# House Speaker Contest **URL:** \ **Category:** Politics & Elections\ **Created:** [November 12, 2022, 12:48am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/house-speaker-contest/974770 "2022-11-12T00:48:06Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 8
**Author:** ![flurb](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/f/51bf81/32.png) [@flurb](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/flurb)\ **Post date:** [December 25, 2022, 4:20pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/house-speaker-contest/974770/141 "2022-12-25T16:20:33Z")
> [@DSeid](#): > > Just as preferring to have the House do nothing to compromise is brand for Freedom Caucus, pragmatism in service of conservative fiscal aims is their brand. They won primaries and generals with that brand. How is electing an alternative Speaker in collusion with House Democrats going to help them advance “conservative fiscal aims”? ---
**Author:** ![DSeid](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/dseid/32/20194_2.png) [@DSeid](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DSeid)\ **Post date:** [December 25, 2022, 4:38pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/house-speaker-contest/974770/142 "2022-12-25T16:38:10Z")
They’d have a GOP speaker, GOP control of the committees they care about, the ability to set the agenda of House work, and the possibility of finding enough fiscally center conservative Democrats to get bills passed in a … gasp … bipartisan manner. As opposed to the alternative of constant impeachments and theater as the definite only thing that happens. If they can go back in two years and show real progress on issues they ran on then they will be able to win again. If they could have been successfully primaried they likely would have been this last time. ---
**Author:** ![Dinsdale](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/97f17d/32.png) [@Dinsdale](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Dinsdale)\ **Post date:** [December 25, 2022, 4:47pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/house-speaker-contest/974770/143 "2022-12-25T16:47:02Z")
Yeah - would be nice if a sizable portion of Congress decided to revisit the idea of actually - you know - governing?! ---
**Author:** ![flurb](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/f/51bf81/32.png) [@flurb](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/flurb)\ **Post date:** [December 25, 2022, 5:04pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/house-speaker-contest/974770/144 "2022-12-25T17:04:38Z")
> [@DSeid](#): > > They’d have a GOP speaker, GOP control of the committees they care about, the ability to set the agenda of House work, and the possibility of finding enough fiscally center conservative Democrats to get bills passed in a … gasp … bipartisan manner. And then why would progressives (who have 100 members in the House) agree to vote for this consensus Speaker knowing their priorities would be discarded in favor of those of “moderate” Republicans and fiscally conservative Democrats? The idea of a centrist, bipartisan majority in the House is just daydreaming. It’s like the Forward Party (remember them?) – sounds nice in theory but falls apart when you consider the interests and motivations of those in our political system. ---
**Author:** ![DSeid](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/dseid/32/20194_2.png) [@DSeid](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DSeid)\ **Post date:** [December 25, 2022, 5:32pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/house-speaker-contest/974770/145 "2022-12-25T17:32:36Z")
The hypothetical assumes the FC following through on no compromise and enough other GOP refusing to completely buckle. Multiple votes. Impossible negotiated compromises then become less impossible. No one ends up getting most of what they want but enough get enough of what they need that they are willing to swallow hard to get past the stalemate. Not the FC, not the hardline progressives. Bipartisan as the ship of last resort for those desperate to move on. ---
**Author:** ![Euphonious\_Polemic](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/euphonious_polemic/32/3002_2.png) [@Euphonious\_Polemic](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Euphonious_Polemic)\ **Post date:** [December 25, 2022, 5:44pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/house-speaker-contest/974770/146 "2022-12-25T17:44:02Z")
> [@DSeid](#): > > The hypothetical assumes the FC following through on no compromise and enough other GOP refusing to completely buckle. Multiple votes. I’m not seeing the downside for the Democrats to just let this situation go on and on and on with internecine fighting and the GOP unable to do anything. For the next election cycle, the D’s can point to this and ask the electorate if they want this clown show among spoiled children to continue, or if they should elect grown-ups to manage the country and economy. ---
**Author:** ![DSeid](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/dseid/32/20194_2.png) [@DSeid](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DSeid)\ **Post date:** [December 25, 2022, 6:31pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/house-speaker-contest/974770/147 "2022-12-25T18:31:52Z")
Ultimately the complete shut down eliminates any governing being done. Sure bery bad for country, and the world, but being only cynical, bad for the Biden administration. OTOH actual bipartisan accomplishments look good for Biden or another D running if he does not. Again this impossibility only becomes less impossible if the FC actually follows through and the Main Street gang refuses complete capitulation, demonstrating that they have both adequate muscle and spine. Pretty sure of the former less of the latter. ---
**Author:** ![hajario](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/hajario/32/171_2.png) [@hajario](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/hajario)\ **Post date:** [December 25, 2022, 6:32pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/house-speaker-contest/974770/148 "2022-12-25T18:32:21Z")
As I recall, The Squad made similar rumblings against Pelosi when they were newly elected four years ago. They eventually saw reality and it wasn’t ever a real issue. McCarthy on the first ballot. Maybe one or two dickheads sit out in protest. ---
**Author:** ![DSeid](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/dseid/32/20194_2.png) [@DSeid](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DSeid)\ **Post date:** [December 25, 2022, 6:47pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/house-speaker-contest/974770/149 "2022-12-25T18:47:04Z")
“The Squad” are relatively rational pragmatists compared to a core of The FC. For The FC there is no way crazy A lets crazy B be the one to make a protest vote while _they_ … shudder …compromise. Each wants the soapbox, the attention, of being the most true to the cause no matter the pressure. Another impossible thing. ---
**Author:** ![flurb](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/f/51bf81/32.png) [@flurb](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/flurb)\ **Post date:** [December 25, 2022, 6:52pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/house-speaker-contest/974770/150 "2022-12-25T18:52:04Z")
For what it’s worth, my estimated likelihood of various candidates becoming Speaker are: 90% Kevin McCarthy 9% Steve Scalise 1% Anyone else ---
**Author:** ![Kolak\_of\_Twilo](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/kolak_of_twilo/32/73_2.png) [@Kolak\_of\_Twilo](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Kolak_of_Twilo)\ **Post date:** [December 25, 2022, 8:57pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/house-speaker-contest/974770/151 "2022-12-25T20:57:15Z")
If the GOP had a one vote majority it would still be a GOP majority. The current tensions between the two parties make it _highly unlikely_, even in that case, though still within the realm of things that are possible. Lacking a clear idea of what you mean when you say “probability” I’m not able to give a better answer. ---
**Author:** ![Lance\_Turbo](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/lance_turbo/32/6156_2.png) [@Lance\_Turbo](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Lance_Turbo)\ **Post date:** [December 25, 2022, 8:57pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/house-speaker-contest/974770/152 "2022-12-25T20:57:16Z")
Right now PredictIt has McCarthy $0.68, Scalise $0.31, and Jordan/Stefanik at about a nickel. [Who will be Speaker of the House of Representatives in the next Congress?](https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7326/Who-will-be-Speaker-of-the-House-of-Representatives-in-the-next-Congress) ---
**Author:** ![slicedalone](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/slicedalone/32/12515_2.png) [@slicedalone](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/slicedalone)\ **Post date:** [December 25, 2022, 9:57pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/house-speaker-contest/974770/153 "2022-12-25T21:57:54Z")
> [@Kolak\_of\_Twilo](#): > > Lacking a clear idea of what you mean when you say “probability” More likely than not. ---
**Author:** ![Bootb](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/e19b73/32.png) [@Bootb](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Bootb)\ **Post date:** [December 26, 2022, 5:42am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/house-speaker-contest/974770/154 "2022-12-26T05:42:58Z")
> [@Kolak\_of\_Twilo](#): > > Lacking a clear idea of what you mean when you say “probability” I’m not able to give a better answer. The convention is that “probability” is used for situations where the likelihood of the event happening is more than 50%, and “possibility” for when it’s under 50%. ---
**Author:** ![Kolak\_of\_Twilo](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/kolak_of_twilo/32/73_2.png) [@Kolak\_of\_Twilo](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Kolak_of_Twilo)\ **Post date:** [December 26, 2022, 6:13am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/house-speaker-contest/974770/155 "2022-12-26T06:13:36Z")
Not sure about that definition of “probability” but I would say the chances of some Democrats and some Republicans coming together in any configuration of the House to elect a Speaker, whether R or D, is something like 1 in 100,000. And I think I’m being very generous with those numbers. Or as I said previously, possible but highly unlikely. ---
**Author:** ![Euphonious\_Polemic](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/euphonious_polemic/32/3002_2.png) [@Euphonious\_Polemic](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Euphonious_Polemic)\ **Post date:** [December 26, 2022, 8:33pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/house-speaker-contest/974770/156 "2022-12-26T20:33:24Z")
It would need 10 or so Republican representatives to gain courage, or for their hearts to grow three sizes. So not at all likely. ---
**Author:** ![DrDeth](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/b487fb/32.png) [@DrDeth](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DrDeth)\ **Post date:** [December 26, 2022, 8:40pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/house-speaker-contest/974770/157 "2022-12-26T20:40:48Z")
Well, it also could occur with the Dems making a deal with “Never Kevin” and giving him the votes. The deal would be secret of course. It could be done if the far right nominates someone, so the Dems say they h_ave to_ throw votes behind McCarthy as the other guy is so horrible. ---
**Author:** ![DSeid](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/dseid/32/20194_2.png) [@DSeid](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DSeid)\ **Post date:** [December 26, 2022, 8:46pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/house-speaker-contest/974770/158 "2022-12-26T20:46:56Z")
Again I think McCarthy as Speaker first to third vote is the most likely outcome; it is the absurdist odds that I question. No one need be brave. They just have to be more afraid of one thing than another. Complete capitulation to a handful of the craziest of the craziest is a scary thing for their political survival. Complete shut down too. If multiple votes occur and the only alternative option is dealing with Democratic devils? Improbable maybe. One in hundred thousand as hyperbole? Maybe. I for one won’t be _shocked_ if it comes to that though. ---
**Author:** ![PhillyGuy](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/p/ed655f/32.png) [@PhillyGuy](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/PhillyGuy)\ **Post date:** [December 27, 2022, 2:21am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/house-speaker-contest/974770/159 "2022-12-27T02:21:49Z")
> [@flurb](#): > > What’s in it for Democrats? Anything that can get 60 votes in the Senate will come to the floor in the House, and almost certainly be passed. Anything that can get 50 votes in the Senate, or a few more, and that the Senate parliamentarian rules can be classified as budget reconciliation, will be highly likely to come to the floor in the House, and will probably pass. As for what’s in it politically for the Democrats, Speaker Kevin McCarthy would try his best to make Biden a failed President. This admittedly unlikely manuver would frustrate that. ---
**Author:** ![slicedalone](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/slicedalone/32/12515_2.png) [@slicedalone](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/slicedalone)\ **Post date:** [December 27, 2022, 8:53am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/house-speaker-contest/974770/160 "2022-12-27T08:53:14Z")
> [@DSeid](#): > > it is the absurdist odds that I question. Yes, this is an arrogant position to take, the billion zillion to one odds against. I wouldn’t give 100,000 to one odds that we won’t have a two-headed Speaker at some point. If you think it’s very unlikely (a Dem-Rep, not a two-headed Speaker) and want to set the odds at a thousand to one, I could see that (and probably take your bet, because I think that’s way too high) but 100,000 to one? I’d take that for a penny, maybe even a nickel or a quarter if I’m feeling flush. You might have trouble raising the 25 grand if the GOP gets into a fix, though. [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/house-speaker-contest/974770.md?page=7) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/house-speaker-contest/974770.md?page=9)