# How bad is Brexit going to be? **URL:** \ **Category:** In My Humble Opinion\ **Created:** [March 21, 2017, 5:30pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-bad-is-brexit-going-to-be/782701 "2017-03-21T17:30:16Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 11
**Author:** ![Grim\_Render](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/g/a87d85/32.png) [@Grim\_Render](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Grim_Render)\ **Post date:** [May 3, 2017, 10:48am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-bad-is-brexit-going-to-be/782701/202 "2017-05-03T10:48:30Z")
> [@up\_the\_junction](#): > > Too simple. Different member states want different concessions made to the UK because of their circs, and because opportunity begs. Spain needs the trade and the 900,000 residents, a bunch need the UK influence on liberalisation, the Scandies need closer military cooperation, Germany has a 50 billion euro surplus to preserve which translates into 100,000s of jobs, etc, etc > > Really, how easy is it to negotiate on behalf of 28 different sets of interests? And this is a really strong point. If the UK was charting out conflicting interests on the EU side of the table, running a hectic diplomacy, calling in favours, making promises and reminding nations of old alliances, I’d feel more comfortable about the whole issue. After all, keeping European interests divided has been your foreign policy for 800 years. The problem is, I see no sign of any of this. It is the most worrisome aspect of the whole thing. The Brexit negotiations are probably going to be the most important thing for British prosperity, maybe the existence of the UK, for generations. And you’re not going into them with what seems to be a competent leadership. I mean, looking at the weeks following the Brexit vote, this is the lot that’s going to champion you? The Conservatives ran a cannibal feeding frenzy as arranged by Mr. Magoo, and Labour the night of long knives hosted by Inspector Closeau. > [@up\_the\_junction](#): > > Also, as a partner, how much do the EU \*collective of countries \*want easy access to irreplaceable London financing expertise and sourcing, how much does the EU value Intel cooperation [on a scale that essentially preserved the French electio](http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2017/04/18/french-intelligence-foils-imminent-terror-attack-five-days-presidential/), how much do they rely on UK diplomatic influence in the anglo-sphere - and around the world, etc. > > Honestly, it’s like the UK should take a begging bowl and ask Mr Juncker and Mrs Merkel to be merciful. FFS, get a grip. Irreplaceable? There is a lot of activity in the subject of [becoming the city that strip-mines London of its finance business](http://www.businesstimes.com.sg/banking-finance/frankfurt-takes-early-lead-in-race-for-brexit-banks), in fact its spoken of as a “race” The Uk is not the British Empire any more, its not the 1800s, and Europe is not divided into a score of feuding nations. I suspect the problem is that Britains gentle decline from Empire has been obfuscated by its EU membership, and a large group of people has little understanding of how sclerotic its become. ---
**Author:** ![Stanislaus](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/stanislaus/32/3391_2.png) [@Stanislaus](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Stanislaus)\ **Post date:** [May 3, 2017, 11:01am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-bad-is-brexit-going-to-be/782701/203 "2017-05-03T11:01:38Z")
New hot take: Brexit is basically like D-Day. In the war movies, it’s tough but straightforward - storm the beach, fight fiercely against the Hun, and win the day with grit, determination and big guns. Victory is essentially a matter of character: stand up to the enemy and battle through. In reality, D-Day’s success rested on months and months of insanely detailed planning. They don’t make movies about this, because people sitting in a room is boring. But that’s what it took. Getting soldiers off the boats and on to the beach (where, for the avoidance of doubt, bravery and grit were vital and shown in full measure) is the final step in a long process. Getting them on to the boats, in the right numbers, with the right equipment, in the right order; maintaining communication between different regiments, squadrons and fleets, between armies of different countries; knowing the weather, the topography, the shore currents; taking samples of the sand from beaches by stealth to assess whether they will bear the weight of tanks; carrying out large-scale training exercises; waterproofing every last vehicle, a bunch of stuff I can’t even list because I don’t understand the technicalities of large scale continental invasions… Men, sitting in rooms, with charts and lists and technical specifications, for months and months and months. Boring technical detail which culminates in a superior strategic and tactial advantage over the enemy. Without the work, you end up with a lot of heroes slaughtered on the beaches. My increasing fear is that Davis, Fox, Johnson and May think they can get by on the movie version without bothering to waterproof their vehicles or assess the weight-bearing capabilities of the sand. ---
**Author:** ![constanze](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/c/f9ae1b/32.png) [@constanze](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/constanze)\ **Post date:** [May 3, 2017, 11:02am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-bad-is-brexit-going-to-be/782701/204 "2017-05-03T11:02:00Z")
> [@up\_the\_junction](#): > > To put my last point more succinctly: [Germany ‘interfering in General Election in attempt to undermine Theresa May’](http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2017/05/02/germany-interfering-general-election-undermine-theresa-may/): > > Imperial German gears up … It’s hard to take serious a newspaper that confuses the Minister for Europe, Michael Roth [Michael Roth (politician) - Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Michael_Roth_(politician)) with the German finance Minister, Wolfgang Schäuble [Wolfgang Schäuble - Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Wolfgang_Sch%C3%A4uble) (The guy who sits in a wheelchair). ---
**Author:** ![constanze](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/c/f9ae1b/32.png) [@constanze](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/constanze)\ **Post date:** [May 3, 2017, 11:05am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-bad-is-brexit-going-to-be/782701/205 "2017-05-03T11:05:57Z")
> [@Grim\_Render](#): > > And this is a really strong point. > > If the UK was charting out conflicting interests on the EU side of the table, running a hectic diplomacy, calling in favours, making promises and reminding nations of old alliances, I’d feel more comfortable about the whole issue. After all, keeping European interests divided has been your foreign policy for 800 years. Even than, that all 27 EU countries have stated they stand together - Spain, Poland, Hungary - and will not Broker individual deals Shows a strong Determination. And of course, the first Thing Spain thought of was not British tourists / pensioneers, but … getting Gibraltar back. Because, why not? Everything is up in the air, why worry about offending the Little Island Nation? ---
**Author:** ![constanze](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/c/f9ae1b/32.png) [@constanze](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/constanze)\ **Post date:** [May 3, 2017, 11:07am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-bad-is-brexit-going-to-be/782701/206 "2017-05-03T11:07:09Z")
> [@Grim\_Render](#): > > The Uk is not the British Empire any more, its not the 1800s, and Europe is not divided into a score of feuding nations. I suspect the problem is that Britains gentle decline from Empire has been obfuscated by its EU membership, and a large group of people has little understanding of how sclerotic its become. Or that too many Brits believe that the Empire will return if they only leave the EU? ---
**Author:** ![constanze](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/c/f9ae1b/32.png) [@constanze](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/constanze)\ **Post date:** [May 3, 2017, 11:24am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-bad-is-brexit-going-to-be/782701/207 "2017-05-03T11:24:24Z")
> [@Malden\_Capell](#): > > That’s not interfering. That’s stating that, objectively, she’s full of shit. What is this election supposed to accomplish anyway? For the british Population, I mean, not the parties and politicans getting power. It’s even worse than the Referendum: instead of voting Remain or Leave (or “now that we’ve looked at things, maybe we’ve been blinkered by politicans playing a game amongst themselves, but the consequences look not good, so maybe lets reverse this”), the Brits can decide between Tories, who are for Brexit Labour, which is also for Brexit (because Globalization is bad for workers, so instead of using the Lever of EU to put the Brakes on international companies, we’ll leave the Special Projects of the EU to help underdeveloped regions, and we will no longer use the freedom of work, which might benefit workers) UKIP, which is for radical Brexit. So … good choice there? As for May claiming it’s about getting her course of Brexit approved by the Population - what course? There is no course. The EU has published some cornerstones for the upcoming negotiations, and are behind doors working on drafting steps: doing all the necessary, boring, time-consuming nitty-gritty work. May has … made Statements without any concrete substance. Just that Britain will get everything better and all it wants (along with Ponys, I assume, because why not wish big if you’re living in Fantasyland?) ---
**Author:** ![constanze](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/c/f9ae1b/32.png) [@constanze](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/constanze)\ **Post date:** [May 3, 2017, 11:32am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-bad-is-brexit-going-to-be/782701/208 "2017-05-03T11:32:16Z")
> [@Gyrate](#): > > The Prime Minister has assured us that “having a stronger economy” will magically provide money for the NHS, which means that nurses will no longer need to resort to food banks to survive. Because everything can be fixed by giving more tax breaks to the wealthy while blaming foreigners for any problems. Ah yes, that’s why back when in the 80s Thatcher, the Iron Lady, broke the unions and privatized everything, the UK become a growing, strong, flourishing paradise. Oh wait, no, it didn’t. Workers and poor got shafted and suffer still today from the aftereffects, because the later govts. didn’t correct anything about that drastic cut. Because they found out “Hey lets blame the EU for everything that’s wrong today works, the tabloids will feed the hate, and the poor workers will still vote Tory” worked for them. So when the economy takes another hit after Brexit, the politicans can feel secure because they can still blame the EU and Germany for being so mean to them. ---
**Author:** ![Gyrate](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/gyrate/32/3588_2.png) [@Gyrate](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Gyrate)\ **Post date:** [May 3, 2017, 11:37am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-bad-is-brexit-going-to-be/782701/209 "2017-05-03T11:37:27Z")
> [@Grim\_Render](#): > > Irreplaceable? There is a lot of activity in the subject of [becoming the city that strip-mines London of its finance business](http://www.businesstimes.com.sg/banking-finance/frankfurt-takes-early-lead-in-race-for-brexit-banks), in fact its spoken of as a “race” This is an important point; the history of every industry is littered with the corpses of boom towns and “irreplaceable” businesses. But a nuanced view is necessary - London will not cease to be a major financial centre and many businesses will remain. What will end - is already ending - is the reign of London as **the** financial centre. Many businesses _will_ leave, or will decentralise and move parts of their business to places like Frankfurt. That “irreplaceable” expertise will either go with it or be sourced there; there’s nothing inherent in the British drinking water that creates unique levels of financial nous Johnny Foreigner can’t hope to achieve. London’s financial sector will not be destroyed or even decimated but it will very likely be diminished - diluted, if you prefer - and the world will move on. What it leaves behind remains to be seen. ---
**Author:** ![Chronos](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/chronos/32/134_2.png) [@Chronos](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Chronos)\ **Post date:** [May 3, 2017, 12:08pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-bad-is-brexit-going-to-be/782701/210 "2017-05-03T12:08:06Z")
> [@](#): > > Quoth **constanze** : > > As alluded to above, back when Britain was an empire, a gunboat showed up and dictated the Terms under which the British wanted to trade, and if the Brits didn’t stick to the Terms, the natives didn’t have much choice for Appeals… In other words, they negotiated trade deals. The gunboat meant that they were negotiating from a position of considerable strength, but they still negotiated the deals. And **up\_the\_junction** , why all the complaints about Germany being mean? The British people took a vote on whether they wanted Germany to continue being nice to the UK or not. They voted that they didn’t want Germany to be nice. They’re now getting exactly what they voted for. ---
**Author:** ![constanze](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/c/f9ae1b/32.png) [@constanze](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/constanze)\ **Post date:** [May 3, 2017, 12:19pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-bad-is-brexit-going-to-be/782701/211 "2017-05-03T12:19:46Z")
> [@Gyrate](#): > > But a nuanced view is necessary - London will not cease to be a major financial centre and many businesses will remain. What will end - is already ending - is the reign of London as **the** financial centre. Many businesses _will_ leave, or will decentralise and move parts of their business to places like Frankfurt. Until the Brexit went through, London Stock Exchange wanted to fuse with German Stock Exchange in Frankfurt - a “partnership among equals” - despite rebuffing attempts 10 years earlier [Deutsche Börse - Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Deutsche_B%C3%B6rse#Mergers_and_acquisitions) Obviously, something in London and Frankfurt had changed in the meantime making such a Fusion attractive; but with Brexit, the whole Thing is on ice/ off. So maybe London SE wasn’t Feeling well before; and with comapnies/ People leaving for EU because of wider market Access, it will likely be weakened. ---
**Author:** ![constanze](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/c/f9ae1b/32.png) [@constanze](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/constanze)\ **Post date:** [May 3, 2017, 12:25pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-bad-is-brexit-going-to-be/782701/212 "2017-05-03T12:25:09Z")
> [@Chronos](#): > > In other words, they negotiated trade deals. The gunboat meant that they were negotiating from a position of considerable strength, but they still negotiated the deals. “Dictating your Terms because the other side has to accept everything” is not usually what People mean today when talking about “negotiating”. May can give the EU a wish list of what GB wants to have. The EU will look at it, give back their Terms, and say “Take it or leave it”, because they are ready to let the deal fail if Agreement can not be reached. Since May has claimed to want at least the same conditions, possibly better ones, and the EU has no reasons for Special conditions for a non-member, I don’t see how May wants to accomplish that without negotiating. Which usually means giving a bit one one issue, and offering something extra elsewhere. Which May can’t do because of Trouble at home; but the EU politicans won’t get into Trouble at home for being hard on GB. If anything, most EU citizens would be angry with their politicans for being soft on GB, after all the Trouble they have been previously. ---
**Author:** ![Gyrate](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/gyrate/32/3588_2.png) [@Gyrate](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Gyrate)\ **Post date:** [May 3, 2017, 12:48pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-bad-is-brexit-going-to-be/782701/213 "2017-05-03T12:48:46Z")
> [@constanze](#): > > Until the Brexit went through, London Stock Exchange wanted to fuse with German Stock Exchange in Frankfurt - a “partnership among equals” - despite rebuffing attempts 10 years earlier [Deutsche Börse - Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Deutsche_B%C3%B6rse#Mergers_and_acquisitions) > Obviously, something in London and Frankfurt had changed in the meantime making such a Fusion attractive; but with Brexit, the whole Thing is on ice/ off. So maybe London SE wasn’t Feeling well before; and with comapnies/ People leaving for EU because of wider market Access, it will likely be weakened. …at which point the Deutsche Börse will just buy the LSE for a song. :smack: ---
**Author:** ![Chronos](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/chronos/32/134_2.png) [@Chronos](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Chronos)\ **Post date:** [May 3, 2017, 1:13pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-bad-is-brexit-going-to-be/782701/214 "2017-05-03T13:13:32Z")
Eh, even with a gunboat, a completely one-sided trade deal is likely to just get you a bunch of natives rebelling. Once that happens, even if the gunboat can quell the rebellion, you’ve probably decreased the value you can get out of the colony considerably. So there was still a motivation to make some sort of actual deal, just one that was skewed in favor of the side with the gunboat. ---
**Author:** ![up\_the\_junction](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/u/f1d935/32.png) [@up\_the\_junction](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/up_the_junction)\ **Post date:** [May 3, 2017, 2:46pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-bad-is-brexit-going-to-be/782701/215 "2017-05-03T14:46:51Z")
> [@Chronos](#): > > And **up\_the\_junction** , why all the complaints about Germany being mean? The British people took a vote on whether they wanted Germany to continue being nice to the UK or not. They voted that they didn’t want Germany to be nice. They’re now getting exactly what they voted for. A huge chunk of the UK still wants to believe the EU is a happy-clappy Eurovision event full of quirky but lovely people who all just want to get along. It really isn’t; it’s always been a vehicle for German economic imperialism, to which the euro provided the engine. Example; Berlin’s treatment of Greece was been appallingly, dreadfully ruthless. Similarly Spain - still suffering from 25% youth unemployment. The current reality check - this relentless personal bludgeoning of Theresa May - is a helpful reminder of what Germany really is about. ---
**Author:** ![up\_the\_junction](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/u/f1d935/32.png) [@up\_the\_junction](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/up_the_junction)\ **Post date:** [May 3, 2017, 2:48pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-bad-is-brexit-going-to-be/782701/216 "2017-05-03T14:48:49Z")
> [@constanze](#): > > Even than, that all 27 EU countries have stated they stand together - Spain, Poland, Hungary - and will not Broker individual deals Shows a strong Determination. LOL. Yep, that was so convincing. It’s almost as if GCHQ doesn’t exist. ---
**Author:** ![Malden\_Capell](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/malden_capell/32/5274_2.png) [@Malden\_Capell](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Malden_Capell)\ **Post date:** [May 3, 2017, 3:37pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-bad-is-brexit-going-to-be/782701/217 "2017-05-03T15:37:34Z")
> [@up\_the\_junction](#): > > A huge chunk of the UK still wants to believe the EU is a happy-clappy Eurovision event full of quirky but lovely people who all just want to get along. False, another Leaver strawman. > [@](#): > > It really isn’t; it’s always been a vehicle for German economic imperialism, to which the euro provided the engine. Example; Berlin’s treatment of Greece was been appallingly, dreadfully ruthless. Similarly Spain - still suffering from 25% youth unemployment. > > The current reality check - this relentless personal bludgeoning of Theresa May - is a helpful reminder of what Germany really is about. Complete and utter horseshit. **Gyrate** - this is what I mean by UTJ’s Germanophobic conspiracy theories. ---
**Author:** ![Gyrate](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/gyrate/32/3588_2.png) [@Gyrate](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Gyrate)\ **Post date:** [May 3, 2017, 4:51pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-bad-is-brexit-going-to-be/782701/218 "2017-05-03T16:51:03Z")
> [@Malden\_Capell](#): > > **Gyrate** - this is what I mean by UTJ’s Germanophobic conspiracy theories. I don’t know what you mean. Don’t you realise that everything is someone else’s fault? Londoners, the middle class, Germany, “Project Fear”, immigrants - they’re all against the will of decent, ordinary, hardworking, ordinary, decent, ordinary British hardworking people. The case for Brexit is flawless, and the Prime Minister must not be questioned. All this is self-evident, and our insistence on him presenting an argument supported by actual evidence is proof that we hate all working class people living north of Watford. It’s so simple - all Leavers want is sovereignty, control of borders and Purity of Essence. Is that too much to ask?\* (On an unrelated note: why is this thread still in IMHO? Surely we’re well into GD territory. Might flag down a mod and ask.) - The irony is that, while this characterisation is deliberately hyperbolic, all these are related to views UTJ has actually expressed (except the POE thing, obvs). ---
**Author:** ![Stanislaus](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/stanislaus/32/3391_2.png) [@Stanislaus](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Stanislaus)\ **Post date:** [May 3, 2017, 5:00pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-bad-is-brexit-going-to-be/782701/219 "2017-05-03T17:00:22Z")
May has just given a speech stating that Brexit presents a grave threat to the prosperity of Britain and the economic security of its residents. She was very clear that things could go to ratshit very easily. Sent from my SM-J500FN using Tapatalk ---
**Author:** ![Really\_Not\_All\_That\_Bright](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/e8c25b/32.png) [@Really\_Not\_All\_That\_Bright](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Really_Not_All_That_Bright)\ **Post date:** [May 3, 2017, 5:18pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-bad-is-brexit-going-to-be/782701/220 "2017-05-03T17:18:33Z")
> [@Stanislaus](#): > > May has just given a speech stating that Brexit presents a grave threat to the prosperity of Britain and the economic security of its residents. She was very clear that things could go to ratshit very easily. > > Sent from my SM-J500FN using Tapatalk … the person who became Prime Minister for the specific purpose of shepherding Britain out of the EU thinks it’s a grave threat to Britain’s economy. Endorsements just don’t come more ringing than that. ---
**Author:** ![up\_the\_junction](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/u/f1d935/32.png) [@up\_the\_junction](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/up_the_junction)\ **Post date:** [May 3, 2017, 7:10pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-bad-is-brexit-going-to-be/782701/221 "2017-05-03T19:10:22Z")
This is what economic imperialism looks like; current Euro area unemployment (you may need to scroll down to find Germany). Notice the countries Germany has ‘helped’ remain in the euro system: > **[Unemployment rate in EU countries 2023 | Statista](https://www.statista.com/statistics/268830/unemployment-rate-in-eu-countries/)** > > The statistic reflects the seasonally adjusted unemployment rate in member states of the European Union in January 2023. [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-bad-is-brexit-going-to-be/782701.md?page=10) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-bad-is-brexit-going-to-be/782701.md?page=12)