FWIW, I have heard that among serious horse-breeders, the point is not to breed the horses so as to compete in the races. The point is to compete in the races so as to work out which horses to breed.
Also, a fun illustration of the importance of specific and contextualised knowledge is the horse-track stories of Damon Runyon, in which characters are always scrabbling around for that little bit of inside gen that will give them the edge.
There is another variable. Owners and trainers will sometimes ask a jockey not to try too hard at a minor race. The idea is to affect the calculations illustrated above and improve the handicap and the odds in a more valuable race.
Of course, it takes a good jockey to get away with it.
More accurately, you can get a statistically-optimal prediction for any given set of variables in your model. But “optimal” doesn’t imply “good”, or necessarily even “good enough”.
One thing I don’t get about horse racing is that (at least it seems to me), it isn’t just the bettor making a guess about the results of a race. Isn’t there also a component of trying to figure out how everyone else is going to bet as well? In other words, I might place a bet on Horse C to win, with odds of 5 to 1, because I think Horse C actually has a 1/3 chance of winning. So I place my bet, $10 to win $50. Unfortunately, lots of other people had the same idea, and by the time the race starts, the odds have changed and now that $10 is only paying $25, making it no longer a good bet. Doesn’t that sort of thing happen in horse racing?
It happens all the time. If you’ve ever heard an experienced horseplayer say, “Nice price on number 3 right now, but you know he’s gonna shorten by the time they go off,” that’s exactly what the player is referring to.
The answer to your question really lies in how the parimutuel system works. We call the numbers displayed on the tote board “odds,” which is fine, but it helps if you think of them as “ratios,” because that’s exactly what they are: money bet on one horse against money bet on all others combined.
Thoroughly explaining how a parimutuel system works would take more bandwidth than I’d be allowed here, but briefly, all money wagered goes into a pool, after the track and government takeouts. There are Win pools, Place pools, Show pools, and so on for the exotic wagers. Pool ratios are constantly being calculated, and the results of those calculations are shown on the tote board as they change.
Because they do change as people keep wagering, which they do right up until the gate opens and the horses start to race. Experienced players will often wait until three to five minutes before post time to wager (“Minutes to Post” or “MTP” is displayed on the tote board), because they want to see the horses in the paddock and post parades, and that time period is when the tote odds can change a lot.
This is where horse race gambling is different from casino games. I know I’m going to get 35-1 on a single number at roulette. At the crap table, I know I’m going to get 6-5 if I back up my pass line bet with an odds bet and the point is 6 or 8. But in racing, the best I can get is a general idea, because constant change is the nature of how the parimutuel system works.
I know it’s Valentine,
the morning work looks fine
Besides the jockey’s brother’s a friend of mine
Needs race, needs race, this guy says the horse needs race
If he says the horse needs race, needs race, needs race.
Ha! I actually played Benny Southstreet in a community theatre production of Guys and Dolls, years ago. And yes, I was one of the tinhorns on “Fugue for Tinhorns.”
I also had to explain to my fellow actors just what all the racing slang in “Fugue” meant. “Morning works” don’t mean this morning, but since workouts (as I referred to earlier) typically happen in the mornings, the phrase is apt.
“His name is Valentine and on the morning line, this guy’s got him listed at five to nine”—the morning line is an educated guess by the track handicapper (today, more likely a computer) as to the odds that the horse will go off at.
“In the Telegraph”—the Morning Telegraph was another racing publication, like the Daily Racing Form. The Form eventually bought the Telegraph. “He wins it by a half”—the horse won by a half-length, about four feet. “Can do”—the horse is suited to this race’s conditions, and is a good selection to win. Heck, I use “can do” in the commentary to my selections.
Racing has its own slang, and it is practically incomprehensible to the outsider. “Worked five in one-flat and three under hand two weeks ago, going six today, can do if comes out of the far turn in the four-five path and has the gas and can find the gear.” My racetrack cronies understand that perfectly; but I’m sure it would be confusing to those unfamiliar with racing.
I get the impression that, while something can be worked out, there are so many variables that an overly simple prediction and betting system will be hard pressed even to break even.
I should touch on this, because it is important.
One of the questions that we horseplayers have to answer before betting on any race is, “Is there value in this race?” What that boils down to is, “Do we want to wager $2 in order to win ten cents?” Or, to put in in more round numbers, “Do we want to wager $10 in order to win fifty cents?”
This becomes especially important in exotics, where we can box or wheel combinations of horses. I can box three horses in my exactor on a base bet of $1 (total outlay of $6), and my selections win—and I end up with a net negative (say, a return of $4.70 on an outlay of $6). That’s not good; there is no value there.
This is where your “optimal,” “good,” and “good enough” come into play. Sure, I know that Horses A and B are going to finish first and second. But will they pay anything? My outlay on a $2 box A+B is $4, and will I net less than that? Maybe $3.50? There is no value there, so I just don’t play.
In racing, winning can also mean losing.
Is that even legal or on par with the regulations?
At very least it seems unethical to me.
I’m shocked, shocked to find that something against regulations might be happening at this establishment.
The fact that these bets continue to exists speaks to a frankly terrifying asymmetry in domain-specific competence between the two counterparties. Or to put it another way, there’s a sucker born every minute.
Seriously, between market forces and regulation, bets like this shouldn’t exist.
I meant to ask, do people actually make those 6-way, or 15-way, etc., wagers? Is it because they think A, B, and C will win but they do not care to bank on a specific order? Is it ever worth it?
Depends on the odds, no? Not that these sound like appropriate bets for novices.
Let’s use this year’s Kentucky Derby as an example. A superfecta bet would cost $1, and you’re betting that horses 19-1-22-12 will finish in that order. A decent bettor will instead bet $16 on the race - effectively betting a buck on each possible combination. So yes, the punter is not banking on a specific order.
In this particular case, the superfecta paid out $94,489.95, so yes, on a $16 bet that would have been quite worth it indeed. Note, however, that this year’s result included two very VERY long long-shots.
And yes, bettors often “box,” as it’s called, their bets. A boxed $1 exacta bet on horses 5 and 6 (a $2 total bet) will pay if they come in first and second, in any order. A boxed $1 trifecta bet on horses 5, 6 and 7 (a $9 total bet) will pay if they come in first, second and third, in any order. And a boxed $1 superfecta bet (a $16 bet) on horses 5, 6, 7 and 8 will pay if they come in first, second, third and fourth, in any order.
Do winning, boxed exotic bets pay less than the outlay? Absolutely. It’s not uncommon for a boxed $1 superfecta bet ($16) to win and only come out with, say, $5.
A smart bettor will only put money on a boxed superfecta bet, therefore, that is going to return more than $16 even in the worst-case scenario.
I’m not a student of the way American betting works and I find the parimutuel system ludicrous but surely 2 any order would be $2, 3 any order would be $6 and 4 any order would be $24
I mean, I’m probably misunderstanding but it seems like @Spoons is saying that even if you win such a bet, that is, all the horses you said would win, win, then you lose money net because the total return is less than your stake.
Why does this bet exist? Surely only to prey on the ignorant. It’s “heads I win, tails you lose” in the wild.
Do you get fixed odds in Hong Kong, Canada, Europe?
He also said you have to decide in the final 3–5 minutes whether to actually place a bet, or abort (because it will be a losing proposition even if it wins)
Not in Canada. Fixed-odds bookies are illegal. Really, Canadian and American racing are so integrated, that the border isn’t there at all when it comes to racing. Rules and regulations are the same, Canada uses yards, furlongs, and miles just like the US does (otherwise all records would be a mess), horses ship back and forth between countries with ease, and so on. And of course, just as fixed-odds bookies are illegal in the US, so are they illegal in Canada. It’s all parimutuel.
I meant North American, which includes Canada. HK and Europe, yes of course you can place fixed odds.
Yeah I got the math wrong.