# How badly could America devastate China **URL:** \ **Category:** Factual Questions\ **Created:** [January 25, 2007, 12:07am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-badly-could-america-devastate-china/389343 "2007-01-25T00:07:06Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 12\ **Page:** 2
**Author:** ![Siam\_Sam](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/d78d45/32.png) [@Siam\_Sam](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Siam_Sam)\ **Post date:** [January 25, 2007, 5:34am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-badly-could-america-devastate-china/389343/21 "2007-01-25T05:34:15Z")
[QUOTE=Quartz] China’s shaping up to be the major other power in the 21st century. Suppose there were a confrontation between America and China. Suppose that America uses nukes. But China’s a huge country with over 1.3 billion people. If it were to lose a **billion** people, it would still be more populous than the US. China’s approximately 10M sq. km. If an average warhead has a devastation area of 100 sq. km (10 km x 10 km), that’s going to require 100,000 nukes, vastly more than we have. But the population is clustered, as are production centres etc. So how badly could the US devastate China? Sufficiently badly for them to take pause? [/QUOTE] I’ve noticed that nothing ever seems to work out for a century the way people truly believe it will at the beginning of the century. Who in 1800 (okay, 1801) could have even remotely predicted what would happe? And in 1900/01? No, I think all these reports of China rising are going to be proved false. Myself, I think it will be India’s century. India has the English-language skills that China lacks. Of course, it’s often fractured English in India, but still a couple of legs up on China. It’s got the labor pool. I think India is worth watching; I’d put my money on it, not China to emerge on top in the region this century. China just seems like it’s ready to implode. ---
**Author:** ![Der\_Trihs](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/der_trihs/32/233_2.png) [@Der\_Trihs](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Der_Trihs)\ **Post date:** [January 25, 2007, 11:32am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-badly-could-america-devastate-china/389343/22 "2007-01-25T11:32:12Z")
[QUOTE=WoodenTaco] \*\*The Economy: \*\*Furthermore, the United States has a significant economic advantage so that any sustained conflict would tip in the favor of the Americans. China’s economy is based on exports to the western world, and a war would almost certainly draw embargoes from western Europe, shutting down much of China’s economic potential. [/QUOTE] Without knowing why America and China went to war, how can we predict who, if anyone Europe would embargo ? ---
**Author:** ![Coil](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/c/bb73d2/32.png) [@Coil](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Coil)\ **Post date:** [January 25, 2007, 11:51am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-badly-could-america-devastate-china/389343/23 "2007-01-25T11:51:19Z")
[QUOTE=Siam Sam] Myself, I think it will be India’s century. India has the English-language skills that China lacks. Of course, it’s often fractured English in India, but still a couple of legs up on China. It’s got the labor pool. I think India is worth watching; I’d put my money on it, not China to emerge on top in the region this century. China just seems like it’s ready to implode. [/QUOTE] Another reason for India over China is demographics. At a lecture I attended last year the speaker showed the population pyramids for China and India along with projections for 20-50 years on. I can’t recall the exact details but China has far too few young people and in a few decades they are going to have a lot of problems. India on the other hand had a much healthier population pyramid and thus was far more likely to do well in the long run. ---
**Author:** ![Siam\_Sam](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/d78d45/32.png) [@Siam\_Sam](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Siam_Sam)\ **Post date:** [January 26, 2007, 7:08pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-badly-could-america-devastate-china/389343/24 "2007-01-26T19:08:37Z")
Yes. You heard it here first: It’s the Indian Century. ---
**Author:** ![Leaffan](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/leaffan/32/299_2.png) [@Leaffan](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Leaffan)\ **Post date:** [January 26, 2007, 8:30pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-badly-could-america-devastate-china/389343/25 "2007-01-26T20:30:32Z")
[QUOTE=Siam Sam] Yes. You heard it here first: It’s the Indian Century. [/QUOTE] Is that anything like Indian summer? ---
**Author:** ![Siam\_Sam](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/d78d45/32.png) [@Siam\_Sam](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Siam_Sam)\ **Post date:** [January 26, 2007, 8:38pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-badly-could-america-devastate-china/389343/26 "2007-01-26T20:38:16Z")
It could be. 🙂 ---
**Author:** ![Ranchoth](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/ranchoth/32/1066_2.png) [@Ranchoth](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Ranchoth)\ **Post date:** [January 27, 2007, 2:41am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-badly-could-america-devastate-china/389343/27 "2007-01-27T02:41:49Z")
[QUOTE=Leaffan] Is that anything like Indian summer? [/QUOTE] It’ll balance out nuclear autumn quite nicely. 😃 ---
**Author:** ![Duckster](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/duckster/32/1244_2.png) [@Duckster](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Duckster)\ **Post date:** [January 27, 2007, 4:05am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-badly-could-america-devastate-china/389343/28 "2007-01-27T04:05:16Z")
[QUOTE=BMax] Wouldn’t we have massive fallout in the western continental US a week later? The gulf stream does go from west to east in the northern hemisphere. [/QUOTE] I’m sure you meant the [Jet Stream](http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jet_Stream). The [Gulf Stream](http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gulf_stream) is something whole different. > [@](#): > > It’ll balance out nuclear autumn quite nicely. Just in time for nuclear winter. ---
**Author:** ![Jurph](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/j/50afbb/32.png) [@Jurph](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Jurph)\ **Post date:** [January 27, 2007, 6:23am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-badly-could-america-devastate-china/389343/29 "2007-01-27T06:23:49Z")
[QUOTE=Malodorous] [China] decided to limit their arsenal to relatively few nuclear weapons and missiles, figuring that the threat of destruction of even a few large cities was adequate to deter anyone from using nukes on them[…] [/QUOTE] I agree on principle – China has gone a very interesting route with their arsenal. Note [this image](http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/W87) of a typical U.S. missile’s reentry vehicles. Those are Mk21 RVs, and they are more or less representative of every nuke in our arsenal. Each one could levy unimaginable destruction (alright, about half a megaton of destruction) on a target. Now check out [this photo](http://www.sinodefence.com/strategic/missile/df5_4.asp) of China’s idea of a good reentry vehicle size – those are Dong Feng 4 ICBMs, and the truck in front is carrying the reentry vehicle. The itty-bitty things in the foreground are people, for scale[sup]1[/sup]. :eek: Sure, we could nuke the [Three Gorges Dam](http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Three_gorges_dam) in a brilliant but understated pinpoint strike – but they’d pay us back by bouncing blast waves off the walls of the San Fernando Valley a few times. We could do one of their big port cities, but they’d just pay us back with all of Hawaii[sup]2[/sup] at once, ensuring that we never project carrier power into the Pacific again. They don’t _need_ more than three or four nukes. Any weather or reconnaissance satellites that pass anywhere over China’s territory would also be [forfeit](http://www.upi.com/SecurityTerrorism/view.php?StoryID=20070126-104235-4498r) due to their ability to do ASAT kills in low earth orbit – and the resulting debris would prevent reestablishing an orbital presence at that altitude for years if not decades. And yes, they would probably also put in a “sell” order on all of their U.S. Bonds. By declaring that they _believe_ us to be bankrupt, China could effectively bankrupt us. 1. Yes, they’re probably average Chinese-sized people, so the scale is a little off. But still: :eek: !! 2. Do you nuke the big volcano and hope for earthquakes and/or lava rain? Do you aim just off the coast and go for a boiling tidal wave? Maybe airburst over Pearl Harbor? So many decisions! ---
**Author:** ![Captain\_C](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/c/e5b9ba/32.png) [@Captain\_C](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Captain_C)\ **Post date:** [January 27, 2007, 7:51am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-badly-could-america-devastate-china/389343/30 "2007-01-27T07:51:18Z")
My money is China invading Alaska when we steal their oil reserve, which will happen to be the last one in the entire world. We’ll annex Canada, and everyone will nuke everyone else. Luckily by then, we’ll have quite a few self-sufficient vaults set up so that our population will live on, even though it will probably have to deal with mutants, ghouls, etc. Oh wait, that was _Fallout_. Nevermind. ---
**Author:** ![Ranchoth](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/ranchoth/32/1066_2.png) [@Ranchoth](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Ranchoth)\ **Post date:** [January 27, 2007, 12:41pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-badly-could-america-devastate-china/389343/31 "2007-01-27T12:41:21Z")
[QUOTE=Jurph] We could do one of their big port cities, but they’d just pay us back with all of Hawaii[sup]2[/sup] at once, ensuring that we never project carrier power into the Pacific again. [/QUOTE] Nah…we just move back into Taiwa—er, the Republic of China while the PLA POWs are rebuilding Pearl. 😃 Seriously though, yeah, I do agree that, while we might be able to take China right _out_, we’d still get badly f’ckd up ourselves. That is, of course, assuming we can’t take out their nuclear capability in a sneak attack. It’ll be tricky, and I’m not saying we wouldn’t still get our hair mussed, but we might be able to…uh, “It _would_ be tricky.” That’s what I meant to say. Yes. ---
**Author:** ![Lust4Life](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/l/ecc23a/32.png) [@Lust4Life](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Lust4Life)\ **Post date:** [January 28, 2007, 10:08am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-badly-could-america-devastate-china/389343/32 "2007-01-28T10:08:18Z")
Could the Chinese use space debris (solar system type not man made)as a weapon ? We all know that a fairly small asteroid would take out planet Earth :but theres plenty more lesser rocks floating around out there not too faraway that maybe could have their orbits amended to cause heavy damage on the U.S. below. China is advancing its space programme as is India ,Japan and even (if it ever really happens ) the U.K. Fanciful I know but theoretically possible if nothing else. [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-badly-could-america-devastate-china/389343.md?page=1)