# How bad is Brexit going to be? **URL:** \ **Category:** In My Humble Opinion\ **Created:** [March 21, 2017, 5:30pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-bad-is-brexit-going-to-be/782701 "2017-03-21T17:30:16Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 9
**Author:** ![septimus](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/septimus/32/410_2.png) [@septimus](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/septimus)\ **Post date:** [May 1, 2017, 6:01pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-bad-is-brexit-going-to-be/782701/162 "2017-05-01T18:01:33Z")
> [@Princhester](#): > > I read a piece about Ebbw Vale, the voting district of the UK that receives the most EU money of any voting district, and has the lowest proportion of immigrants, but voted overwhelmingly for Brexit. The journalist did a straw poll and found that the biggest two reasons for voting for Brexit were to stem the outflow of money and the inflow of migrants… There are many similarities between the vote on Brexit and the vote on Trumpjoke. The main argument for Trumpjoke was that deporting illegal aliens would improve American employment, but 72% of the states with a _below-average_ portion of illegal immigrants voted for Trumpjoke. Only 31% of the above-average states did. ---
**Author:** ![Gyrate](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/gyrate/32/3588_2.png) [@Gyrate](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Gyrate)\ **Post date:** [May 2, 2017, 9:50am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-bad-is-brexit-going-to-be/782701/163 "2017-05-02T09:50:25Z")
> [@up\_the\_junction](#): > > So yet another exemplar of how the EU values the democratic integrity of member states - leaders in Greece, Ireland, Spain, Portugal, Italy, etc will not be wryly nodding. > > They make the Mafia look like Cliff Richard. I thought you’d left? Look, this isn’t difficult to understand. The EU _cannot_ give the UK an exit on favourable terms because that would encourage other states within the EU to leave. Do you understand? It’s not because Juncker is a big meanie who sneaks down your chimney at Christmas and steals the roast beast from your fridge; it’s a very basic political reality. Furthermore, it’s a reality that was well-understood even before the referendum, even by those people who were happily telling you “We’re going to get the bestest trade deal EVAR from the EU after we leave”, because lying to you got you to vote Leave like they wanted. ---
**Author:** ![up\_the\_junction](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/u/f1d935/32.png) [@up\_the\_junction](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/up_the_junction)\ **Post date:** [May 2, 2017, 10:30am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-bad-is-brexit-going-to-be/782701/164 "2017-05-02T10:30:49Z")
> [@Gyrate](#): > > I thought you’d left? > > Look, this isn’t difficult to understand. The EU _cannot_ give the UK an exit on favourable terms because that would encourage other states within the EU to leave. Do you understand? It’s not because Juncker is a big meanie who sneaks down your chimney at Christmas and steals the roast beast from your fridge; it’s a very basic political reality. > > Furthermore, it’s a reality that was well-understood even before the referendum, even by those people who were happily telling you “We’re going to get the bestest trade deal EVAR from the EU after we leave”, because lying to you got you to vote Leave like they wanted. I left the thread. 1. Contrast shouty Junckers with Labour’s constructive approach. 2. Oh yeah, pre-vote promises. Like Project Fear. They’re always good to go You sound more a more like a middle class Tory with every post I see, ---
**Author:** ![Quartz](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/quartz/32/267_2.png) [@Quartz](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Quartz)\ **Post date:** [May 2, 2017, 10:35am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-bad-is-brexit-going-to-be/782701/165 "2017-05-02T10:35:51Z")
> [@Gyrate](#): > > Look, this isn’t difficult to understand. The EU _cannot_ give the UK an exit on favourable terms because that would encourage other states within the EU to leave. Either there will be no deal or there will be a deal that is acceptable to both sides. Both sides will likely have to give way on some points. ---
**Author:** ![Malden\_Capell](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/malden_capell/32/5274_2.png) [@Malden\_Capell](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Malden_Capell)\ **Post date:** [May 2, 2017, 10:43am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-bad-is-brexit-going-to-be/782701/166 "2017-05-02T10:43:20Z")
> [@up\_the\_junction](#): > > I left the thread. > > 1. Contrast shouty Junckers with Labour’s constructive approach. > 2. Oh yeah, pre-vote promises. Like Project Fear. They’re always good to go > > You sound more a more like a middle class Tory with every post I see, As I’ve said before UTJ you claim ‘Project Fear’ without any evidence of how the pro-Brexit side’s anything but ‘Project Fantasy’. As an aside - what’s your take on climate change? ---
**Author:** ![Malden\_Capell](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/malden_capell/32/5274_2.png) [@Malden\_Capell](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Malden_Capell)\ **Post date:** [May 2, 2017, 10:44am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-bad-is-brexit-going-to-be/782701/167 "2017-05-02T10:44:23Z")
> [@Quartz](#): > > Either there will be no deal or there will be a deal that is acceptable to both sides. Both sides will likely have to give way on some points. What would you deem acceptable compromises by the UK? ---
**Author:** ![Grim\_Render](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/g/a87d85/32.png) [@Grim\_Render](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Grim_Render)\ **Post date:** [May 2, 2017, 10:56am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-bad-is-brexit-going-to-be/782701/168 "2017-05-02T10:56:08Z")
> [@up\_the\_junction](#): > > I left the thread. > > 1. Contrast shouty Junckers with Labour’s constructive approach. > 2. Oh yeah, pre-vote promises. Like Project Fear. They’re always good to go > > You sound more a more like a middle class Tory with every post I see, To put it a different way, the UK has so far had a bespoke membership deal. As a non-member it cannot have a deal as good as members. The question is how much worse the deal is going to be, and if it can be compensated for through legislative freedoms. So far I got to say that it does not seem promising. ---
**Author:** ![Malden\_Capell](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/malden_capell/32/5274_2.png) [@Malden\_Capell](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Malden_Capell)\ **Post date:** [May 2, 2017, 10:57am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-bad-is-brexit-going-to-be/782701/169 "2017-05-02T10:57:53Z")
> [@Grim\_Render](#): > > To put it a different way, the UK has so far had a bespoke membership deal. As a non-member it cannot have a deal as good as members. The question is how much worse the deal is going to be, and if it can be compensated for through legislative freedoms. So far I got to say that it does not seem promising. Prepare to be labelled a pessimistic doom-monger. ---
**Author:** ![Quartz](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/quartz/32/267_2.png) [@Quartz](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Quartz)\ **Post date:** [May 2, 2017, 11:16am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-bad-is-brexit-going-to-be/782701/170 "2017-05-02T11:16:06Z")
> [@Malden\_Capell](#): > > What would you deem acceptable compromises by the UK? The obvious one is that the UK will allow EU citizens already resident in the UK to remain in the UK in return for UK citizens resident in the EU to remain in the EU. Beyond that, I don’t know. But the UK does have the ability to walk away. There are plenty of countries - principally the old British Empire - waiting to do business. ---
**Author:** ![Stanislaus](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/stanislaus/32/3391_2.png) [@Stanislaus](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Stanislaus)\ **Post date:** [May 2, 2017, 11:30am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-bad-is-brexit-going-to-be/782701/171 "2017-05-02T11:30:57Z")
There’s been a really good series of articles in the FT by David Allen Green (an EU sceptic) about how the UK and EU have approached the process of Brexit. What becomes very clear as he goes through the public papers and speeches in which each side has set out its position is that the EU is on top of the process, understands what the big issues are and has constructed an approach which will deal with these in consistent and orderly fashion, while the UK… isn’t, doesn’t and hasn’t. You can find them [here](https://www.ft.com/content/74e5fe4b-b1e4-3f9c-9e9b-73316872e144://), [here](https://www.ft.com/content/e8f67ffb-0092-3833-a792-bd00e049b454)and [here](http://blogs.ft.com/david-allen-green/2017/04/27/brexit-by-timetable-the-evolution-of-the-eus-position-part-3/)(there’s a registration wall). From the latest, discussing the EU’s draft negotiation guidelines: > [@](#): > > Paragraphs 8 to 16 repay close attention — they give details of what is meant by an “orderly” withdrawal. These include a “single financial settlement” but also the rights of citizens, contracts that have been entered into, the Irish border, UK bases in Cyprus, what happens to international agreements, the smooth relocation of UK-based EU agencies, and the continued jurisdiction of the Court of Justice of the European Union over certain matters. None of these are trivial points: no serious person could maintain that they do not need an agreement. From the translation of the FAZ article in Forbes: > [@](#): > > EU side were astonished at May’s suggestion that EU/UK expats issue could be sorted at EU Council meeting at the end of June. Juncker objected to this timetable as way too optimistic given complexities, eg on rights to health care…May… seemed to the EU side not to have been fully briefed. Those articles are well worth reading in full. The picture they paint isn’t of mafia-like extortion, but just good negotiation: work out what you want, make a plan for getting it, and stick to the plan. You might call it strong and stable leadership. ---
**Author:** ![up\_the\_junction](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/u/f1d935/32.png) [@up\_the\_junction](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/up_the_junction)\ **Post date:** [May 2, 2017, 12:10pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-bad-is-brexit-going-to-be/782701/172 "2017-05-02T12:10:38Z")
> [@Grim\_Render](#): > > To put it a different way, the UK has so far had a bespoke membership deal. As a non-member it cannot have a deal as good as members. The question is how much worse the deal is going to be, and if it can be compensated for through legislative freedoms. So far I got to say that it does not seem promising. Too simple. Different member states want different concessions made to the UK because of their circs, and because opportunity begs. Spain needs the trade and the 900,000 residents, a bunch need the UK influence on liberalisation, the Scandies need closer military cooperation, Germany has a 50 billion euro surplus to preserve which translates into 100,000s of jobs, etc, etc. Really, how easy is it to negotiate on behalf of 28 different sets of interests? Also, as a partner, how much do the EU \*collective of countries \*want easy access to irreplaceable London financing expertise and sourcing, how much does the EU value Intel cooperation [on a scale that essentially preserved the French electio](http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2017/04/18/french-intelligence-foils-imminent-terror-attack-five-days-presidential/), how much do they rely on UK diplomatic influence in the anglo-sphere - and around the world, etc. Honestly, it’s like the UK should take a begging bowl and ask Mr Juncker and Mrs Merkel to be merciful. FFS, get a grip. ---
**Author:** ![up\_the\_junction](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/u/f1d935/32.png) [@up\_the\_junction](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/up_the_junction)\ **Post date:** [May 2, 2017, 12:13pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-bad-is-brexit-going-to-be/782701/173 "2017-05-02T12:13:43Z")
> [@Stanislaus](#): > > There’s been a really good series of articles in the FT by David Allen Green (an EU sceptic) about how the UK and EU have approached the process of Brexit. What becomes very clear as he goes through the public papers and speeches in which each side has set out its position is that the EU is on top of the process, understands what the big issues are and has constructed an approach which will deal with these in consistent and orderly fashion, while the UK… isn’t, doesn’t and hasn’t. > > You can find them [here](https://www.ft.com/content/74e5fe4b-b1e4-3f9c-9e9b-73316872e144://), [here](https://www.ft.com/content/e8f67ffb-0092-3833-a792-bd00e049b454)and [here](http://blogs.ft.com/david-allen-green/2017/04/27/brexit-by-timetable-the-evolution-of-the-eus-position-part-3/)(there’s a registration wall). I look forward to reading those. Thank you. Fwiw, I still believe Brexit is a negotiating tool and not an end position. The EU has to be reformed, on that most are agreed. If Brexit engineers enough change, esp. on freedom of movement, then there is scope for everything, ---
**Author:** ![Stanislaus](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/stanislaus/32/3391_2.png) [@Stanislaus](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Stanislaus)\ **Post date:** [May 2, 2017, 1:08pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-bad-is-brexit-going-to-be/782701/174 "2017-05-02T13:08:12Z")
> [@up\_the\_junction](#): > > I look forward to reading those. Thank you …and [just published](https://www.ft.com/content/7c008997-e2a9-360d-89a3-1646dcbdae0f), a post on why the status of EU and UK citizens will require more than one high level meeting, as apparently suggested by May: > [@](#): > > The EU general position is set out in the European Council guidelines formally adopted last week: > > > [@](#): > > > > “The right for every EU citizen, and of his or her family members, to live, to work or to study in any EU Member State is a fundamental aspect of the European Union. > > Along with other rights provided under EU law, it has shaped the lives and choices of millions of people. > > > > “Agreeing reciprocal guarantees to safeguard the status and rights derived from EU law at the date of withdrawal of EU and UK citizens, and their families, affected by the United Kingdom’s withdrawal from the Union will be the first priority for the negotiations. > > > > “Such guarantees must be effective, enforceable, non-discriminatory and comprehensive, including the right to acquire permanent residence after a continuous period of five years of legal residence. > > > > “Citizens should be able to exercise their rights through smooth and simple administrative procedures.” > > These guidelines are, in effect, a mandate for the EU commission negotiating team, TF50. It is not open to TF50 to agree anything outside these guidelines, so the content should be given close attention. > > The first thing to note is the express reference to families of the citizens. > The second is that to “status and rights” (in the plural). > The third is the mention of guarantees (again, in the plural) which in a legal(istic) context means something more than mere entitlement. > The fourth is the insistence that these guarantees are to “effective, enforceable, non-discriminatory and comprehensive”. > And the fifth is the mention of administration, which is a visible nod to the the bureaucratic problems the UK suffers in this area. > Unless the exit agreement covers these points, TF50 cannot agree to it. And the scope of the guarantees and their effective enforcement, especially on a reciprocal basis, is plainly something that must be done with an agreement. > [@](#): > > The Commission’s position is further developed in an informal negotiating paper published by the FT. This does not have the binding power of the formal guidelines but it shows how TF50 will seek to convert the guidelines into an agreement. And these steers are detailed. The introduction of the paper says: > > > [@](#): > > > > “[T]he draft negotiating directives will firstly address the issue of the citizens’ rights. > > > > “Safeguarding the status and rights of the EU27 citizens and their families in the United Kingdom and of the citizens of the United Kingdom and their families in the EU27 Member States is the first priority for the negotiations because of the number of people directly affected and of the gravity of the consequences of the withdrawal for them. > > > > “The withdrawal agreement should provide the necessary comprehensive, effective, enforceable and non-discriminatory guarantees for those citizens’ rights.” > > Again the mention of families, and of “comprehensive, effective, enforceable and non-discriminatory guarantees” in the plural. The main body of the paper continues (with emphasis and links added) [NB these have been stripped out by C&P - you’ll have to go via the FT if you’re desperate to read the legislation: > > > [@](#): > > > > “The Agreement should safeguard the status and rights derived from Union law at the withdrawal date, including those the enjoyment of which will intervene at a later date (e.g. rights related to old age pensions) both for EU27 citizens residing (or having resided) and/or working (or having worked) in the United Kingdom and for United Kingdom citizens residing (or having resided) and/or working (or having worked) in one of the Member States of the EU27. > > > > “Guarantees to that effect in the Agreement should be reciprocal, and should be based on the principle of equal treatment amongst EU27 citizens and equal treatment of EU27 citizens as compared to United Kingdom citizens, as set out in the relevant Union acquis. > > Those rights should be protected as directly enforceable vested rights for the life time of those concerned. > > > > “The Agreement should cover at least the following elements: > > Definition of the persons to be covered: the personal scope should be the same as that of Directive 2004/38 (both economically active, i.e. workers and self-employed, and inactive persons, who have resided in the UK or EU27 before the withdrawal date, and their family members who accompany or join them at any point in time before/after the withdrawal date). > > In addition, the personal scope should include persons covered by Regulation 883/2004. > > Definition of the rights to be protected: this definition should include at least the following rights: > > (i) the residence rights derived from Articles 21, 45 and 49 of the Treaty on the Functioning of the European Union and set out in Directive 2004/38 (same material scope, covering inter alia the right of permanent residence after a continuous period of five years of legal residence) and the rules relating to those rights; any document to be issued in relation to the residence rights (for example, registration certificates, residence cards or certifying documents) should have a declaratory nature and be issued under a simple and swift procedure either free of charge or for a charge not exceeding that imposed on nationals for the issuing of similar documents. > > (ii) the rights and obligations set out in Regulation 883/2004 on the coordination of social security systems and in Regulation 987/2009 implementing Regulation 883/2004 (including future amendments of both Regulations) covering inter alia, rights to aggregation, export of benefits, and principle of single applicable law; > > (iii) the rights set out in Regulation 492/2011 on freedom of movement for workers within the Union (e.g. access to the labour market, to pursue an activity, social and tax advantages, training, housing, collective rights); > > (iv) the right to take up and pursue self-employment derived from Article 49 of the Treaty on the Functioning of the European Union. > > > > “For reasons of legal certainty, the Agreement should ensure, in the United Kingdom and in the EU27, the continued recognition of diplomas, certificates and other evidence of formal qualification obtained in any of the Union Member States before the withdrawal date, in accordance with Union law rules applicable before that date. It should also provide for arrangements relating to procedures for recognition which are ongoing on the withdrawal date. > > This document demonstrates how wide-ranging and complicated the relevant part of the agreement needs to be. (Indeed, click on to any of the links to the legislation.) The intention of the commission is to ensure that the rights are vested for life and cover entitlements of those who have resided or worked in other member states, not just those residing there as of the date of Brexit. In effect, TF50 is to seek the entrenchment of employment and movement rights. I’ve quoted at some length from a very lengty article to emphasise its main point - that there’s a lot of detail to cover here, and someone in the UK is going to have to master it. Ideally, that will be someone who can give Theresa May an honest brief to which she will pay close attention. NB - The author goes on to point out that just because this is the EU’s position does not mean it is valid - but this is the starting point for negotiations, and the above lays out the complexity that a British counter-offer will have to address. The obvious question of what entity will be responsible for adjudicating on whether both sides of the deal are honouring their commitments to each other’s citizens is, all by itself, something that will take quite a bit of detailed thrashing out, one would imagine. ---
**Author:** ![Gyrate](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/gyrate/32/3588_2.png) [@Gyrate](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Gyrate)\ **Post date:** [May 2, 2017, 1:20pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-bad-is-brexit-going-to-be/782701/175 "2017-05-02T13:20:54Z")
> [@up\_the\_junction](#): > > I left the thread. > > 1. Contrast shouty Junckers with Labour’s constructive approach. > 2. Oh yeah, pre-vote promises. Like Project Fear. They’re always good to go > > You sound more a more like a middle class Tory with every post I see, Another response empty of substance and filled with ad hominems. I’ll take your apparent inability to provide an actual rebuttal to points made to be a concession on the issue. To others: I agree that the EU will need to - and indeed be willing to - compromise on certain points to facilitate the process and to meet the interests of some individual and influential members (particularly Germany). That does not mean that the end position will be a better one than the UK currently has and, as noted, there are very strong motivations for the EU to ensure that it is not. Please also note that even Germany will not sacrifice their long-term economic interest in a stable EU for a short-term trading benefit with the UK. ---
**Author:** ![Malden\_Capell](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/malden_capell/32/5274_2.png) [@Malden\_Capell](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Malden_Capell)\ **Post date:** [May 2, 2017, 1:30pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-bad-is-brexit-going-to-be/782701/176 "2017-05-02T13:30:55Z")
> [@Quartz](#): > > But the UK does have the ability to walk away. There are plenty of countries - principally the old British Empire - waiting to do business. Sure, but without trade agreements in place, that will be difficult. And zero evidence those trade deals will be better than what we already have. Given that part of the UK’s attraction is (was) being a common law State within the EU, we’ll need to think of another way to sell UK Plc, and Brexiters aren’t coming up with ideas. ---
**Author:** ![Malden\_Capell](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/malden_capell/32/5274_2.png) [@Malden\_Capell](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Malden_Capell)\ **Post date:** [May 2, 2017, 1:35pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-bad-is-brexit-going-to-be/782701/177 "2017-05-02T13:35:05Z")
> [@up\_the\_junction](#): > > Too simple. Different member states want different concessions made to the UK because of their circs, and because opportunity begs. Spain needs the trade and the 900,000 residents, a bunch need the UK influence on liberalisation, the Scandies need closer military cooperation, Germany has a 50 billion euro surplus to preserve which translates into 100,000s of jobs, etc, etc. > > Really, how easy is it to negotiate on behalf of 28 different sets of interests? The EU has plenty of experience in this field though decades of negotiating trade deals with foreign countries. EU countries also firmly rebuffed Trump recently in trying to bypass the EU Commission on trade. Hang on, UTJ - are you now saying the EU isn’t a German racket? > [@](#): > > Also, as a partner, how much do the EU \*collective of countries \*want easy access to irreplaceable London financing expertise and sourcing, how much does the EU value Intel cooperation [on a scale that essentially preserved the French electio](http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2017/04/18/french-intelligence-foils-imminent-terror-attack-five-days-presidential/), how much do they rely on UK diplomatic influence in the anglo-sphere - and around the world, etc. By the same way that Brexiter propose to handle the irreplaceable Single Market, I suppose - replace it. > [@](#): > > Honestly, it’s like the UK should take a begging bowl and ask Mr Juncker and Mrs Merkel to be merciful. FFS, get a grip. I’ll start feeling confident once I see evidence that deserves my confidence. Until then you’re just wishful thinking to epic proportions. ---
**Author:** ![constanze](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/c/f9ae1b/32.png) [@constanze](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/constanze)\ **Post date:** [May 2, 2017, 3:19pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-bad-is-brexit-going-to-be/782701/178 "2017-05-02T15:19:28Z")
> [@Quartz](#): > > But the UK does have the ability to walk away. There are plenty of countries - principally the old British Empire - waiting to do business. I’d say it’s the other way aroung: all the EU countries have issued a Statement of Standing together - so no deals with indivdiual countries; and they have said that the EU is ready to accept that a deal may fail and will then walk away. This is a drastic Change to all the previous tantrums GB threw to get Special concessions (“I want my Money back”) by threatening leave - now GB is leaving, so goodbye, don’t let the door hit you on the way out. I don’t see how anybody can expect a better deal than the Special deal GB had before. I also don’t see how limiting GB to trade with Commonwealth countries will be better than trading with all of the EU, and through the EU, Special deals (because of the combined power) with non-EU, non-Commonwealth countries. Also, Trump suddenly reversed again and no longer offers a Special GB-USA deal. (Though with Trump, you never know what his opinion might be next week. Why don’t you offer him a Special deal to build a Hotel? That seems to help other countries getting favourite friend Status). ---
**Author:** ![Malden\_Capell](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/malden_capell/32/5274_2.png) [@Malden\_Capell](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Malden_Capell)\ **Post date:** [May 2, 2017, 3:54pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-bad-is-brexit-going-to-be/782701/179 "2017-05-02T15:54:33Z")
Quartz, this seems to be a rehash of this ‘they need us more than we need them’ claim, which is absurd, and the EU evidently thinks it is, too. ---
**Author:** ![Really\_Not\_All\_That\_Bright](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/e8c25b/32.png) [@Really\_Not\_All\_That\_Bright](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Really_Not_All_That_Bright)\ **Post date:** [May 2, 2017, 4:09pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-bad-is-brexit-going-to-be/782701/180 "2017-05-02T16:09:06Z")
The UK is basically just a gigantic financial services provider, which is about to lose one of the three major reasons it became a gigantic financial services provider (access to the common market; the other two are the common law tradition and inertia). The UK is currently below the OECD average in both median income and wealth, despite being propped up by the City. Once all that foreign investment is gone, what will be left? Wind farms, Formula 1 and Premiership football are not exactly going to prop up a national economy. BAE is only profitable because of the UK’s above-grade defense spending, and Oxford and Cambridge are unlikely to remain global research and education hubs when they’re not being heavily subsidized. All this stuff about how there are lots of other trade partners out there is silly. Shipping lamb to South Africa is going to be just a little less efficient than shipping it across the Channel. ---
**Author:** ![Quartz](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/quartz/32/267_2.png) [@Quartz](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Quartz)\ **Post date:** [May 2, 2017, 4:23pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-bad-is-brexit-going-to-be/782701/181 "2017-05-02T16:23:29Z")
> [@Malden\_Capell](#): > > Sure, but without trade agreements in place, that will be difficult. Really? Funny how we managed in days gone by without them. [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-bad-is-brexit-going-to-be/782701.md?page=8) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-bad-is-brexit-going-to-be/782701.md?page=10)