# Hotel of Heroes mafia **URL:** \ **Category:** The Game Room\ **Created:** [January 14, 2011, 1:30am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/hotel-of-heroes-mafia/567544 "2011-01-14T01:30:48Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 65
**Author:** ![Idle\_Thoughts](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/i/838e76/32.png) [@Idle\_Thoughts](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Idle_Thoughts)\ **Post date:** [February 14, 2011, 7:58pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/hotel-of-heroes-mafia/567544/1281 "2011-02-14T19:58:27Z")
My prediction: Tomorrow, scum will try for either\*\* Cookies\*\* (whom I believe is possible Town now) or **Wolverine**. The person you all should be looking at the most, however, is **Sub Plank** (in my opinion). I’m ready for my hanging! ---
**Author:** ![ComeToTheDarkSideWeHaveCookies](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/c/e9bcb4/32.png) [@ComeToTheDarkSideWeHaveCookies](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/ComeToTheDarkSideWeHaveCookies)\ **Post date:** [February 14, 2011, 8:56pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/hotel-of-heroes-mafia/567544/1282 "2011-02-14T20:56:28Z")
I’ve had one post on this page, and it was basically a rehash of previously posted information. Yet in the span of posts #1269 to #1281, Idle has apparently moved me up from someone who it is stupid for the Town to trust (which isn’t really what they’re doing, they’re just looking for the scum and leaving me for later) and that hopefully I’ll die soon, to now being believably possibly Town. ---
**Author:** ![Idle\_Thoughts](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/i/838e76/32.png) [@Idle\_Thoughts](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Idle_Thoughts)\ **Post date:** [February 14, 2011, 8:59pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/hotel-of-heroes-mafia/567544/1283 "2011-02-14T20:59:45Z")
I’m not saying you should be trusted now, I’m just saying I find other people to be more scummy than you are now. And since there’s only (by my guess) one or two scum left–well, not everyone can be scum. : p Like I said, Sub P, A.R. and you would be my votes if I lived. ---
**Author:** ![Suburban\_Plankton](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/suburban_plankton/32/219_2.png) [@Suburban\_Plankton](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Suburban_Plankton)\ **Post date:** [February 14, 2011, 9:08pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/hotel-of-heroes-mafia/567544/1284 "2011-02-14T21:08:15Z")
I’m playing in three games right now, with clocks being kept in 3 different time zones, so I may be confused over when Night was supposed to fall, but shouldn’t it have been a little over an hour ago? ---
**Author:** ![Mahaloth](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/mahaloth/32/1079_2.png) [@Mahaloth](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Mahaloth)\ **Post date:** [February 14, 2011, 9:09pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/hotel-of-heroes-mafia/567544/1285 "2011-02-14T21:09:04Z")
Quiet, folks. I’ll have the color up in a sec. ---
**Author:** ![Mahaloth](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/mahaloth/32/1079_2.png) [@Mahaloth](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Mahaloth)\ **Post date:** [February 14, 2011, 9:16pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/hotel-of-heroes-mafia/567544/1286 "2011-02-14T21:16:11Z")
[“You have chosen……poorly.”](http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Ubw5N8iVDHI#t=4s) Idle collapsed, still smiling, though he seemed rather miffed leading up to his death. [A video came on the TV as it had before.](http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sCTWTfkXkmk&feature=related) “I actually kind of liked that. You guys are finally killing people that don’t suck. Joel rocked! Mike sucked!” I like both about equally, honestly, but etiher way Idle is dead. \*\* Idle is dead. He was Joel Robinson from MST3K. He was a member of the EIUGC and had no special powers. He was vanilla Town.\*\* It’s Night 6. This Night will run EXTREMELY shortly. As soon as all Night Actions are in, I’m starting the next Day(if there is to be one). 🙂 ---
**Author:** ![Chronos](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/chronos/32/134_2.png) [@Chronos](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Chronos)\ **Post date:** [February 14, 2011, 9:39pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/hotel-of-heroes-mafia/567544/1287 "2011-02-14T21:39:59Z")
Well, the good news is, the game’s not over yet. ---
**Author:** ![ComeToTheDarkSideWeHaveCookies](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/c/e9bcb4/32.png) [@ComeToTheDarkSideWeHaveCookies](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/ComeToTheDarkSideWeHaveCookies)\ **Post date:** [February 14, 2011, 9:50pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/hotel-of-heroes-mafia/567544/1288 "2011-02-14T21:50:12Z")
That well and truly sucks. ---
**Author:** ![Suburban\_Plankton](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/suburban_plankton/32/219_2.png) [@Suburban\_Plankton](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Suburban_Plankton)\ **Post date:** [February 14, 2011, 9:51pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/hotel-of-heroes-mafia/567544/1289 "2011-02-14T21:51:20Z")
Well, shit! ---
**Author:** ![Mahaloth](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/mahaloth/32/1079_2.png) [@Mahaloth](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Mahaloth)\ **Post date:** [February 14, 2011, 11:38pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/hotel-of-heroes-mafia/567544/1290 "2011-02-14T23:38:20Z")
“Sleeping soundly? Good. Now, wake up!” Already? Yeesh. We barely got a chance to sleep or relax. Well, that’s how it goes. Gee, I wonder who we still have around here? The TV’s clicked on yet again. [Wow, he burns up quick, doesn’t he?](http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Gz8SvuAgiP0#t=4m10s) “Yep, it’s another sunny Day in the Hotel of Heroes. Wake up, get busy, and kill, kill, kill!” **RedSkeezix is dead. He was Angel from Angel. He was a member of the EIUGC. He was in a “lover” relationship and they could communicate privately at all times.** It is now Day 7. “Only a few left? Wow, this is getting……interesting. Very, very interesting. I have a new twist for you folks. Mahaloth, please tell them.” Well, it’s down to you few, you very few. This Day will work like this. It will be 48 hours long maximum, which takes us to, let’s say, \*\*6:45 PM Eastern on Wednesday, February 16. \*\* However, I will allow “final votes”. A final vote is: - A vote to kill someone - A vote to end the Day - Not unvotable. It’s permanent, so don’t do it if you don’t mean it. To final vote, say: **Final Vote Mahaloth** To regular vote, just say: **Vote Mahaloth** If a player gets three final votes or if every player final votes(even if you all vote for someone different), we’ll end the Day. **No pressure to end the Day early, folks.** If you want the 48 hours, take it. I simply want to move the game along if you all want to. We have only a few left anyway. **Seriously, take your time. The game is still on!** ---
**Author:** ![Mahaloth](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/mahaloth/32/1079_2.png) [@Mahaloth](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Mahaloth)\ **Post date:** [February 14, 2011, 11:49pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/hotel-of-heroes-mafia/567544/1291 "2011-02-14T23:49:58Z")
Let me know if I have this wrong, but I believe we have: Alive 1. Wolverine 2. Suburbanplankton 3. Astralrejection 4. Cometothedarksidewehavecookies 5. Chronos Dead: **Oredigger- Fox Mulder – EIUGC(Vanilla) Peeker - Castiel - EIUGC(Vanilla)** **Pleonast – Satan – NDCE (Investigator)** **OneandOnly – Gandalf - EIUGC(Vanilla) Chipacabra – Buffy – EIUGC(Lover mason) Mentalguy – Xev Belringer – EIUGC(Vanilla) Ushimi – Batman – EIUGC(Vanilla) Thesearemypants – Veronica Mars - EIUGC(Investigator/Pure One) Storyteller – Dumbledore - EIUGC(One shot powers)** **ScubaBen – Darth Vader – NDCE(Role-blocker)** \*\*Meeko – Malcolm Reynolds - EIUGC (vote charger/protector) Idle – Joel Robinson – EIUGC(vanilla Town) RedSkeezix – Angel – EIUGC(Lover mason) \*\* ---
**Author:** ![Chronos](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/chronos/32/134_2.png) [@Chronos](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Chronos)\ **Post date:** [February 14, 2011, 11:57pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/hotel-of-heroes-mafia/567544/1292 "2011-02-14T23:57:38Z")
OK, first of all, we’re presumed to have two original Scum left, out of a total of five players, and the game isn’t over, which means that **Cookies** definitely chose Town. So she’s now effectively confirmed. Second, I don’t think we should use the Final Vote mechanism. The Day is going to be short enough as it is, so there’s no real need to shorten it further, and it has potential to backfire on us big time. If even one Townie casts a final vote on another Townie, the Scum will be able to swoop in and hijack the voting, and there won’t be a thing we can do about it. In fact, even if Townies cast final votes on two different Scum, the Scum might still be able to hijack that, depending on the tiebreaker. ---
**Author:** ![Suburban\_Plankton](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/suburban_plankton/32/219_2.png) [@Suburban\_Plankton](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Suburban_Plankton)\ **Post date:** [February 14, 2011, 11:58pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/hotel-of-heroes-mafia/567544/1293 "2011-02-14T23:58:30Z")
So…no big surprise there…sorry Red… If we’re correct in our thinking that we know the makeup of the game, then Cookies is now confirmed Town, and we have 2 Scum to find among the rest of us. If we’re not correct in our assumption, then all bets are off. I’ve been suspicious of \*\*Chronos \*\*in the past, so my money has to start on him, and I’m really starting to suspect \*\*Wolverine \*\*based on some of his posts the last couple of Days. I’m about to head home from work now, so I’m going to leave you with just this drive-by for the moment, and I’ll be back to follow up with some actual content a bit later. ---
**Author:** ![Suburban\_Plankton](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/suburban_plankton/32/219_2.png) [@Suburban\_Plankton](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Suburban_Plankton)\ **Post date:** [February 15, 2011, 12:00am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/hotel-of-heroes-mafia/567544/1294 "2011-02-15T00:00:09Z")
One more comment…I agree with \*\*Chronos \*\*on the ‘final vote’ mechanism… ---
**Author:** ![Astral\_Rejection](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/258eb7/32.png) [@Astral\_Rejection](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Astral_Rejection)\ **Post date:** [February 15, 2011, 12:00am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/hotel-of-heroes-mafia/567544/1295 "2011-02-15T00:00:09Z")
> [@Chronos](#): > > OK, first of all, we’re presumed to have two original Scum left, out of a total of five players, and the game isn’t over, which means that **Cookies** definitely chose Town. So she’s now effectively confirmed. > > Second, I don’t think we should use the Final Vote mechanism. The Day is going to be short enough as it is, so there’s no real need to shorten it further, and it has potential to backfire on us big time. If even one Townie casts a final vote on another Townie, the Scum will be able to swoop in and hijack the voting, and there won’t be a thing we can do about it. In fact, even if Townies cast final votes on two different Scum, the Scum might still be able to hijack that, depending on the tiebreaker. Agreed. I think final votes are bad news all around. At this point, I think we should all lay out our suspicions on every remaining player. I’ll do the same when I get home from work. ---
**Author:** ![ComeToTheDarkSideWeHaveCookies](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/c/e9bcb4/32.png) [@ComeToTheDarkSideWeHaveCookies](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/ComeToTheDarkSideWeHaveCookies)\ **Post date:** [February 15, 2011, 12:48am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/hotel-of-heroes-mafia/567544/1296 "2011-02-15T00:48:45Z")
I was so sure that Idle was scum. That totally sucks. I’m glad I can finally be as confirmed as possible after this roller-coaster of a game. I’m going to be looking at Suburban first. He had ping’d me and I’d voted for him early in the game. Wolverine will probably be next on my review list. ---
**Author:** ![Red\_Skeezix](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/aca169/32.png) [@Red\_Skeezix](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Red_Skeezix)\ **Post date:** [February 15, 2011, 12:56am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/hotel-of-heroes-mafia/567544/1297 "2011-02-15T00:56:08Z")
No real suprises. Spoil me, please!! ---
**Author:** ![Mahaloth](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/mahaloth/32/1079_2.png) [@Mahaloth](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Mahaloth)\ **Post date:** [February 15, 2011, 1:02am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/hotel-of-heroes-mafia/567544/1298 "2011-02-15T01:02:53Z")
The loudspeaker craclked: “Mahaloth, you twit. Final votes are lame, you lamer.” Hey, it’s your Hotel! I thought it was your idea! “Whatever.” Fine, forget it. Seriously, though, I discussed this with a few people and I’ve changed my mind. No Final Votes, folks. I want to move the game along at this point, but I think 48 hour Days and brief Nights are the best, most fair way. Just regular votes, folks. Them’s the rules and we’re sticking to 'em. 🙂 ---
**Author:** ![Wolverine](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/w/ba9def/32.png) [@Wolverine](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Wolverine)\ **Post date:** [February 15, 2011, 1:54am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/hotel-of-heroes-mafia/567544/1299 "2011-02-15T01:54:34Z")
I’ll be back later today (your tomorrow morning) to explain my vote and postulate about 2nd scum, but I want to get this out early. **vote Suburban Plankton** This should be no surprise coming from me. ---
**Author:** ![Chronos](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/chronos/32/134_2.png) [@Chronos](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Chronos)\ **Post date:** [February 15, 2011, 5:59am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/hotel-of-heroes-mafia/567544/1300 "2011-02-15T05:59:18Z")
So, on thinking about it some more, I don’t think I should have disregarded my program’s output the other day. The reason I didn’t pay it much heed is because it tends to be weaker in the endgame, but I didn’t stop to think about _why_ it tends to be weaker in the endgame. Usually, there’s one or maybe two Scum who have an egregiously Scummy voting record, and since everyone looks at voting records (just not necessarily in the same way that I do), usually those folks are already dead by endgame (so the low-hanging fruit is already picked). That wasn’t the case this game, though: At the time, **Pleonast** was the only Scum we’d nabbed, and he hadn’t really had much time to build up a voting record. Of course, now the game has progressed enough that the program isn’t really even needed: We’re down to a simple enough case that it can be done by hand. We have four players of unknown alignment, of which two are Scum. That means that, based on the publicly-available information, we have six possible scenarios. Now, I know I’m Town, so from my point of view, there are only three possibilities to choose from: Either the last two Scum are **Wolverine** and **Suburban** , or they’re **Wolverine** and **Astral** , or they’re **Suburban** and **Astral**. Now, what my program does is it looks at every possible scenario, and for each scenario, it counts up the number of votes Town made and the number of those that were for Scum, and then it counts up the number of votes Scum made and the number of those that were for Scum. All votes cast by Townies, even retracted ones, are counted for this purpose, since it’s assumed that all Townie votes are sincere, but Scum votes are only counted if they’re in place at the end of the Day, since Scum might vote for their teammates to try to get Townie cred, but then retract those votes so as not to actually put them at danger of lynching. Now, then, the numbers: Wolverine | special ed/Scuba | Suburban Plankton | Pleonast | 29 76 5 16 Wolverine | special ed/Scuba | Astral Rejection | Pleonast | 22 75 5 16 special ed/Scuba | Suburban Plankton | Astral Rejection | Pleonast | 30 78 2 15 What this means is that, if the last Scum are **Wolverine** and **Suburban** , then 29 of the 76 votes that Townies have cast were for Scum, but only 5 of the 16 end-Day votes that Scum have cast were for Scum. Likewise, if the last Scum are **Wolverine** and **Astral** , then 22 of the 75 votes Townies cast were for Scum, but 5 out of 16 votes cast by Scum were for Scum (my program would reject this possibility, since it implies that Scum are actually doing a better job of killing themselves than Town are, which rarely happens). And if **Suburban** and **Astral** are the last two Scum, then Townies have voted for Scum 30 out of 78 times, but Scum have only ended the Day with their vote on Scum twice. I think that this last case is most likely, followed by the first. In either of these cases, **Suburban Plankton** is Scum. So I will **Vote Suburban Plankton** Basically, to sum up the evidence: **Suburban** has voted for Scum very little; Scum have not voted much for **Suburban** either, and players that we now know to have been Town have found **Suburban** disproportionately suspicious, over the course of the game. All of this points to him being more likely to be Scum. [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/hotel-of-heroes-mafia/567544.md?page=64) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/hotel-of-heroes-mafia/567544.md?page=66)