# Hope for the Republican Party of the future? **URL:** \ **Category:** Politics & Elections\ **Created:** [March 11, 2014, 1:28pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/hope-for-the-republican-party-of-the-future/683423 "2014-03-11T13:28:46Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 3
**Author:** ![Frank\_Merton](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/f/b9e5f3/32.png) [@Frank\_Merton](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Frank_Merton)\ **Post date:** [March 16, 2014, 6:31am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/hope-for-the-republican-party-of-the-future/683423/41 "2014-03-16T06:31:48Z")
Looks to me the Republicans will gain seats but not control the Senate and increase their hold on the House. That is about what one expects with an unpopular sitting president of a given party. For the presidential election following a couple years later, I think the Democrats will coronate Mrs. Clinton and if the Republicans nominate anyone even reasonably moderate they will win; her negatives are too big. The “Tea Party” types are an element the Republicans have always had to deal with (I remember Senator McCarthy and how Eisenhower boded his time until the the Senator destroyed himself. A similar process is now happening. ---
**Author:** ![2sense](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/2/e47774/32.png) [@2sense](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/2sense)\ **Post date:** [March 16, 2014, 6:40am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/hope-for-the-republican-party-of-the-future/683423/42 "2014-03-16T06:40:09Z")
> [@Little\_Nemo](#): > > I agree with Martin Hyde. Both conservatives and liberals make the mistake of thinking voters are settling for a centrist because they can’t have the more extreme candidate they really want. But that’s not true. The reason it’s the center of the political spectrum is because that’s where people are. We want to be in the middle. We don’t pick candidates like Obama or Clinton because they’re the most left-leaning choice available on Election Day. We pick them because they’re not leaning too far to the right or left. Both conservatives and liberals make the mistake of mistaking the elite consensus for popular opinion. The latter can be on the right on social issues but is generally to the left on economics. [44% of Americans are against free trade](http://www.pewresearch.org/2010/11/09/americans-are-of-two-minds-on-trade/). [71% of Americans favor increasing minimum wage](http://blogs.wsj.com/washwire/2013/02/21/poll-strong-support-for-raising-minimum-wage/). [40% of Americans have a negative view of capitalism](http://www.people-press.org/2011/12/28/little-change-in-publics-response-to-capitalism-socialism/). So yeah, we all do tend to project but there is good reason to believe going populist is good politics. ---
**Author:** ![adaher](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/dec6dc/32.png) [@adaher](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/adaher)\ **Post date:** [March 16, 2014, 8:47am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/hope-for-the-republican-party-of-the-future/683423/43 "2014-03-16T08:47:39Z")
> [@Little\_Nemo](#): > > And when the Republican Party arrives in twenty years at where the Democratic Party is now, it’ll claim it’s been there for thirty years. No, the GOP is honest about where it’s been. The Democrats are the ones that try to whitewash their history. > [@](#): > > As for economic issues, the worst thing that could happen is if the Democrats started imitating the economic policies of the current Republican party. The Republican Party used to be the party of fiscal responsibility but it’s become the party of short term thinking. Things like deregulation and deficit spending can give you a temporary boom but they always lead to a bust in the end. The specifics of policies are different from a general ideology. A conservative party can cut taxes, fail to cut spending, and run big deficits. Or it can cut spending, fail to cut taxes, and run big surpluses. Or it can cut both only a little bit. A general dislike of tax and spend can take you in a few different directions. A general enjoyment of tax and spend can also take you in a few different directions. The Democratic Party up until Bill Clinton believed that you shouldn’t run big deficits. The Democratic Party post-Bill Clinton is now into big deficits because Keynes and the Great Recession. Of course, they have to be into big deficits because they now have adopted the Republican worldview that no one making under $400,000 should ever see their taxes go up. That severely limits how much the government can be funded, leaving Democrats with the choice of either learning to love deficits, or cutting back government sharply. I’d say in 20 years they’ll have resigned themselves to cutting back government. ---
**Author:** ![adaher](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/dec6dc/32.png) [@adaher](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/adaher)\ **Post date:** [March 16, 2014, 8:50am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/hope-for-the-republican-party-of-the-future/683423/44 "2014-03-16T08:50:32Z")
> [@Frank\_Merton](#): > > Looks to me the Republicans will gain seats but not control the Senate and increase their hold on the House. That is about what one expects with an unpopular sitting president of a given party. > > For the presidential election following a couple years later, I think the Democrats will coronate Mrs. Clinton and if the Republicans nominate anyone even reasonably moderate they will win; her negatives are too big. > > . I think you’re wrong on both counts. I think the GOP will win the Senate, but I dont think they are going to beat Hillary Clinton. 2020 is the most likely year for the GOP to win the Presidency. Hillary will be looking pretty tired by 2020, making her a perfect foil for a young Republican challenger even if she is a decent President. If she’s a great President(a very real possibility), then forget it, Democrats may hold the WH until 2028. ---
**Author:** ![Frank\_Merton](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/f/b9e5f3/32.png) [@Frank\_Merton](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Frank_Merton)\ **Post date:** [March 16, 2014, 11:24am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/hope-for-the-republican-party-of-the-future/683423/45 "2014-03-16T11:24:46Z")
The only way I can see another Clinton Presidency is if the Republicans go libertarian or some silliness like that. ---
**Author:** ![adaher](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/dec6dc/32.png) [@adaher](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/adaher)\ **Post date:** [March 16, 2014, 12:45pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/hope-for-the-republican-party-of-the-future/683423/46 "2014-03-16T12:45:38Z")
Hopefully you’re right. But the polls say Clinton could fall a LONG way down and still win handily. Although the latest poll showed Jeb uncomfortably close to her. Just what the country needs: A Bush-Clinton race. ---
**Author:** ![Martin\_Hyde](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/47e85d/32.png) [@Martin\_Hyde](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Martin_Hyde)\ **Post date:** [March 16, 2014, 2:52pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/hope-for-the-republican-party-of-the-future/683423/47 "2014-03-16T14:52:11Z")
> [@adaher](#): > > Democrats are always counting on vast swathes of new voters. Barack Obama did a great job at turning them out in 2008. De Blasio and Warren are not Barack Obama. Plus Obama had to campaign as an Eisenhower Republican to accomplish it. > > Now I’d be thrilled to test the viability of an unabashedly liberal Presidential candidacy as much as you would be. How about it in 2016? Yes, I would be absolutely thrilled by a de Blasio or Warren candidacy as it’d mean the GOP back in the White House far sooner than I expected. I can think of ten Republicans likely to win the nomination that would kill either of those candidates, and I can’t think of one who can beat Hillary. ---
**Author:** ![adaher](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/dec6dc/32.png) [@adaher](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/adaher)\ **Post date:** [March 16, 2014, 2:57pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/hope-for-the-republican-party-of-the-future/683423/48 "2014-03-16T14:57:58Z")
I can think of a few who CAN, but they’d be underdogs. We have a few likeable governors who poll low now mainly due to lack of name recognition. That’s why my favorite candidate is Jindal at this point. He’s likeable and a solid governor and I think likeability is the best antidote to Hillary Clinton’s unbeatability, because no matter how hard she tries, that will always be her biggest weakness. ---
**Author:** ![iiandyiiii](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/iiandyiiii/32/7924_2.png) [@iiandyiiii](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/iiandyiiii)\ **Post date:** [March 16, 2014, 3:51pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/hope-for-the-republican-party-of-the-future/683423/49 "2014-03-16T15:51:54Z")
> [@adaher](#): > > I can think of a few who CAN, but they’d be underdogs. We have a few likeable governors who poll low now mainly due to lack of name recognition. > > That’s why my favorite candidate is Jindal at this point. He’s likeable and a solid governor and I think likeability is the best antidote to Hillary Clinton’s unbeatability, because no matter how hard she tries, that will always be her biggest weakness. Jindal is likeable? Have you seen him speak? And he’s very unpopular in his home state. ---
**Author:** ![dalej42](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/67e7ee/32.png) [@dalej42](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/dalej42)\ **Post date:** [March 16, 2014, 5:20pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/hope-for-the-republican-party-of-the-future/683423/50 "2014-03-16T17:20:21Z")
The Republicans haven’t won a presidential election by more than one state since 1988. They’ve only won the popular vote once during those elections. Obama kept all his states he won in 2008 except for Indiana (a fluke in 2008) and North Carolina (basically a tie in 2008 and 2012) during the reelection in 2012. The 2014 Senate races are going to be tough, the Democrats are defending some marginal seats they won during the 2008 landslide. Still, the Republicans pretty much have to win all their winnable races and avoid comments about witchcraft and rape along the way. ---
**Author:** ![DigitalC](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/ebca7d/32.png) [@DigitalC](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DigitalC)\ **Post date:** [March 16, 2014, 5:42pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/hope-for-the-republican-party-of-the-future/683423/51 "2014-03-16T17:42:04Z")
It will be close if the Republicans manage to not throw away any seats to the Dems, but honestly that is the only reason we have the senate in the first place. We should’ve lost the senate in 2010 and 2012, expecting them to throw away enough races to keep it a third time might just be wishful thinking. ---
**Author:** ![Martin\_Hyde](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/47e85d/32.png) [@Martin\_Hyde](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Martin_Hyde)\ **Post date:** [March 16, 2014, 6:24pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/hope-for-the-republican-party-of-the-future/683423/52 "2014-03-16T18:24:43Z")
As for the Senate, the Democrats have a lot of vulnerable candidates and at least one open seat I’m aware of where the GOP is going to win after the Dem retires (current House Rep Shelley Capito of WV will almost certainly win Democrat Rockefeller’s Senate seat.) I think the GOP will gain 4-5 seats, but a +6 swing is a big order and I doubt it happens. Plus even if the GOP captures 6 Dem seats there’s a decent chance we lose 1-2 incumbents (especially McConnell), so net +6 is probably not going to happen. It’s a bad cyclical year for the Democrats as it’s six years after the Obama landslide so a lot of the Senators up are Democrats who probably wouldn’t have beaten their Republican challengers otherwise. The GOP also shot themselves in the foot in the past cycle, Todd Akin should have easily beaten McCaskill and was polling ahead of her until he started talking about rape. I also believe it was Delaware (going by memory) where a viable Republican Senate candidate lost to a Tea Party loon in the primary and lost the general that could have conceivably been winnable. ---
**Author:** ![BrainGlutton](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/82dd89/32.png) [@BrainGlutton](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/BrainGlutton)\ **Post date:** [March 16, 2014, 6:36pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/hope-for-the-republican-party-of-the-future/683423/53 "2014-03-16T18:36:03Z")
> [@adaher](#): > > No, the GOP is honest about where it’s been. The Democrats are the ones that try to whitewash their history. 😕 I’ve never heard a Dem deny that they were once the anti-civil-rights party, or make excuses for the Dixiecrats. ---
**Author:** ![BrainGlutton](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/82dd89/32.png) [@BrainGlutton](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/BrainGlutton)\ **Post date:** [March 16, 2014, 6:45pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/hope-for-the-republican-party-of-the-future/683423/54 "2014-03-16T18:45:35Z")
> [@iiandyiiii](#): > > Jindal is likeable? Have you seen him speak? And he’s very unpopular in his home state. [He’s also a little crazy.](http://rationalwiki.org/wiki/Bobby_Jindal#Outright_wingnuttery) ---
**Author:** ![BrainGlutton](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/82dd89/32.png) [@BrainGlutton](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/BrainGlutton)\ **Post date:** [March 16, 2014, 6:46pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/hope-for-the-republican-party-of-the-future/683423/55 "2014-03-16T18:46:48Z")
> [@dalej42](#): > > The Republicans haven’t won a presidential election by more than one state since 1988. They’ve only won the popular vote once during those elections. Obama kept all his states he won in 2008 except for Indiana (a fluke in 2008) and North Carolina (basically a tie in 2008 and 2012) during the reelection in 2012. > > The 2014 Senate races are going to be tough, the Democrats are defending some marginal seats they won during the 2008 landslide. Still, the Republicans pretty much have to win all their winnable races and avoid comments about witchcraft and rape along the way. Note to RNC: Drop “Rape the Witches!” from this year’s list of campaign slogans. ---
**Author:** ![adaher](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/dec6dc/32.png) [@adaher](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/adaher)\ **Post date:** [March 16, 2014, 8:27pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/hope-for-the-republican-party-of-the-future/683423/56 "2014-03-16T20:27:54Z")
> [@BrainGlutton](#): > > 😕 I’ve never heard a Dem deny that they were once the anti-civil-rights party, or make excuses for the Dixiecrats. The whitewash is in claiming that the Dixiecrats became Republicans, when the vast majority remained Democrats in good standing. ---
**Author:** ![Revtim](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/revtim/32/1042_2.png) [@Revtim](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Revtim)\ **Post date:** [March 16, 2014, 8:40pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/hope-for-the-republican-party-of-the-future/683423/57 "2014-03-16T20:40:58Z")
> [@BrainGlutton](#): > > [He’s also a little crazy.](http://rationalwiki.org/wiki/Bobby_Jindal#Outright_wingnuttery) From that link: “A member of his prayer group who was suffering from emotional distress after the suicide of a close friend and her own skin cancer diagnosis was allegedly surrounded by “sulfuric smells” and acting very strangely.” I’ve had success using ‘Beano’ to prevent that type of thing… ---
**Author:** ![adaher](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/dec6dc/32.png) [@adaher](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/adaher)\ **Post date:** [March 16, 2014, 8:45pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/hope-for-the-republican-party-of-the-future/683423/58 "2014-03-16T20:45:18Z")
If I can’t have Jindal, I don’t know then. I like a few other Republicans, but I just can’t see any of them beating Clinton unless Obama becomes such a millstone around her neck that she can’t win. Maybe Giuliani will decide to try again if Christie is too damaged. ---
**Author:** ![Martin\_Hyde](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/47e85d/32.png) [@Martin\_Hyde](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Martin_Hyde)\ **Post date:** [March 16, 2014, 10:25pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/hope-for-the-republican-party-of-the-future/683423/59 "2014-03-16T22:25:36Z")
I think Christie pre-bridge gate could have, but I think he’d have had a hard time getting nominated. Now even if he gets nominated I think it’s too easy to tar him out of the race. Hillary is a formidable Democrat with a combination of broad policy appeal (she’s even more to the center than Obama and is possibly borderline hawkish on foreign policy, her and Biden apparently sparred constantly over Biden’s relatively doveish views), and deep, deep old school political organization ability. She got beat in the primaries in part by focusing on the wrong races and not fully realizing that it’s a delegate race versus a state victory total race, and by a candidate who had an organization using lots of new media and young supporters. But that happens to her once, next time around she’s going to have all the strengths from her first campaign **plus** all the know how and etc that Obama used to beat her and win in the 2008/2012 general on top of that. ---
**Author:** ![adaher](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/dec6dc/32.png) [@adaher](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/adaher)\ **Post date:** [March 16, 2014, 11:19pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/hope-for-the-republican-party-of-the-future/683423/60 "2014-03-16T23:19:12Z")
I think she still has the same weaknesses and would still be susceptible to defeat by an inspiring opponent in the primaries. Democratic voters love the sizzle. That’s why in a 2008 campaign that featured several extremely well qualified candidates and three junior Senators, guess who they got excited over? [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/hope-for-the-republican-party-of-the-future/683423.md?page=2) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/hope-for-the-republican-party-of-the-future/683423.md?page=4)