How bad could Four More Years be?

Blix and team uncovered no evidence of WMDs or active programs thereof whatsoever, nor have following US inspections. If Blix and IAEA had been allowed to complete the job, they might have found evidence, if it existed, but not finding any evidence would have completely invalidated Bush and Blair’s case for war. Since the inspectors and the UN were booted out of Iraq by impending US and UK-sponsored war (NOT by Saddam), the premature departure of independent weapons inspectors is best not brought up as evidence of UN failure, because it’s nonsense. They were doing a fine job up until they were kicked out – the one failing of the Blix inspections was that they failed to find what Bush wanted them to find.

The UN was “acting” just fine until Bush decided to derail the process. And most countries would have preferred to see the inspections process completed before resorting to war, for various reasons that include economic, religious, and cultural considerations in addition to bleeding-heart pacifism. We’ve heard a lot of hot air about “so-called allies” who were “in bed with Saddam”. Please let’s get away from this simplistic nonsense and try to focus on real issues, such as evidence instead of the cheap demonization coming from Bush and Blair and their partisan minions on this subject.

As for the UN debates, those were routinely derailed and mischaracterized by US and UK officials, who repeatedly alleged that France and Germany would “never” accept a war, and that therefore the UN must be sidelined. The actual comment from France was along the lines of “France will not support a resolution leading to automatic war”, which is what the US was pushing for. That has to be the most demonized comment I am aware of in recent history. France and Germany also provided several warnings of “clash of civilizations”, counter-productive actions, terrorist-stimulus, and so forth, which are all pretty straight-forward instances of logical reasoning, not far-fetched crystal-ball gazing.

He said he had none. Inspectors failed to find any evidence whatsoever of such weapons, and said as much, corroborating Saddam’s denial. The US said that the reams of documents Iraq provided did not demonstrate the non-existence of all suspected weapons programmes; one of the problems is that the US analysts (or, more likely, certain politicians) failed to take into account despotic bureacracy, the personal accountability of scientists and project leaders who report failure to Saddam, the chaotic and disorganized nature of Saddam’s regime, and so forth. So, still without any evidence, the US and UK continued to trumpet “imminent threat”, “WMDs”, “mushroom cloud”, etc, in pure and simple alarmist influence tactics even when the intelligence services of both countries provided strong warnings about the flimsiness of WMD evidence (warnings that were routinely ignored by politicians as they sensationalized each and every unproved claim they could lay their hands on).

This war was decided long before Blix even got sent to Iraq. It had been on the agenda for at least a year prior to invasion and (oh look) fit in perfectly with the bullshit drafted by PNAC, so let’s not kid ourselves with the whole “blame Saddam for the war because he did not show evidece of absence” propagandist cagal.

What makes you think Bush’s military adventurism is restrained by his subordinates? I think Cheney, Rumsfeld, Wolfowitz, etc., are significantly more hawkish than Bush himself. And I see no prospect of his purging the neocons from his second-term administration.

So, what I have discovered in this argument is that your definition of “tacit approval” for Bush’s policies by the Democrats seems to rest on the fact that they did not filibuster all of the things that we find objectionable (like the tax cuts). So, apparently, your definition of “tacit approval” means that perhaps 1/5 of the Democratic Senators do not feel strongly enough in opposition to the bill to completely stop all Senate business in order to block it. Just wanted to clear that up. Thanks.

I have never said that the Democrats are blameless. I think it was very ill-advised to give the awesome power they gave to someone who was known by that time to be a compulsive liar.

There is little left in your arguments here for me to dissect after Abe completely shredded them. (Thanks, Abe!) But, I think it is priceless that you suggest that all Saddam had to do was open up and show his empty hand because my impression is that this is basically what he did and our response was to claim that he was hiding several aces up his sleeve…You know all those WMDs that we knew where they were around Tikrit and Baghdad.

And, if he had shown a “working WMD program,” that would have been quite a feat because we haven’t been able to find such things after the fact.

Basically, you have answered my question which is that you cannot explain, given what we know at the moment about what he had, how he could have possibly satisfied Bush. The war was a pre-ordained conclusion. Bush’s demands were simply not possible to meet.

You and others have said it already, but I’d like to reaffirm the point I agreed with: the reason that Bush 2 won’t be as bad as it might seem, is not because of anything in Bush himself, but because of the opposition he has generated. People aren’t going to let him do evil stuff.

There was/is already opposition in the military about the Iraq adventure, (IIRC against the way the civilian leadership was going about it). Next year, when Bush 2 starts to prepare the attack on Syria, the military might well quote that famous great statesman and vice president and say: f— you.

As for terrorism, remember that there is also more *counter-*terrorism going on than ever, and everybody except the Americans are also getting better at it. So these things should kind of balance out.

Great point and I agree that this is the greatest worry.

Especially since it looks probable that either the Republicans or the Democrats are going to win the elections. Neither party has good positions on these issues.

On the other hand, I have been hearing doomsday projections since 1994. It is true that these things could fester for a long time and then suddenly explode. On the other hand there have been crises (e.g. 1998) already and they seem to have largely dissipated.

Most importantly, I trust the judgment of Alan Greenspan. That guy is really good in ways that are rarely appreciated as far as I can see. The enormous depth of his analysis, the number of factors and indicators he is considering, and his ability to recognize when things have changed and old indicators are no longer indicative and there’s need for a new analysis, all of this is unprecedented and unmatched.

And it seems that Greenspan doesn’t think that right now we’re on the brink of a crisis, or that we’re exceptionally vulnerable right now.

Breaking news - just read this in WSJ

He is however going to raise interest rates even though core inflation is extremely low because he has to try to fill the huge gaping hole that the three Bush tax cuts have left behind – tax cuts that Greenspan himself OK’d in spite of being in a position to know better. While I agree that Greenspan is (and certainly was) an eminently capable economist, I would be VERY hesitant to assign him significant measures of trust after the last few years and especially after the tax cuts episode. Greenspan has been talking and testifying about how good the economy is for the last few years if I am not mistaken – a lot of it seemed like lip service and reassurance instead of the hard-cutting economics I would expect from him.

This is your credibility. This is your credibility after you collude with the Bush administration.

Greenspan didn’t handle the Millennial situation too well either. His interest hikes took place too late, were too severe, and were implemented over too short a period, with the result that inflation was kept in control, yes, but entire sectors of the economy (and not just the “New Economy”) crashed and burned instead of performing softer landings (which led to increases in things like mass outsourcing to cheaper labour and knowledge markets and exacerbated the job growth problem).

As for Bush, well you would be hoping vainly IMO in saying that he will be restrained by anything at all. Remember, much of Bush’s agenda actually comes from the neocon camp that pervades his filthy administration, and they won’t have to worry about criticism or getting re-elected for another term – something they have to worry about now (which is just scary, considering their behaviour).

Please read this article:
http://www.tnr.com/doc.mhtml?pt=TqpbUhQ%2FgtL9SmIvpLHkfw%3D%3D

It is alarmist, but I think most of the alarms that Chait sounds are reasonable. We are witnessing a slow intentional erosion of democracy in this country. The executive and legislative branches have seized an ideological mandate which was never given to them by the voting populace. They have used fear and bullying to cement it.

IMHO. If a fearful, complacent public hands these clowns an actual popular victory in November, the country is screwed. There will be no excuse for them to unleash the full majesty of their ideology on the country. The power of the opposition parties will be eroded through gerrymandering and rule changes and complete disregard for the institutions of democracy and governmental openness. They have been doing it at full throttle since 2002 so I see no reason why they would change. An electoral victory, no matter how narrow, will just serve as proof to them that the majority of Americans are on the Bush axis of economic policy (“spend like a drunken sailor”), the Santorum/Cornyn/DeLay axis of social policy (“gay sex is gross and should be illegal”) and the Cheney/Rumsfeld/Wolfowitz axis of foreign policy (“the sun will never set on the American Empire.”)

I am hoping and acting to at least return this country to the days of glorious gridlock. Let’s put the brakes on this out-of-control minecart of policy that is the Republican hegemon.

Abe, good points.

People sometimes disagree with Alan Greenspan and it used to be, comparing the merits, that I thought Greenspan had the stronger case. But I concede I haven’t been following him too closely the last few years and he might indeed have gone mushy.

Also fresh from reading the latest right-wing shenanigans I concede that there is a large and criminal class at work and it’s indeed scary to contemplate what they might be able to achieve with their illegal and semi-legal machinations.

When I think of four more years of Shrub, one phrase keeps coming to mind.

“Patriot Act 3”

:eek:

Edwino,

I read the article you recommeded, above. Every Doper should read it, too.

On the second page, second paragraph from the bottom, Jonathan Chait writes,
“What does it mean to call the president “undemocratic”? It does not mean Bush is an aspiring dictator. Despite descending from a former president and telling confidants that God chose him to lead the country, he does not claim divine right of rule. He is not going to cancel the election or rig it with faulty ballots. (Well almost certainly not.)”

Like hell he won’t!