# How bad is Brexit going to be? **URL:** \ **Category:** In My Humble Opinion\ **Created:** [March 21, 2017, 5:30pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-bad-is-brexit-going-to-be/782701 "2017-03-21T17:30:16Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 3
**Author:** ![Stanislaus](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/stanislaus/32/3391_2.png) [@Stanislaus](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Stanislaus)\ **Post date:** [March 22, 2017, 5:35pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-bad-is-brexit-going-to-be/782701/41 "2017-03-22T17:35:41Z")
> [@up\_the\_junction](#): > > As I say in the post immediately prior to this one. The London media has not generally distinguished between ‘the economy’ taking a hit - which is inevitable, and particular social groups. And the poor, dumb country folk who largely voted Leave have already taken hit after hit from uncontrolled immigration and the Tories class war/austerity policy. They are already utterly fucked on everything from housing and class sizes to wages and child care. > > Not so the young trendy youngish metro types or their professional parents and/or property owning classes who can subsidise healthcare, education and generally insulate themselves from the worst of the austerity. You shouldn’t buy in to this media narrative that all Leave voters are poor and live outside the big cities, and that all Remain voters are rich urbanites. 1 in 3 C2DE voters voted Remain; 41% of Londoners voted Leave. People are selling you this myth of a divided Britain but it’s more complicated than that and the reductive approach pushed by the media and political elite is neither accurate nor helpful. It’s probably the same people who sold you the myth that uncontrolled immigration had any kind of significant affect on public housing, public services and wages. Lack of investment in productive jobs keeps wages low; austerity fucked public services and public housing has been a disaster for the last 30 years. Blaming this on immigration has been a convenient scapegoat for the London media elite but if EU immigration had been stemmed in 2004 we’d still have poorly paid jobs, austerity and under-investment in housing. More importantly, if there are, to use your phrase “poor dumb country folk” who voted Leave in the belief that things couldn’t get worse, then they are in for a terrible shock. The economic effects of Brexit will be felt worst precisely in the areas with the biggest Leave votes - areas who, proportionally, trade more with the EU than London does. Hell, they trade more with the EU than they do with London. When the tariffs on agricultural produce kick in, and non-tariff barriers on manufacturing, and the supply chain gets fucked by customs delays and diversification of regulation, London will see 7% of its trade suffer. East Yorkshire and North Lincolnshire will see 13% at risk. That’s your jobs and wages and services right there. When factories close, and farms go under, and haulage firms lay off drivers, the notion that things can’t get any worse is going to ring pretty hollow. ---
**Author:** ![up\_the\_junction](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/u/f1d935/32.png) [@up\_the\_junction](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/up_the_junction)\ **Post date:** [March 22, 2017, 5:54pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-bad-is-brexit-going-to-be/782701/42 "2017-03-22T17:54:06Z")
> [@Stanislaus](#): > > It’s probably the same people who sold you the myth that uncontrolled immigration had any kind of significant affect on public housing, public services and wages. Quoted for the patronising dick ---
**Author:** ![k9bfriender](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/k9bfriender/32/3283_2.png) [@k9bfriender](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/k9bfriender)\ **Post date:** [March 22, 2017, 5:54pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-bad-is-brexit-going-to-be/782701/43 "2017-03-22T17:54:35Z")
> [@Quartz](#): > > A mate was in Cornwall pre-vote and he said that the Cornish were looking forward to getting their fisheries back and there was not a word about subsidies. > [@Quartz](#): > > And you decided the entirety of his character on that one piece of info. Ummm, no. Did I say anything about character? No, I did not. I said that he had a limited perspective. You were pointing out that people had different perspectives, I was pointing out that, while apparently he had once visited the city, he obviously did not pay any attention to anything that was happening there, if he had not heard a single person talk about something that was in the news, and a big deal in the town council, and was probably spoken of quite a bit between individuals. > [@](#): > > What a blitheringly stupid statement. Who said that he didn’t? You also seem to assume that he lives in Cornwall - he does not. Please, do continue to display your ignorance. I am not assuming that he lives in cornwall, I was assuming that your statement had any sort of relevance. Now, you are correct in that I assumed, based on your statement, that he had some level of knowledge whatsoever about anything to do with cornwall. Apparently, relying on your statement led me astray, and I made an incorrect assumption based on the information that you provided. According to your statement, during his visit, he did not hear a single person talk about an issue that many, if not most people were talking about and concerned about. You were the one that brought up your friend, and the fact that he hadn’t heard anything about this as if it were proof that no one was. So, I guess my point and or question to you is, what does this guy have to do with anything? You brought him up as if somehow his perspective was important, but you are just digging yourself into a whole of showing that anything that anything that you may relate about his statements has absolutely nothing to do with the thread. ---
**Author:** ![Quartz](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/quartz/32/267_2.png) [@Quartz](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Quartz)\ **Post date:** [March 22, 2017, 6:09pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-bad-is-brexit-going-to-be/782701/44 "2017-03-22T18:09:14Z")
> [@k9bfriender](#): > > Ummm, no. Did I say anything about character? No, I did not. Yes you did: > [@](#): > > I said that he had a limited perspective. That is a comment about character. ---
**Author:** ![k9bfriender](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/k9bfriender/32/3283_2.png) [@k9bfriender](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/k9bfriender)\ **Post date:** [March 22, 2017, 6:30pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-bad-is-brexit-going-to-be/782701/45 "2017-03-22T18:30:11Z")
> [@Quartz](#): > > Yes you did: > > That is a comment about character. Nope, that would be a comment about his observation skills. A comment that is based entirely upon your statement about what he observed. I actually don’t know, he may have observed far more, and he could have related his experience to you incorrectly, or you could be incorrectly relating his experience to us, but, to go into a city where I see news articles about people complaining about the loss of the subsidy, and where the town council is complaining about the loss of subsidy, and to say that he did not hear it mentioned, means that he does not have a very wide perspective, and in fact, his perspective is quite narrow. If he only talked to the people who were in fisheries, and did not talk to the other business owners, and the council, and other people living there, then his perspective=limited. ---
**Author:** ![Ryan\_Liam](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/ryan_liam/32/3965_2.png) [@Ryan\_Liam](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Ryan_Liam)\ **Post date:** [March 22, 2017, 6:47pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-bad-is-brexit-going-to-be/782701/46 "2017-03-22T18:47:45Z")
An interesting account overshadowed by unfortunate events today > [@](#): > > **The Guardian** > > The EU’s chief divorce negotiator, Michel Barnier, is calling for an “orderly” Brexit and insisting Britain must settle its EU debts and resolve uncertainty for European citizens before talks can begin on a trade deal. > > In only his second public statement on Brexit since he took up the position last autumn, Barnier will stress that the UK must “settle its accounts” as it leaves the EU, a slapdown of British claims that the UK could leave without paying a penny. > > “When a country leaves the union, there is no punishment,” he is expected to say. “There is no price to pay to leave, but we must settle the accounts. We will not ask the British to pay a single euro for something they have not agreed to as a member.” > **[EU's chief negotiator challenges Theresa May directly over Brexit talks](https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2017/mar/22/eus-chief-negotiator-sets-three-conditions-for-brexit-trade-talks-to-start)** > > Michel Barnier responds to PM’s claim she would be willing to walk away from talks by saying repercussions would be serious ---
**Author:** ![Amateur\_Barbarian](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/59ef9b/32.png) [@Amateur\_Barbarian](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Amateur_Barbarian)\ **Post date:** [March 22, 2017, 6:50pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-bad-is-brexit-going-to-be/782701/47 "2017-03-22T18:50:30Z")
> [@Quartz](#): > > That is a comment about character. As are your repeated “T’ain’t so!” replies that make no attempt to correct the error, IMHO. ---
**Author:** ![up\_the\_junction](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/u/f1d935/32.png) [@up\_the\_junction](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/up_the_junction)\ **Post date:** [March 22, 2017, 8:11pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-bad-is-brexit-going-to-be/782701/48 "2017-03-22T20:11:37Z")
> [@Ryan\_Liam](#): > > An interesting account overshadowed by unfortunate events today > > [EU's chief negotiator challenges Theresa May directly over Brexit talks | Brexit | The Guardian](https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2017/mar/22/eus-chief-negotiator-sets-three-conditions-for-brexit-trade-talks-to-start) You know this issue has already been parked, right? It’s agreed there will be a separate negotiation on payments for longer term commitments but it’s not being allowed to get in the way of the main negotiation. No one has a clue how much, or on what kind of schedule. ---
**Author:** ![bobot](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/bobot/32/21622_2.png) [@bobot](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/bobot)\ **Post date:** [March 22, 2017, 8:30pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-bad-is-brexit-going-to-be/782701/49 "2017-03-22T20:30:15Z")
> [@Ryan\_Liam](#): > > I’m deliberating as to whether I should jump ship and emigrate. > … If you’re thinking about coming to the United States, I would like to welcome you. However, you should be advised that we have just elected Donald Freeking Trump to be our President. No, I’m not joking. Given this, I would advise that you roll the dice and stick it out where you are now. Just for a while, until we can figure out what’s going on. ---
**Author:** ![Charlie\_Tan](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/charlie_tan/32/12582_2.png) [@Charlie\_Tan](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Charlie_Tan)\ **Post date:** [March 22, 2017, 9:18pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-bad-is-brexit-going-to-be/782701/50 "2017-03-22T21:18:13Z")
> [@up\_the\_junction](#): > > uncontrolled immigration Can you please explain what you mean? What _is_ ‘uncontrolled immigration’ in reality? ---
**Author:** ![Princhester](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/p/3e96dc/32.png) [@Princhester](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Princhester)\ **Post date:** [March 22, 2017, 9:25pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-bad-is-brexit-going-to-be/782701/51 "2017-03-22T21:25:30Z")
> [@Quartz](#): > > A mate was in Cornwall pre-vote and he said that the Cornish were looking forward to getting their fisheries back and there was not a word about subsidies. In what way are they going to get their fisheries back? Not a rhetorical question. I don’t know about this subject. > [@up\_the\_junction](#): > > Broadly, people who voted Leave did so for a whole bunch of reasons that people who voted Remain are not affected by, either at all or to anything like the same extent. Things like public housing, class sizes, services generally but NHS/GP in particular, and working class/unskilled/semi-skilled wages - all deeply affected by uncontrolled immigration. > > If the UK takes an economic hit because of Brexit, it will not be felt by people already significantly affected by uncontrolled immigration and the consequences of the financial collapse in 07-08 (that has seen a class was on working people). I don’t doubt that people feel this way. People who don’t think about their own cognitive biases tend to form incorrect conclusions. Those who study economics rationally pretty much invariably form the view that immigration leads to economic improvement, even for those who think “they took our jobs”. > [@](#): > > In addition, specifically in relation to the EU, there are great concerns about transparency, fraud, waste, lack of democracy or even consultation on huge changes, and a relentless drive to further integration without reference to the voters. > > Lastly, and don’t underestimate this, an awful lot of people are now concerned for their culture/ID/way of life. They’re not saying it’s threatened immediately, but that they want control taken back from, effectively Germany. Again I don’t doubt people feel this way, but it’s the “thanks Obama” thing. People don’t like something that happens, and they don’t like Obama, so they assume causation, even where none exists. Is there bureaucratic wastage in the EU? Undoubtedly. Do the UK regions receive more or less funding as a consequence of the EU after taking into account bureaucratic wastage vs subsidies? How much bureaucratic wastage is there going to be in dealing at arms length with Europe once the UK is not in the tent? Again, I don’t doubt people are concerned for their culture. But IME the big influences on UK culture range far more widely than just the EU. Indeed, to my observation if you want to locate the source of the largest cultural changes in the UK, the last place you’d look would be Germany or France etc. ---
**Author:** ![up\_the\_junction](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/u/f1d935/32.png) [@up\_the\_junction](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/up_the_junction)\ **Post date:** [March 22, 2017, 9:28pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-bad-is-brexit-going-to-be/782701/52 "2017-03-22T21:28:16Z")
> [@Charlie\_Tan](#): > > Can you please explain what you mean? What _is_ ‘uncontrolled immigration’ in reality? It’s one of the four fundamental principles of the EU, also called ‘freedom of movement’ i.e. anyone living in any of the 28 countries can live and work wherever they want within the 28 countries. Thus the UK saw 1m Poles arrive - some left, but most stayed, and in more recent years very large numbers of Romanians and Bulgarians. The last Census suggested around 3.5 million (6.5% of the UK population) was born in eastern Europe. Conversely, several hundred thousand Brits have semi/retired to France and Spain. > **[Freedom of movement for workers in the European Union](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Freedom_of_movement_for_workers_in_the_European_Union)** > > The freedom of movement for workers is a policy chapter of the acquis communautaire of the European Union. The free movement of workers means that nationals of any member state of the European Union can take up an employment in another member state on the same conditions as the nationals of that particular member state. In particular, no discrimination based on nationality is allowed. It is part of the free movement of persons and one of the four economic freedoms: free movement of goods, servic... ---
**Author:** ![up\_the\_junction](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/u/f1d935/32.png) [@up\_the\_junction](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/up_the_junction)\ **Post date:** [March 22, 2017, 9:42pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-bad-is-brexit-going-to-be/782701/53 "2017-03-22T21:42:03Z")
> [@Princhester](#): > > I don’t doubt that people feel this way. People who don’t think about their own cognitive biases tend to form incorrect conclusions. Those who study economics rationally pretty much invariably form the view that immigration leads to economic improvement, even for those who think “they took our jobs”. Yep, hasn’t that been quite the mantra. Working class people have heard an awful lot from peole who know what’s best for them. This from Oxford confirms the point that working class wages suffer when immigration increases: > **[The Labour Market Effects of Immigration - Migration Observatory](https://migrationobservatory.ox.ac.uk/resources/briefings/the-labour-market-effects-of-immigration/)** > > This briefing discusses the effects of immigration on the labour market in the UK, focusing on wages and employment. ---
**Author:** ![PastTense](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/pasttense/32/14550_2.png) [@PastTense](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/PastTense)\ **Post date:** [March 22, 2017, 9:48pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-bad-is-brexit-going-to-be/782701/54 "2017-03-22T21:48:17Z")
> [@up\_the\_junction](#): > > You know this issue has already been parked, right? It’s agreed there will be a separate negotiation on payments for longer term commitments but it’s not being allowed to get in the way of the main negotiation. > > No one has a clue how much, or on what kind of schedule. Cites please? Every article I have read said the EU is insisting that the agreement to leave (including the amount of payment due) must be settled before opening up trade negotiations. ---
**Author:** ![Grim\_Render](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/g/a87d85/32.png) [@Grim\_Render](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Grim_Render)\ **Post date:** [March 22, 2017, 9:49pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-bad-is-brexit-going-to-be/782701/55 "2017-03-22T21:49:54Z")
> [@up\_the\_junction](#): > > If the UK takes an economic hit because of Brexit, it will not be felt by people already significantly affected by uncontrolled immigration and the consequences of the financial collapse in 07-08 (that has seen a class was on working people). I really do believe that this is not a very realistic notion of how things work. I don’t think you have fully grasped how bad a “worst-case” scenario can get. Or which class has the least ability to insulate itself from the consequences, and the smallest resource-base. But no matter if it is a worst-case scenario or not, whatever bad consequences there are will be pushed away by every group and layer of society, and will end up landing with the people with the least ability to push. ---
**Author:** ![up\_the\_junction](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/u/f1d935/32.png) [@up\_the\_junction](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/up_the_junction)\ **Post date:** [March 22, 2017, 10:03pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-bad-is-brexit-going-to-be/782701/56 "2017-03-22T22:03:47Z")
> [@PastTense](#): > > Cites please? Every article I have read said the EU is insisting that the agreement to leave (including the amount of payment due) must be settled before opening up trade negotiations. Sometimes Google fail me. All I can say is it separates off quite easily and that has been decided - I read it and then saw it on Newsnight a couple of times this past week or so. What I would add is that the 27 need access to London, which is a significant bargaining chip: > [@](#): > > The EU’s chief negotiator in the Brexit talks has shown the first signs of backing away from his hardline, no-compromise approach after admitting he wants a deal with Britain that will guarantee the other 27 member states continued easy access to the City. > > Michel Barnier wants a “special” relationship with the City of London after Britain has left the bloc, according to unpublished minutes seen by the Guardian that hint at unease about the costs of Brexit on continental Europe. > **[EU negotiator wants 'special' deal over access to City post-Brexit](https://www.theguardian.com/business/2017/jan/13/eu-negotiator-wants-special-deal-over-access-to-city-post-brexit)** > > Exclusive: minutes of Michel Barnier’s meeting with senior MEPs reveal he wants 27 member states to have easy access to London’s financial institutions ---
**Author:** ![Gyrate](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/gyrate/32/3588_2.png) [@Gyrate](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Gyrate)\ **Post date:** [March 23, 2017, 10:37am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-bad-is-brexit-going-to-be/782701/57 "2017-03-23T10:37:07Z")
> [@Quartz](#): > > As I said, different people have different perspectives. It’s worth listening to more than one perspective. Or do you prefer living in an echo chamber? I prefer living in a world where irrelevant anecdotes aren’t considered substantive rebuttals. Your comment about your mate was at best tangential to my original point that Cornwall, where the local government **did** demand that the UK government cover any lost EU subsidies (something, incidentally, the Leave campaign promised would happen), was going to suffer because the Leave campaign lied and because EU subsidies for the region were substantial. You insisted that the fact that your friend hadn’t heard anyone discussing subsidies was germane to the point. I provided evidence to support my argument. And then, when I failed to rise to your bait, you got all snippy about it. I’m curious as to how this constitutes “living in an echo chamber”. > [@up\_the\_junction](#): > > As I say in the post immediately prior to this one. The London media has not generally distinguished between ‘the economy’ taking a hit - which is inevitable, and particular social groups. And the poor, dumb country folk who largely voted Leave have already taken hit after hit from uncontrolled immigration and the Tories class war/austerity policy. They are already utterly fucked on everything from housing and class sizes to wages and child care. > > Not so the young trendy youngish metro types or their professional parents and/or property owning classes who can subsidise healthcare, education and generally insulate themselves from the worst of the austerity. As a Londoner I assure you that “young trendy youngish metro types or their professional parents and/or property owning classes” is a stereotype which does not remotely represent the majority of urban residents. It certainly doesn’t resemble me at all. In fact I’m probably disadvantaged more by the people who do roughly fall into that group, since they are significantly responsible for driving up property prices in London. > [@up\_the\_junction](#): > > Broadly, people who voted Leave did so for a whole bunch of reasons that people who voted Remain are not affected by, either at all or to anything like the same extent. Things like public housing, class sizes, services generally but NHS/GP in particular, and working class/unskilled/semi-skilled wages - all deeply affected by uncontrolled immigration. And yet the evidence suggests that the fewer immigrants an area has, the more likely it was to have voted Leave. It’s almost as if the people who get their information about immigrants from sources such as UKIP and the Daily Mail are more likely to be virulently anti-immigrant than people who actually live and work with immigrants. Fancy that. Incidentally, the Oxford study you cite is a tad more nuanced than you make it out to be: > [@](#): > > The impacts of immigration on the labour market critically depend on the skills of migrants, the skills of existing workers, and the characteristics of the host economy. They also differ between the short and long run when the economy and labour demand can adjust to the increase in labour supply. The immediate short run effects of immigration on the wages and employment of existing workers depend particularly on the extent to which migrants have skills that are substitutes or complements to those of existing workers (e.g. Borjas 1995). If the skills of migrants and existing workers are substitutes, immigration can be expected to increase competition in the labour market and drive down wages in the short run. The closer the substitute, the greater the adverse wage effects will be. Whether and to what extent declining wages increase unemployment or inactivity among existing workers depends on their willingness to accept the new lower wages. If, on the other hand, the skills of migrants are complementary to those of existing workers, all workers experience increased productivity which can be expected to lead to a rise in the wages of existing workers. > > In addition to expanding labour supply, immigration can also increase the demand for labour. Migrants expand consumer demand for goods and services. In the medium to long run, immigration can be expected to lead to more investment. Both effects result in greater demand for labour and thus increased wages and employment in the economy. In other words, the number of jobs in an economy is not fixed (the “lump of labour fallacy”). Immigration can increase competition for existing jobs but it can also create new jobs. The extent to which investment and labour demand respond to immigration depends on the characteristics of the economy. During an economic downturn labour demand may respond more slowly than during times of economic growth. So yes, immigration will be more likely to have a negative impact on the unskilled labour market (specifically the bottom 1-5% of wage earners) during economic slowdowns - but it can also increase employment overall, and even in economic slowdowns can result in increased wages for most workers. Tory policy has had a far bigger negative impact on the lowest wage earners than that, and on a far bigger proportion of the working populace. Furthermore, those are the people most likely to benefit from the workers rights they currently enjoy courtesy of those EU regulations they decry. Yet the aforementioned sources rarely seem to mention this, preferring to stir up anti-immigrant sentiment, often based on lies. Fancy that too. ---
**Author:** ![Princhester](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/p/3e96dc/32.png) [@Princhester](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Princhester)\ **Post date:** [March 23, 2017, 11:50am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-bad-is-brexit-going-to-be/782701/58 "2017-03-23T11:50:52Z")
> [@up\_the\_junction](#): > > Yep, hasn’t that been quite the mantra. > > Working class people have heard an awful lot from peole who know what’s best for them. I understand that some people don’t think very well and that pretty much nobody likes being told what’s best for them. But when you’re wrong, you’re wrong. Not to mention that working class people tend to hear an awful lot from smart self interested wealthy powerful people who have no qualms about achieving their own ends by playing working class people like a fiddle. \*\*Gyrate \*\*has answered the rest. ---
**Author:** ![Charlie\_Tan](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/charlie_tan/32/12582_2.png) [@Charlie\_Tan](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Charlie_Tan)\ **Post date:** [March 23, 2017, 1:34pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-bad-is-brexit-going-to-be/782701/59 "2017-03-23T13:34:12Z")
> [@up\_the\_junction](#): > > The last Census suggested around 3.5 million (6.5% of the UK population) was born in eastern Europe. Impossible. The latest census (2011) didn’t suggest anything, it totalled the number of residents in the UK with a passport from another EU country, i.e. all of them: 2,887,955 The ONS made an estimate in 2015 that there are around 300k people from Romania and Bulgaria residing in the UK. But do continue to believe that the ‘mass immigration’ from Eastern Europe is the reason working class blokes can’t get a fair shake. We’ll see if they will gain employment once the dust settles. ---
**Author:** ![up\_the\_junction](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/u/f1d935/32.png) [@up\_the\_junction](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/up_the_junction)\ **Post date:** [March 23, 2017, 3:53pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-bad-is-brexit-going-to-be/782701/60 "2017-03-23T15:53:42Z")
> [@Charlie\_Tan](#): > > Impossible. > The latest census (2011) didn’t suggest anything, it totalled the number of residents in the UK with a passport from another EU country, i.e. all of them: 2,887,955 A cite would be helpful because the ONS does put it at 3.5 million though, as per your number, this is from the 27: > **[EU Migration to and from the UK - Migration Observatory](https://migrationobservatory.ox.ac.uk/resources/briefings/eu-migration-to-and-from-the-uk/)** > > This briefing provides an overview of EU migration to and from the UK, including immigration and emigration of EU migrants, registrations for a National Insurance number (NINos), employment, and other key statistics. Though you only asked what was meant by ‘uncontrolled immigration’ so I’m glad to have helped you with that. [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-bad-is-brexit-going-to-be/782701.md?page=2) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-bad-is-brexit-going-to-be/782701.md?page=4)