# Hotel of Heroes mafia **URL:** \ **Category:** The Game Room\ **Created:** [January 14, 2011, 1:30am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/hotel-of-heroes-mafia/567544 "2011-01-14T01:30:48Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 62
**Author:** ![Scuba\_Ben](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/278dde/32.png) [@Scuba\_Ben](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Scuba_Ben)\ **Post date:** [February 10, 2011, 9:18pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/hotel-of-heroes-mafia/567544/1221 "2011-02-10T21:18:50Z")
I find your lack of faith {in my side} disturbing. As you strike me down, I shall become more powerful than you can possibly imagine! Gaaaaaaa… Or maybe not. Go Bad Guys! ---
**Author:** ![Meeko](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/e495f1/32.png) [@Meeko](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Meeko)\ **Post date:** [February 10, 2011, 9:24pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/hotel-of-heroes-mafia/567544/1222 "2011-02-10T21:24:13Z")
Wow. I realized time for today was up while I was still out. This works too, I guess. – For obvious reasons, I will be outside enjoying the fresh air for tonight, until such time. If you want to join me, please bring your own Vodka. [Yes, that’s all In game.] ---
**Author:** ![Meeko](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/e495f1/32.png) [@Meeko](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Meeko)\ **Post date:** [February 10, 2011, 9:28pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/hotel-of-heroes-mafia/567544/1223 "2011-02-10T21:28:55Z")
> [@Mahaloth](#): > > \*\*ScubaBen was Darth Vader from Star Wars. He was a member of the NDCE. He could use the Force to stop others from taking actions; he was a scum role-blocker. \*\* > [@Chronos](#): > > Huh, maybe there’s still hope. Or, **A NEW HOPE** , At least. ---
**Author:** ![Suburban\_Plankton](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/suburban_plankton/32/219_2.png) [@Suburban\_Plankton](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Suburban_Plankton)\ **Post date:** [February 10, 2011, 9:29pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/hotel-of-heroes-mafia/567544/1224 "2011-02-10T21:29:17Z")
Huzzah! > [@Meeko](#): > > Wow. > > I realized time for today was up while I was still out. > > This works too, I guess. > > – > > For obvious reasons, I will be outside enjoying the fresh air for tonight, until such time. > > If you want to join me, please bring your own Vodka. > > [Yes, that’s all In game.] Can I bring a bottle of Scotch instead? ---
**Author:** ![Meeko](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/e495f1/32.png) [@Meeko](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Meeko)\ **Post date:** [February 10, 2011, 9:35pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/hotel-of-heroes-mafia/567544/1225 "2011-02-10T21:35:07Z")
> [@Suburban\_Plankton](#): > > Huzzah! > > Can I bring a bottle of Scotch instead? That’s probably good too, that way I won’t end up drinking yours. [Oh c’mon, you’ve been there, don’t judge.] ---
**Author:** ![Idle\_Thoughts](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/i/838e76/32.png) [@Idle\_Thoughts](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Idle_Thoughts)\ **Post date:** [February 10, 2011, 9:40pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/hotel-of-heroes-mafia/567544/1226 "2011-02-10T21:40:56Z")
Nice. ---
**Author:** ![Mahaloth](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/mahaloth/32/1079_2.png) [@Mahaloth](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Mahaloth)\ **Post date:** [February 11, 2011, 1:56pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/hotel-of-heroes-mafia/567544/1227 "2011-02-11T13:56:12Z")
“Wake up! Let’s do this thing, folks.” The heroes awoke, rather early actually, and watched their TV. It turned on and showed this scene: [How touching.](http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wMQepQVKwJ4&playnext=1&list=PL8B993AA425EFA714#t=12m) “Meeko is canceled. I mean dead, actually. Honestly, are you even surprised at this point? I think not. Come on down, chow on some food, and kill another one of you.” The heroes just sat there. “I know, I know, he didn’t die in the video, but I like that video and it captures the moment better than some shot of him….well, being shot or something.” \*\* Meeko is dead. He was Malcolm Reynolds from Firefly. He was a member of the Excellent Indivisible Unity of Good Characters. He could choose to either protect at Night, or persuade(vote charge) in the Day. Only one per Day/Night cycle, though.\*\* It’s Day 6. This day ends on Monday at 3:00 PM. ---
**Author:** ![Meeko](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/e495f1/32.png) [@Meeko](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Meeko)\ **Post date:** [February 11, 2011, 1:59pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/hotel-of-heroes-mafia/567544/1228 "2011-02-11T13:59:28Z")
Gee. It’s almost like I knew that was coming. Or something. I did what I could gang. And again, frankly, I do think this was the best game I’ve ever played. It’s a tall order I feel, but remember, we are better off than we were yesterday [We got Scuba.] And Looks like game’s not over. \*\* Go Town!\*\* ---
**Author:** ![Chronos](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/chronos/32/134_2.png) [@Chronos](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Chronos)\ **Post date:** [February 11, 2011, 5:11pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/hotel-of-heroes-mafia/567544/1229 "2011-02-11T17:11:55Z")
> [@](#): > > I did what I could gang. And again, frankly, I do think this was the best game I’ve ever played. Certainly, our days of not taking you seriously have come to a middle. And there’s certainly no arguing with the outcome, but I still think that the case against **Scuba** was flawed. ---
**Author:** ![Suburban\_Plankton](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/suburban_plankton/32/219_2.png) [@Suburban\_Plankton](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Suburban_Plankton)\ **Post date:** [February 11, 2011, 5:55pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/hotel-of-heroes-mafia/567544/1230 "2011-02-11T17:55:30Z")
> [@Chronos](#): > > Oh, and as for a mass claim, if we are in fact (as seems incredibly likely) replaying Harry Potter, then there’s currently exactly one Town power role still in hiding, the Doctor/Vote Charger, there are no bonus kills remaining, and the Scum team still has a roleblocker. It looks to me like the only benefit of mass-claiming would be that the Doctor would be effectively confirmed, but the advantage to being confirmed is just that that player won’t be lynched, and he can see that coming. Wouldn’t we get just as much benefit from staying unclaimed until and unless he’s under lynch pressure, and claim then? As soon as the Scum know who the Doctor is, they can just block-kill him, so we shouldn’t let that information out any earlier than we need to. Since \*\*Chronos \*\*posted this, we’ve uncovered a Town Doctor/Vote Charger and a Scum Role Blocker. So at this point I really have no choice but to share his confidence that the setup of this game is the same as Harry Potter… So assuming that is the case: [ul] [li]We’re down to what is essentially an all-Vanilla contest. (I’m assuming this based upon the above quote from Chronos…is this correct?)[/li][li]We have two ‘original Scum’ remaining, plus Cookies still uncertain status.[/li][/ul] Counting **Red Skeezix** as Confirmed Town, that means that among **Wolverine** , **Astral Rejection** , **Idle Thoughts** , **Chronos** , and **myself** , we have two ‘baddies’. And of course,\* I\* know I’m not one of them… And then there’s Cookies, who is the wild-card. I think it’s pretty safe to assume the Scum are not going to kill her in any case… ---
**Author:** ![Suburban\_Plankton](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/suburban_plankton/32/219_2.png) [@Suburban\_Plankton](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Suburban_Plankton)\ **Post date:** [February 11, 2011, 5:56pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/hotel-of-heroes-mafia/567544/1231 "2011-02-11T17:56:47Z")
[QUOTE=Chronos;13456373And there’s certainly no arguing with the outcome, but I still think that the case against **Scuba** was flawed.[/QUOTE] Why, exactly? I don’t think it was open-and-shut case, but what was fundamentally flawed about it? ---
**Author:** ![ComeToTheDarkSideWeHaveCookies](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/c/e9bcb4/32.png) [@ComeToTheDarkSideWeHaveCookies](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/ComeToTheDarkSideWeHaveCookies)\ **Post date:** [February 11, 2011, 6:41pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/hotel-of-heroes-mafia/567544/1232 "2011-02-11T18:41:24Z")
**Vote Idle** For all of the reasons I posted yesterday, plus the only person he’s flitted into the thread to interact with since he started picking up votes was an exchange with scummy Scuba\_Ben, and reading that exchange it really seems like they are mutually trying to diffuse the cases against each other. ---
**Author:** ![Idle\_Thoughts](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/i/838e76/32.png) [@Idle\_Thoughts](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Idle_Thoughts)\ **Post date:** [February 11, 2011, 7:41pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/hotel-of-heroes-mafia/567544/1233 "2011-02-11T19:41:49Z")
**Vote Cookies** …for all the reasons I posted yesterDay. ---
**Author:** ![Chronos](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/chronos/32/134_2.png) [@Chronos](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Chronos)\ **Post date:** [February 11, 2011, 8:29pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/hotel-of-heroes-mafia/567544/1234 "2011-02-11T20:29:05Z")
Quoth **Suburban Plankton** : > [@](#): > > So assuming that is the case: > > ``` > * We're down to what is essentially an all-Vanilla contest. (I'm assuming this based upon the above quote from Chronos...is this correct?) > > ``` With two wrinkles: One, a confirmed Town isn’t exactly vanilla. Two, **Cookies** isn’t exactly vanilla, either, since there still exists a means to learn her alignment. To expand on this: There are currently two players in the game who started off as (and still are) Scum, four players who started off as (and still are) Town, and one player who started off as neither, but is now one or the other. If we’re to win, we definitely must kill the two original Scum. If we kill them and the game is still going, then we know that **Cookies** is Scum, too, and it’s a no-brainer to kill her. So if we kill the two original Scum, one way or another, we’re guaranteed the win. Killing the two original Scum is a necessary and sufficient condition to winning the game. On the other hand, suppose we set out to kill the two original Scum, but mislynch. There are two things that can happen then: If **Cookies** joined them, then we lose, having struck out swinging. But if **Cookies** didn’t join them, then the game continues, and we know by virtue of the game continuing that she didn’t, and so she becomes confirmed. > [@](#): > > Why, exactly? I don’t think it was open-and-shut case, but what was fundamentally flawed about it? It seemed to me that what ultimately got him lynched was **Red Skeezix** ’s belief that his PM was forged, based on his canon being so vague (“from fairy tales”). But I know from my own PM that some legitimate PMs _are_ vague, since mine is too. Besides which, he probably didn’t have any need to forge a PM, since **Mahaloth** probably gave the Scum three aliases, and **Pleonast** didn’t use one. ---
**Author:** ![Suburban\_Plankton](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/suburban_plankton/32/219_2.png) [@Suburban\_Plankton](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Suburban_Plankton)\ **Post date:** [February 11, 2011, 9:06pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/hotel-of-heroes-mafia/567544/1235 "2011-02-11T21:06:27Z")
> [@Chronos](#): > > Quoth **Suburban Plankton** :With two wrinkles: One, a confirmed Town isn’t exactly vanilla. Two, **Cookies** isn’t exactly vanilla, either, since there still exists a means to learn her alignment. I probably should have been clearer; when I said ‘all-Vanilla’ I meant that there were no players remaining with any powers that can be used to affect gameplay. > [@](#): > > To expand on this: There are currently two players in the game who started off as (and still are) Scum, four players who started off as (and still are) Town, and one player who started off as neither, but is now one or the other. If we’re to win, we definitely must kill the two original Scum. If we kill them and the game is still going, then we know that **Cookies** is Scum, too, and it’s a no-brainer to kill her. So if we kill the two original Scum, one way or another, we’re guaranteed the win. Killing the two original Scum is a necessary and sufficient condition to winning the game. > > On the other hand, suppose we set out to kill the two original Scum, but mislynch. There are two things that can happen then: If **Cookies** joined them, then we lose, having struck out swinging. But if **Cookies** didn’t join them, then the game continues, and we know by virtue of the game continuing that she didn’t, and so she becomes confirmed. Having just done the math, this is what I’ve come up with. It may or may not be correct; further analysis is welcome. Right now the Town/Scum breakdown is either 5/2 or 4/3, depending on **Cookies**. If we lynch her Today, then after the Scum kill Tonight, we start Day 7 at 3/2, regardless of **Cookies** ’ alignment. If we don’t lynch \*\*Cookies \*\*Today, then come Tomorrow morning we could be anywhere from up 4/1 (if we lynch Scum today and \*\*Cookies \*\*is Town) to Game Over (if we lynch Town Today and \*\*Cookies \*\*is Scum). The other two combinations both end with Town up 3/2 Tomorrow. So if we flip a coin Today, we have a 4/6 chance that it comes down to Day 7 at 3/2, a 1/6 chance that we take a 4/1 lead, and a 1/6 chance that Scum wins Tonight. The ‘safe’ bet is therefore to lynch \*\*Cookies \*\*Today, because then we know exactly where we stand. But if we do that, then Tomorrow is definitely LyLo. ---
**Author:** ![Suburban\_Plankton](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/suburban_plankton/32/219_2.png) [@Suburban\_Plankton](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Suburban_Plankton)\ **Post date:** [February 11, 2011, 9:10pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/hotel-of-heroes-mafia/567544/1236 "2011-02-11T21:10:06Z")
NETA: I didn’t factor in the fact that \*\*Skeezix \*\*is essentially confirmed Town, but I don’t think it really makes a difference. ---
**Author:** ![ComeToTheDarkSideWeHaveCookies](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/c/e9bcb4/32.png) [@ComeToTheDarkSideWeHaveCookies](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/ComeToTheDarkSideWeHaveCookies)\ **Post date:** [February 11, 2011, 9:13pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/hotel-of-heroes-mafia/567544/1237 "2011-02-11T21:13:17Z")
Or you could toss the math out the window, hunt for the scum that you know are still out there, and probably come up with another name in red come Dawn. ---
**Author:** ![ComeToTheDarkSideWeHaveCookies](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/c/e9bcb4/32.png) [@ComeToTheDarkSideWeHaveCookies](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/ComeToTheDarkSideWeHaveCookies)\ **Post date:** [February 11, 2011, 9:15pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/hotel-of-heroes-mafia/567544/1238 "2011-02-11T21:15:58Z")
Seriously…are y’all even looking for scum as much as justifying that you have a legitimate reason to kill me? Legitimacy is not always the path to victory. Like now. 🙂 ---
**Author:** ![Suburban\_Plankton](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/suburban_plankton/32/219_2.png) [@Suburban\_Plankton](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Suburban_Plankton)\ **Post date:** [February 11, 2011, 9:24pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/hotel-of-heroes-mafia/567544/1239 "2011-02-11T21:24:21Z")
> [@ComeToTheDarkSideWeHaveCookies](#): > > Or you could toss the math out the window, hunt for the scum that you know are still out there, and probably come up with another name in red come Dawn. I haven’t tossed the math out the window, but I am still hunting the Scum…otherwise I would have voted for you. As I said, I believe the ‘safe’ vote Today is on you. But all that really does is guarantee us one more Day, because we will still need to lynch Scum the next two Days or we lose. ---
**Author:** ![Chronos](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/chronos/32/134_2.png) [@Chronos](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Chronos)\ **Post date:** [February 11, 2011, 9:27pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/hotel-of-heroes-mafia/567544/1240 "2011-02-11T21:27:23Z")
The way I see it, though, if we don’t have any clear idea on who the original Scum are now, then we probably won’t have much better idea come toMorrow, in which case we’re screwed. But if we do have a clear idea of who the original Scum are, then we should lynch them, instead of **Cookies**. And the existence of **Red Skeezix** is relevant for toDay, since it makes our pool of lynchees smaller by 1, but he’s almost certain to be Night-killed toNight, so he will cease to be relevant then. [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/hotel-of-heroes-mafia/567544.md?page=61) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/hotel-of-heroes-mafia/567544.md?page=63)