# How bad will the California drought get? **URL:** \ **Category:** Factual Questions\ **Created:** [April 12, 2015, 4:35am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-bad-will-the-california-drought-get/717472 "2015-04-12T04:35:48Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 2
**Author:** ![Rhythmdvl](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/85f322/32.png) [@Rhythmdvl](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Rhythmdvl)\ **Post date:** [April 12, 2015, 7:25pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-bad-will-the-california-drought-get/717472/21 "2015-04-12T19:25:08Z")
Forget it John; it’s Chinatown. ---
**Author:** ![Rick](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/9f8e36/32.png) [@Rick](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Rick)\ **Post date:** [April 12, 2015, 7:46pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-bad-will-the-california-drought-get/717472/22 "2015-04-12T19:46:17Z")
> [@Mr\_Downtown](#): > > An even more serious drought in California could lead to . . . > > . . . not using cheap water to grow cotton in the fricking Mohave Desert. Or dozens of other crops that could be—and previously were—grown in other parts of the US, just with not quite as long a growing season or not quite as productively. > > California’s water crisis is a lot like our landfill crisis of the 1990s. It’s a crisis of political will more than natural shortages. Yeah, all we have to do is [fill](http://querosaber.sapo.pt/media/galeria_multimedia_v2/offline/7761.0.original.jpg)[these](http://2014.igem.org/wiki/images/7/7d/California_after_1.jpg) [suckers](http://gb.cri.cn/mmsource/images/2014/09/23/3649423b5ae44fe5a4ac5c73ece086ff.jpg) [with](http://cbsnews1.cbsistatic.com/hub/i/r/2014/09/01/237b62b4-0dc5-47ce-a29d-6aa0da8f638b/resize/620x465/1f3df8647cb12986ae257a7c38d62bdc/454431006.jpg) [political will](http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/images/user3303/imageroot/2014/08/20140825_cali1.jpg). the problem is there isn’t a lot of [political will](http://media.nbcbayarea.com/images/1200*675/drought_california_map.jpg) in the mountains. ---
**Author:** ![Amateur\_Barbarian](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/59ef9b/32.png) [@Amateur\_Barbarian](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Amateur_Barbarian)\ **Post date:** [April 12, 2015, 9:27pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-bad-will-the-california-drought-get/717472/23 "2015-04-12T21:27:53Z")
You’re all still missing the point. There’s no amount of ‘fair pricing’ and so forth that will fix the problem - not now, anyway, however much it might have worked in prior eras. _There isn’t enough water to sell to everyone_, and there will be less and less in the next few decades. Water from the north is essentially shut off. Water from the Colorado River basin is a fraction of what it used to be. Groundwater is disappearing. We don’t have the technology to desalinate ag quantities of water, at least, not at anything like a reasonable cost. Within this decade, the only crops that will be economically viable in the southern half of California will be those that can grow without irrigation and those that are so intrinsically valuable that “fair market” water doesn’t affect their sales. ---
**Author:** ![Johnny\_L.A](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/johnny_l.a/32/1084_2.png) [@Johnny\_L.A](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Johnny_L.A)\ **Post date:** [April 12, 2015, 9:42pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-bad-will-the-california-drought-get/717472/24 "2015-04-12T21:42:23Z")
> [@Amateur\_Barbarian](#): > > the only crops that will be economically viable in the southern half of California will be those that can grow without irrigation [del]Arizona?[/del] California? There ain’t nothin’ there but jack rabbits and loco weed! ---
**Author:** ![Leo\_Bloom](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/leo_bloom/32/10377_2.png) [@Leo\_Bloom](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Leo_Bloom)\ **Post date:** [April 13, 2015, 1:11am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-bad-will-the-california-drought-get/717472/25 "2015-04-13T01:11:42Z")
> [@Rhythmdvl](#): > > Forget it John; it’s Chinatown. Damn, you beat me to it (meaning, I forget to remember it): I’ve posted this basically whenever anything remotely connected to drought or water supply comes up, and this was my big chance. Bad for glass. ---
**Author:** ![eschereal](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/eschereal/32/18939_2.png) [@eschereal](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/eschereal)\ **Post date:** [April 13, 2015, 2:35am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-bad-will-the-california-drought-get/717472/26 "2015-04-13T02:35:02Z")
> [@Johnny\_L.A](#): > > [del]Arizona?[/del] California? There ain’t nothin’ there but jack rabbits and loco weed! … and shoes, [never forget the shoes](http://3.bp.blogspot.com/-fQgzgYobTQc/UODngSpNA3I/AAAAAAAAA1I/AN0LBKB9HkY/s1600/033.jpg) ---
**Author:** ![Urbanredneck](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/u/ea5d25/32.png) [@Urbanredneck](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Urbanredneck)\ **Post date:** [April 13, 2015, 10:14am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-bad-will-the-california-drought-get/717472/27 "2015-04-13T10:14:53Z")
It’s interesting how you all keep mentioning a drop in California agriculture. I wonder how that will effect agriculture in other parts of the country? I know California grows alot of fruits, vegetables, and other high value crops but their has been alot of experimentation in growing those in other parts of the country or using other growing methods like in greenhouses or by using hydroponics. If Californias crops dry up the economics of those are sure to increase. As for vineyards almost every state in the country has vineyards now. ---
**Author:** ![naita](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/naita/32/5862_2.png) [@naita](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/naita)\ **Post date:** [April 13, 2015, 1:41pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-bad-will-the-california-drought-get/717472/28 "2015-04-13T13:41:37Z")
> [@Urbanredneck](#): > > As for vineyards almost every state in the country has vineyards now. I was surprised by how accurate that was, but still, California is alone responsible for nearly 90 % of production. I think it would be a serious challenge for the rest to pick up the slack. ---
**Author:** ![bob\_2](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/bob_2/32/3341_2.png) [@bob\_2](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/bob_2)\ **Post date:** [April 13, 2015, 1:56pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-bad-will-the-california-drought-get/717472/29 "2015-04-13T13:56:52Z")
I am sure I read, years ago, some scheme for towing icebergs down (or rather - up) to LA. What happened to that idea? ---
**Author:** ![Ethilrist](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/ethilrist/32/4604_2.png) [@Ethilrist](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Ethilrist)\ **Post date:** [April 13, 2015, 1:59pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-bad-will-the-california-drought-get/717472/30 "2015-04-13T13:59:08Z")
> [@bob\_2](#): > > I am sure I read, years ago, some scheme for towing icebergs down (or rather - up) to LA. What happened to that idea? People looked at the math and figured out that it would be more energy-efficient to build desalinazation plants all up and down the coast. Then they didn’t build the plants. ---
**Author:** ![John\_Mace](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/john_mace/32/185_2.png) [@John\_Mace](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/John_Mace)\ **Post date:** [April 13, 2015, 2:18pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-bad-will-the-california-drought-get/717472/31 "2015-04-13T14:18:27Z")
> [@Urbanredneck](#): > > As for vineyards almost every state in the country has vineyards now. Most good wine is made in areas with a Mediterranean climate, and very few states have that. Wine growing areas are not fungible that way. But vineyards, once established, don’t need a lot of water-- not like almonds, cotton or rice. ---
**Author:** ![Tom\_Tildrum](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/t/e95f7d/32.png) [@Tom\_Tildrum](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Tom_Tildrum)\ **Post date:** [April 13, 2015, 3:15pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-bad-will-the-california-drought-get/717472/32 "2015-04-13T15:15:39Z")
[Recent](https://www.climate.gov/news-features/blogs/enso/tropics-prime-suspect-behind-warm-cold-split-over-north-america-during) [research](http://www.washingtonpost.com/news/morning-mix/wp/2015/04/10/californias-drought-and-the-weird-warm-blob-in-the-pacific-that-may-be-fueling-it/) has tied California’s drought to a long-term cycle in the North Pacific. ---
**Author:** ![Amateur\_Barbarian](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/59ef9b/32.png) [@Amateur\_Barbarian](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Amateur_Barbarian)\ **Post date:** [April 13, 2015, 4:16pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-bad-will-the-california-drought-get/717472/33 "2015-04-13T16:16:01Z")
> [@Tom\_Tildrum](#): > > [Recent](https://www.climate.gov/news-features/blogs/enso/tropics-prime-suspect-behind-warm-cold-split-over-north-america-during) [research](http://www.washingtonpost.com/news/morning-mix/wp/2015/04/10/californias-drought-and-the-weird-warm-blob-in-the-pacific-that-may-be-fueling-it/) has tied California’s drought to a long-term cycle in the North Pacific. But all the usual cycles are now being augmented/disrupted by global warming. The same is here in the Northeast: these “unusual conditions” are the new normal, until they’ll be displaced by new-new normals… but the old normals will be fluke years. ---
**Author:** ![Diceman](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/22d042/32.png) [@Diceman](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Diceman)\ **Post date:** [April 13, 2015, 4:39pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-bad-will-the-california-drought-get/717472/34 "2015-04-13T16:39:58Z")
ISTR reading that the water allocations for the Colorado River were set during what turned out to be an unusually rainy year. So really, what they tend to call a “drought” is really just normal. Like how the level of the Great Lakes is _always_ below normal. Literally every year, they tell us lake levels are below normal. Maybe one year in ten is described as above normal, but no more than that. Once you notice the patent absurdity of it, you start to wonder when they decided what “normal” was. During the biblical Great Flood, perhaps? But overall, yeah, there’s no getting around the fact that setting up a huge agricultural empire in the middle of the desert was not the most foresighted of choices. Ultimately, there’s only one thing that can possibly happen: the agriculture will shift to other parts of the country (or world), and California will dry up again. ---
**Author:** ![TroutMan](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/troutman/32/6721_2.png) [@TroutMan](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/TroutMan)\ **Post date:** [April 13, 2015, 6:13pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-bad-will-the-california-drought-get/717472/35 "2015-04-13T18:13:25Z")
> [@davida03801](#): > > Until they address the use of water for agriculture, gold courses, and swimming pools they are not serious. Your point is correct because ag use swamps out the rest. But for golf courses and swimming pools, those are generally served by the water districts which are now under 25% mandatory cuts. Swimming pools will certainly fall under the restrictions imposed by the districts, and golf course very likely will as well. > [@Shakester](#): > > That’s not a drought, [this was a drought](http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2000s_Australian_drought). Ah, I see you’ve played drought-y / flood-y before. ---
**Author:** ![snowthx](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/snowthx/32/10660_2.png) [@snowthx](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/snowthx)\ **Post date:** [April 13, 2015, 6:28pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-bad-will-the-california-drought-get/717472/36 "2015-04-13T18:28:38Z")
> [@Diceman](#): > > But overall, yeah, there’s no getting around the fact that setting up a huge agricultural empire in the middle of the desert was not the most foresighted of choices. Note that the San Joaquin valley was not always the way it appears today. When Europeans began settling California, the climate and landscape lent itself to agriculture. There were free-flowing rivers in every valley, and lush vegetation. [Wiki](http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/San_Joaquin_Valley)… _Starting 2 million years ago, a series of glacial episodes periodically caused much of the valley to become a fresh water lake. Lake Corcoran was the last widespread lake to fill the valley about 700,000 years ago. At the beginning of the Holocene there were three major lakes remaining in the southern part of the Valley, Tulare Lake, Buena Vista Lake and Kern Lake. In the late 19th and in the 20th Century, agricultural diversion of the Kern River eventually dried out these lakes. Today, only a fragment of Buena Vista Lake remains as two small lakes Lake Webb and Lake Evans in a portion of the former Buena Vista Lakebed._ Like everything else, people have a hard time controlling themselves when faced with something good. Good climate, great soil, and available water sources. We still have two of the three, but there are many millions of people who have their hands on the water now. It’s easy to see why people invested so much in agriculture way back when, even tho is does not seem to make sense now. ---
**Author:** ![Gatopescado](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/gatopescado/32/5711_2.png) [@Gatopescado](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Gatopescado)\ **Post date:** [April 13, 2015, 6:29pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-bad-will-the-california-drought-get/717472/37 "2015-04-13T18:29:52Z")
> [@Rick](#): > > the problem is there isn’t a lot of [political will](http://media.nbcbayarea.com/images/1200*675/drought_california_map.jpg) in the mountains. Hey! I can see my house in that picture! ---
**Author:** ![Twoflower](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/twoflower/32/22_2.png) [@Twoflower](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Twoflower)\ **Post date:** [April 13, 2015, 6:39pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-bad-will-the-california-drought-get/717472/38 "2015-04-13T18:39:24Z")
The latest state regulations are sparing agriculture because the farms have already take a big hit. Many of the reservoirs and canals that supply irrigation systems are run by the US Bureau of Reclamation, not the State. Water deliveries from the federal systems has essentially been cut to zero already; lack of additional cuts in state water supplies doesn’t mean farmers getting all the water they want. Many golf courses irrigate with reclaimed wastewater, not drinking water; and there are definitely new restrictions on using water for pools or fountains. Standard procedure in California is that we save up the winter rain and snow to get through a 6-8 month dry period every single year. This winter, there was enough rain to raise the reservoirs up to about 80% full; the big gap is the near-total lack of snowpack. We’ll have enough water to get through the summer, and the planned conservation efforts should stretch that to next fall. But if nest winter is dry/warm again, we’re out of reserves, & we’ll be seriously screwed. ---
**Author:** ![No\_umlaut\_for\_U](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/n/ea5d25/32.png) [@No\_umlaut\_for\_U](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/No_umlaut_for_U)\ **Post date:** [April 13, 2015, 6:54pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-bad-will-the-california-drought-get/717472/39 "2015-04-13T18:54:28Z")
I can’t see why many of the crops grown in California can’t be grown in the Midwest. Look at all the canneries there used to be in Iowa, Illinois, and Wisconsin. The latter still grows a lot of cabbage, potatoes, and peas. Even Ohio had a huge tomato industry at one point. Lettuce can be grown nearly anywhere, as long as it doesn’t get too hot. Radishes have a ~20 day growth to harvest. We need to get used to not getting every vegetable and fruit every day of the year. ---
**Author:** ![Ornery\_Bob](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/o/da6949/32.png) [@Ornery\_Bob](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Ornery_Bob)\ **Post date:** [April 13, 2015, 7:09pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-bad-will-the-california-drought-get/717472/40 "2015-04-13T19:09:09Z")
> [@Twoflower](#): > > . This winter, there was enough rain to raise the reservoirs up to about 80% full; the big gap is the near-total lack of snowpack. According to [CaliforniaDrought.org](http://www.californiadrought.org/drought/current-conditions/), as of March 31st we were at 65% of average full. As for snow… according to the [California Department of Water Resources](http://www.water.ca.gov/waterconditions/) - “California set a new “low water” mark today with its early-April snowpack measurement. The statewide electronic reading of the snowpack’s water content stood at 5 percent of the April 1st average. Today’s content was only 1.4 inches, or 5 percent of the 28-inch average. The lowest previous reading since 1950 was 25 percent of average, so Water Year 2015 is the driest winter in California’s written record.” I’ve lived in California for 60+ years and I’m with those who believe that current conditions represent the new norm. [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-bad-will-the-california-drought-get/717472.md?page=1) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-bad-will-the-california-drought-get/717472.md?page=3)