# How Afraid are All the Democrats. . . **URL:** \ **Category:** Politics & Elections\ **Created:** [March 13, 2012, 6:24pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-afraid-are-all-the-democrats/615671 "2012-03-13T18:24:02Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 1
**Author:** ![tullsterx](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/t/e9bcb4/32.png) [@tullsterx](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/tullsterx)\ **Post date:** [March 13, 2012, 6:24pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-afraid-are-all-the-democrats/615671/1 "2012-03-13T18:24:02Z")
. . . that flood this board of Obama’s falling poll numbers? You guys seem to be pretty much in denial about everything else, how are you rationalizing this? ---
**Author:** ![Simplicio](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/c37758/32.png) [@Simplicio](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Simplicio)\ **Post date:** [March 13, 2012, 6:25pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-afraid-are-all-the-democrats/615671/2 "2012-03-13T18:25:18Z")
[Rationalize what?](http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/other/president_obama_job_approval-1044.html) ---
**Author:** ![tullsterx](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/t/e9bcb4/32.png) [@tullsterx](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/tullsterx)\ **Post date:** [March 13, 2012, 6:38pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-afraid-are-all-the-democrats/615671/3 "2012-03-13T18:38:04Z")
> [@Simplicio](#): > > [Rationalize what?](http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/other/president_obama_job_approval-1044.html) Oh, OK, you’re just in plain ole vanilla denial. OK. ---
**Author:** ![Ca3799](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/c/9f8e36/32.png) [@Ca3799](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Ca3799)\ **Post date:** [March 13, 2012, 6:38pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-afraid-are-all-the-democrats/615671/4 "2012-03-13T18:38:46Z")
What poll are you citing? Linky? ---
**Author:** ![Marley23](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/45deac/32.png) [@Marley23](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Marley23)\ **Post date:** [March 13, 2012, 6:41pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-afraid-are-all-the-democrats/615671/5 "2012-03-13T18:41:45Z")
> [@tullsterx](#): > > Oh, OK, you’re just in plain ole vanilla denial. OK. Do you want to discuss how Democrats’ feel about Obama’s poll numbers, or do you want to bash Democrats? The first one is a topic for the Elections forum and the second topic belongs in the Pit. ---
**Author:** ![YogSothoth](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/y/8edcca/32.png) [@YogSothoth](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/YogSothoth)\ **Post date:** [March 13, 2012, 6:42pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-afraid-are-all-the-democrats/615671/6 "2012-03-13T18:42:01Z")
Does it get your knickers wet to imagine Democrats flustered or something? ---
**Author:** ![Simplicio](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/c37758/32.png) [@Simplicio](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Simplicio)\ **Post date:** [March 13, 2012, 6:42pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-afraid-are-all-the-democrats/615671/7 "2012-03-13T18:42:44Z")
> [@tullsterx](#): > > Oh, OK, you’re just in plain ole vanilla denial. OK. Denial of what? I don’t see any appreciable drop off of Obama’s approval ratings in the graph I linked to. If you have evidence that says otherwise, feel free to link. If your just opening this thread to cast aspersions on Democrats, you probably have the wrong forum and should ask the mods to move this the Pit. But in anycase, regardless of what they’re doing currently, I’m sure Obama’s poll ratings will move up and down frequently prior to the election. I doubt anyone “denies” this. ---
**Author:** ![Marley23](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/45deac/32.png) [@Marley23](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Marley23)\ **Post date:** [March 13, 2012, 6:43pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-afraid-are-all-the-democrats/615671/8 "2012-03-13T18:43:26Z")
> [@YogSosoth](#): > > Does it get your knickers wet to imagine Democrats flustered or something? Knock it off. ---
**Author:** ![C3](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/c3/32/3108_2.png) [@C3](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/C3)\ **Post date:** [March 13, 2012, 6:48pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-afraid-are-all-the-democrats/615671/9 "2012-03-13T18:48:12Z")
Since the OP doesn’t seem familiar with the etiquette around here (surprising, considering his join date), here’s what he’s talking about: [Latest polls show a drop in Obama’s approval rating](http://www.globalpost.com/dispatch/news/regions/americas/united-states/120313/obamas-approval-ratings-drop-video), with most respondents specifically citing high gas prices as their bugaboo. ---
**Author:** ![John\_DiFool](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/john_difool/32/19543_2.png) [@John\_DiFool](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/John_DiFool)\ **Post date:** [March 13, 2012, 6:52pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-afraid-are-all-the-democrats/615671/10 "2012-03-13T18:52:29Z")
If that is the one that the NYT ran today (I buy it for the excellent science section), then the one which is ringing my bullshit detector is the 10 point drop in support by women-after the 3 weeks or so we’ve had of Contraceptiongate. Free clue: you have to examine a number of different polls-one doesn’t tell you much, esp. when you mix in bias and leading questions and sampling errors on top of the purely mathematic margin of error. ---
**Author:** ![Lobohan](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/lobohan/32/79_2.png) [@Lobohan](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Lobohan)\ **Post date:** [March 13, 2012, 6:53pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-afraid-are-all-the-democrats/615671/11 "2012-03-13T18:53:42Z")
Since the GOP are lying about how they will use magic to lower gas prices, it only makes sense that there would be some flex in the numbers. With FOX News and the candidates singing in chorus about how the prices are specifically the result of Obama’s deciding to increase them, of course the vast, uninformed, middle are gonna bob in that direction. What else are Democrats in denial about? The war on religion? The AGW hoax? 😃 ---
**Author:** ![Left\_Hand\_of\_Dorkness](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/left_hand_of_dorkness/32/7156_2.png) [@Left\_Hand\_of\_Dorkness](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Left_Hand_of_Dorkness)\ **Post date:** [March 13, 2012, 6:59pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-afraid-are-all-the-democrats/615671/12 "2012-03-13T18:59:40Z")
I remember reading about ancient kingships where, if the crop failed, the king would be ritually sacrificed and replaced by a new king. The king was the land, after all, and a failure in one indicated a failure in the other. I think about that when I hear about people blaming the president for gas prices; and Newt Gingrich’s claims of $2.50 gas remind me of a prospective king’s promise to make it rain. It seems highly likely that gas prices will continue to stay high or even increase throughout the election cycle, with possibly a seasonal dropoff as November nears. Obama will need to make the case that the president simply doesn’t have a short-term effect on gas prices, and that he’s acting in the short-term to lower financial burdens on Americans in a responsible, equitable fashion. If people weren’t stupid, this wouldn’t be an election issue. But people are, so he’ll need to deal with that. Now, **tullsterx** , I answered your question. perhaps you’d like to tell us [How Afraid are all the Tea Partiers of Republicans’ falling poll numbers](http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/2chambers/post/congress-remains-deeply-unpopular-poll-finds/2012/03/12/gIQArEjN8R_blog.html?hpid=z2)? > [@](#): > > About one-third of Americans approve of the way congressional Democrats are doing their jobs, compared to a 23-percent approval rating for Republicans. Though the numbers are poor for both parties, support for Democrats is higher across most ranges — age, education level, income level, religion and political preference. The GOP runs about evenly with Democrats among non-college-educated whites and slightly ahead of them among white evangelical Protestants, according to the poll. \ Or perhaps you’d like to comment on [the falling popularity of the Tea Party itself](http://articles.latimes.com/2011/nov/29/news/la-pn-tea-party-poll-20111129)? > [@](#): > > Overall, according to Pew, more Americans (27%) disagree with the goals of the movement than agree (20%), with half of those surveyed having no opinion. A year ago, those numbers were reversed, with 27% of Americans favoring the tea party’s aims. > > The decline has been just as steep in districts that sent a tea party follower to Congress. A year ago, 33% in those districts said they agreed with the tea party, now that number is just 25%. In contrast, those who disagreed with the tea party shot up from 18% to 23%. (In March 2010, just 10% of those surveyed said they disagreed with the tea party.) ---
**Author:** ![tullsterx](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/t/e9bcb4/32.png) [@tullsterx](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/tullsterx)\ **Post date:** [March 13, 2012, 6:59pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-afraid-are-all-the-democrats/615671/13 "2012-03-13T18:59:47Z")
I apologize for my opening trollishness. I was just inspired by all of the pro-democrat trollish threads with Republican in the title. And I assumed everyone here knows about the CBS poll that was just announced that give Obama his lowest approval rating of any major poll so far, 41%. And this 41% was listed in the link provided by the first response posted. Personally, I think this lowest poll is due to high gas prices and lots of global tension. And its one of these things that the President gets credit for or blame for regardless of what he does in a lot of ways. ---
**Author:** ![Marley23](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/45deac/32.png) [@Marley23](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Marley23)\ **Post date:** [March 13, 2012, 7:03pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-afraid-are-all-the-democrats/615671/14 "2012-03-13T19:03:40Z")
[Here’s Salon.com’s take, which says ‘don’t be too quick to assume the gas price lie is working.’](http://www.salon.com/2012/03/13/obama%E2%80%99s_sudden_polling_crash/singleton/) > [@](#): > > It may be that each poll simply began reaching voters at the worst possible time for Obama, just as the news was dominated by critical commentary of his handling of a potential foreign policy crisis and before a fresh dose of positive economic data was added to the mix. > > Some other polling released Monday suggests this is possible. Gallup’s daily tracking survey, which spans the three previous days, actually showed Obama’s approval jumping to 49 percent, as high as it’s been in months, and a clear improvement from the middle of last week, when Gallup had the president at 43 percent. And Rasmussen Reports’ daily tally gave Obama a three-point boost, from 44 to 47 percent, between Sunday and Monday. ---
**Author:** ![GrandWino](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/grandwino/32/67_2.png) [@GrandWino](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/GrandWino)\ **Post date:** [March 13, 2012, 7:04pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-afraid-are-all-the-democrats/615671/15 "2012-03-13T19:04:44Z")
[Nate Silver did a nice analysis on this the other day.](http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/2012/03/12/approval-ratings-gas-prices-and-statistical-noise/) ---
**Author:** ![pseudotriton\_ruber\_ruber](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/p/a9a28c/32.png) [@pseudotriton\_ruber\_ruber](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/pseudotriton_ruber_ruber)\ **Post date:** [March 13, 2012, 7:07pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-afraid-are-all-the-democrats/615671/16 "2012-03-13T19:07:24Z")
I saw a brilliant clip recently of the likes of Bill O’Reilly and other Fox talking heads mocking the concept that the POTUS has any influence whatsoever over oil prices, and that people pretending that he does are partisan fools–all dated 2006 or so, of course, but running such clips should be sufficient to defuse the “gas-prices” strategy, at least among voters above a 90 IQ. Obama might not even go that low to win–perhaps he can focus on the 95+ voters for his victory. ---
**Author:** ![Simplicio](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/c37758/32.png) [@Simplicio](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Simplicio)\ **Post date:** [March 13, 2012, 7:15pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-afraid-are-all-the-democrats/615671/17 "2012-03-13T19:15:31Z")
> [@Bob Ducca](#): > > [Nate Silver did a nice analysis on this the other day.](http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/2012/03/12/approval-ratings-gas-prices-and-statistical-noise/) Yea, I think you need to look at running poll averages like the one I linked to. You’ll drive yourself crazy hanging on every new poll, as simple statistical noise will have them jumping around by several points every time a new one is issued. But in anycase, it would be weird if high oil prices didn’t have some downward pressure on the incumbants polling. > [@prr](#): > > I saw a brilliant clip recently of the likes of Bill O’Reilly and other Fox talking heads mocking the concept that the POTUS has any influence whatsoever over oil prices, and that people pretending that he does are partisan fools–all dated 2006 or so, of course, but running such clips should be sufficient to defuse the “gas-prices” strategy, at least among voters above a 90 IQ. Obama might not even go that low to win–perhaps he can focus on the 95+ voters for his victory. Oddly, I think high oil prices are Obama’s fault, in that he was the leader in getting tougher oil sanctions on Iran, and the current run up in prices appear to be due to people stockpiling in fear that the sanctions will lead to wider oil supply disruptions. But of course, the issue is never framed in terms of lifting sanctions with Iran v. paying more at the pump. ---
**Author:** ![tullsterx](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/t/e9bcb4/32.png) [@tullsterx](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/tullsterx)\ **Post date:** [March 13, 2012, 7:24pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-afraid-are-all-the-democrats/615671/18 "2012-03-13T19:24:59Z")
> [@Left\_Hand\_of\_Dorkness](#): > > I remember reading about ancient kingships where, if the crop failed, the king would be ritually sacrificed and replaced by a new king. The king was the land, after all, and a failure in one indicated a failure in the other. > > I think about that when I hear about people blaming the president for gas prices; and Newt Gingrich’s claims of $2.50 gas remind me of a prospective king’s promise to make it rain. > > It seems highly likely that gas prices will continue to stay high or even increase throughout the election cycle, with possibly a seasonal dropoff as November nears. Obama will need to make the case that the president simply doesn’t have a short-term effect on gas prices, and that he’s acting in the short-term to lower financial burdens on Americans in a responsible, equitable fashion. > > If people weren’t stupid, this wouldn’t be an election issue. But people are, so he’ll need to deal with that. I agree will all of that. > [@](#): > > Now, **tullsterx** , I answered your question. perhaps you’d like to tell us [How Afraid are all the Tea Partiers of Republicans’ falling poll numbers](http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/2chambers/post/congress-remains-deeply-unpopular-poll-finds/2012/03/12/gIQArEjN8R_blog.html?hpid=z2)? > \ > > Or perhaps you’d like to comment on [the falling popularity of the Tea Party itself](http://articles.latimes.com/2011/nov/29/news/la-pn-tea-party-poll-20111129)? I think the Tea Party is/was just a passing thing. It’s not surprising that that effort should fade somewhat. As far as congressional poll numbers, generally it makes little sense to compare presidential approval with congressional approval. Congress is a consortium of representatives all . . . sorry got work to do. . . . ---
**Author:** ![Ravenman](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/ravenman/32/2929_2.png) [@Ravenman](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Ravenman)\ **Post date:** [March 13, 2012, 7:28pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-afraid-are-all-the-democrats/615671/19 "2012-03-13T19:28:57Z")
> [@tullsterx](#): > > I apologize for my opening trollishness. … > > And I assumed everyone here knows about the CBS poll that was just announced that give Obama his lowest approval rating of any major poll so far, 41%. And this 41% was listed in the link provided by the first response posted. Look, one poll does not a trend make. Did you start jumping for joy when one poll showed Santorum [up](http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2012/president/us/general_election_santorum_vs_obama-2912.html) by three points on Obama? To become jubilant, depressed, anxious, reassured, panicked, annoyed, emboldened, or whatever extreme emotion one may choose all on the basis of one or two polls, is to be clearly out of touch with political realities. When polls start consistently describing a trend, then one should start taking it seriously. Even if there is a trend in Obama’s approval rating moving down, everyone needs to take a deep breath and acknowledge reality on reality’s terms: personal approval polls in March aren’t going to determine the election in November. Lots of things can happen in the next 7 months: unemployment can drop a point, go up a point, gas prices may go up a lot or down a little, who knows? But I will point out that the personal approval rating of Mitt Romney seems to be stuck at the sub-30% mark – [cite.](http://msnbcmedia.msn.com/i/MSNBC/Sections/A_Politics/_Today_Stories_Teases/12202_March_NBC_WSJ.pdf) The rest of the Republican field is even worse. Finally, Intrade is putting the chances of Obama’s re-election at about 60%. That seems about right to me. ---
**Author:** ![BrainGlutton](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/82dd89/32.png) [@BrainGlutton](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/BrainGlutton)\ **Post date:** [March 13, 2012, 8:40pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-afraid-are-all-the-democrats/615671/20 "2012-03-13T20:40:36Z")
> [@C3](#): > > Since the OP doesn’t seem familiar with the etiquette around here (surprising, considering his join date), here’s what he’s talking about: [Latest polls show a drop in Obama’s approval rating](http://www.globalpost.com/dispatch/news/regions/americas/united-states/120313/obamas-approval-ratings-drop-video), with most respondents specifically citing high gas prices as their bugaboo. Well, then, in answer to the OP, here’s a good optimistic rationalization of that: People are pissed now, predictably, and predictably blame whoever’s in charge when things go bad – but, when they walk into the booth in November, how many are **really** going to expect lower gas prices out of a Romney Admin? Only those who would have voted for the Pub in any circumstances, I daresay. [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-afraid-are-all-the-democrats/615671.md?page=2)