# Horse racing odds Q **URL:** \ **Category:** The Game Room\ **Tags:** horse-sports\ **Created:** [June 29, 2026, 4:27pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/horse-racing-odds-q/1031273 "2026-06-29T16:27:17Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 3
**Author:** ![hajario](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/hajario/32/171_2.png) [@hajario](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/hajario)\ **Post date:** [July 1, 2026, 4:05pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/horse-racing-odds-q/1031273/41 "2026-07-01T16:05:28Z")
> [@Stanislaus](#): > > Why does this bet exist? Surely only to prey on the ignorant. It’s “heads I win, tails you lose” in the wild. You don’t get it. In literally every bet you could lose everything or win something. In this bet there is a range from losing everything, losing partially or winning a range from a little to a lot. ---
**Author:** ![Chronos](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/chronos/32/134_2.png) [@Chronos](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Chronos)\ **Post date:** [July 1, 2026, 4:08pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/horse-racing-odds-q/1031273/42 "2026-07-01T16:08:09Z")
> [@Stanislaus](#): > > The fact that these bets continue to exists speaks to a frankly terrifying asymmetry in domain-specific competence between the two counterparties. Or to put it another way, there’s a sucker born every minute. I think it’s just that some box bets have a negative value, even if you win. Presumably these are the ones where there are far-and-away favorites. But there are also some of these box bets where there is money in the race, so they continue to be offered in general. And with the way that the payoffs are constantly changing in a parimutual system, you can’t identify a priori which bets are going to be the pointless ones, and so you offer all of them. ---
**Author:** ![Spoons](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/spoons/32/3141_2.png) [@Spoons](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Spoons)\ **Post date:** [July 1, 2026, 4:11pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/horse-racing-odds-q/1031273/43 "2026-07-01T16:11:41Z")
> [@Stanislaus](#): > > I mean, I’m probably misunderstanding but it seems like @Spoons is saying that even if you win such a bet, that is, all the horses you said would win, win, then you lose money net because the total return is less than your stake. > > Why does this bet exist? Surely only to prey on the ignorant. It’s “heads I win, tails you lose” in the wild. I think that you are misunderstanding. Let’s see if I can clear this up. What I’m talking about is “boxing” my wager. This was discussed a little above, but really, it’s just a shortcut to call a number of bets in one sentence. I could head to the window and say, “Saratoga in the fifth, $1 exactor A over B; Saratoga in the fifth, $1 exactor A over C; Saratoga in the fifth, $1 exactor B over A; Saratoga in the fifth, $1 exactor B over C,” and so on. But I don’t have to do that. Instead, I step up to the window and say, “Saratoga in the fifth, $1 exactor box A, B, and C.” Boom, the bet is booked. It costs me $6, but—and this is important—it is six separate bets. That’s why it is possible to win, but also lose. Let’s say that given my hypothetical above, my selection of A over C wins, but that was only one of my bets. I made six, and paid $1 for each. A over C pays $4.70, so I won. But I’m also out $1.30, so I also lose. That’s why we look for value. The tote displays _probables_, which is an approximation of what a given combination will pay. I might see that the A over C combination will pay $20, while C over A will pay $22. That’s good value, and worth a try. But if I see that A over C will pay $4, and C over A will pay $5, that’s not good value. Especially if I’m boxing three horses, for an outlay of $6. Best to sit this one out. Nobody wants a net negative, but they can happen if you don’t watch the probables and look to see if there is any value in your selections. ETA: Last weekend, I placed a $1 boxed exactor on two horses. Outlay of $2. My selections came home, and paid me $33.50. Yep, there was value there. ---
**Author:** ![HeyHomie](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/heyhomie/32/207_2.png) [@HeyHomie](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/HeyHomie)\ **Post date:** [July 1, 2026, 4:20pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/horse-racing-odds-q/1031273/44 "2026-07-01T16:20:46Z")
@Spoons I’ve always been fascinated by horse racing (and betting on horse racing), and I find your information and your stories invaluable. Over the course of your life, would you say that you’re ahead or behind in aggregate? ---
**Author:** ![Spoons](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/spoons/32/3141_2.png) [@Spoons](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Spoons)\ **Post date:** [July 1, 2026, 4:26pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/horse-racing-odds-q/1031273/45 "2026-07-01T16:26:39Z")
That’s a tough one, but if pressed, I’d say I’m at about evens. Maybe a little on the minus side, but not much. Some seasons, I’m unbelievably successful; and in some, I cannot seem to win at all. I’ve cashed some great wins, in the three figures, but those have been rare. Good question though. ---
**Author:** ![DesertDog](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/desertdog/32/11503_2.png) [@DesertDog](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DesertDog)\ **Post date:** [July 1, 2026, 4:27pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/horse-racing-odds-q/1031273/46 "2026-07-01T16:27:35Z")
> [@Spoons](#): > > Ha! I actually played Benny Southstreet in a community theatre production of _Guys and Dolls_, years ago. And yes, I was one of the tinhorns on “Fugue for Tinhorns.” For others’ edification [here’s the movie version](https://youtu.be/BAIlVCStp3c) with Stubby Kaye, Johnny Silver, and Dan Dayton. > [@Spoons](#): > > I also had to explain to my fellow actors just what all the racing slang in “Fugue” meant. You forgot, _And just a minute, boys._ _I’ve got the feed box noise_ _It says the great-grandfather was [Equipoise](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Equipoise_(horse))_🙂 I have the lyrics in a 3-column doc but I’m not sure I got the overlaps in the middle quite right. With the betting pools being pulled in from all over the country – world, even – it’s tough making a living in just win, place, and show anymore. You have to play the exotics. I kind of specialize with exacta box bets but, as you said, with mixed results. ---
**Author:** ![Spoons](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/spoons/32/3141_2.png) [@Spoons](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Spoons)\ **Post date:** [July 1, 2026, 4:31pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/horse-racing-odds-q/1031273/47 "2026-07-01T16:31:29Z")
You did just fine. For the sake of completeness, let’s explain these. Feed box noise: Gossip from those who work on the backside. Stable hands, grooms, owners, trainers, and anybody else who hangs out there. Great-grandfather was Equipoise: This is venturing into pedigree handicapping territory. The horse has ancestors who have been successful in racing. ---
**Author:** ![Chronos](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/chronos/32/134_2.png) [@Chronos](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Chronos)\ **Post date:** [July 1, 2026, 4:43pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/horse-racing-odds-q/1031273/48 "2026-07-01T16:43:49Z")
Although, I’d kind of want to know who the other seven great-grandparents were. Yeah, yeah, so the horse had one great ancestor, but then, great racehorses have lots of descendants, so lots of horses end up with one great ancestor. ---
**Author:** ![DPRK](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/4491bb/32.png) [@DPRK](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DPRK)\ **Post date:** [July 1, 2026, 4:45pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/horse-racing-odds-q/1031273/49 "2026-07-01T16:45:09Z")
Can we fix the title, while we are here? ---
**Author:** ![kenobi\_65](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/kenobi_65/32/13178_2.png) [@kenobi\_65](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/kenobi_65)\ **Post date:** [July 1, 2026, 4:50pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/horse-racing-odds-q/1031273/50 "2026-07-01T16:50:39Z")
> [@DPRK](#): > > Can we fix the title I just flagged your note to the mod team for a change – what needs to be fixed? (Mods don’t automatically read every post, and for a request like this, it’s better to flag it so they see it) ---
**Author:** ![DPRK](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/4491bb/32.png) [@DPRK](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DPRK)\ **Post date:** [July 1, 2026, 4:54pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/horse-racing-odds-q/1031273/51 "2026-07-01T16:54:12Z")
It includes some unusual variant spelling. ---
**Author:** ![Spoons](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/spoons/32/3141_2.png) [@Spoons](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Spoons)\ **Post date:** [July 1, 2026, 5:03pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/horse-racing-odds-q/1031273/52 "2026-07-01T17:03:31Z")
> [@Chronos](#): > > Although, I’d kind of want to know who the other seven great-grandparents were. Yeah, yeah, so the horse had one great ancestor, but then, great racehorses have lots of descendants, so lots of horses end up with one great ancestor. Yes, exactly. I think of one of the regulars at my local track, who does pedigree handicapping. He shows up with a pile of paperwork, a lot of it being horse family trees, and loves to tell me that I should have bet Horse X, because he’s got Northern Dancer in his pedigree. Well, yeah, but he’s also got 127 other ancestors, maybe only three that I’ve heard of. ---
**Author:** ![HeyHomie](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/heyhomie/32/207_2.png) [@HeyHomie](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/HeyHomie)\ **Post date:** [July 1, 2026, 5:15pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/horse-racing-odds-q/1031273/53 "2026-07-01T17:15:08Z")
@Spoons do you ever participate in, or encounter, syndicates? ---
**Author:** ![Spoons](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/spoons/32/3141_2.png) [@Spoons](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Spoons)\ **Post date:** [July 1, 2026, 5:28pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/horse-racing-odds-q/1031273/54 "2026-07-01T17:28:52Z")
If you’re talking about owners’ syndicates, then yes. I know a few people who are involved in them. For those not in the know, a _syndicate_ is a group of people who have pooled their money to buy a horse. Some syndicates are large, and own a number of horses; but a syndicate need not be large. Many consist of two to four or six people, who own a horse or two. They share in the horse’s winnings, which is how you make money as an owner (or, in the case of a syndicate, a part-owner). I was invited to join a syndicate years ago. The buy-in was $10,000, which I had, and the horse sounded like it might be a good investment. Looked great on paper, actually. But I also needed a new car, and my $10,000 would certainly help with that. In the end, the car won out. And then, two weeks after I told the syndicate “no, thank you” the horse broke down in a race, and had to be humanely put down. That’s one of the dangers of being an owner or part-owner; you can lose a lot with a single misstep. Meanwhile, I ended up driving that car for 12 years. I got a lot more value out of that $10,000 with my car than I would have with that horse. That’s why I’m a little leery about being invited to join a syndicate. I’m happy enough being a player, where the losses are often a lot smaller than what a horse costs. ---
**Author:** ![Chronos](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/chronos/32/134_2.png) [@Chronos](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Chronos)\ **Post date:** [July 1, 2026, 5:32pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/horse-racing-odds-q/1031273/55 "2026-07-01T17:32:13Z")
On the other hand, if you had a syndicate with ten times as many owners, but which owned ten horses, there’d be the same buy-in cost but a lot less risk from something bad happening to one horse. ---
**Author:** ![HeyHomie](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/heyhomie/32/207_2.png) [@HeyHomie](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/HeyHomie)\ **Post date:** [July 1, 2026, 5:32pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/horse-racing-odds-q/1031273/56 "2026-07-01T17:32:30Z")
I think I’ve been misunderstood. I’m talking about the betting syndicates that Beyer wrote of in _Beyer on Speed_ (I think), wherein, say, Big Tony is collecting money to pool so that he can make broader and more elaborate wagers on long-shot exotics, like Pick Six. > [@Gemini AI](#): > > **How It Works** > > - **Pooled Funds:** Members contribute to a shared bankroll. > - **Proportional Profits:** Winnings are split based on each person’s financial share. > - **Increased Leverage:** Larger bankrolls allow the group to cover more combinations in complex bets like the Pick 6. > - **Professional Management:** Many syndicates are run by expert handicappers or use advanced statistical algorithms. [[1](https://bluebloodthoroughbreds.com.au/how-does-a-racehorse-syndicate-work/), [2](https://ironbetsracing.com/horse-racing-bet-types-explained/), [3](https://www.saratogaracetrack.com/about-horse-racing/glossary-of-betting-terms/), [4](https://www.racingbetter.co.uk/news/2024/12/rb633_horse_racing_betting_techniques.html)] That’s the type I was asking about. I’d like to participate in one someday, but the number of men I know with names like “Big Tony” is zero, if you get my drift. ---
**Author:** ![DPRK](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/4491bb/32.png) [@DPRK](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DPRK)\ **Post date:** [July 1, 2026, 5:36pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/horse-racing-odds-q/1031273/57 "2026-07-01T17:36:03Z")
“horses don’t bet on people and neither do I” — Charles Bukowski I wonder if he ended up making money at the track… "My god, every time you get drunk you start talking about the HORSES! You talk about the HORSES for hours! My God, what a dull subject! And then you write POEMS about the HORSES! My God, you don’t know how dull your HORSE poems are! Nobody understands them! " ---
**Author:** ![Spoons](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/spoons/32/3141_2.png) [@Spoons](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Spoons)\ **Post date:** [July 1, 2026, 5:36pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/horse-racing-odds-q/1031273/58 "2026-07-01T17:36:32Z")
Ah, okay, I understand what you are talking about. Yes, I have heard of them, but no, I choose not to participate. There is a guy at my local race track/book who likes to make the rounds, asking people if they’d like to pool funds to play a superfecta or a parlay, but he doesn’t get much action. Maybe if his name was “Big Tony,” he would. 😉 ETA: @Chronos : Good point on larger syndicates with multi-horse stables. ---
**Author:** ![DesertDog](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/desertdog/32/11503_2.png) [@DesertDog](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DesertDog)\ **Post date:** [July 2, 2026, 6:20am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/horse-racing-odds-q/1031273/59 "2026-07-02T06:20:15Z")
> [@Spoons](#): > > loves to tell me that I should have bet Horse X, because he’s got Northern Dancer in his pedigree. Well, yeah, but he’s also got 127 other ancestors, maybe only three that I’ve heard of. Plus, an estimated [75% of thoroughbreds running today](https://pastthewire.com/native-dancers-legacy-lives-on/) have Native Dancer in their ancestry, often several times. > Native Dancer became so popular that his blood began to dominate the Thoroughbred breed. His 306 foals went on to produce such legends as 1964 Derby and Preakness winner Northern Dancer, who himself sired 645 named foals; Mr. Prospector, sire of 1,195 foals; and Exclusive Native, who sired 519 foals. > > The numbers multiplied with each generation; by 2008, 75 percent of the breed had Native Dancer in their [bloodlines](https://pastthewire.com/native-dancer-close-to-perfection/). That same year, all 20 starters in the Kentucky Derby had Native Dancer in their genes; so have 20 of the last 21 Derby winners[\*]. in 2018, all the Kentucky Derby entrants had Mr. Prospector in their DNA. \*The article is 2019. I don’t know if this has held up in subsequent years. ---
**Author:** ![Spoons](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/spoons/32/3141_2.png) [@Spoons](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Spoons)\ **Post date:** [July 2, 2026, 8:22am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/horse-racing-odds-q/1031273/60 "2026-07-02T08:22:56Z")
That’s a good point. Go back far enough, and you’ll find a lot of common ancestors. I well recall Dance Smartly (1991 Queen’s Plate winner, among others), whose grandsire was Northern Dancer, and by extension, Native Dancer. I was actually at Woodbine that July day in 1991 when she won the Plate, and got to see her win against the boys in a GI (Grade 1), 1.25 miles, same as the Kentucky Derby. It was the Dancer line that got her there. Do I look at pedigrees? Sure, but only as far as the Form tells me—typically grandparents. After that, it’ll take a big name to make me pay attention. I was at the track today. It was Canada Day, a national holiday, and Century Mile (abbreviated “Ctm” in Edmonton) was running. So I played it. I am unfamiliar with the track, but managed to make a small profit. But this leads to a very important point: it is not enough to know how to play the horses. You have to know how to play the track. Ctm is not really weird, but it does have an awkward 7 furlong chute. Santa Anita (SA) has a downhill turf course with a right-hand turn that crosses the dirt strip. Woodbine (WO) has a turf course that does not cross the dirt strip, but does have a couple of sharp turns. Kentucky Downs (KD) is a bit hilly, with a right-hand turn. Lethbridge (Lbg) has a clubhouse turn that is not a perfect half-circle, and is only a half-mile. Hastings (Hst) was 5/8 mile. Greenwood (Grd) was 7/8 mile, with extremely tight turns—you had to learn how to study the Form in sprints to see who could break first and hit the turn first, and that would make a good selection. Point is, that unlike NFL fields or newer MLB baseball stadiums (Fenway and Wrigley excepted) or NHL hockey rinks, all tracks are not created equal. You have to learn how to play each, and to deal with their quirks. A 1 1/16 mile race at Lbg is going to be a lot different from the same distance at WO. ETA: Looking forward to Saratoga (Sar) getting started on its summer meet this weekend. Saratoga is tough, it has so many changes between when fields are set and the race goes off that it is always a challenge. We horseplayers have a saying: “If you can win at Saratoga, you’re doing it right.” I have won at Saratoga. 🙂 [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/horse-racing-odds-q/1031273.md?page=2) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/horse-racing-odds-q/1031273.md?page=4)