# How big will Biden's margin of victory be?

**URL:** <https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-big-will-bidens-margin-of-victory-be/916671>\
**Category:** Politics & Elections\
**Created:** [July 29, 2020, 2:00am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-big-will-bidens-margin-of-victory-be/916671 "2020-07-29T02:00:13Z")\
**Posts on this page:** 3\
**Page:** 5

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**Author:** ![Nonsuch](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/nonsuch/32/2922_2.png) [@Nonsuch](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Nonsuch)\
**Post date:** [August 12, 2020, 2:02pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-big-will-bidens-margin-of-victory-be/916671/81 "2020-08-12T14:02:06Z")

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> [@squeegee](#):
>
> FYI, FiveThirtyEight’s [election forecast](https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2020-election-forecast/) is out this morning, and it gives Trump **a 29% chance of winning the election**. Deja Vu: this is almost exactly the chances they gave Trump in 2016, and **he won**.
> 
> Whoever is complacent about Biden winning (hi, OP!), stop it.

Worth noting, however, is that the most Biden has _ever_ led according to 538’s model has been 79 to 21 on June 27. So Trump has always had at least a 1 in 5 shot of taking it, even through the summer of protests and miserable polling.

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**Author:** ![k9bfriender](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/k9bfriender/32/3283_2.png) [@k9bfriender](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/k9bfriender)\
**Post date:** [August 12, 2020, 2:16pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-big-will-bidens-margin-of-victory-be/916671/82 "2020-08-12T14:16:35Z")

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> [@Gyrate](#):
>
> The bar has somehow been set such that the Democrats must run a flawless campaign with a flawless candidate

Don’t forget that they also need to be exciting. People will apparently vote for Trump if Biden doesn’t excite them enough.

Though to be fair, Trump is pretty exciting.

I said before, we’re Murican’s, we don’t do half measures. If we can’t have the best president ever, then we will go with the worst ever. At least we won’t be boring middle of the pack.

I could really use some boring right now.

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**Author:** ![DesertDog](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/desertdog/32/11503_2.png) [@DesertDog](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DesertDog)\
**Post date:** [August 16, 2020, 3:32pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-big-will-bidens-margin-of-victory-be/916671/83 "2020-08-16T15:32:34Z")

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> [@k9bfriender](#):
>
> Though to be fair, Trump is pretty exciting.

In the sense of the “interesting times” Chinese curse.

I said before, Biden is a boring old grampaw but compared to a raving drunken uncle a boring old grampaw is looking pretty good right now.

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