# How big will Biden's margin of victory be? **URL:** \ **Category:** Politics & Elections\ **Created:** [July 29, 2020, 2:00am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-big-will-bidens-margin-of-victory-be/916671 "2020-07-29T02:00:13Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 2
**Author:** ![Little\_Nemo](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/little_nemo/32/3120_2.png) [@Little\_Nemo](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Little_Nemo)\ **Post date:** [July 29, 2020, 5:36pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-big-will-bidens-margin-of-victory-be/916671/21 "2020-07-29T17:36:36Z")
> [@DrDeth](#): > > I am not concerned about the gaffes. I am concerned about GOP voter suppression and even out and out cheating. I agree. Republican interference in the election is Trump’s only realistic hope for winning. ---
**Author:** ![Dallas\_Jones](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/dallas_jones/32/3277_2.png) [@Dallas\_Jones](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Dallas_Jones)\ **Post date:** [July 29, 2020, 5:37pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-big-will-bidens-margin-of-victory-be/916671/22 "2020-07-29T17:37:21Z")
Keep counting those chickens before they have hatched! Worked for Hillary, almost. And even with all her flaws, she was a much better candidate than Joe Biden. Joe is just a place holder for getting the Democratic party machine back in office. He has nothing else to offer. Maybe that is enough. Maybe. ---
**Author:** ![Nonsuch](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/nonsuch/32/2922_2.png) [@Nonsuch](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Nonsuch)\ **Post date:** [July 29, 2020, 5:41pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-big-will-bidens-margin-of-victory-be/916671/23 "2020-07-29T17:41:35Z")
> [@Sam\_Stone](#): > > And there is now a revolt against Biden by the ‘woke’ left. And from their point of view, for good reason. [Progressives don’t love Joe Biden, but they’re learning to love his agenda](https://www.vox.com/21322478/joe-biden-overton-window-bidenism) [[Vox.com](http://Vox.com)] > Biden is not progressives’ champion: He does not push the envelope in the ways they want, and he has not endorsed their most ambitious ideas. But public opinion has been shifting leftward, and Biden’s thinking has shifted with it, creating a platform that progressives are genuinely excited about. It’s “the most progressive platform of any Democratic nominee in the modern history of the party,” Waleed Shahid, communications director for Justice Democrats, a group famous (or infamous) for [backing left-wing challengers to incumbent congressional Democrats](https://www.justicedemocrats.com/candidates), tells me. ---
**Author:** ![Little\_Nemo](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/little_nemo/32/3120_2.png) [@Little\_Nemo](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Little_Nemo)\ **Post date:** [July 29, 2020, 5:46pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-big-will-bidens-margin-of-victory-be/916671/24 "2020-07-29T17:46:42Z")
> [@Elendil\_s\_Heir](#): > > I think Biden will win - I _hope_ he will win - I’ve already donated to his campaign, have a bumper sticker on my car and a sign in my yard - but to suppose he will win with even a 100-vote margin in the Electoral College is extraordinarily optimistic. I disagree. The evidence is pointing towards a strong Biden win. If the election were held today - based on this week’s poll numbers - Biden would beat Trump 372 to 166. And the movement in the poll numbers is towards Biden. ---
**Author:** ![Nonsuch](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/nonsuch/32/2922_2.png) [@Nonsuch](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Nonsuch)\ **Post date:** [July 29, 2020, 5:51pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-big-will-bidens-margin-of-victory-be/916671/25 "2020-07-29T17:51:02Z")
> [@Little\_Nemo](#): > > I agree. Republican interference in the election is Trump’s only realistic hope for winning. Yes, and it’s [already started](https://thebulwark.com/electoral-chaos-in-pennsylvania). ---
**Author:** ![Little\_Nemo](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/little_nemo/32/3120_2.png) [@Little\_Nemo](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Little_Nemo)\ **Post date:** [July 29, 2020, 6:08pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-big-will-bidens-margin-of-victory-be/916671/26 "2020-07-29T18:08:22Z")
> [@RitterSport](#): > > In the debates, if he isn’t sharp as a tack, the media will be all over him, and as long as Trump doesn’t shit his pants, he’ll get a pass. > > We’ve seen this movie before – Bush couldn’t put two sentences together, but Gore rolled his eyes or something. Kerry, who actually went to Viet Nam, was somehow less of a warrior than Bush in his bullshit flight suit, even though Bush spent the war over here. Hillary Clinton feels a little ill one day and it’s “is she dying? Is she too unhealthy to handle the presidency” for days. I agree that the media used to go easy on Trump. I think this was a misguided attempt to be even handed. Trump was objectively telling more lies but the media didn’t want to file more stories of Trump telling lies so they threw out some of the stories. But I feel this is no longer the case. Here’s an example from a story I happened to read earlier today: > “Nobody likes me,” the president said in a rare moment of self-reflection. “It can only be my personality, that’s all.” The lament came on the same day that the nation surpassed the grim benchmark of 150,000 deaths as a result of the worsening pandemic. > > “Remember, he’s working for this administration,” Trump said of Fauci, who is not a political appointee who serves at the pleasure of the president. “He’s working with us. We could’ve gotten other people. We could’ve gotten somebody else. It didn’t have to be Dr. Fauci.” They’re still reporting what Trump is saying. But they directly state how what he is saying does not match reality. ---
**Author:** ![What\_Exit](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/what_exit/32/10652_2.png) [@What\_Exit](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/What_Exit)\ **Post date:** [July 29, 2020, 6:19pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-big-will-bidens-margin-of-victory-be/916671/27 "2020-07-29T18:19:39Z")
There is still a fairly good chance Biden does not win by 100 EC votes. Winning by 200 is pretty close to a pipe dream. Even if Biden does get Florida, Arizona, North Carolina & somehow takes back Ohio, he won’t quite get to 200. Really one of the silliest political polls I have seen. ---
**Author:** ![chappachula1](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/c/da6949/32.png) [@chappachula1](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/chappachula1)\ **Post date:** [July 29, 2020, 6:22pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-big-will-bidens-margin-of-victory-be/916671/28 "2020-07-29T18:22:06Z")
> [@Little\_Nemo](#): > > The evidence is pointing towards a strong Biden win. If the election were held today Biden would beat Trump 372 to 166. But ya know, the election is NOT being held today. We still have a campaign ahead, and Biden is going to destroy himself. Maybe I should start a new thread called “let’s predict how Biden will lose”. But this thread has already listed most of the reasons. Once Biden comes out of his basement, he won’t just make a few “gaffes”–he’ll make dozens of terrible, terrible, cringe-inducing sound bites that will go viral. Example: I can imagine him referring to people of color as “the colored people”. And worse than a just making a few “gaffes”, he will show his senility too often. If he makes several hundred public appearances, and in two of them he has a “senior moment”, he will lose a LOT of credibility. Example: I can imagine him facing an interviewer, starting to answer the question, but then rambling off topic, and then saying “sorry…what was the question again?”. Yes, Trump may do the same thing–making not just gaffes, but full-blown obscenities, and not just “senior moments” but full-blown loss of faculties. But Trump is immune to criticism. Biden is not. Democrats need to stop their overconfident bluster, and start worrying. ---
**Author:** ![Ludovic](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/l/7ab992/32.png) [@Ludovic](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Ludovic)\ **Post date:** [July 29, 2020, 6:31pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-big-will-bidens-margin-of-victory-be/916671/29 "2020-07-29T18:31:55Z")
I think his chances in a free and fair election are well over 50% but am still not as optimistic as the OP, as the election is a long ways off. I think his chances of being President on Inauguration Day are only slightly more than 50% once you take everything into consideration. ---
**Author:** ![DrDeth](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/b487fb/32.png) [@DrDeth](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DrDeth)\ **Post date:** [July 29, 2020, 6:39pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-big-will-bidens-margin-of-victory-be/916671/30 "2020-07-29T18:39:40Z")
For every Biden gaffe, trump will make a dozen- and worse. And Biden has been making his gaffes for decades- didnt stop him for getting into the senate or Veep. And if anyone is senile and dementia - its trump, not Biden. ---
**Author:** ![Little\_Nemo](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/little_nemo/32/3120_2.png) [@Little\_Nemo](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Little_Nemo)\ **Post date:** [July 29, 2020, 6:46pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-big-will-bidens-margin-of-victory-be/916671/31 "2020-07-29T18:46:45Z")
> [@chappachula1](#): > > But ya know, the election is NOT being held today. Which is why I pointed out that the numbers are moving in Biden’s direction. > [@chappachula1](#): > > We still have a campaign ahead, and Biden is going to destroy himself. > > Maybe I should start a new thread called “let’s predict how Biden will lose”. But this thread has already listed most of the reasons. > > Once Biden comes out of his basement, he won’t just make a few “gaffes”–he’ll make dozens of terrible, terrible, cringe-inducing sound bites that will go viral. Example: I can imagine him referring to people of color as “the colored people”. > > And worse than a just making a few “gaffes”, he will show his senility too often. > If he makes several hundred public appearances, and in two of them he has a “senior moment”, he will lose a LOT of credibility. > Example: I can imagine him facing an interviewer, starting to answer the question, but then rambling off topic, and then saying “sorry…what was the question again?”. > > Yes, Trump may do the same thing–making not just gaffes, but full-blown obscenities, and not just “senior moments” but full-blown loss of faculties. But Trump is immune to criticism. Biden is not. > Democrats need to stop their overconfident bluster, and start worrying. All you’re saying is that people who want to vote for Trump will vote for Trump. And obviously that’s true. But I’m saying it won’t decide the outcome of the election. Trump voters will vote for Trump. Biden voters will vote for Biden. But neither group is big enough to decide the election. The election will be decided by swing voters. The people you described aren’t swing voters; they’re Trump voters. The fact that they’re looking for a reason to vote against Biden isn’t a negative for Biden; he was never counting on their votes. The fact that a hundred days before the election, Trump voters feel they need to look for a reason to vote against Biden is a serious negative for Trump; his base should not be feeling any reluctance or doubts . Now step away from Trump’s shaky base into the swing voters. These are the people who aren’t inclined towards Biden or Trump; they’re going to compare the two candidates and choose between them. Do you honestly believe that any swing voter is going to compare the amount of dumb things Biden says and the amount of dumb things Trump says and pick Trump? ---
**Author:** ![Boycott](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/boycott/32/6741_2.png) [@Boycott](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Boycott)\ **Post date:** [July 29, 2020, 6:47pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-big-will-bidens-margin-of-victory-be/916671/32 "2020-07-29T18:47:46Z")
If Biden performs at his events as he did in this one yesterday he’ll be fine. > **[Joe Biden Remarks in Wilmington, Delaware on the Economy](https://www.c-span.org/video/?474269-1%2Fjoe-biden-remarks-wilmington-delaware-economy)** > > Joe Biden, the presumptive 2020 Democratic presidential nominee, delivered remarks on his "Build Back Better" plan on advanced racial equity in America's economy, including the role of the Federal Reserve and the need to consider representation... 30 minute speech on his economic plans. 30 minute press conference. No gaffes or sign of a stutter here. ---
**Author:** ![Elendil\_s\_Heir](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/7cd45c/32.png) [@Elendil\_s\_Heir](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Elendil_s_Heir)\ **Post date:** [July 29, 2020, 7:22pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-big-will-bidens-margin-of-victory-be/916671/33 "2020-07-29T19:22:38Z")
Whew! ---
**Author:** ![RitterSport](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/rittersport/32/6326_2.png) [@RitterSport](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/RitterSport)\ **Post date:** [July 29, 2020, 7:49pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-big-will-bidens-margin-of-victory-be/916671/34 "2020-07-29T19:49:47Z")
I think this thread is especially funny, since I’m pretty sure the OP said he wasn’t voting for Biden. ---
**Author:** ![Jackmannii](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/jackmannii/32/311_2.png) [@Jackmannii](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Jackmannii)\ **Post date:** [July 29, 2020, 7:57pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-big-will-bidens-margin-of-victory-be/916671/35 "2020-07-29T19:57:18Z")
The OP is amusing in the light of protest in a recent Dope thread that nobody here was guaranteeing a Biden victory. It’s somewhat disturbing that with all Trump’s baggage (steamer trunks full of crazy, stretching to the horizon), he was only down 8 percentage points to Biden in a recent nationwide poll. I project that Biden will at least match GWB’s 2000 electoral college margin over Al Gore, but I tend to be the John Banner of political prognostication.\* \*“I know…nothing!” ---
**Author:** ![Gyrate](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/gyrate/32/3588_2.png) [@Gyrate](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Gyrate)\ **Post date:** [July 29, 2020, 8:14pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-big-will-bidens-margin-of-victory-be/916671/36 "2020-07-29T20:14:24Z")
> [@Jackmannii](#): > > The OP is amusing in the light of protest in a recent Dope thread that nobody here was guaranteeing a Biden victory. The OP has not historically demonstrated a particularly pro-Democratic or pro-Biden viewpoint in the past. One might wish to take his “guarantee” of a Biden landslide in that context. Personally I think if Biden wins it will be with a margin of less than 100 EVs, and that’s assuming we have a free and fair election which is in no way guaranteed either. ---
**Author:** ![Brayne\_Ded](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/e9bcb4/32.png) [@Brayne\_Ded](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Brayne_Ded)\ **Post date:** [July 29, 2020, 8:34pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-big-will-bidens-margin-of-victory-be/916671/37 "2020-07-29T20:34:54Z")
“I see plenty of possibilities - an early vaccine that works, a terrorist attack, a bombshell surprise against Biden,…” No vaccine will be available until well after the inauguration. The only thing that will stop Biden from sweeping the board is … Biden.I think he will win anyway, but not dramatically, whereas a more charismatic candidate could walk all over Trump. But, it ain’t over till it’s over, so just possibly something weird will happen and Trump squeezes in to a very narrow victory. Of course, I hope not. ---
**Author:** ![John\_DiFool](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/john_difool/32/19543_2.png) [@John\_DiFool](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/John_DiFool)\ **Post date:** [July 29, 2020, 10:09pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-big-will-bidens-margin-of-victory-be/916671/38 "2020-07-29T22:09:34Z")
> [@RitterSport](#): > > Biden is one gaffe away from losing this election. The guy is a gaffe machine, and the media will pummel him if he makes any mistakes. But will ignore the zillions of Trump gaffes. Gotcha. ---
**Author:** ![RitterSport](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/rittersport/32/6326_2.png) [@RitterSport](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/RitterSport)\ **Post date:** [July 29, 2020, 10:13pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-big-will-bidens-margin-of-victory-be/916671/39 "2020-07-29T22:13:26Z")
I’m not saying that’s how it should be, I’m saying that’s how it is. Right-wingers constantly accuse legitimate news sources of being biased, so they go out of their way to coddle right-wingers and beat up on Democrats. ---
**Author:** ![Sam\_Stone](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/ecccb3/32.png) [@Sam\_Stone](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Sam_Stone)\ **Post date:** [July 29, 2020, 10:32pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-big-will-bidens-margin-of-victory-be/916671/40 "2020-07-29T22:32:59Z")
Gaffes hurt Biden more for the same reason that a stumble by Geralf Ford mattered more than one by Carter. Ford had been mocked for being clumsy, and therefore anything that fit the narrative was news - despite the fact that Ford was an actual athlete and Carter wasn’t. The narrative on Biden is that he’s going senile. Therefore, anything he does that advances that narrative will be news in a way that the same mistake by Trump wouldn’t be. Unfair, but that’s the way the news works. [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-big-will-bidens-margin-of-victory-be/916671.md?page=1) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-big-will-bidens-margin-of-victory-be/916671.md?page=3)