We are always going to have two parties, and they are likely to be called “Democrats” and “Republicans” as long as the USA stands. That doesn’t mean they are not dying, it is just the name that remains.
Parties typically survive by shifting, appealing to newer groups of voters and alienating some of the existing ones. We’ve seen this with the Democratic Party’s embrace of civil rights and the simultaneous shift by Republicans to grab white racists who felt disenfranchised by their historically racist party.
The most recent example of a shift is the Republican shift away from global trade to a more nationalistic position, which probably sets up an opportunity for Democrats to embrace a different position: one that favors trade but with worker protection and wage standards.
I think that another potential shift that might be lying right in front of Democrats is an appeal to religious organizations, but not the ones that are frothing at the mouth, but rather, as Buttigieg has done, offering a different definition of what religion is and can be, a definition that’s more appealing to a wider and younger audience.
Oh, no doubt about that if the anti-trade thing continues with the Republicans past Trump. Bernie has brought some of the anti trade activists along but they’re basically only there for Bernie and you’re not building the Democratic Party on a base of Starbucks window smashing anti-WTO anarchists. The younger educated urban Democrats realize trade is good.
But, I think with the Republicans, anti-trade dies with Trump. No one has been out there praising his silly trade war.
I don’t understand yet how trumpers, conservatives and republicans are going to self organize after trump. Some will be too toxic. What party is for them? How are you going to share a party with a trumper if you aren’t one? Why on earth would you want to?
On the state level, some parties are already doomed. The GOP seems doomed in California the same way the democrats are doomed in places like Oklahoma.
On a national level though? I don’t know if it’ll happen anytime soon. Even with demographic changes, the GOP will still do well in white majority states even by mid century.
My understanding is that the authoritarianism in the Trump GOP is causing a schism between high school educated whites and college educated whites.
College educated whites are turned off by the racism and authoritarianism of the modern GOP, while high school educated whites tend to like it.
Education is a proxy for authoritarianism and prejudice FWIW, When you control for those factors the education gap among whites pretty much disappears.
But anyway, I’m guessing college educated whites become swing voters and the GOP doubles down on rural areas and high school educated whites. This is already happening as the suburbs go from being red to purple.
The problem is that, I think (not sure) that even high school educated white women are getting disgusted by Trump, leaving only white high school educated men as Trumps base. They may prefer the GOP 3-1, but they are also only about 20% of the electorate. High school educated white women are still republican, but I think the gap is narrowing.
There will be pressure on the right trying to hold their party together from the drip of revelations about ternps behavior after he is out of office. (I have to assume here that democracy and the DOJ will still exist after dt. It’s not a given at this instant)
Depending on how long and intense the drip is it will be a test for any party.
That is an issue the GOP will have to deal with. They have a lot of college educated voters that could be Republicans but get turned off by the anti-science and evangelical right wing Christianity in the Republican Party. They’re not obsessed with abortion, bathroom bills, gay adoption bans, etc. They’d like to hear other solutions to climate change but don’t necessarily want a green new deal.
Parties evolve and if the SDMB exists in 2030, we can bump this and see what happened.
We are talking about a major party in the US fragmenting because it’s not acknowledging reality(?!). I’m not confident in any predictions havng to do with american conventional wisdom. I think we may have lost cw in the US. Certainly cw cannot apply to the potus or his voters.
This.
No party is doomed. Period.
The pendulum always swings. Even if demographics is destiny for Democrats and the GOP becomes demographically unable to win, the GOP will still win a race in the future, most likely.
The question is what do the right do without science or democracy and what will they do to democracy out of hatred of fellow americans. They are very clearly looking overseas for their colleagues and compatriots, in the ranks of the anti-democracy leaders.
I don’t see a US conservative party anymore frankly. They won’t be righties as americans. They are going to “save civilization” (white) and ratfuck liberalism out of pique. Of course every system failure after that is something that Clinton or Obama “really” did.
In america if you don’t like the way it’s going demographically then you might have no other choice than to go against democracy, and be a fascist. I don’t see how the right can hold onto a relationship with freedom and democracy. The signals they are sending now are very clear.
So how does any party come out of that?
The GOP has had this coalition and dealt with it since Reagan. The moderates get lower taxes and regulations and the base gets pro-gun, pro-religion stuff. The rich moderates sneer at conservatives, but they now they need them to get a majority and vice versa.
At the risk of sounding like some of my more colorful FB friends, both the Democratic and the Republican Parties are entrenched and primarily funded by the same corporate moneyed interests. The actual two parties that exist are the voters and the non-voters. The only condition I can see that would damage the Democratic/Republican axis is if the non-voters were somehow engaged by a real alternative. However, as we can see with some of the establishment treatment of Bernie, any alternative will have a massive hurdle to overcome against the D/R axis. Trump, Bernie, and Bloomburg, could all have been called alternatives to the established parties, but they all aligned themselves with one of the two parties in order to get their voices heard. If some charismatic individual could figure out how to break this axis and engage non-voters (and get money flowing), that is the only chance I see of weakening the duopoly.
The Republicans were doomed by Watergate :dubious:, which is why we only have Democrats and Whigs now.
Talk of demographic inevitability or even Trump fallout “dooming” the Republican party is both off-base and dangerous, in that it encourages laziness on the part of the opposition. There’s always going to be support for an alternative(s) to the Left/Democrats, whatever it may be called in the future.
There have been no end of watergate comparisons lately and they all are “contrasts” for purposes of comparison and locating us in the present. We all know what the difference is.
The irrationality of the R party is something that should not make anyone lazy at all. It is an opportunity: to make progress, save democracy, and defeat enemies.
A U.S. President, without a congressional base, is nearly powerless unless he or she acts the dictator.
The last time a new major U.S. political party arose – the Republican Party – it did not elect a President until it had a large base in state governments and the U.S. Congress. This is the little d democratic model for party creation.
We right now can see a model where a charismatic president engaged in a successful hostile takeover of a major party. If that’s your model, count me out.
I think for one party to disintegrate there are two necessary conditions: for the party to seem to have very little short term hope of winning a national election, and for major factions within the party to fundamentally disagree with each other. Both these conditions applied to the collapse of the Whigs, but only the first applied to the Democrats during Reconstruction or the GOP during the New Deal era.
History tells us to be cautious in predicting such rare events, but I’d have to think the chance of such a thing happening in the near future are higher now than they have been at most times in history.
Even so, these parties were not in the wilderness that long. The GOP in the mid-30s was almost extinct. Ten years later it had a majority in Congress and won the presidency fifteen years later (would have won 12 years later if not for “Dewey Defeats Truman”)
Same with the Dems after the Civil War. “Tied” Hayes in 1876 and won in 1884. And that was after engaging in open rebellion (and yes, regaining control after disenfranchising blacks) but the point is that no party will stay in the wilderness too long.
Let’s say that in 2030 the Dems have the presidency, 400 seats in the House and 85 seats in the Senate. You think the GOP will just get a box and start cleaning out the campaign office? Of course not. They will hire some big hitters to come up with a plan to figure out why they lost, change strategy accordingly, and start winning elections. Plus, the Dems will be complacent after winning such landslide margins that they will be neglecting people: those very people the GOP will swoop up.
The unhappy people out there? Those are the people who will vote for the other party. That’s why there will always be an “other” party.
A US political party is not merely a national committee incorporated as a nonprofit in Delaware. Beyond are state, county, and community committees with organizers, fundraisers, and partisans. Party “collapse” means wiping all those off the map. Even California’s Dem majority faces a strong GOP such as controls my legislative districts. The long-term post-Nixon Reactionary/Religious Right strategy started way down at mundane levels - town councils, community groups, school and utility districts - and worked upward. How are Dems doing here?
BTW 3/4 of American voters are not college students or grads. Depending on educated voters is a losing game.
If one judges from the previous occurrence, the process will be more like hire some big hitters to figure out why they lost, look at the recommendations, and say “eff that; let’s just cheat better next time”.