# How bad of a Blackjack strategy is “never bust”? **URL:** \ **Category:** The Game Room\ **Tags:** board-card-word-game\ **Created:** [March 11, 2022, 10:57pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-bad-of-a-blackjack-strategy-is-never-bust/960925 "2022-03-11T22:57:59Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 1
**Author:** ![Jackknifed\_Juggernaut](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/j/9de053/32.png) [@Jackknifed\_Juggernaut](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Jackknifed_Juggernaut)\ **Post date:** [March 11, 2022, 10:57pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-bad-of-a-blackjack-strategy-is-never-bust/960925/1 "2022-03-11T22:57:59Z")
I know it’s not the optimal strategy, but how bad of a blackjack strategy would it be to never take a hit on a 12 or higher (unless it’s ‘soft’), regardless of the dealer’s card being shown? Basically, how much worse is it than playing “perfect Blackjack”? ---
**Author:** ![iamthewalrus\_3](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/i/258eb7/32.png) [@iamthewalrus\_3](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/iamthewalrus_3)\ **Post date:** [March 11, 2022, 11:12pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-bad-of-a-blackjack-strategy-is-never-bust/960925/2 "2022-03-11T23:12:45Z")
You might need to specify a bit more here. Do you split 6s and 7s regardless of dealer’s card, since you’re not going to hit when basic strategy says you should? Or do you stand on those? ---
**Author:** ![Jackknifed\_Juggernaut](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/j/9de053/32.png) [@Jackknifed\_Juggernaut](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Jackknifed_Juggernaut)\ **Post date:** [March 11, 2022, 11:20pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-bad-of-a-blackjack-strategy-is-never-bust/960925/3 "2022-03-11T23:20:21Z")
Good question, as I knew my question seemed too simple. The basic premise is for someone who has never played, and doesn’t know the odds or the ability to figure them out. So I think the “split” strategy in this case would be to split if your pair card is higher than or equal to the dealer’s show card. Thus, you split the 6’s or 7’s only if the dealer’s card is lower 7 (I think). ---
**Author:** ![iamthewalrus\_3](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/i/258eb7/32.png) [@iamthewalrus\_3](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/iamthewalrus_3)\ **Post date:** [March 12, 2022, 12:23am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-bad-of-a-blackjack-strategy-is-never-bust/960925/4 "2022-03-12T00:23:38Z")
Thinking about it more, there are two questions here: 1. What is the optimal blackjack strategy that can’t bust 2. What is the house edge against that strategy The first question might be a simple modification of basic strategy or it might not. There are also unfortunately a bunch of variants of blackjack, so the full answer to this is probably going to be a multi-input calculation. ---
**Author:** ![China\_Guy](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/c/779978/32.png) [@China\_Guy](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/China_Guy)\ **Post date:** [March 12, 2022, 3:00am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-bad-of-a-blackjack-strategy-is-never-bust/960925/5 "2022-03-12T03:00:33Z")
I got trained in black jack by a bunch of quantitative invesment banker traders (before computer algorithms took over. Just for fun they read a bunch of blackjack books and memorized the statistical tables. Rule of thumb, assume the dealer’s hidden card is a 10. That drives whether you hold or hit. Of course the probabilities change depending on what the dealer face card is and what you have. ---
**Author:** ![Jackknifed\_Juggernaut](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/j/9de053/32.png) [@Jackknifed\_Juggernaut](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Jackknifed_Juggernaut)\ **Post date:** [March 12, 2022, 3:13am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-bad-of-a-blackjack-strategy-is-never-bust/960925/6 "2022-03-12T03:13:52Z")
While I don’t actually play blackjack much any more (I like craps and roulette more for different reasons), my Stats professor gave us cards that showed the optimal strategy for every card situation back in 1990 or so. I think casinos would actually give these out for a while, and dealers in Vegas and AC will help you if you ask. The reason I actually asked the question is that I recently played at a Caribbean resort and was helping a young lady next to me (but with no luck). But I had long forgotten the optimal decisions, and since some of them are counterintuitive, I wasn’t confident that I was actually giving her the right advice. So I wondered if a “no bust” strategy would a work for a newbie. Ultimately, the odds are against you either way, but how much worse is my imperfect strategy? ---
**Author:** ![Peter\_Morris](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/peter_morris/32/359_2.png) [@Peter\_Morris](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Peter_Morris)\ **Post date:** [March 12, 2022, 3:19am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-bad-of-a-blackjack-strategy-is-never-bust/960925/7 "2022-03-12T03:19:30Z")
[Wizard of Odd (Michael Shackleford)](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Michael_Shackleford) is a respected expert on the maths of various casino games. [Here’s what he has to say:](https://wizardofodds.com/games/blackjack/basics/) > [@](#): > > ## Bad Strategies > > Three popular bad strategies encountered at the blackjack table are: never bust, mimic the dealer, and always assume the dealer has a ten in the hole. All three are very bad strategies. Following are my specific comments on each of them, including the house edge under Atlantic City rules (dealer stands on soft 17, split up to 4 hands, double after split, double any two cards) of 0.43%. > > **Never bust:** For my analysis of this strategy I assumed the player would never hit a hard 12 or more. All other decisions were according to correct basic strategy. This “never bust” strategy results in a house edge of 3.91%. > > **Mimic the dealer:** For my analysis of this strategy I assumed the player would always hit 16 or less and stand on17 or more, including a soft 17. The player never doubled or split, since the dealer is not allowed to do so. This “mimic the dealer” strategy results in a house edge of 5.48%. > > **Assume a ten in the hole:** For this strategy I first figured out the optimal basic strategy under this assumption. If the dealer had an ace up, then I reverted to proper basic strategy, because the dealer would have peeked for blackjack, making a 10 impossible. This “assume a ten” strategy results in a house edge of 10.03%. Sorry, @China_Guy. Assuming a ten in the hole is the worst strategy. ---
**Author:** ![China\_Guy](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/c/779978/32.png) [@China\_Guy](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/China_Guy)\ **Post date:** [March 12, 2022, 3:48am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-bad-of-a-blackjack-strategy-is-never-bust/960925/8 "2022-03-12T03:48:23Z")
> [@Peter\_Morris](#): > > Sorry, @China_Guy. Assuming a ten in the hole is the worst strategy. Obviously it’s a lot more nuanced than that as you pointed out. The probabilities change dramatically depending if you have a 12 and dealer is showing a 6. Just a rookie rule of thumb to assume the hidden 10. YMMV. Another rookie tip is ALWAYS split aces and eights. You can only better your odds by doing so. Memorize the probability tables, double down odds, and vary your bets depending on the odds is a good way to play if you can pull it off. ---
**Author:** ![EllisDee](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/ellisdee/32/4531_2.png) [@EllisDee](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/EllisDee)\ **Post date:** [March 12, 2022, 4:46am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-bad-of-a-blackjack-strategy-is-never-bust/960925/9 "2022-03-12T04:46:36Z")
> [@Jackknifed\_Juggernaut](#): > > Ultimately, the odds are against you either way, but how much worse is my imperfect strategy? Assuming those quoted numbers are correct, the never bust strategy has less of a house advantage (3.91%) than any roulette bet, which has a uniform house edge on double zero tables of 5.26% according to google. Comparing to craps, that ~4% edge is roughly equivalent to Place bets, which are perfectly acceptable (but far from optimal) bets to play. They aren’t considered sucker bets like playing the Field or any of the other prop bets. (Resolved immediately on the next roll; house edge is mostly double digits on those, up to ~17%.) So in general, the never bust strategy seems like a relatively benign noob strategy, better than playing roulette and roughly on par with Place bets in craps. ---
**Author:** ![Chronos](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/chronos/32/134_2.png) [@Chronos](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Chronos)\ **Post date:** [March 12, 2022, 1:46pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-bad-of-a-blackjack-strategy-is-never-bust/960925/10 "2022-03-12T13:46:55Z")
> [@China\_Guy](#): > > Another rookie tip is ALWAYS split aces and eights. You can only better your odds by doing so. To expand on that, splitting aces is good because an ace plus a random other card has pretty good odds of being 21, and splitting eights is good because a hard 16 sucks for both hitting and standing. ---
**Author:** ![Turble](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/t/8dc957/32.png) [@Turble](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Turble)\ **Post date:** [March 12, 2022, 3:36pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-bad-of-a-blackjack-strategy-is-never-bust/960925/11 "2022-03-12T15:36:16Z")
Playing the ‘intuitive’ way (doing what most of the other players or dealers advise) gives a house edge of around 2 percent; it’s not all that bad to just follow the herd. That is taken from a study tracking several hundred thousand hands in Las Vegas. Note that most dealers play typical tourist strategy – very few are actually ‘good’ players. Most of the mistakes (departures from correct basic strategy) are from incorrect doubles, splits, and soft totals, with a few from incorrectly not hitting bust hands like 12 or 13. ---
**Author:** ![Jackknifed\_Juggernaut](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/j/9de053/32.png) [@Jackknifed\_Juggernaut](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Jackknifed_Juggernaut)\ **Post date:** [March 12, 2022, 3:50pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-bad-of-a-blackjack-strategy-is-never-bust/960925/12 "2022-03-12T15:50:27Z")
You should split aces and 8’s even when the dealer’s face card is a 9, 10 or Ace? ---
**Author:** ![RickJay](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/bb73d2/32.png) [@RickJay](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/RickJay)\ **Post date:** [March 12, 2022, 3:56pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-bad-of-a-blackjack-strategy-is-never-bust/960925/13 "2022-03-12T15:56:53Z")
> [@Jackknifed\_Juggernaut](#): > > I know it’s not the optimal strategy, but how bad of a blackjack strategy would it be to never take a hit on a 12 or higher (unless it’s ‘soft’), regardless of the dealer’s card being shown? Basically, how much worse is it than playing “perfect Blackjack”? It’s terrible. There’s no other way to put it. You are going to lose an immense number of hands you should have won, and not win nearly enough going the other way to make up for it. If you stand on 12 against a dealer 10, you are 15% likelier to lose the hand than if you hit. That is a BIG swing. Even in less extreme scenarios you’re handing away money; if you stand on 15 against a 10 you give up 3.5% edge. That might not look like much but remember that if you play ideal strategy the house’s overall edge is just one percent or so (depends a little on house rules) so that’s a bit giveaway. > [@Jackknifed\_Juggernaut](#): > > You should split aces and 8’s even when the dealer’s face card is a 9, 10 or Ace? Yes. It gives you a very, very significant boost. You are still at a disadvantage, but splitting eights against a ten reduces the house edge by five or six percent, and splitting aces **makes you a significant favorite.** ---
**Author:** ![Turble](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/t/8dc957/32.png) [@Turble](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Turble)\ **Post date:** [March 12, 2022, 4:03pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-bad-of-a-blackjack-strategy-is-never-bust/960925/14 "2022-03-12T16:03:36Z")
Unless you are a skilled card counter, yes. ---
**Author:** ![Jackknifed\_Juggernaut](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/j/9de053/32.png) [@Jackknifed\_Juggernaut](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Jackknifed_Juggernaut)\ **Post date:** [March 12, 2022, 4:10pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-bad-of-a-blackjack-strategy-is-never-bust/960925/15 "2022-03-12T16:10:47Z")
Thanks. I actually just meant that question for the 8’s, as I always have split Aces. But to me, doubling your amount at risk with 8’s versus a 9, 10 or Ace seems like throwing good money on top of bad. ---
**Author:** ![RickJay](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/bb73d2/32.png) [@RickJay](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/RickJay)\ **Post date:** [March 12, 2022, 4:11pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-bad-of-a-blackjack-strategy-is-never-bust/960925/16 "2022-03-12T16:11:32Z")
> [@Turble](#): > > Unless you are a skilled card counter, yes. Well, and even if you have an accurate count you’re still going to usually split eights and almost always split aces. Players don’t split enough, actually. Deuces and threes should be split against weak dealer upcards but most people don’t do that. ---
**Author:** ![Turble](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/t/8dc957/32.png) [@Turble](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Turble)\ **Post date:** [March 12, 2022, 6:30pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-bad-of-a-blackjack-strategy-is-never-bust/960925/17 "2022-03-12T18:30:37Z")
16 is the worst hand and you expect to lose money when you get it. If you split 8/8 you still expect to lose money. If you don’t split them you expect to lose even more. The dealer doesn’t always make a good hand even with 9 or 10 showing. Short-run you can never lose more than your initial bet if you don’t split. Long-run you lose less by splitting but sometimes lose more. In the long-run it it better to lose less. ---
**Author:** ![Asuka](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/dec6dc/32.png) [@Asuka](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Asuka)\ **Post date:** [March 12, 2022, 8:31pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-bad-of-a-blackjack-strategy-is-never-bust/960925/18 "2022-03-12T20:31:31Z")
How much does the house rule (literally, it’s a rule for playing with your buddies) of “Dealers Must Hit on 20” change the game? ---
**Author:** ![RickJay](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/bb73d2/32.png) [@RickJay](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/RickJay)\ **Post date:** [March 13, 2022, 4:40am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-bad-of-a-blackjack-strategy-is-never-bust/960925/19 "2022-03-13T04:40:23Z")
I hope it’s for real money because the players will win in the long run. ---
**Author:** ![Wheelz](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/wheelz/32/5718_2.png) [@Wheelz](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Wheelz)\ **Post date:** [April 18, 2022, 7:51pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-bad-of-a-blackjack-strategy-is-never-bust/960925/20 "2022-04-18T19:51:57Z")
> [@Asuka](#): > > How much does the house rule (literally, it’s a rule for playing with your buddies) of “Dealers Must Hit on 20” change the game? I have never, ever been to a casino with a “dealer must hit on 20” rule. Please tell me where this is, because I want to play blackjack there. [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-bad-of-a-blackjack-strategy-is-never-bust/960925.md?page=2)