# How big a surprise was Hiroshima to the general public?
**URL:** https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-big-a-surprise-was-hiroshima-to-the-general-public/561562
**Category:** Factual Questions
**Created:** [November 22, 2010, 7:15pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-big-a-surprise-was-hiroshima-to-the-general-public/561562 "2010-11-22T19:15:35Z")
**Posts on this page:** 20
**Page:** 3
### Author:  [@ramel](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/ramel)
#### Post date: [November 23, 2010, 5:32am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-big-a-surprise-was-hiroshima-to-the-general-public/561562/41 "2010-11-23T05:32:32Z")
> [@dolphinboy](#):
>
> As horrible a weapon as it was, it saved tens of thousands of American soldier’s lives… at least that’s what my father believes.
It may have saved hundreds of thousands of allied lives, but it saved millions, maybe tens of millions of Japanese lives.
---
### Author:  [@Snnipe\_70E](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Snnipe_70E)
#### Post date: [November 23, 2010, 5:56am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-big-a-surprise-was-hiroshima-to-the-general-public/561562/42 "2010-11-23T05:56:17Z")
> [@MEBuckner](#):
>
> I can’t find any reference to such a thing; there were some [massive air raids on Tokyo](http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bombing_of_Tokyo) months _before_ the atomic bombings ([this](http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:Tokyo_1945-3-10-1.jpg) is not a picture of [Hiroshima](http://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Hiroshima_aftermath.jpg) or [Nagasaki](http://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Nagasaki_temple_destroyed.jpg); it’s a picture of Tokyo from March 1945). There were also “1,000 bomber raids” during the war, as early as [1942 in Cologne in Germany](http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bombing_of_Cologne_in_World_War_II#First_1.2C000_bomber_raid).
I saw that one on the histroy chanel one night. It had a section where the general made the statement that it took 1000 planes over Tokyo with plans on repeating the next day.
---
### Author:  [@Wendell\_Wagner](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Wendell_Wagner)
#### Post date: [November 23, 2010, 1:24pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-big-a-surprise-was-hiroshima-to-the-general-public/561562/43 "2010-11-23T13:24:05Z")
As Little Nemo said in post #4, there was a lot of speculation among people who knew something about modern physics about the possibility of an atomic bomb. The most famous example of this was the story “Deadline” by Cleve Cartmill in _Astounding_ in 1944:
> **[Deadline (science fiction story)](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Deadline_(science_fiction_story))**
>
> "Deadline" is a 1944 science fiction short story by American writer Cleve Cartmill, first published in Astounding Science Fiction. The story described the then-secret atomic bomb in some detail. At that time the bomb was still under development and top secret, which prompted a visit by the FBI.
> In 1943, Cartmill suggested to John W. Campbell, the then-editor of Astounding, that he could write a story about a futuristic super-bomb. Campbell liked the idea and supplied Cartmill with considerable b...
The editor of _Astounding_, John Campbell, told the government agent that came to talk to him after he published the story that any information about the atomic bomb in the story could be found in unclassified sources. He then agreed not to publish any further stories about the subject for the rest of the war. Discussion of possibility of an atomic bomb and the results of a war in which atomic bombs were used were already common in science fiction by that time. Apparently Campbell also guessed that something must be going on in Los Alamos, since a significant number of his readers had sent in changes of address when they moved there.
So while the vast majority of the American public were completely surprised by Hiroshima, a fair number weren’t.
Here’s an article by Robert Silverberg about the “Deadline” affair:
[http://www.asimovs.com/\_issue\_0310/ref.shtml](http://www.asimovs.com/_issue_0310/ref.shtml)
[http://www.asimovs.com/\_issue\_0311/ref2.shtml](http://www.asimovs.com/_issue_0311/ref2.shtml)
A famous story published in 1937 about the aftermath of what certainly appears to be a war in which atomic bombs were used is “By the Waters of Babylon” by Stephen Vincent Benét, which appeared in _The Saturday Evening Post_:
> **[By the Waters of Babylon](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/By_the_Waters_of_Babylon)**
>
> "By the Waters of Babylon" is a post-apocalyptic short story by American writer Stephen Vincent Benét, first published July 31, 1937, in The Saturday Evening Post as "The Place of the Gods". It was republished in 1943 The Pocket Book of Science Fiction, and was adapted in 1971 into a one-act play by Brainerd Duffield.
> Set in a future following the destruction of industrial civilization, the story is narrated by a young man named John who is the son of a priest. The priests of John's people (th...
---
### Author:  [@Machine\_Elf](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Machine_Elf)
#### Post date: [November 23, 2010, 1:51pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-big-a-surprise-was-hiroshima-to-the-general-public/561562/44 "2010-11-23T13:51:47Z")
> [@Shakester](#):
>
> It’s also worth mentioning that **between** the Hiroshima and Nagasaki bombs, the USSR declared war on Japan and invaded Manchuria. The Japanese were well aware of just how effective the Red Army was in 1945, and avoiding that particular fight was very persuasive to the Japanese.
According to [blogger Bill Whittle](http://pajamasmedia.com/ejectejecteject/2009/05/19/the-truth-about-the-atomic-bombs-print-version/), this was a quote from Hirohito:
> [@Hirohito](#):
>
> “The enemy now possesses a new and terrible weapon with the power to destroy many innocent lives and do incalculable damage. Should we continue to fight, not only would it result in an ultimate collapse and obliteration of the Japanese nation, but also it would lead to the total extinction of human civilization… This is the reason why We have ordered the acceptance of the provisions of the Joint Declaration of the Powers.”
Although the USSR’s declaration of war may have been _a_ factor, it appears that the biggest factor was the perceived ability of America to rain nuclear destruction down upon Japan.
---
### Author:  [@Little\_Nemo](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Little_Nemo)
#### Post date: [November 23, 2010, 4:05pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-big-a-surprise-was-hiroshima-to-the-general-public/561562/45 "2010-11-23T16:05:26Z")
> [@Machine\_Elf](#):
>
> Although the USSR’s declaration of war may have been _a_ factor, it appears that the biggest factor was the perceived ability of America to rain nuclear destruction down upon Japan.
I’ve said this before but I think the Japanese surrender was based on two shocks.
Japan, like a lot of other countries, believed in its own exceptionalism. They believed that Japan was special and that somehow the Gods or history or fate was treating Japan differently than other countries.
By any objective standard Japan was losing the war by 1945. But they refused to admit this - they were Japan and Japan was special. They told themselves that as long as they didn’t lose their faith, something would happen that would turn the war around and make them the ultimate winner.
Meanwhile, on what appeared to be a slightly more realistic plane, Japan was trying to negotiate an end to the war. However, their negotiating position was pretty unrealistic - they basically wanted to put everything back to where it had been in 1941 and pretend the war had never happened.
The Soviet Union had been promised a share of Asia as part of an agreement for them to declare war on Japan and help in the conquest. But the Soviets needed time to finish the war in Europe and bring their troops to Siberia in order to attack the Japanese. They were worried that Japan might surrender before the Soviets had a chance to join in and they would be denied their victory prizes.
So the Soviets played into the Japanese hopes. They established some unofficial diplomatic lines and convinced the Japanese that the Americans were on the other end, indirectly negotiating with them. They strung Japan along with promises that the negotiations were going well and they would probably be able to get easy terms. This kept Japan from surrendering because they thought they they were negotiating a better deal.
Then came August 1945. Within the space of four days, two cities were destroyed by atomic bombs and the Soviet Union declared war on Japan. The Japanese realized that everything they thought had been true was false. There was no hope of a negotiated peace - the Soviet Union had been lying to them. And worse yet, the big last minute surprise - the atom bomb - had gone against Japan not in its favor. Fate had apparently chosen the Americans not the Japanese.
So Japan quickly fell from thinking “things are bad but we have hope that they’re going to get better” to “things are much worse than we knew and there’s no hope at all”.
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### Author:  [@muldoonthief](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/muldoonthief)
#### Post date: [November 23, 2010, 4:07pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-big-a-surprise-was-hiroshima-to-the-general-public/561562/46 "2010-11-23T16:07:11Z")
My father was a Navy recruit when the bombs dropped. He’s always said it was a complete surprise to him. And put him (and all his descendants) on the list of people who were very thankful for it - he was Pacific fleet and probably would have been part of the invasion.
> [@silenus](#):
>
> Not just one mole. The Russians had several spies in the Manhattan Project. Lousy peace-niks. Should’ve shot the lot of them. Then nuked Moscow.
You’re a history teacher, right? I will forever now picture you as Sam Kinison’s character in “Back to School”. And I mean that in the most complimentary way possible.
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### Author:  [@BMalion](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/BMalion)
#### Post date: [November 23, 2010, 4:13pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-big-a-surprise-was-hiroshima-to-the-general-public/561562/47 "2010-11-23T16:13:38Z")
> [@muldoonthief](#):
>
> …You’re a history teacher, right? I will forever now picture you as Sam Kinison’s character in “Back to School”. And I mean that in the most complimentary way possible.
My thoughts exactly!
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### Author:  [@JoelUpchurch](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/JoelUpchurch)
#### Post date: [November 23, 2010, 5:08pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-big-a-surprise-was-hiroshima-to-the-general-public/561562/48 "2010-11-23T17:08:19Z")
I remember reading in Issac Asimov’s autobiography that he had gotten hints about the work on an Atomic Bomb when he was a chemistry grad student at Columbia. He said his first reaction when hearing about Hiroshima was how it would effect his draft status.
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### Author:  [@Kent\_Clark](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Kent_Clark)
#### Post date: [November 23, 2010, 5:11pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-big-a-surprise-was-hiroshima-to-the-general-public/561562/49 "2010-11-23T17:11:41Z")
> [@Snnipe\_70E](#):
>
> The Japaneese did not give up after the bombs were dropped. There was a large faction of the military that wanted to fight on. The day they did give it up was when the Army Air Force put 1000 planes over Tokeyo and planned on repeating it the next day.
> [@RickJay](#):
>
> This does not square with the evidence.
>
> Hirohito ordered the military junta to surrender immediately after the bombing of Nagasaki and invasion of Manchuria by the USSR, which both happened on August 9. While there was some back and forth and, allegedly, a half-assed coup attempt, there is no doubt whatsoever that the events of August 9 are what triggered the desire to surrender. The USAF suspending bombing operations on August 11 in an effort to convince Japan of the Allies’ willingness to conclude peace negoatiations.
>
> Japan had for months been begging the Soviets to intervene and help arrange a peace with the Allies; the USSR’s declaration of war ended that faint hope.
There were, in fact, [continuing big bombing missions even after Nagasaki](http://www.airforcehistory.hq.af.mil/PopTopics/chron/45aug.htm), but not 1,000-plane sorties. The largest I could find was 302 B-29’s on a single mission on August 14.
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### Author:  [@Northern\_Piper](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Northern_Piper)
#### Post date: [November 23, 2010, 6:43pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-big-a-surprise-was-hiroshima-to-the-general-public/561562/50 "2010-11-23T18:43:10Z")
> [@Snnipe\_70E](#):
>
> Did not hide it from him, just did not tell him so no reason after all he was only the VP.
Yeah, it’s not like he was important or anything.
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### Author:  [@Mk\_VII](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Mk_VII)
#### Post date: [November 23, 2010, 6:44pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-big-a-surprise-was-hiroshima-to-the-general-public/561562/51 "2010-11-23T18:44:28Z")
> [@MLS](#):
>
> I thought I read somewhere that when the Russians were told by Truman about the bomb that they were not actually as surprised as was thought they should have been, and that the Russians actually had a good deal of information from a mole inside the Manhattan Project. Or am I remembering wrong?
Stalin thanked him for the information, but displayed no other curiosity about it. Either he knew already and was keeping a poker face, or just distrusted and discounted all such reports from the West.
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### Author:  [@Generally\_Giap](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Generally_Giap)
#### Post date: [November 23, 2010, 7:07pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-big-a-surprise-was-hiroshima-to-the-general-public/561562/52 "2010-11-23T19:07:44Z")
Suggested reading (background on invasion of Japan and dropping of the bombs, not on secrecy.)
**Downfall: The End of the Imperial Japanese Empire [Paperback]**
```
[Richard B. Frank](http://www.amazon.com/Richard-B.-Frank/e/B001IXS1MM/ref=ntt_athr_dp_pel_1)
**
```
2001
\*\ ***ISBN-13:** 978-0141001463
---
### Author:  [@Leaffan](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Leaffan)
#### Post date: [November 23, 2010, 7:14pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-big-a-surprise-was-hiroshima-to-the-general-public/561562/53 "2010-11-23T19:14:58Z")
Was Japan made aware before the bombings, that they were going to be bombed?
My Dad once told me that the US told Japan, look we have this atomic bomb and if you don’t surrender, we’re going to use it on you. Obviously we know what happened next. Then, the US said, look we have more of these and if you don’t surrender we’re going to drop them on you. We all know what happened next.
It was only after Nagasaki that Japan reluctantly agreed to surrender, but twice they were given that option. That’s the story pops told me, at least.
---
### Author:  [@Machine\_Elf](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Machine_Elf)
#### Post date: [November 23, 2010, 7:38pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-big-a-surprise-was-hiroshima-to-the-general-public/561562/54 "2010-11-23T19:38:50Z")
> [@Leaffan](#):
>
> Was Japan made aware before the bombings, that they were going to be bombed?
>
> My Dad once told me that the US told Japan, look we have this atomic bomb and if you don’t surrender, we’re going to use it on you. Obviously we know what happened next. Then, the US said, look we have more of these and if you don’t surrender we’re going to drop them on you. We all know what happened next.
>
> It was only after Nagasaki that Japan reluctantly agreed to surrender, but twice they were given that option. That’s the story pops told me, at least.
Referencing [this site](http://www.amnation.com/vfr/archives/008604.html), re: leaflets dropped on numerous Japanese cities (including Hiroshima and Nagasaki) on August 1, 1945:
> [@warning leaflet](#):
>
> Front side of OWI notice #2106, dubbed the “LeMay bombing leaflet,” which was delivered to Hiroshima, Nagasaki, and 33 other Japanese cities on 1 August 1945. The Japanese text on the reverse side of the leaflet carried the following warning:
> “Read this carefully as it may save your life or the life of a relative or friend. In the next few days, some or all of the cities named on the reverse side will be destroyed by American bombs. These cities contain military installations and workshops or factories which produce military goods. We are determined to destroy all of the tools of the military clique which they are using to prolong this useless war. But, unfortunately, bombs have no eyes. So, in accordance with America’s humanitarian policies, the American Air Force, which does not wish to injure innocent people, now gives you warning to evacuate the cities named and save your lives. America is not fighting the Japanese people but is fighting the military clique which has enslaved the Japanese people. The peace which America will bring will free the people from the oppression of the military clique and mean the emergence of a new and better Japan. You can restore peace by demanding new and good leaders who will end the war. We cannot promise that only these cities will be among those attacked but some or all of them will be, so heed this warning and evacuate these cities immediately.”
They weren’t warned specifically that they would/could be attacked with a _nuclear_ bomb, but they were warned before the fact that they would/could be bombed. Prior to the nuclear attacks, the target cities were spared conventional bombing runs so that accurate BDA could be conducted after the nuclear bombs were used; it’s possible this lack of conventional-weapon attacks led those cities to develop a false sense of security, leading them to ignore the leaflets.
Referencing this [PBS website](http://www.pbs.org/wgbh/amex/truman/psources/ps_leaflets.html), re: leaflets dropped on Japanese cities _after_ the first nuclear bomb was dropped on Hiroshima:
> [@PBS](#):
>
> Leaflets dropped on cities in Japan warning civilians about the atomic bomb, dropped c. August 6, 1945
>
> TO THE JAPANESE PEOPLE:
> America asks that you take immediate heed of what we say on this leaflet.
>
> We are in possession of the most destructive explosive ever devised by man. A single one of our newly developed atomic bombs is actually the equivalent in explosive power to what 2000 of our giant B-29s can carry on a single mission. This awful fact is one for you to ponder and we solemnly assure you it is grimly accurate.
>
> We have just begun to use this weapon against your homeland. If you still have any doubt, make inquiry as to what happened to Hiroshima when just one atomic bomb fell on that city.
>
> Before using this bomb to destroy every resource of the military by which they are prolonging this useless war, we ask that you now petition the Emperor to end the war. Our president has outlined for you the thirteen consequences of an honorable surrender. We urge that you accept these consequences and begin the work of building a new, better and peace-loving Japan.
>
> You should take steps now to cease military resistance. Otherwise, we shall resolutely employ this bomb and all our other superior weapons to promptly and forcefully end the war.
>
> EVACUATE YOUR CITIES.
>
> ATTENTION JAPANESE PEOPLE. EVACUATE YOUR CITIES.
> Because your military leaders have rejected the thirteen part surrender declaration, two momentous events have occurred in the last few days.
>
> The Soviet Union, because of this rejection on the part of the military has notified your Ambassador Sato that it has declared war on your nation. Thus, all powerful countries of the world are now at war with you.
>
> Also, because of your leaders’ refusal to accept the surrender declaration that would enable Japan to honorably end this useless war, we have employed our atomic bomb.
>
> A single one of our newly developed atomic bombs is actually the equivalent in explosive power to what 2000 of our giant B-29s could have carried on a single mission. Radio Tokyo has told you that with the first use of this weapon of total destruction, Hiroshima was virtually destroyed.
>
> Before we use this bomb again and again to destroy every resource of the military by which they are prolonging this useless war, petition the emperor now to end the war. Our president has outlined for you the thirteen consequences of an honorable surrender. We urge that you accept these consequences and begin the work of building a new, better, and peace-loving Japan.
>
> Act at once or we shall resolutely employ this bomb and all our other superior weapons to promptly and forcefully end the war.
>
> EVACUATE YOUR CITIES.
---
### Author:  [@Duke\_of\_Rat](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Duke_of_Rat)
#### Post date: [November 23, 2010, 7:41pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-big-a-surprise-was-hiroshima-to-the-general-public/561562/55 "2010-11-23T19:41:34Z")
> [@SandyHook](#):
>
> Actually it was tested in New Mexico. It’s called the Trinity site. Some 20 miles southeastish of San Antonio.
I had to look and see that there is indeed a San Antonio, NM. I thought geography might have run amok again.
---
### Author:  [@JoelUpchurch](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/JoelUpchurch)
#### Post date: [November 23, 2010, 8:23pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-big-a-surprise-was-hiroshima-to-the-general-public/561562/56 "2010-11-23T20:23:07Z")
The bomb dropped on Hiroshima was U-235 gun type bomb that was called **Little Boy**. Hiroshima was the first test of this design. The other approach was a Pu-239 implosion type bomb that was tested at the Trinity site and used at Nagasaki was called **Fat Man**. The **Little Boy** design was a lot less sophisticated and they probably thought they could get away with not testing it first.
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### Author:  [@sqweels](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/sqweels)
#### Post date: [November 23, 2010, 8:55pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-big-a-surprise-was-hiroshima-to-the-general-public/561562/57 "2010-11-23T20:55:24Z")
> [@silenus](#):
>
> Not just one mole. The Russians had several spies in the Manhattan Project. Lousy peace-niks. Should’ve shot the lot of them. Then nuked Moscow.
This raises the question of what history would have been like if the Commies had never gotten the Bomb.
Would the Cold War have ended much sooner, to everyone’s delight? Or would the US have used more than 2 in combat?
---
### Author:  [@KarlGauss](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/KarlGauss)
#### Post date: [November 23, 2010, 9:16pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-big-a-surprise-was-hiroshima-to-the-general-public/561562/58 "2010-11-23T21:16:01Z")
> [@dolphinboy](#):
>
> it saved tens of thousands of American soldier’s lives… at least that’s what my father believes.
US casualties, NOT Japanese casualties, [were estimated by some (Joint Chiefs) at over 1,000,000](http://www.operationolympic.com/p1_casualties.php) for an invasion of the Japanese mainland. Remember, a half million Purple Hearts had already been made. Japanese casulaties would have been in the multimillions.
Part of the reason for the high estimates for Allied casualties was that the Japanese forces on Iwo Jima and Okinawa had, by and large, chosen to fight to the death even when their situation was hopeless and they had nothing to gain by continuing to fight. It was assumed that this would be even moreso in a battle on the Japanese mainland AND also involve civilians doing much the same - fighting to the death. Moreover, at Okinawa (and many other sites), the arrival of [Kamikaze](http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kamikaze) planes demonstrated the profound will of the Japanese to defend their island. The Japanese were also known to have begun the formation of ‘Kamikaze’ boat units (I am too lazy/busy now to get a cite)
Finally, and not too relevant, but to anticipate those who lament the casualty rates caused by the atomic bombing of Hiroshima and Nagasaki, [the Tokyo fire raids](http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tokyo_firebombing) killed as many in one night.
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### Author:  [@GythaOgg](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/GythaOgg)
#### Post date: [November 24, 2010, 1:00am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-big-a-surprise-was-hiroshima-to-the-general-public/561562/59 "2010-11-24T01:00:44Z")
> [@Wendell\_Wagner](#):
>
> Apparently Campbell also guessed that something must be going on in Los Alamos, since a significant number of his readers had sent in changes of address when they moved there.
(snippage for length)
Campbell can’t possible have known that anything was going on in Los Alamos - the name was unknown to the general public and to a large extent unused even inside ‘The Project’ - insiders referred to it ‘The Hill’ or ‘Site Y’. And there was no ‘Los Alamos’ mailing address during the war; all mail for anyone working on The Hill went to a PO box in Santa Fe. This address even went on drivers licenses and birth certificates.
It’s a niggle I know. I’m sure Campbell did figure out something was up when he got several change of address notices all to the same PO box, but the name ‘Los Alamos’ wouldn’t have been in play until after the war.
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### Author:  [@user\_hostile](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/user_hostile)
#### Post date: [November 24, 2010, 5:25am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-big-a-surprise-was-hiroshima-to-the-general-public/561562/60 "2010-11-24T05:25:26Z")
> [@JoelUpchurch](#):
>
> The bomb dropped on Hiroshima was U-235 gun type bomb that was called **Little Boy**. Hiroshima was the first test of this design. The other approach was a Pu-239 implosion type bomb that was tested at the Trinity site and used at Nagasaki was called **Fat Man**. The **Little Boy** design was a lot less sophisticated and they probably thought they could get away with not testing it first.
It was tested on a small scale: two pieces of HEU were brought together briefly at criticality. (IRC, it was a slug that was dropped through a larger cylinder). A prompt burst of neutrons and some Joule heating gave the scientist some empirical numbers to match up to the theory.
This is where Richard Feynman famously coined the phrase, “Tickling the tale of a sleeping dragon.”
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