# How Bush Won the Popular Vote **URL:** \ **Category:** Great Debates\ **Created:** [January 21, 2005, 5:38pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-bush-won-the-popular-vote/285940 "2005-01-21T17:38:31Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 2
**Author:** ![Demorian](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/demorian/32/7273_2.png) [@Demorian](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Demorian)\ **Post date:** [January 23, 2005, 2:22am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-bush-won-the-popular-vote/285940/21 "2005-01-23T02:22:32Z")
> [@Bricker](#): > > No, the Left never calls the American voter stupid. Never happens. Of course not. After all, some of us ARE Americans. Though there certainly is a subsection of Americans we call stupid… about 51% of it, actually. 48% aren’t bad eggs, and the remaining 1% are hanging chad and write-ins for Reagan’s corpse. ---
**Author:** ![Bricker](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/977dab/32.png) [@Bricker](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Bricker)\ **Post date:** [January 23, 2005, 2:28am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-bush-won-the-popular-vote/285940/22 "2005-01-23T02:28:47Z")
> [@Demorian](#): > > Of course not. After all, some of us ARE Americans. > > Though there certainly is a subsection of Americans we call stupid… about 51% of it, actually. 48% aren’t bad eggs, and the remaining 1% are hanging chad and write-ins for Reagan’s corpse. And do you believe this cunning strategy will enhance the likelihood that this 51% will vote for your side next time? ---
**Author:** ![Demorian](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/demorian/32/7273_2.png) [@Demorian](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Demorian)\ **Post date:** [January 23, 2005, 2:30am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-bush-won-the-popular-vote/285940/23 "2005-01-23T02:30:46Z")
> [@Bricker](#): > > And do you believe this cunning strategy will enhance the likelihood that this 51% will vote for your side next time? Well, it’s kinda like waiting for a loved one to wake up from a coma. You know, deep down, that they’re lost souls… but you keep on talking to them like they’re going to wake up any second and actually care what you had to say anyway. ---
**Author:** ![Bricker](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/977dab/32.png) [@Bricker](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Bricker)\ **Post date:** [January 23, 2005, 2:42am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-bush-won-the-popular-vote/285940/24 "2005-01-23T02:42:41Z")
> [@Demorian](#): > > Well, it’s kinda like waiting for a loved one to wake up from a coma. You know, deep down, that they’re lost souls… but you keep on talking to them like they’re going to wake up any second and actually care what you had to say anyway. Great! Good luck with that… ---
**Author:** ![Gaudere](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/g/e495f1/32.png) [@Gaudere](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Gaudere)\ **Post date:** [January 23, 2005, 2:54am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-bush-won-the-popular-vote/285940/25 "2005-01-23T02:54:32Z")
> [@](#): > > Though there certainly is a subsection of Americans we call stupid… about 51% of it, actually. [Moderator Hat ON] Demorian, take it to the Pit. You’ve had some decent posts but have also made a lot of driveby swipes lately. Put the swipes in the Pit and the debate here. [Moderator Hat OFF] ---
**Author:** ![RedFury](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/ec9cab/32.png) [@RedFury](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/RedFury)\ **Post date:** [January 23, 2005, 3:05am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-bush-won-the-popular-vote/285940/26 "2005-01-23T03:05:59Z")
> [@Bricker](#): > > Great! Good luck with that… WeLl Bricker, by allemans, get all your gloating gloating outta syate. At least Americs won’t br going down alone for as long as it’s populated by people such as yourslef. Viva Franco! Y Trujllo! I’kk let hisrory chursh them all. ONLY TAJES ---
**Author:** ![Ludovic](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/l/7ab992/32.png) [@Ludovic](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Ludovic)\ **Post date:** [January 23, 2005, 3:55am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-bush-won-the-popular-vote/285940/27 "2005-01-23T03:55:27Z")
> [@Bricker](#): > > No, the Left never calls the American voter stupid. Never happens. No one here is suggesting the American voter is stupid. If any one here is, you’re calling 48% of Americans stupid for not following a supposedly obvious strategy. Other than that, it’s a total hijack. ---
**Author:** ![carnivorousplant](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/carnivorousplant/32/3563_2.png) [@carnivorousplant](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/carnivorousplant)\ **Post date:** [January 23, 2005, 4:04am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-bush-won-the-popular-vote/285940/28 "2005-01-23T04:04:23Z")
> [@Ludovic](#): > > No one here is suggesting the American voter is stupid. A guy I worked with, lower income, voted for Reagen. He explained “I didn’t think the other guy (Carter) could win.” That’s pretty stupid. ---
**Author:** ![2sense](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/2/e47774/32.png) [@2sense](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/2sense)\ **Post date:** [January 23, 2005, 4:26am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-bush-won-the-popular-vote/285940/29 "2005-01-23T04:26:10Z")
## Your contribution is much appreciated, **annaplurabelle**. While I’m “busy” trying to duck any actual work in investigating my own theory you are making yourself useful. As usual. ---
**Author:** ![Wake\_up\_call](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/w/dec6dc/32.png) [@Wake\_up\_call](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Wake_up_call)\ **Post date:** [January 23, 2005, 5:16am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-bush-won-the-popular-vote/285940/30 "2005-01-23T05:16:29Z")
> [@2sense](#): > > Higher turnout in the battleground states is the expected outcome. That’s where the electoral battle takes place, after all. Still, those numbers would be useful if anyone knows where they can be found? [Here](http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-srv/politics/elections/2004/2000-2004_comparison.html)is the 2004 versus 2000 comparisons you are looking for from Associated Press (May require you to register with [washingtonpost.com](http://washingtonpost.com)). and [here](http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Swing_state#2004_swing_states) is the various definitions of swing (battleground) states. Note that Tennessee and Louisiana voters increased the gap between Republicans over Democrats to 15% in 2004 from 4% and 8% in 2000 respectively. Similar results can be seen in Alabama, Georgia, and of course Florida, where the Republican majority increased by one million votes in 2004. If you analyze the number of voters for each party in each state in year 2000 and year 2004, you’ll clearly see the pattern of Bible-Belt contribution to the 3 million surplus popular vote for Bush. Whereas in California, the number of Bush voters actually dropped from 4.5 million in 2000 to 4.4 million in 2004. ---
**Author:** ![Parthol](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/p/dec6dc/32.png) [@Parthol](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Parthol)\ **Post date:** [January 23, 2005, 5:57am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-bush-won-the-popular-vote/285940/31 "2005-01-23T05:57:50Z")
> [@Demorian](#): > > Of course not. After all, some of us ARE Americans. > > Though there certainly is a subsection of Americans we call stupid… about 51% of it, actually. 48% aren’t bad eggs, and the remaining 1% are hanging chad and write-ins for Reagan’s corpse. > [@Bricker](#): > > And do you believe this cunning strategy will enhance the likelihood that this 51% will vote for your side next time? **Bricker** , it sounds like you think “opinion” is synonymous with “strategy.” Why is that? Take this admittedly ham-fisted example: Imagine that you, **Bricker** , live in a society of 100 people, who elect a President by pure popular vote. For reasons you cannot fathom, 53 people in your society wake up every morning and hit themselves in the head with a rock. They think it makes them smarter by stimulating brain cells. Of the two candidates for president, one of them makes a campaign promise that if he’s elected, he’ll pass a law that _everyone_ will have to hit themselves with a rock each morning. To your great frustration, that candidate wins, 53-47, and you suspect that a significant portion of those 53 voted the way they did because the candidate was validating their feelings about rocks and heads. Now, you may well think that 53 people in your society are behaving foolishly. But that does _not_ mean that your “strategy” for the next election is to yell “You’re stupid!” at all of them. I’d hope that your strategy would be to try to educate them about the realities and dangers of head-bashing. I’m not saying that all of Bush’s policies are a silly as striking our heads with rocks. And among the 51%, there are plenty of people, like yourself, who voted based on thoughtful consideration of issues, and Bush’s various policies. But there are plenty of people who voted against Bush who honestly feel that he won because there are more people on his side who believe foolish things. From your many posts like the one above, it sounds like you think those people should just shut up and accept that the majority must be on to something or they wouldn’t be the majority. But put yourself in their shoes. Imagine that Kerry won the election on a platform of giving in to terrorist demands, and 51% of the electorate agreed with him. If you then came on a message board and said “Those people are ignorant of political reality! How can someone think it’s a good idea to cave to extremists?” would you expect the same reply that you gave above to **Demorian**? In other words, are you really saying that if a majority of folks believes something, it’s never a good idea to try to convince them that they’re wrong or misinformed? Perhaps you’re not, but that’s what it _sounds_ like you’re saying. -P p.s. **RedFury** : post, _then_ drink. Though I’m impressed that despite at least 10 typos, you got “it’s” right, apostrophe-wise. ---
**Author:** ![pulykamell](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/pulykamell/32/3166_2.png) [@pulykamell](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/pulykamell)\ **Post date:** [January 23, 2005, 6:28am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-bush-won-the-popular-vote/285940/32 "2005-01-23T06:28:40Z")
> [@Bricker](#): > > And do you believe this cunning strategy will enhance the likelihood that this 51% will vote for your side next time? Holy crap, I have to side with Bricker. But seriously, we’re not winning any swing votes with this kind of condescending attitude. Do I think 51% of our populace has made a serious mistake? Yes. Do I think they’re stupid? Well, I do think a good portion of the populace is grossly underinformed and ignorant of the issues, both Pubs and Dems. But even if one thinks Republicans are slack-jawed, knuckle-dragging, drooling cretins that should have drowned in the gene pool, that’s not exactly an effective strategy for courting the centrist swing votes. I mean, that’s a big strategy of the Republicans: they make us liberals and Democrats look like out-of-touch elitist intellectuals, and every time we insuinuate more than half the population are morons, we only confirm their rhethoric and make it more difficult to win back that center. ---
**Author:** ![annaplurabelle](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/919ad9/32.png) [@annaplurabelle](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/annaplurabelle)\ **Post date:** [January 23, 2005, 7:16am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-bush-won-the-popular-vote/285940/33 "2005-01-23T07:16:04Z")
But the GOP didn’t win by playing to the center… > [@](#): > > [Instead of trying to attract independent or moderate voters](http://www.dailylobo.com/news/2004/11/03/Opinion/Editorialbushs.Strategy.Breaks.With.Conventional.Wisdom-791263.shtml), he (Rove) and the Republican Party concentrated on appealing to religious conservatives - particularly those who didn’t show up for Bush in 2000. His rallies were limited to his supporters, and the Republican platform was designed to appeal to Bush’s core base. And it worked. > > It means Bush has proved focusing on an ideological base can be a winning strategy. It points to the continuation of polarized campaigns, with both sides appealing to their core instead of trying to build a broad consensus. Funny that precisely what they _didn’t_ do is what they are now advising the Dems to do… Anyway, here’s some dope on those faith-based GOTV efforts: > [@](#): > > [The Republican National Committee is employing the services of a Texas-based activist who believes the United States is a “Christian nation” and the separation of church and state is “a myth.”](http://www.beliefnet.com/story/154/story_15469_1.html) > > **David Barton, the founder of an organization called Wallbuilders, was hired by the RNC as a political consultant and has been traveling the country for a year** –speaking at about 300 RNC-sponsored lunches for local evangelical pastors. > > **Barton, who is also the vice-chairman of the Texas GOP, told Beliefnet this week that the pastors’ meetings have been kept “below the radar… We work our tails off to stay out of the news.”** But at this point, he says, with voter registration ended in most states and early voting already under way, staying quiet about the activity “doesn’t matter.” A case study in PA: > [@](#): > > [A Small Town’s ‘Spiritual Battle’ to Get Bush Reelected](http://www.beliefnet.com/story/154/story_15468_1.html) > …And all of these efforts, so far, seem to be working. When Pennsylvania’s voter registration closed Oct. 4, Lancaster County had about 180,000 registered Republicans, while Democrats had about 80,000. The GOP even launched an unprecedented voter registration drive among the Amish, who don’t usually vote-and managed to register at least 2,000 in Lancaster alone… > > Krysta Zola waited in line, hoping to score a Bush-Cheney bumper sticker. “I’m very Republican, but it’s kind of new because I didn’t pay attention to the news until now,” said the 18-year-old hair stylist. > > At her church, she had heard her pastor oppose gay marriage and abortion and urge members to register. She knew she would follow the directive, believing what her pastor said was true. But her pastor, it turns out, had a backup: The local GOP had a grassroots team of Bush volunteers, and her boss’s husband was part of it. He told her he would earn a Bush-Cheney pullover sweater if she’d register to vote. She said yes. > [@](#): > > [Bush’s strong performance among Catholics, it turns out, was crucial to his victory.](http://www.beliefnet.com/story/155/story_15598_1.html) Bush won Catholics 52%-47% this time, while Al Gore carried them 50%-46% in 2000. **If Kerry had done as well as Gore, he would have had about a million more votes nationwide. According to Gallup Polls, only one Democrat since 1952 (Walter Mondale in 1984) lost the Catholic vote by this large a margin.** > > **The Catholic impact was starker in key states. In Ohio, Bush got 55% of the Catholic vote in 2004 compared to just under 50% of them in 2000. That means a shift of 172,000 votes into the Republican column. Bush won the state by just 136,000 votes this year.** > > That success didn’t lead to an electoral college landslide for Bush for two reasons. First, a disproportionate share of the surge appears to be in the southern states that he already had locked up. > > Second, evangelical turnout was at least partly offset by increased turnout from pro-Kerry groups. Kerry got roughly two million more votes from 18-29-year-olds than Gore did in 2000. He received approximately 1.6 million more votes from African Americans than Gore did. Churchgoers voted in greater numbers–but so did secular voters, and, in fact, nearly everbody else. > > What’s more, it’s not yet known why Catholics might have shifted to Bush and to what extent “moral values”–whether in general or related to abortion or gay marriage–might have played a role. > > **What is clear is that the Bush campaign worked assiduously to win the Catholic vote. “If we lose any of the Catholic vote, we lose the election,” said Deal Hudson, Bush’s Catholic coordinater, said during the campaign. The campaign appointed 50,000 Catholic “team leaders” at the local level, and the president made a point of visiting the Pope (in June 2004) and putting his picture on the campaign website with a headline “Catholics for Bush.” Pro-life groups ran TV ads attacking Kerry’s support for abortion “in all nine months of pregnancy.” Efforts by liberal Catholic groups and the Kerry campaign were puny by comparison.** My bold. Some numbers: [Early indications of how the faithful voted in the presidential election](http://www.beliefnet.com/story/155/story_15546_1.html) [How did the votes of Protestants, Catholics, and Jews in 2004 compare to 2000?](http://www.beliefnet.com/story/155/story_15571_1.html) Did anyone hear about this documentary? > [@](#): > > [“George W. Bush: Faith in the White House,”](http://www.iht.com/articles/541565.html) a DVD that is being specifically marketed in “head to head” partisan opposition to “Fahrenheit 9/11.” This documentary first surfaced at the Republican convention in New York, where it was previewed in tandem with an invitation-only, **no-press-allowed** “Family, Faith and Freedom Rally,” a Ralph Reed-Sam Brownback jamboree thrown by the Bush campaign for Christian conservatives. > > Though you can buy the DVD for $14.95, its makers told the right-wing news service [WorldNetDaily.com](http://WorldNetDaily.com) that **they plan to distribute 300,000 copies to America’s churches.** And no wonder. This movie aspires to be “The Passion of the Bush,” and it succeeds. > > The majority of Christian Americans may not agree with this apocalyptic worldview, but there’s a big market for it. A Newsweek poll shows that 17 percent of Americans expect the world to end in their lifetime. To Karl Rove and company, that 17 percent is otherwise known as “the base.” > > The pandering to that base has become familiar in countless administration policies, starting with its antipathy to stem-cell research, abortion, condoms for H.I.V. prevention and gay civil rights. **And the re-election juggernaut has not only rounded up the membership rosters of churches en masse but quietly mounted official Web sites like [kerrywrongforcatholics.com](http://kerrywrongforcatholics.com) as well.** ---
**Author:** ![elucidator](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/8edcca/32.png) [@elucidator](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/elucidator)\ **Post date:** [January 23, 2005, 7:36am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-bush-won-the-popular-vote/285940/34 "2005-01-23T07:36:20Z")
To hell with that! Tell the truth: that we have been lied to, that we are still being lied to, and so long as we permit them to, they will continue to lie to us. The Bushiviks are delusional, arrogant, and self absorbed. They think they can get away with anything. It’s not us who are calling the people stupid, unless we stop trusting them, unless we start trying to fool them by being Republican Lite. Then we will have earned their contempt. Their arrogance will be their undoing. A year from now, half the people who voted for him will be swearing they didn’t. ---
**Author:** ![Demorian](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/demorian/32/7273_2.png) [@Demorian](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Demorian)\ **Post date:** [January 23, 2005, 3:12pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-bush-won-the-popular-vote/285940/35 "2005-01-23T15:12:47Z")
Yeesh, remind me to not make any more jokes around here. ---
**Author:** ![John\_Mace](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/john_mace/32/185_2.png) [@John\_Mace](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/John_Mace)\ **Post date:** [January 23, 2005, 3:34pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-bush-won-the-popular-vote/285940/36 "2005-01-23T15:34:56Z")
> [@Demorian](#): > > Yeesh, remind me to not make any more jokes around here. You’ve only been around for 2 months. “People who voted for Bush are stupid” is a tad overdone in this forum-- just a tad. Try something new. ---
**Author:** ![Demorian](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/demorian/32/7273_2.png) [@Demorian](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Demorian)\ **Post date:** [January 23, 2005, 3:49pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-bush-won-the-popular-vote/285940/37 "2005-01-23T15:49:15Z")
> [@John Mace](#): > > You’ve only been around for 2 months. “People who voted for Bush are stupid” is a tad overdone in this forum-- just a tad. Try something new. [Joke]Um… the sky is blue?[/joke] ---
**Author:** ![Bricker](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/977dab/32.png) [@Bricker](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Bricker)\ **Post date:** [January 23, 2005, 4:32pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-bush-won-the-popular-vote/285940/38 "2005-01-23T16:32:45Z")
> [@Ludovic](#): > > No one here is suggesting the American voter is stupid. > > If any one here is, you’re calling 48% of Americans stupid for not following a supposedly obvious strategy. Other than that, it’s a total hijack. > [@Demorian](#): > > Though there certainly is a subsection of Americans we call stupid… about 51% of it, actually. 48% aren’t bad eggs, and the remaining 1% are hanging chad and write-ins for Reagan’s corpse. Well? ---
**Author:** ![Bricker](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/977dab/32.png) [@Bricker](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Bricker)\ **Post date:** [January 23, 2005, 4:42pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-bush-won-the-popular-vote/285940/39 "2005-01-23T16:42:44Z")
> [@Parthol](#): > > **Bricker** , it sounds like you think “opinion” is synonymous with “strategy.” Why is that? Because when the opinion gets published by people that purport to speak for the left – blogs, message boards, celebrities – it _becomes_ a strategy. > [@](#): > > Take this admittedly ham-fisted example: Imagine that you, **Bricker** , live in a society of 100 people, who elect a President by pure popular vote. For reasons you cannot fathom, 53 people in your society wake up every morning and hit themselves in the head with a rock. > . > . > . > I’d hope that your strategy would be to try to educate them about the realities and dangers of head-bashing. Of course. But I would also acknowledge that the main failure was on my side for failing to communicate the dangers and inefficiencies of the rock plan well ahead of time. In other words, if I get beat for that reason, THE FAULT IS MINE. The simpler the proposition is that I have failed to convey, the more my fault it is. So under those circumstances you’d NEVER hear me saying that the rock bashers are idiots – I’d be castigating my side for being so idiotic we couldn’t come up with a way to convince people NOT to bash themselves with rocks! - Rick ---
**Author:** ![zamboniracer](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/z/e9a140/32.png) [@zamboniracer](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/zamboniracer)\ **Post date:** [January 23, 2005, 6:36pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-bush-won-the-popular-vote/285940/40 "2005-01-23T18:36:24Z")
I think the R’s won because in huge part because they put a happy, optimistic face on everything, even their grossest mistakes, which they never admit to. “Sure there aren’t any WMDs now, and there’s no connection between Saddam and 9/11, but we’re bringing those poor Iraquis freedom for the first time. Aren’t we great?” “Sure we’ve stretched our national guard and reserve forces too thin, and sent them in with outdated equipment and inadequate training in a war we chose to fight, but aren’ t the people in our military the greatest in the world?” [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-bush-won-the-popular-vote/285940.md?page=1) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-bush-won-the-popular-vote/285940.md?page=3)