# How bad a condition does it take for the Democratic or Republican Party to be \*truly\* doomed? **URL:** \ **Category:** Politics & Elections\ **Created:** [February 7, 2020, 7:54pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-bad-a-condition-does-it-take-for-the-democratic-or-republican-party-to-be-truly-doomed/847599 "2020-02-07T19:54:43Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 7\ **Page:** 3
**Author:** ![Velocity](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/velocity/32/18006_2.png) [@Velocity](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Velocity)\ **Post date:** [February 10, 2020, 3:19pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-bad-a-condition-does-it-take-for-the-democratic-or-republican-party-to-be-truly-doomed/847599/41 "2020-02-10T15:19:40Z")
> [@Steve\_MB](#): > > If one judges from [the previous occurrence](https://nymag.com/intelligencer/2016/02/gops-2012-autopsy-report-is-officially-dead.html), the process will be more like hire some big hitters to figure out why they lost, look at the recommendations, and say “eff that; let’s just cheat better next time”. But that’s not at all what \*\*UltraVires \*\*said/meant. The 2012 election was a comparatively narrow loss for the Republicans. They didn’t have to tinker and change their approach that much. \*\*UltraVires \*\*was referring to an absolute blowout loss from top to bottom at every level. ---
**Author:** ![Gyrate](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/gyrate/32/3588_2.png) [@Gyrate](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Gyrate)\ **Post date:** [February 10, 2020, 3:21pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-bad-a-condition-does-it-take-for-the-democratic-or-republican-party-to-be-truly-doomed/847599/42 "2020-02-10T15:21:57Z")
I don’t think either the Democrats or the Republicans are doomed. Democracy, however, isn’t looking too good. ---
**Author:** ![Red\_Wiggler](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/red_wiggler/32/13190_2.png) [@Red\_Wiggler](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Red_Wiggler)\ **Post date:** [February 10, 2020, 4:36pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-bad-a-condition-does-it-take-for-the-democratic-or-republican-party-to-be-truly-doomed/847599/43 "2020-02-10T16:36:30Z")
If the Dems win back the White House and Senate this year and then hold them for a couple of cycles, Republicans will just shift towards the center a little to stay competitive. In a two party system, we’re pretty much always going to have two main parties. However, we should be working towards a better electoral system that will result in more likelihood of viable third parties. I believe it’s self-interest that slows Dem support for reforms that might nudge us in this direction and they piss me off by doing so. ---
**Author:** ![Thing\_Fish](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/t/ecb155/32.png) [@Thing\_Fish](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Thing_Fish)\ **Post date:** [February 10, 2020, 4:55pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-bad-a-condition-does-it-take-for-the-democratic-or-republican-party-to-be-truly-doomed/847599/44 "2020-02-10T16:55:02Z")
> [@UltraVires](#): > > Even so, these parties were not in the wilderness that long. The GOP in the mid-30s was almost extinct. Ten years later it had a majority in Congress and won the presidency fifteen years later (would have won 12 years later if not for “Dewey Defeats Truman”) > > Same with the Dems after the Civil War. “Tied” Hayes in 1876 and won in 1884. And that was after engaging in open rebellion (and yes, regaining control after disenfranchising blacks) but the point is that no party will stay in the wilderness too long. > > Let’s say that in 2030 the Dems have the presidency, 400 seats in the House and 85 seats in the Senate. You think the GOP will just get a box and start cleaning out the campaign office? Of course not. They will hire some big hitters to come up with a plan to figure out why they lost, change strategy accordingly, and start winning elections. Plus, the Dems will be complacent after winning such landslide margins that they will be neglecting people: those very people the GOP will swoop up. > > The unhappy people out there? Those are the people who will vote for the other party. That’s why there will always be an “other” party. Sure, but it’s also possible that some large fraction of the GOP would conclude that the “Republican” label had become an albatross, and the party would split into two groups pursuing different electoral strategies, one of which would eventually prove superior. In the long run, though, times where there are more or less than two parties are rare and don’t last long. ---
**Author:** ![Thing\_Fish](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/t/ecb155/32.png) [@Thing\_Fish](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Thing_Fish)\ **Post date:** [February 10, 2020, 5:07pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-bad-a-condition-does-it-take-for-the-democratic-or-republican-party-to-be-truly-doomed/847599/45 "2020-02-10T17:07:18Z")
> [@UltraVires](#): > > Even so, these parties were not in the wilderness that long. The GOP in the mid-30s was almost extinct. Ten years later it had a majority in Congress and won the presidency fifteen years later (would have won 12 years later if not for “Dewey Defeats Truman”) > > Same with the Dems after the Civil War. “Tied” Hayes in 1876 and won in 1884. And that was after engaging in open rebellion (and yes, regaining control after disenfranchising blacks) but the point is that no party will stay in the wilderness too long. > > Let’s say that in 2030 the Dems have the presidency, 400 seats in the House and 85 seats in the Senate. You think the GOP will just get a box and start cleaning out the campaign office? Of course not. They will hire some big hitters to come up with a plan to figure out why they lost, change strategy accordingly, and start winning elections. Plus, the Dems will be complacent after winning such landslide margins that they will be neglecting people: those very people the GOP will swoop up. > > The unhappy people out there? Those are the people who will vote for the other party. That’s why there will always be an “other” party. Another crucial question about that hypothetical: WHY does the GOP still have those 15 Senators? Is it because there’s a small handful of States where they still enjoy a comfortable majority, or because there’s a larger handful of States where they MIGHT win once in a while if all the stars align correctly? In the former scenario, the self-interest of those Senators would to be stick with the brand that’s working for them. But if none of them actually feel confident that being a Republican is best for their long-term career prospects, it’s a different story. ---
**Author:** ![Pantastic](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/p/3bc359/32.png) [@Pantastic](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Pantastic)\ **Post date:** [February 10, 2020, 5:43pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-bad-a-condition-does-it-take-for-the-democratic-or-republican-party-to-be-truly-doomed/847599/46 "2020-02-10T17:43:00Z")
I think the most likely way to get rid of a major party is if a third party manages to outdo them a presidential race. If Ross Perot had not dropped out of the '92 campaign, it’s possible that him coming in second (or even winning, though that was extremely unlikely) would be enough for people to decide that one of the major parties was not feasible anymore. I don’t see getting rid of either party without a major dramatic event like that. The parties are too entrenched to be easily removed, and they’re quite capable of radically changing platforms and messages over time to stay relevant. The Republicans will have to change to adjust to changing demographics, but they’ve done so before and there’s no reason to think that they want. Since people are making Watergate comparisons, look at the modern GOP vs the 1970s GOP through the leans of the impeach-threatened presidents. Nixon would likely be derided as downright communist today, as he floated a plan for Universal Basic Income and one for Universal Health Care - that even included a much derided Employer Mandate. Oh and he signed the EPA into being, and was in favor of a complete ban on handguns just to grab two other hot button issues. I think this is a striking demonstration of just how much the parties can shift - two of those are significantly left of Hillary Clinton, and two are roughly the same. If the Republicans could not only stomach but endorse a candidate in favor of UBI, UHC, the EPA, and a complete handgun ban at one point but deride even the mere mention of any of those today, it is clear that parties can change their focus significantly without folding. ---
**Author:** ![drad\_dog](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/aeb1de/32.png) [@drad\_dog](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/drad_dog)\ **Post date:** [February 10, 2020, 5:46pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-bad-a-condition-does-it-take-for-the-democratic-or-republican-party-to-be-truly-doomed/847599/47 "2020-02-10T17:46:12Z")
> [@UltraVires](#): > > Even so, these parties were not in the wilderness that long. The GOP in the mid-30s was almost extinct. Ten years later it had a majority in Congress and won the presidency fifteen years later (would have won 12 years later if not for “Dewey Defeats Truman”) > > Same with the Dems after the Civil War. “Tied” Hayes in 1876 and won in 1884. And that was after engaging in open rebellion (and yes, regaining control after disenfranchising blacks) but the point is that no party will stay in the wilderness too long. > > Let’s say that in 2030 the Dems have the presidency, 400 seats in the House and 85 seats in the Senate. You think the GOP will just get a box and start cleaning out the campaign office? Of course not. They will hire some big hitters to come up with a plan to figure out why they lost, change strategy accordingly, and start winning elections. Plus, the Dems will be complacent after winning such landslide margins that they will be neglecting people: those very people the GOP will swoop up. > > The unhappy people out there? Those are the people who will vote for the other party. That’s why there will always be an “other” party. The OP is about the potential death of an actual party, not whether there will be an other one to fill the gap structurally. [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-bad-a-condition-does-it-take-for-the-democratic-or-republican-party-to-be-truly-doomed/847599.md?page=2)