mass shooting in the US (excluding domestic violence and gang related shooting) is only slightly higher than finding a pink unicorn. While the latter is absolutely zero, the former is 61 divided by 320 million.
Changing the locks costs very little if you do it yourself. That resets your situation back to zero.
Getting a dog for protection is a poor idea if you don’t want a pet to take care and is cruel to the animal.
If you live in a neighborhood where violent home invasions are a real possibility then handguns are easier to shoot and store than shotguns and rifles. .380’s are too small for accuracy and the larger guns are harder to handle. A decent 9mm will run you $500. A decent lawyer will cost you $5000 if you’re innocent but you can buy insurance for that starting in the $150 year range.
The gun is useless without nominal training. 20 hrs on the range should have you grouping a 5 inch circle at 25 feet and that covers most rooms in your house. It’s best to avoid shooting people for a host of reasons so I would recommend establishing a safe room with a way to barricade yourself long enough for the police to arrive.
If you feel you need a gun then I’d consider a revolver or semi-automatic with a mechanical flag that tells you it’s got a round chambered.
That’s an entirely different question, and not really relevant. You’ve now been presented with data about home burglaries when people are present. Is the results in line with your expectations?
Your link doesn’t say what you are claiming it says.
No, they don’t and this is false.
What does this show about how much training is necessary? Wasn’t it you earlier who derided the use of anecdote to support some point?
Where San Bernardino happened, in CA, they already do this with the Armed Prohibited Persons System. It doesn’t rely on citizen reporting, I believe it uses databases of gun owners and cross references them with people who become prohibited. It seems to be backlogged, and there have been a few instances of false positives with poor results for the person impacted.
12% seems pretty high to me. Not quite as high as the chance of a Trump presidency on Nov 7, but unacceptably high none the less. Given there are 126M households in the US, and the number of break ins with people home is in the hundreds of thousands, yes the chance is rare, but we all make choices.
I totally recommend passive security measures, as I mentioned in the first post of this thread. I don’t think anyone said a gun alone is some kind of magic that beats having strong locks, alarm system, etc. I take additional measures myself - the biggest one is I can afford to live in a low crime area that self segregates on income. If you don’t earn a certain amount, you won’t be able to live here. The population is low enough that police response is under 10 minutes most of the time, and I know some of the officers by name. That being said, shooting is really freaking fun so having a bunch of guns serves dual purposes.
I would never say that everyone should own a gun - it should be a choice that a responsible person can make. The costs of ownership including the cost of the firearm, training, securing the weapon, etc. may be not worth the hassle for folks and that’s perfectly fine. My guns have protected me exactly zero times, though I did have a break in during the day when I was working from home. I had left to pick up my kids and when I returned I discovered the break in. I am typically armed when home by myself so if the time shifted about 45 minutes, I would have been home during the break in and the result would probably have been different. Even a high priced neighborhood in a low crime area can experience break ins.
Now I’m sure the homes you theoretically live in are mansions with grand staircases and bowling alleys turned into golfing simulators in the basement but my house is a little different. The smallest room is 6x10, the master bedroom is 18x22. Yeah – your absolutely right. I really should have a precise set of sites for those distances. Maybe I should even mount a scope! Whadda you think? Worst case scenario - someone comes in my back door while I’ve just entered the front; that is 54 feet and at that range I can put all five in the heart and lungs fast. And I’m not even a good shot. Although in that scenario I may consider ducking back outside until the cops arrive. Maybe.
Recessed hammer means it fits in my pants pocket easily, or my robe pocket, so its always handy. And like making sure a motorcycle helmet is comfortable so you always wear it, it isn’t a bad idea to make the pistol comfortable so you always carry it and have it under your control. Its also light enough that after a couple days you don’t even notice its there.
OK, so I’m only starting with 5 shots. Now theoretically someone could be worried about being mistaken for a meth dealer and facing 4-12 crazed bikers bent on robbing them. Maybe that’s what your worried about? Could be. But the times I’ve had someone enter my home unwanted its been a single person; the worst case anywhere around me was three. Since I’m not going warning shots I figure 5 is enough. And worse comes to worse there are other options handy if I need them. I mix loads with ---- whatever pleases me at the time. I usually start with a couple full wadcutters because with them I can almost pick the button I want. Next are a couple jacketed hollowpoints for hard hitting. Last varies; I liked stacked rounds but I will sometimes throw a round nosed in that slot. I also have several speedloaders just because I happen to like speedloaders; I even use than at the range rather than loading from the box.
If you go back and read the thread you will see shotgun was the first choice others, and myself, stated/gave. From there it became more a question of if you are going handgun, which one. Since we’re not talking street carry the issue becomes something in say the nightstand or something you will keep on you all the time while you are home.
1911s are fine (I liked my Ithica Silver Cup while I had it) but do I want to tote it on me all the time; especially at home? Not really; needs leather and that doesn’t fit my lifestyle. That goes for my 25-5 and some other nice picks… The 49 and its various variants are designed for casual carry in whatever pocket or place you have handy - and I’ve used them all. It sits there just like the wallet I probably don’t need either. Don’t get me wrong; if you come in the front door while I’m in the bedroom upstairs, that may not be the source of the bad day headed your way. But catch me by surprise around the house and that very well could be the return surprise you don’t want. And mine has proven itself when I needed it; to me that will always be the most important factor.
With that I’m getting redundant and just a little bit bored. The OP is covered and from here we’re just playing debate. But we’ll probably see each other in another thread so its all good.
There’s a grievous flaw right there - There are exactly zero comprehensive firearms ownership databases in the US - Not even in California. It’s a Nice Try - But it’s still No Cigar.
Of course it’s not comprehensive. The point was an example of the type of system you mentioned. I think it’s poorly executed and should be abandoned, but hey it’s there.
Indeed, it is there - they’re trying, though they missed the mark. Even as a rabid 2A supporter, I applaud the concept - we just need to figure out the execution.
Worst case scenario - someone comes in my back door while I’ve just entered the front; that is 54 feet and at that range I can put all five in the heart and lungs fast. And I’m not even a good shot. Although in that scenario I may consider ducking back outside until the cops arrive. Maybe.