# Hotel of Heroes mafia

**URL:** <https://boards.straightdope.com/t/hotel-of-heroes-mafia/567544>\
**Category:** The Game Room\
**Created:** [January 14, 2011, 1:30am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/hotel-of-heroes-mafia/567544 "2011-01-14T01:30:48Z")\
**Posts on this page:** 20\
**Page:** 56

<div class="post-metadata">

**Author:** ![Suburban\_Plankton](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/suburban_plankton/32/219_2.png) [@Suburban\_Plankton](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Suburban_Plankton)\
**Post date:** [February 8, 2011, 4:20am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/hotel-of-heroes-mafia/567544/1101 "2011-02-08T04:20:50Z")

</div>

> [@Meeko](#):
>
> How do you reconcile that with nothing is confirmed until death, and sometimes not even then? In general, I follow your logic.
> 
> I’m 99.99% sure Skeezix is confirmed. You are at 100%. Not looking for an argument here, Chronos, just stating where I am with all of it.

On the subject of **Red Skeezix** , just after he claimed he said this:

> [@Red\_Skeezix](#):
>
> Also, I do not believe the detective should claim. I have reason to suspect that his role is cop/princess.

Pants was in fact cop/princess. Did \*\*Skeezix \*\*see something somewhere that the rest of us have missed, or was this statement predicated by the fact that he believed the setup of this game to be the same as Harry Potter, which had a similar role?

---

<div class="post-metadata">

**Author:** ![ComeToTheDarkSideWeHaveCookies](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/c/e9bcb4/32.png) [@ComeToTheDarkSideWeHaveCookies](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/ComeToTheDarkSideWeHaveCookies)\
**Post date:** [February 8, 2011, 4:23am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/hotel-of-heroes-mafia/567544/1102 "2011-02-08T04:23:12Z")

</div>

I’m guessing that Red was referring to the Harry Potter template.

---

<div class="post-metadata">

**Author:** ![Meeko](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/e495f1/32.png) [@Meeko](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Meeko)\
**Post date:** [February 8, 2011, 4:25am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/hotel-of-heroes-mafia/567544/1103 "2011-02-08T04:25:39Z")

</div>

> [@Suburban\_Plankton](#):
>
> I wouldn’t exactly define “a comment made by one player” as a “discussion”, but thank you for providing the context for your statement.

It’s moot, given that story is out of the game, but I think he knew what he was saying / typing. I could argue that this is a discussion board, but I think you would hate me even more than you already do. So I won’t.

- 

I do have my vote on you.

Today [that is, in game] you seem to be coming on real hard on me. It’s like a vocal minority. I see what you are saying, and you address the main point but you feel obligated to comment about me, by name.

I sense you want to snowball my non-cases against me.

I just cut to the chase, and overtook.  
Perhaps it is a bit out of place to ask this, as I’m the one with the vote out;

You said I gave you context. Are you still quite a bit bothered by me?

---

<div class="post-metadata">

**Author:** ![Suburban\_Plankton](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/suburban_plankton/32/219_2.png) [@Suburban\_Plankton](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Suburban_Plankton)\
**Post date:** [February 8, 2011, 4:50am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/hotel-of-heroes-mafia/567544/1104 "2011-02-08T04:50:27Z")

</div>

> [@Meeko](#):
>
> Perhaps it is a bit out of place to ask this, as I’m the one with the vote out;
> 
> You said I gave you context. Are you still quite a bit bothered by me?

I suppose I could withdraw the “quite a bit”.

Your FOS on Astral did seem to be a bit ‘out of the blue’ Today (and still not quite accurate in my mind), but I can’t count that too terribly much against you, as it seems we are all rather grasping at straws in this game. I was hoping we could get some discussion going, so at least I was somewhat successful in that…  
[OOG]

How was the first day at the new job?

[/OOG]

---

<div class="post-metadata">

**Author:** ![Chronos](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/chronos/32/134_2.png) [@Chronos](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Chronos)\
**Post date:** [February 8, 2011, 4:52am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/hotel-of-heroes-mafia/567544/1105 "2011-02-08T04:52:51Z")

</div>

Quoth **Meeko** :

> [@](#):
>
> How do you reconcile that with nothing is confirmed until death, and sometimes not even then? In general, I follow your logic.
> 
> I’m 99.99% sure Skeezix is confirmed. You are at 100%. Not looking for an argument here, Chronos, just stating where I am with all of it.

Put it this way: I am sufficiently convinced of **Skeezix** ’s Towniness that I cannot conceive of a situation where I would vote for him. Any level of confidence that leads to that result is, for game purposes, equivalent, and so I do not see a need to state my level of confidence with any greater precision.

---

<div class="post-metadata">

**Author:** ![Meeko](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/e495f1/32.png) [@Meeko](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Meeko)\
**Post date:** [February 8, 2011, 5:05am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/hotel-of-heroes-mafia/567544/1106 "2011-02-08T05:05:40Z")

</div>

> [@Suburban\_Plankton](#):
>
> I suppose I could withdraw the “quite a bit”.
> 
> Your FOS on Astral did seem to be a bit ‘out of the blue’ Today (and still not quite accurate in my mind), but I can’t count that too terribly much against you, as it seems we are all rather grasping at straws in this game. I was hoping we could get some discussion going, so at least I was somewhat successful in that…  
> [OOG]
> 
> How was the first day at the new job?
> 
> [/OOG]

I make it a point to FOS in orange. As it was not orange, it was not a FOS. It was a lose end I felt we could pick back up. Apparently I remembered the ““discussion”” as having more weight to it.  
\*\*  
OOG\*\*

Was just the drug test. There is going to be a two day orientation later this week, if not next. I apparently had no idea how formal my hire was going to be.

Did get the tour of the store today. Cookies will be glad to know that it looks as if they went out of the way to put in the deli and sushi bar. The store only has 8 aisles, but the deli and sushi are still there. I’m willing to bet they could have gotten a few more aisles if they dropped the Deli. … But then again, from what I gather, the Deli does more than enough in business to justify its inclusion.  
\*\*  
/OOG\*\*

---

<div class="post-metadata">

**Author:** ![Chronos](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/chronos/32/134_2.png) [@Chronos](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Chronos)\
**Post date:** [February 8, 2011, 6:29am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/hotel-of-heroes-mafia/567544/1107 "2011-02-08T06:29:03Z")

</div>

In other news: I just finished entering the first three Days of voting data into my vote-analysis program, and the results surprised me somewhat when I ran it. I think everyone here has seen me use this before, so I’ll just cut to the chase.

The program, as modified for this game:

[spoiler]

```auto

[noparse]
#include <stdio.h>
#define n_players 19	/* Number of players under analysis */
#define max_scum 4	/* Maximum expected number of Scum */
#define min_scum 4	/* Minimum expected number of Scum */
#define n_loop 262144	/* 2^n_players */
#define margin 0	/* How much Scummier than marginal the Scum are */

main()
{
  int players[n_players];	/* Stores the alignment of each player. 0 = Town, 1 = Scum */
  unsigned int players_binary;
  unsigned int players_binary_shifting;
  char names[n_players][26] = {"", "Wolverine","ushimitsudoki","These are my pants","special ed/Scuba","chipacabra","Suburban Plankton", "Mentalguy","Meeko","Astral Rejection", "One and Only Wanderers","ComeToDarkCookies","Red Skeezix", "Storyteller0910", "Oredigger77", "peekercpa", "Pleonast", "Idle Thoughts", "Chronos"};
  int n_scum;
  int buses; /* Number of times Scum voted for Scum */
  int attacks; /* Number of times Town voted for Scum */
  int i;
  int score[n_players];
  int total_scenarios = 0;
  int town_votes;
  int scum_votes;
  for(i=0;i<n_players;i++) score* = 0; /* Initialize everyone's score */

  for(players_binary=0; players_binary < n_loop; players_binary++) {
    players_binary_shifting = players_binary;
    for(i=0;i<n_players;i++) {
      players* = players_binary_shifting & 1; /* Populate the players[] array according to the value of players_binary */
      players_binary_shifting = players_binary_shifting >> 1;
    }

    n_scum = 0;
    buses = 0;
    attacks = 0;
    for(i=0;i<n_players;i++) {
      if(players* == 1) n_scum++;	/* Count the number of Scum */
    }
/* Count number of votes cast by Town */
    town_votes = 0;
    if(!players[0]) town_votes += 0; // cast 0
    if(!players[1]) town_votes += 6; // Wolverine cast 6
    if(!players[2]) town_votes += 6; // ushimitsudoki cast 6
    if(!players[3]) town_votes += 5; // These are my pants cast 5
    if(!players[4]) town_votes += 4; // special ed/Scuba cast 4
    if(!players[5]) town_votes += 3; // chipacabra cast 3
    if(!players[6]) town_votes += 4; // Suburban Plankton cast 4
    if(!players[7]) town_votes += 3; // Mentalguy cast 3
    if(!players[8]) town_votes += 5; // Meeko cast 5
    if(!players[9]) town_votes += 6; // Astral Rejection cast 6
    if(!players[10]) town_votes += 2; // One and Only Wanderers cast 2
    if(!players[11]) town_votes += 5; // ComeToDarkCookies cast 5
    if(!players[12]) town_votes += 5; // Red Skeezix cast 5
    if(!players[13]) town_votes += 5; // Storyteller0910 cast 5
    if(!players[14]) town_votes += 2; // Oredigger77 cast 2
    if(!players[15]) town_votes += 1; // peekercpa cast 1
    if(!players[16]) town_votes += 5; // Pleonast cast 5
    if(!players[17]) town_votes += 4; // Idle Thoughts cast 4
    if(!players[18]) town_votes += 4; // Chronos cast 4

/* Count number of votes cast by Scum */
    scum_votes = 0;
    if(players[0]) scum_votes += 0; // cast 0
    if(players[1]) scum_votes += 4; // Wolverine cast 4
    if(players[2]) scum_votes += 3; // ushimitsudoki cast 3
    if(players[3]) scum_votes += 3; // These are my pants cast 3
    if(players[4]) scum_votes += 2; // special ed/Scuba cast 2
    if(players[5]) scum_votes += 2; // chipacabra cast 2
    if(players[6]) scum_votes += 3; // Suburban Plankton cast 3
    if(players[7]) scum_votes += 2; // Mentalguy cast 2
    if(players[8]) scum_votes += 3; // Meeko cast 3
    if(players[9]) scum_votes += 3; // Astral Rejection cast 3
    if(players[10]) scum_votes += 2; // One and Only Wanderers cast 2
    if(players[11]) scum_votes += 3; // ComeToDarkCookies cast 3
    if(players[12]) scum_votes += 3; // Red Skeezix cast 3
    if(players[13]) scum_votes += 3; // Storyteller0910 cast 3
    if(players[14]) scum_votes += 1; // Oredigger77 cast 1
    if(players[15]) scum_votes += 1; // peekercpa cast 1
    if(players[16]) scum_votes += 2; // Pleonast cast 2
    if(players[17]) scum_votes += 3; // Idle Thoughts cast 3
    if(players[18]) scum_votes += 3; // Chronos cast 3

/* Count number of buses-- Only counting final votes */
    if(players[13] && players[14]) buses++;	// Storyteller0910 voted Oredigger77
    if(players[1] && players[14]) buses++;	// Wolverine voted Oredigger77
    if(players[9] && players[14]) buses++;	// Astral Rejection voted Oredigger77
    if(players[4] && players[14]) buses++;	// special ed/Scuba voted Oredigger77
    if(players[3] && players[14]) buses++;	// These are my pants voted Oredigger77
    if(players[16] && players[14]) buses++;	// Pleonast voted Oredigger77
    if(players[7] && players[14]) buses++;	// Mentalguy voted Oredigger77
    if(players[17] && players[2]) buses++;	// Idle Thoughts voted ushimitsudoki
    if(players[15] && players[2]) buses++;	// peekercpa voted ushimitsudoki
    if(players[11] && players[2]) buses++;	// ComeToDarkCookies voted ushimitsudoki
    if(players[10] && players[2]) buses++;	// One and Only Wanderers voted ushimitsudoki
    if(players[5] && players[2]) buses++;	// chipacabra voted ushimitsudoki
    if(players[14] && players[2]) buses++;	// Oredigger77 voted ushimitsudoki
    if(players[6] && players[17]) buses++;	// Suburban Plankton voted Idle Thoughts
    if(players[18] && players[4]) buses++;	// Chronos voted special ed/Scuba
    if(players[12] && players[18]) buses++;	// Red Skeezix voted Chronos
    if(players[1] && players[16]) buses++;	// Wolverine voted Pleonast
    if(players[2] && players[11]) buses++;	// ushimitsudoki voted ComeToDarkCookies
    if(players[8] && players[3]) buses++;	// Meeko voted These are my pants
    if(players[3] && players[16]) buses++;	// These are my pants voted Pleonast
    if(players[17] && players[16]) buses++;	// Idle Thoughts voted Pleonast
    if(players[10] && players[16]) buses++;	// One and Only Wanderers voted Pleonast
    if(players[8] && players[16]) buses++;	// Meeko voted Pleonast
    if(players[11] && players[16]) buses++;	// ComeToDarkCookies voted Pleonast
    if(players[18] && players[16]) buses++;	// Chronos voted Pleonast
    if(players[5] && players[16]) buses++;	// chipacabra voted Pleonast
    if(players[1] && players[16]) buses++;	// Wolverine voted Pleonast
    if(players[6] && players[5]) buses++;	// Suburban Plankton voted chipacabra
    if(players[13] && players[5]) buses++;	// Storyteller0910 voted chipacabra
    if(players[7] && players[5]) buses++;	// Mentalguy voted chipacabra
    if(players[9] && players[1]) buses++;	// Astral Rejection voted Wolverine
    if(players[16] && players[17]) buses++;	// Pleonast voted Idle Thoughts
    if(players[12] && players[7]) buses++;	// Red Skeezix voted Mentalguy
    if(players[2] && players[11]) buses++;	// ushimitsudoki voted ComeToDarkCookies
    if(players[4] && players[0]) buses++;	// special ed/Scuba voted 
    if(players[17] && players[2]) buses++;	// Idle Thoughts voted ushimitsudoki
    if(players[3] && players[2]) buses++;	// These are my pants voted ushimitsudoki
    if(players[11] && players[13]) buses++;	// ComeToDarkCookies voted Storyteller0910
    if(players[1] && players[2]) buses++;	// Wolverine voted ushimitsudoki
    if(players[8] && players[2]) buses++;	// Meeko voted ushimitsudoki
    if(players[18] && players[2]) buses++;	// Chronos voted ushimitsudoki
    if(players[9] && players[13]) buses++;	// Astral Rejection voted Storyteller0910
    if(players[6] && players[13]) buses++;	// Suburban Plankton voted Storyteller0910
    if(players[2] && players[13]) buses++;	// ushimitsudoki voted Storyteller0910
    if(players[13] && players[2]) buses++;	// Storyteller0910 voted ushimitsudoki
    if(players[12] && players[2]) buses++;	// Red Skeezix voted ushimitsudoki

/* Count number of attacks */

    if(!players[13] && players[14]) attacks++;	// Storyteller0910 voted Oredigger77
    if(!players[1] && players[14]) attacks++;	// Wolverine voted Oredigger77
    if(!players[9] && players[14]) attacks++;	// Astral Rejection voted Oredigger77
    if(!players[4] && players[14]) attacks++;	// special ed/Scuba voted Oredigger77
    if(!players[3] && players[14]) attacks++;	// These are my pants voted Oredigger77
    if(!players[16] && players[14]) attacks++;	// Pleonast voted Oredigger77
    if(!players[7] && players[14]) attacks++;	// Mentalguy voted Oredigger77
    if(!players[17] && players[2]) attacks++;	// Idle Thoughts voted ushimitsudoki
    if(!players[15] && players[2]) attacks++;	// peekercpa voted ushimitsudoki
    if(!players[11] && players[2]) attacks++;	// ComeToDarkCookies voted ushimitsudoki
    if(!players[10] && players[2]) attacks++;	// One and Only Wanderers voted ushimitsudoki
    if(!players[5] && players[2]) attacks++;	// chipacabra voted ushimitsudoki
    if(!players[14] && players[2]) attacks++;	// Oredigger77 voted ushimitsudoki
    if(!players[6] && players[17]) attacks++;	// Suburban Plankton voted Idle Thoughts
    if(!players[4] && players[17]) attacks++;	// special ed/Scuba voted Idle Thoughts
    if(!players[16] && players[17]) attacks++;	// Pleonast voted Idle Thoughts
    if(!players[18] && players[4]) attacks++;	// Chronos voted special ed/Scuba
    if(!players[2] && players[4]) attacks++;	// ushimitsudoki voted special ed/Scuba
    if(!players[3] && players[4]) attacks++;	// These are my pants voted special ed/Scuba
    if(!players[12] && players[18]) attacks++;	// Red Skeezix voted Chronos
    if(!players[11] && players[18]) attacks++;	// ComeToDarkCookies voted Chronos
    if(!players[8] && players[16]) attacks++;	// Meeko voted Pleonast
    if(!players[1] && players[16]) attacks++;	// Wolverine voted Pleonast
    if(!players[14] && players[16]) attacks++;	// Oredigger77 voted Pleonast
    if(!players[7] && players[11]) attacks++;	// Mentalguy voted ComeToDarkCookies
    if(!players[9] && players[11]) attacks++;	// Astral Rejection voted ComeToDarkCookies
    if(!players[2] && players[11]) attacks++;	// ushimitsudoki voted ComeToDarkCookies
    if(!players[8] && players[3]) attacks++;	// Meeko voted These are my pants
    if(!players[16] && players[15]) attacks++;	// Pleonast voted peekercpa
    if(!players[4] && players[15]) attacks++;	// special ed/Scuba voted peekercpa
    if(!players[16] && players[6]) attacks++;	// Pleonast voted Suburban Plankton
    if(!players[13] && players[6]) attacks++;	// Storyteller0910 voted Suburban Plankton
    if(!players[17] && players[6]) attacks++;	// Idle Thoughts voted Suburban Plankton
    if(!players[1] && players[13]) attacks++;	// Wolverine voted Storyteller0910
    if(!players[3] && players[16]) attacks++;	// These are my pants voted Pleonast
    if(!players[17] && players[16]) attacks++;	// Idle Thoughts voted Pleonast
    if(!players[10] && players[16]) attacks++;	// One and Only Wanderers voted Pleonast
    if(!players[8] && players[16]) attacks++;	// Meeko voted Pleonast
    if(!players[12] && players[16]) attacks++;	// Red Skeezix voted Pleonast
    if(!players[11] && players[16]) attacks++;	// ComeToDarkCookies voted Pleonast
    if(!players[18] && players[16]) attacks++;	// Chronos voted Pleonast
    if(!players[5] && players[16]) attacks++;	// chipacabra voted Pleonast
    if(!players[1] && players[16]) attacks++;	// Wolverine voted Pleonast
    if(!players[6] && players[5]) attacks++;	// Suburban Plankton voted chipacabra
    if(!players[11] && players[5]) attacks++;	// ComeToDarkCookies voted chipacabra
    if(!players[13] && players[5]) attacks++;	// Storyteller0910 voted chipacabra
    if(!players[7] && players[5]) attacks++;	// Mentalguy voted chipacabra
    if(!players[9] && players[1]) attacks++;	// Astral Rejection voted Wolverine
    if(!players[16] && players[17]) attacks++;	// Pleonast voted Idle Thoughts
    if(!players[12] && players[7]) attacks++;	// Red Skeezix voted Mentalguy
    if(!players[2] && players[11]) attacks++;	// ushimitsudoki voted ComeToDarkCookies
    if(!players[18] && players[2]) attacks++;	// Chronos voted ushimitsudoki
    if(!players[1] && players[2]) attacks++;	// Wolverine voted ushimitsudoki
    if(!players[5] && players[2]) attacks++;	// chipacabra voted ushimitsudoki
    if(!players[9] && players[4]) attacks++;	// Astral Rejection voted special ed/Scuba
    if(!players[4] && players[0]) attacks++;	// special ed/Scuba voted 
    if(!players[17] && players[2]) attacks++;	// Idle Thoughts voted ushimitsudoki
    if(!players[3] && players[2]) attacks++;	// These are my pants voted ushimitsudoki
    if(!players[8] && players[13]) attacks++;	// Meeko voted Storyteller0910
    if(!players[11] && players[13]) attacks++;	// ComeToDarkCookies voted Storyteller0910
    if(!players[1] && players[2]) attacks++;	// Wolverine voted ushimitsudoki
    if(!players[2] && players[11]) attacks++;	// ushimitsudoki voted ComeToDarkCookies
    if(!players[8] && players[2]) attacks++;	// Meeko voted ushimitsudoki
    if(!players[9] && players[1]) attacks++;	// Astral Rejection voted Wolverine
    if(!players[2] && players[1]) attacks++;	// ushimitsudoki voted Wolverine
    if(!players[18] && players[2]) attacks++;	// Chronos voted ushimitsudoki
    if(!players[6] && players[11]) attacks++;	// Suburban Plankton voted ComeToDarkCookies
    if(!players[12] && players[6]) attacks++;	// Red Skeezix voted Suburban Plankton
    if(!players[9] && players[13]) attacks++;	// Astral Rejection voted Storyteller0910
    if(!players[13] && players[9]) attacks++;	// Storyteller0910 voted Astral Rejection
    if(!players[3] && players[9]) attacks++;	// These are my pants voted Astral Rejection
    if(!players[6] && players[13]) attacks++;	// Suburban Plankton voted Storyteller0910
    if(!players[2] && players[13]) attacks++;	// ushimitsudoki voted Storyteller0910
    if(!players[13] && players[2]) attacks++;	// Storyteller0910 voted ushimitsudoki
    if(!players[12] && players[2]) attacks++;	// Red Skeezix voted ushimitsudoki
    if((min_scum<=n_scum) && (n_scum<=max_scum))	/* Throw out cases with wrong number of Scum */
    if((attacks*scum_votes) > (buses*town_votes + margin)) /* Throw out cases with Scum not voting Scummily */

/* Add other assumptions (delete or add any considered appropriate) */
    if(!players[0]) // Player 0 does not exist
    if(!players[12]) // Red Skeezix is a mason
    if(!players[14]) // Oredigger came up Town
    if(!players[15]) // peeker came up Town
    if(players[16]) // Pleo came up Scum
    if(!players[10]) // Wanderers came up Town
    if(!players[5]) // Chipacabra came up Town
    if(!players[7]) // Mentalguy came up Town
    if(!players[2]) // ushimitsudoki came up Town
    if(!players[3]) // Pants came up Town
    if(!players[13]) // Storyteller came up Town
    if(!players[11]) // Cookies wasn't Scum for first two Days
			{
      total_scenarios++;

/* Output all scenarios */
      for(i=0;i<n_players;i++) {
/* if(players* == 0) printf("%s ",names*); */
        if(players* == 1) { 
          printf("%s ",names*);
          score*++;
        }
      }
      printf("
");
    }
  }
  
/* Output scores */
  fprintf(stderr,"Total number of possibilities: %d
",total_scenarios);
  for(i=0;i<n_players;i++) fprintf(stderr,"%s	%d
",names*,score*);

  return(0);
}[/noparse]

```

[/spoiler]I’m assuming exactly four total Scum, since I think that the assumption that we’re mirroring Harry Potter is a safe one. **Cookies** presented something of a problem: I don’t really have a way for accounting for someone’s alignment changing partway through the game. However, I think it’s safe to assume at least that she was not Scum for two of the three Days I’m looking at, and my program really only looks at Scum vs. non-Scum, so I’m considering her Town for this analysis. I’m also counting **Red Skeezix** as confirmed, as well as (of course) all of the dead.

Now, for the results:

Wolverine special ed/Scuba Suburban Plankton Pleonast  
Wolverine Suburban Plankton Meeko Pleonast  
special ed/Scuba Suburban Plankton Meeko Pleonast  
Wolverine special ed/Scuba Astral Rejection Pleonast  
Wolverine Suburban Plankton Astral Rejection Pleonast  
special ed/Scuba Suburban Plankton Astral Rejection Pleonast  
special ed/Scuba Meeko Astral Rejection Pleonast  
Suburban Plankton Meeko Astral Rejection Pleonast  
special ed/Scuba Astral Rejection Pleonast Idle Thoughts  
Suburban Plankton Astral Rejection Pleonast Idle Thoughts  
Total number of possibilities: 10  
0  
Wolverine 4  
ushimitsudoki 0  
These are my pants 0  
special ed/Scuba 6  
chipacabra 0  
Suburban Plankton 7  
Mentalguy 0  
Meeko 4  
Astral Rejection 7  
One and Only Wanderers 0  
ComeToDarkCookies 0  
Red Skeezix 0  
Storyteller0910 0  
Oredigger77 0  
peekercpa 0  
Pleonast 10  
Idle Thoughts 2  
Chronos 0  
 In other words, my program thinks that there are only ten possible configurations of the Scum team at this point. This means that it thinks we’re pretty much at endgame right now. Now, its track record at endgame is much worse than in the mid-game, so I do _not_ intend to use these results as a basis for a vote. However, the scores of 7 out of 10 that it assigns to **Suburban** and **Astral** are both awfully high, and so I do intend to take a closer look at both of them (as well as possibly **Scuba** , with a score of 6/10). But that’ll have to wait for tomorrow; it’s getting too late tonight for a Wall of Words.

---

<div class="post-metadata">

**Author:** ![Chronos](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/chronos/32/134_2.png) [@Chronos](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Chronos)\
**Post date:** [February 8, 2011, 6:33am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/hotel-of-heroes-mafia/567544/1108 "2011-02-08T06:33:50Z")

</div>

And of course as soon as I post that I see a bug. Correction:  
Code:[spoiler]

```auto

[noparse]
#include <stdio.h>
#define n_players 19	/* Number of players under analysis */
#define max_scum 4	/* Maximum expected number of Scum */
#define min_scum 4	/* Minimum expected number of Scum */
#define n_loop 524288	/* 2^n_players */
#define margin 0	/* How much Scummier than marginal the Scum are */

main()
{
  int players[n_players];	/* Stores the alignment of each player. 0 = Town, 1 = Scum */
  unsigned int players_binary;
  unsigned int players_binary_shifting;
  char names[n_players][26] = {"", "Wolverine","ushimitsudoki","These are my pants","special ed/Scuba","chipacabra","Suburban Plankton", "Mentalguy","Meeko","Astral Rejection", "One and Only Wanderers","ComeToDarkCookies","Red Skeezix", "Storyteller0910", "Oredigger77", "peekercpa", "Pleonast", "Idle Thoughts", "Chronos"};
  int n_scum;
  int buses; /* Number of times Scum voted for Scum */
  int attacks; /* Number of times Town voted for Scum */
  int i;
  int score[n_players];
  int total_scenarios = 0;
  int town_votes;
  int scum_votes;
  for(i=0;i<n_players;i++) score* = 0; /* Initialize everyone's score */

  for(players_binary=0; players_binary < n_loop; players_binary++) {
    players_binary_shifting = players_binary;
    for(i=0;i<n_players;i++) {
      players* = players_binary_shifting & 1; /* Populate the players[] array according to the value of players_binary */
      players_binary_shifting = players_binary_shifting >> 1;
    }

    n_scum = 0;
    buses = 0;
    attacks = 0;
    for(i=0;i<n_players;i++) {
      if(players* == 1) n_scum++;	/* Count the number of Scum */
    }
/* Count number of votes cast by Town */
    town_votes = 0;
    if(!players[0]) town_votes += 0; // cast 0
    if(!players[1]) town_votes += 6; // Wolverine cast 6
    if(!players[2]) town_votes += 6; // ushimitsudoki cast 6
    if(!players[3]) town_votes += 5; // These are my pants cast 5
    if(!players[4]) town_votes += 4; // special ed/Scuba cast 4
    if(!players[5]) town_votes += 3; // chipacabra cast 3
    if(!players[6]) town_votes += 4; // Suburban Plankton cast 4
    if(!players[7]) town_votes += 3; // Mentalguy cast 3
    if(!players[8]) town_votes += 5; // Meeko cast 5
    if(!players[9]) town_votes += 6; // Astral Rejection cast 6
    if(!players[10]) town_votes += 2; // One and Only Wanderers cast 2
    if(!players[11]) town_votes += 5; // ComeToDarkCookies cast 5
    if(!players[12]) town_votes += 5; // Red Skeezix cast 5
    if(!players[13]) town_votes += 5; // Storyteller0910 cast 5
    if(!players[14]) town_votes += 2; // Oredigger77 cast 2
    if(!players[15]) town_votes += 1; // peekercpa cast 1
    if(!players[16]) town_votes += 5; // Pleonast cast 5
    if(!players[17]) town_votes += 4; // Idle Thoughts cast 4
    if(!players[18]) town_votes += 4; // Chronos cast 4

/* Count number of votes cast by Scum */
    scum_votes = 0;
    if(players[0]) scum_votes += 0; // cast 0
    if(players[1]) scum_votes += 4; // Wolverine cast 4
    if(players[2]) scum_votes += 3; // ushimitsudoki cast 3
    if(players[3]) scum_votes += 3; // These are my pants cast 3
    if(players[4]) scum_votes += 2; // special ed/Scuba cast 2
    if(players[5]) scum_votes += 2; // chipacabra cast 2
    if(players[6]) scum_votes += 3; // Suburban Plankton cast 3
    if(players[7]) scum_votes += 2; // Mentalguy cast 2
    if(players[8]) scum_votes += 3; // Meeko cast 3
    if(players[9]) scum_votes += 3; // Astral Rejection cast 3
    if(players[10]) scum_votes += 2; // One and Only Wanderers cast 2
    if(players[11]) scum_votes += 3; // ComeToDarkCookies cast 3
    if(players[12]) scum_votes += 3; // Red Skeezix cast 3
    if(players[13]) scum_votes += 3; // Storyteller0910 cast 3
    if(players[14]) scum_votes += 1; // Oredigger77 cast 1
    if(players[15]) scum_votes += 1; // peekercpa cast 1
    if(players[16]) scum_votes += 2; // Pleonast cast 2
    if(players[17]) scum_votes += 3; // Idle Thoughts cast 3
    if(players[18]) scum_votes += 3; // Chronos cast 3

/* Count number of buses-- Only counting final votes */
    if(players[13] && players[14]) buses++;	// Storyteller0910 voted Oredigger77
    if(players[1] && players[14]) buses++;	// Wolverine voted Oredigger77
    if(players[9] && players[14]) buses++;	// Astral Rejection voted Oredigger77
    if(players[4] && players[14]) buses++;	// special ed/Scuba voted Oredigger77
    if(players[3] && players[14]) buses++;	// These are my pants voted Oredigger77
    if(players[16] && players[14]) buses++;	// Pleonast voted Oredigger77
    if(players[7] && players[14]) buses++;	// Mentalguy voted Oredigger77
    if(players[17] && players[2]) buses++;	// Idle Thoughts voted ushimitsudoki
    if(players[15] && players[2]) buses++;	// peekercpa voted ushimitsudoki
    if(players[11] && players[2]) buses++;	// ComeToDarkCookies voted ushimitsudoki
    if(players[10] && players[2]) buses++;	// One and Only Wanderers voted ushimitsudoki
    if(players[5] && players[2]) buses++;	// chipacabra voted ushimitsudoki
    if(players[14] && players[2]) buses++;	// Oredigger77 voted ushimitsudoki
    if(players[6] && players[17]) buses++;	// Suburban Plankton voted Idle Thoughts
    if(players[18] && players[4]) buses++;	// Chronos voted special ed/Scuba
    if(players[12] && players[18]) buses++;	// Red Skeezix voted Chronos
    if(players[1] && players[16]) buses++;	// Wolverine voted Pleonast
    if(players[2] && players[11]) buses++;	// ushimitsudoki voted ComeToDarkCookies
    if(players[8] && players[3]) buses++;	// Meeko voted These are my pants
    if(players[3] && players[16]) buses++;	// These are my pants voted Pleonast
    if(players[17] && players[16]) buses++;	// Idle Thoughts voted Pleonast
    if(players[10] && players[16]) buses++;	// One and Only Wanderers voted Pleonast
    if(players[8] && players[16]) buses++;	// Meeko voted Pleonast
    if(players[11] && players[16]) buses++;	// ComeToDarkCookies voted Pleonast
    if(players[18] && players[16]) buses++;	// Chronos voted Pleonast
    if(players[5] && players[16]) buses++;	// chipacabra voted Pleonast
    if(players[1] && players[16]) buses++;	// Wolverine voted Pleonast
    if(players[6] && players[5]) buses++;	// Suburban Plankton voted chipacabra
    if(players[13] && players[5]) buses++;	// Storyteller0910 voted chipacabra
    if(players[7] && players[5]) buses++;	// Mentalguy voted chipacabra
    if(players[9] && players[1]) buses++;	// Astral Rejection voted Wolverine
    if(players[16] && players[17]) buses++;	// Pleonast voted Idle Thoughts
    if(players[12] && players[7]) buses++;	// Red Skeezix voted Mentalguy
    if(players[2] && players[11]) buses++;	// ushimitsudoki voted ComeToDarkCookies
    if(players[4] && players[0]) buses++;	// special ed/Scuba voted 
    if(players[17] && players[2]) buses++;	// Idle Thoughts voted ushimitsudoki
    if(players[3] && players[2]) buses++;	// These are my pants voted ushimitsudoki
    if(players[11] && players[13]) buses++;	// ComeToDarkCookies voted Storyteller0910
    if(players[1] && players[2]) buses++;	// Wolverine voted ushimitsudoki
    if(players[8] && players[2]) buses++;	// Meeko voted ushimitsudoki
    if(players[18] && players[2]) buses++;	// Chronos voted ushimitsudoki
    if(players[9] && players[13]) buses++;	// Astral Rejection voted Storyteller0910
    if(players[6] && players[13]) buses++;	// Suburban Plankton voted Storyteller0910
    if(players[2] && players[13]) buses++;	// ushimitsudoki voted Storyteller0910
    if(players[13] && players[2]) buses++;	// Storyteller0910 voted ushimitsudoki
    if(players[12] && players[2]) buses++;	// Red Skeezix voted ushimitsudoki

/* Count number of attacks */

    if(!players[13] && players[14]) attacks++;	// Storyteller0910 voted Oredigger77
    if(!players[1] && players[14]) attacks++;	// Wolverine voted Oredigger77
    if(!players[9] && players[14]) attacks++;	// Astral Rejection voted Oredigger77
    if(!players[4] && players[14]) attacks++;	// special ed/Scuba voted Oredigger77
    if(!players[3] && players[14]) attacks++;	// These are my pants voted Oredigger77
    if(!players[16] && players[14]) attacks++;	// Pleonast voted Oredigger77
    if(!players[7] && players[14]) attacks++;	// Mentalguy voted Oredigger77
    if(!players[17] && players[2]) attacks++;	// Idle Thoughts voted ushimitsudoki
    if(!players[15] && players[2]) attacks++;	// peekercpa voted ushimitsudoki
    if(!players[11] && players[2]) attacks++;	// ComeToDarkCookies voted ushimitsudoki
    if(!players[10] && players[2]) attacks++;	// One and Only Wanderers voted ushimitsudoki
    if(!players[5] && players[2]) attacks++;	// chipacabra voted ushimitsudoki
    if(!players[14] && players[2]) attacks++;	// Oredigger77 voted ushimitsudoki
    if(!players[6] && players[17]) attacks++;	// Suburban Plankton voted Idle Thoughts
    if(!players[4] && players[17]) attacks++;	// special ed/Scuba voted Idle Thoughts
    if(!players[16] && players[17]) attacks++;	// Pleonast voted Idle Thoughts
    if(!players[18] && players[4]) attacks++;	// Chronos voted special ed/Scuba
    if(!players[2] && players[4]) attacks++;	// ushimitsudoki voted special ed/Scuba
    if(!players[3] && players[4]) attacks++;	// These are my pants voted special ed/Scuba
    if(!players[12] && players[18]) attacks++;	// Red Skeezix voted Chronos
    if(!players[11] && players[18]) attacks++;	// ComeToDarkCookies voted Chronos
    if(!players[8] && players[16]) attacks++;	// Meeko voted Pleonast
    if(!players[1] && players[16]) attacks++;	// Wolverine voted Pleonast
    if(!players[14] && players[16]) attacks++;	// Oredigger77 voted Pleonast
    if(!players[7] && players[11]) attacks++;	// Mentalguy voted ComeToDarkCookies
    if(!players[9] && players[11]) attacks++;	// Astral Rejection voted ComeToDarkCookies
    if(!players[2] && players[11]) attacks++;	// ushimitsudoki voted ComeToDarkCookies
    if(!players[8] && players[3]) attacks++;	// Meeko voted These are my pants
    if(!players[16] && players[15]) attacks++;	// Pleonast voted peekercpa
    if(!players[4] && players[15]) attacks++;	// special ed/Scuba voted peekercpa
    if(!players[16] && players[6]) attacks++;	// Pleonast voted Suburban Plankton
    if(!players[13] && players[6]) attacks++;	// Storyteller0910 voted Suburban Plankton
    if(!players[17] && players[6]) attacks++;	// Idle Thoughts voted Suburban Plankton
    if(!players[1] && players[13]) attacks++;	// Wolverine voted Storyteller0910
    if(!players[3] && players[16]) attacks++;	// These are my pants voted Pleonast
    if(!players[17] && players[16]) attacks++;	// Idle Thoughts voted Pleonast
    if(!players[10] && players[16]) attacks++;	// One and Only Wanderers voted Pleonast
    if(!players[8] && players[16]) attacks++;	// Meeko voted Pleonast
    if(!players[12] && players[16]) attacks++;	// Red Skeezix voted Pleonast
    if(!players[11] && players[16]) attacks++;	// ComeToDarkCookies voted Pleonast
    if(!players[18] && players[16]) attacks++;	// Chronos voted Pleonast
    if(!players[5] && players[16]) attacks++;	// chipacabra voted Pleonast
    if(!players[1] && players[16]) attacks++;	// Wolverine voted Pleonast
    if(!players[6] && players[5]) attacks++;	// Suburban Plankton voted chipacabra
    if(!players[11] && players[5]) attacks++;	// ComeToDarkCookies voted chipacabra
    if(!players[13] && players[5]) attacks++;	// Storyteller0910 voted chipacabra
    if(!players[7] && players[5]) attacks++;	// Mentalguy voted chipacabra
    if(!players[9] && players[1]) attacks++;	// Astral Rejection voted Wolverine
    if(!players[16] && players[17]) attacks++;	// Pleonast voted Idle Thoughts
    if(!players[12] && players[7]) attacks++;	// Red Skeezix voted Mentalguy
    if(!players[2] && players[11]) attacks++;	// ushimitsudoki voted ComeToDarkCookies
    if(!players[18] && players[2]) attacks++;	// Chronos voted ushimitsudoki
    if(!players[1] && players[2]) attacks++;	// Wolverine voted ushimitsudoki
    if(!players[5] && players[2]) attacks++;	// chipacabra voted ushimitsudoki
    if(!players[9] && players[4]) attacks++;	// Astral Rejection voted special ed/Scuba
    if(!players[4] && players[0]) attacks++;	// special ed/Scuba voted 
    if(!players[17] && players[2]) attacks++;	// Idle Thoughts voted ushimitsudoki
    if(!players[3] && players[2]) attacks++;	// These are my pants voted ushimitsudoki
    if(!players[8] && players[13]) attacks++;	// Meeko voted Storyteller0910
    if(!players[11] && players[13]) attacks++;	// ComeToDarkCookies voted Storyteller0910
    if(!players[1] && players[2]) attacks++;	// Wolverine voted ushimitsudoki
    if(!players[2] && players[11]) attacks++;	// ushimitsudoki voted ComeToDarkCookies
    if(!players[8] && players[2]) attacks++;	// Meeko voted ushimitsudoki
    if(!players[9] && players[1]) attacks++;	// Astral Rejection voted Wolverine
    if(!players[2] && players[1]) attacks++;	// ushimitsudoki voted Wolverine
    if(!players[18] && players[2]) attacks++;	// Chronos voted ushimitsudoki
    if(!players[6] && players[11]) attacks++;	// Suburban Plankton voted ComeToDarkCookies
    if(!players[12] && players[6]) attacks++;	// Red Skeezix voted Suburban Plankton
    if(!players[9] && players[13]) attacks++;	// Astral Rejection voted Storyteller0910
    if(!players[13] && players[9]) attacks++;	// Storyteller0910 voted Astral Rejection
    if(!players[3] && players[9]) attacks++;	// These are my pants voted Astral Rejection
    if(!players[6] && players[13]) attacks++;	// Suburban Plankton voted Storyteller0910
    if(!players[2] && players[13]) attacks++;	// ushimitsudoki voted Storyteller0910
    if(!players[13] && players[2]) attacks++;	// Storyteller0910 voted ushimitsudoki
    if(!players[12] && players[2]) attacks++;	// Red Skeezix voted ushimitsudoki
    if((min_scum<=n_scum) && (n_scum<=max_scum))	/* Throw out cases with wrong number of Scum */
    if((attacks*scum_votes) > (buses*town_votes + margin)) /* Throw out cases with Scum not voting Scummily */

/* Add other assumptions (delete or add any considered appropriate) */
    if(!players[0]) // Player 0 does not exist
    if(!players[12]) // Red Skeezix is a mason
    if(!players[14]) // Oredigger came up Town
    if(!players[15]) // peeker came up Town
    if(players[16]) // Pleo came up Scum
    if(!players[10]) // Wanderers came up Town
    if(!players[5]) // Chipacabra came up Town
    if(!players[7]) // Mentalguy came up Town
    if(!players[2]) // ushimitsudoki came up Town
    if(!players[3]) // Pants came up Town
    if(!players[13]) // Storyteller came up Town
    if(!players[11]) // Cookies wasn't Scum for first two Days
			{
      total_scenarios++;

/* Output all scenarios */
      for(i=0;i<n_players;i++) {
/* if(players* == 0) printf("%s ",names*); */
        if(players* == 1) { 
          printf("%s ",names*);
          score*++;
        }
      }
      printf("
");
    }
  }
  
/* Output scores */
  fprintf(stderr,"Total number of possibilities: %d
",total_scenarios);
  for(i=0;i<n_players;i++) fprintf(stderr,"%s	%d
",names*,score*);

  return(0);
}[/noparse]

```

[/spoiler]  
Results:Wolverine special ed/Scuba Suburban Plankton Pleonast  
Wolverine Suburban Plankton Meeko Pleonast  
special ed/Scuba Suburban Plankton Meeko Pleonast  
Wolverine special ed/Scuba Astral Rejection Pleonast  
Wolverine Suburban Plankton Astral Rejection Pleonast  
special ed/Scuba Suburban Plankton Astral Rejection Pleonast  
special ed/Scuba Meeko Astral Rejection Pleonast  
Suburban Plankton Meeko Astral Rejection Pleonast  
special ed/Scuba Astral Rejection Pleonast Idle Thoughts  
Suburban Plankton Astral Rejection Pleonast Idle Thoughts  
Wolverine Suburban Plankton Pleonast Chronos  
special ed/Scuba Suburban Plankton Pleonast Chronos  
Suburban Plankton Meeko Pleonast Chronos  
special ed/Scuba Astral Rejection Pleonast Chronos  
Suburban Plankton Astral Rejection Pleonast Chronos  
Meeko Astral Rejection Pleonast Chronos  
Astral Rejection Pleonast Idle Thoughts Chronos  
Total number of possibilities: 17  
0  
Wolverine 5  
ushimitsudoki 0  
These are my pants 0  
special ed/Scuba 8  
chipacabra 0  
Suburban Plankton 11  
Mentalguy 0  
Meeko 6  
Astral Rejection 11  
One and Only Wanderers 0  
ComeToDarkCookies 0  
Red Skeezix 0  
Storyteller0910 0  
Oredigger77 0  
peekercpa 0  
Pleonast 17  
Idle Thoughts 3  
Chronos 7

---

<div class="post-metadata">

**Author:** ![Astral\_Rejection](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/258eb7/32.png) [@Astral\_Rejection](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Astral_Rejection)\
**Post date:** [February 8, 2011, 8:07am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/hotel-of-heroes-mafia/567544/1109 "2011-02-08T08:07:39Z")

</div>

Then I have effectively proven your program is worthless. It assigns me the highest “scum” value (technically, tied with Suburban), and I know for a fact I’m town.

I would ask anyone considering a case on me to ignore Chronos’ program’s results. Including them in a case would make me a sad panda.

Today was a busy day for me. Tomorrow, I’m leaping back into this game.

---

<div class="post-metadata">

**Author:** ![Red\_Skeezix](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/aca169/32.png) [@Red\_Skeezix](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Red_Skeezix)\
**Post date:** [February 8, 2011, 10:27pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/hotel-of-heroes-mafia/567544/1110 "2011-02-08T22:27:31Z")

</div>

I wanted to let you guys kinda hash it out today, but my time is limited this week. For my money, the Cookies vote looks like the best hedge to hide behind, ie it guarantees that if we are at lylo that we lynch scum, otherwise we face lylo tomorrow instead of today. And tomorrow there will be a 50/50 split (considering that the doctor should claim if i’m dead).

**vote COokies**

---

<div class="post-metadata">

**Author:** ![Red\_Skeezix](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/aca169/32.png) [@Red\_Skeezix](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Red_Skeezix)\
**Post date:** [February 8, 2011, 10:30pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/hotel-of-heroes-mafia/567544/1111 "2011-02-08T22:30:35Z")

</div>

Also, Chronos, you’re input is flawed, i don’t know if it’s on purpose or not, but you should have min scum =4 max scum =5.  
Unless you know something we don’t.

---

<div class="post-metadata">

**Author:** ![Red\_Skeezix](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/aca169/32.png) [@Red\_Skeezix](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Red_Skeezix)\
**Post date:** [February 8, 2011, 10:33pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/hotel-of-heroes-mafia/567544/1112 "2011-02-08T22:33:17Z")

</div>

Also, why have you assumed that cookies is town?

---

<div class="post-metadata">

**Author:** ![ComeToTheDarkSideWeHaveCookies](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/c/e9bcb4/32.png) [@ComeToTheDarkSideWeHaveCookies](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/ComeToTheDarkSideWeHaveCookies)\
**Post date:** [February 8, 2011, 10:53pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/hotel-of-heroes-mafia/567544/1113 "2011-02-08T22:53:16Z")

</div>

Would those of you voting for me also weigh in on your thoughts on a mass claim? I will be a mislynch and I think it may be best to have that information out for absorption and analysis prior to lylo.

---

<div class="post-metadata">

**Author:** ![Suburban\_Plankton](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/suburban_plankton/32/219_2.png) [@Suburban\_Plankton](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Suburban_Plankton)\
**Post date:** [February 8, 2011, 10:56pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/hotel-of-heroes-mafia/567544/1114 "2011-02-08T22:56:41Z")

</div>

I was hoping we’d be more talkative Today…but I’m as guilty as everyone else in that regard. It’s been one of those weeks so far.

I’m having to resist a temptation to vote for \*\*Chronos \*\*based on his posting hi program results showing me as ‘Most Likely to be Scum’, and then saying that he doesn’t plan on voting based on those results, but he’s posting them anyway.

Actually, as I write this, I’ve decided to stop resisting.

**vote Chronos**

If you don’t trust the results of your program enough to stand behind them yourself, then why bother telling the rest of us what they are in the first place, unless you want to plant a seed…

I was going to put a vote on **Cookies** , basically as a holdover from my vote Yesterday (I guess that was technically the Day before Yesterday, wasn’t it?). But that was based on ‘not having anything better to go on’, and I’ve just changed my mind.

---

<div class="post-metadata">

**Author:** ![Chronos](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/chronos/32/134_2.png) [@Chronos](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Chronos)\
**Post date:** [February 8, 2011, 10:57pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/hotel-of-heroes-mafia/567544/1115 "2011-02-08T22:57:23Z")

</div>

To clarify my reasoning on **Cookies** : To deal with her completely correctly, I would have to allow for the possibility of changing alignment in my code, which is not something that it’s really set up to do, and I don’t intend to put in the amount of work that would be needed to change it. But for at least the majority of the data set, she was not on the Scum team, and could be expected to behave like a Townie as far as the voting data is concerned. Scum will behave differently than Townies because they have different information than Townies, but **Cookies** had no more information than a Townie on Days 1 and 2. This does not mean that I actually think she must _currently_ be a Townie (I don’t know what she is), and I would say that my program says exactly nothing about her current alignment. But I think that my program _can_ give at least some information about other players, and I think that information about other players is better served by treating **Cookies** as Town in the analysis.

As an aside, I really shouldn’t have been surprised that my program gives so few possible scenarios: Even without looking at any voting data, there are only 7 choose 3 (=35) possible configurations left (aside from the question about **Cookies** , which as I said I’m not really addressing). So the voting data is ruling out about half of the possibilities. I was expecting more because we’ve only had three full Days so far, but we’ve also had a lot of extra deaths.

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<div class="post-metadata">

**Author:** ![Suburban\_Plankton](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/suburban_plankton/32/219_2.png) [@Suburban\_Plankton](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Suburban_Plankton)\
**Post date:** [February 8, 2011, 10:59pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/hotel-of-heroes-mafia/567544/1116 "2011-02-08T22:59:57Z")

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> [@ComeToTheDarkSideWeHaveCookies](#):
>
> Would those of you voting for me also weigh in on your thoughts on a mass claim? I will be a mislynch and I think it may be best to have that information out for absorption and analysis prior to lylo.

I’m not voting for you at the moment, but I wouldn’t have an objection to a mass claim at this point. I agree that \*\*Skeezix \*\*should fix the order, if we’re going to go that route.

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**Author:** ![Chronos](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/chronos/32/134_2.png) [@Chronos](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Chronos)\
**Post date:** [February 8, 2011, 11:02pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/hotel-of-heroes-mafia/567544/1117 "2011-02-08T23:02:58Z")

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Quoth **Suburban** :

> [@](#):
>
> I’m having to resist a temptation to vote for Chronos based on his posting hi program results showing me as ‘Most Likely to be Scum’, and then saying that he doesn’t plan on voting based on those results, but he’s posting them anyway.
> 
> Actually, as I write this, I’ve decided to stop resisting.
> 
> vote Chronos
> 
> If you don’t trust the results of your program enough to stand behind them yourself, then why bother telling the rest of us what they are in the first place, unless you want to plant a seed…

I said that I don’t plan to use them as the basis for a vote, not that I don’t plan on using them at all. It isn’t strong enough for a vote, but it _is_ strong enough for me to decide where to look closer. I haven’t had time yet for WoWs on you and **Astral** ; once I do, I might (or might not) decide based on that whether I should vote for either of you. Of course, the ideal player wouldn’t need guidance on whom to look closely at, since e would just look closely at _everyone_, but I’m sure you appreciate that that’s impossible.

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**Author:** ![Chronos](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/chronos/32/134_2.png) [@Chronos](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Chronos)\
**Post date:** [February 8, 2011, 11:10pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/hotel-of-heroes-mafia/567544/1118 "2011-02-08T23:10:10Z")

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Oh, and as for a mass claim, if we are in fact (as seems incredibly likely) replaying Harry Potter, then there’s currently exactly one Town power role still in hiding, the Doctor/Vote Charger, there are no bonus kills remaining, and the Scum team still has a roleblocker. It looks to me like the only benefit of mass-claiming would be that the Doctor would be effectively confirmed, but the advantage to being confirmed is just that that player won’t be lynched, and he can see that coming. Wouldn’t we get just as much benefit from staying unclaimed until and unless he’s under lynch pressure, and claim then? As soon as the Scum know who the Doctor is, they can just block-kill him, so we shouldn’t let that information out any earlier than we need to.

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**Author:** ![Mahaloth](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/mahaloth/32/1079_2.png) [@Mahaloth](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Mahaloth)\
**Post date:** [February 8, 2011, 11:45pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/hotel-of-heroes-mafia/567544/1119 "2011-02-08T23:45:27Z")

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\*\*Vote Count

Cookies(2): Idle, Redskeezix

Suburban(1): Meeko

Chronos(1): Suburban

I’m giving you folks 'til Thursday at 3 Eastern to decide.  
\*\*

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<div class="post-metadata">

**Author:** ![Suburban\_Plankton](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/suburban_plankton/32/219_2.png) [@Suburban\_Plankton](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Suburban_Plankton)\
**Post date:** [February 9, 2011, 12:19am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/hotel-of-heroes-mafia/567544/1120 "2011-02-09T00:19:46Z")

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> [@Chronos](#):
>
> Oh, and as for a mass claim, if we are in fact (as seems incredibly likely) replaying Harry Potter, then there’s currently exactly one Town power role still in hiding, the Doctor/Vote Charger, there are no bonus kills remaining, and the Scum team still has a roleblocker. It looks to me like the only benefit of mass-claiming would be that the Doctor would be effectively confirmed, but the advantage to being confirmed is just that that player won’t be lynched, and he can see that coming. Wouldn’t we get just as much benefit from staying unclaimed until and unless he’s under lynch pressure, and claim then? As soon as the Scum know who the Doctor is, they can just block-kill him, so we shouldn’t let that information out any earlier than we need to.

Are we so certain that the current setup is an exact mirror of Harry Potter? So far we’ve seen two Town Powers plus two Masons, and we’ve only uncovered a single Scum…and we’ve had \*\*story’s \*\*extra vote. Given the make-up that we have uncovered already, is there only one plausible blueprint that fits?

This seems to be more of a game architecture question, based on game balance and the like, and that’s not my strong suit, which is why i’m asking. It seems dangerous to assume we know what’s left out there and discount the possibility that the remaining players might be different from what is expected.

I’m not saying “ **Chonos** , you’re _wrong_” here, but I am asking “ **Chronos** , how confident are you that you are definitely _right_?”

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