# How can Donald Trump win at this point? **URL:** \ **Category:** Politics & Elections\ **Tags:** trump, kamala-harris\ **Created:** [August 6, 2024, 9:13pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-can-donald-trump-win-at-this-point/1005351 "2024-08-06T21:13:43Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 10
**Author:** ![Aeschines](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/aeschines/32/16251_2.png) [@Aeschines](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Aeschines)\ **Post date:** [August 7, 2024, 2:21pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-can-donald-trump-win-at-this-point/1005351/181 "2024-08-07T14:21:06Z")
Another thought on Trump stealing the election that takes his light calendar this week into consideration… Does Trump currently seem to be in a mental and physical state capable of leading a covert operation to steal the election? I would say: absolutely fucking not. And if that’s the case, then everything would need to be in place for the steal _right now,_ ready to go without further work on the part of the Orange Führer. Above, I argued that such an operation would be very complicated, and no one seems to disagree. Are these guys _just that good_ that the whole thing is plug-and-play at this point? Is it the case that they went from total clowns in 2020 to the ultimate black ops team in 2024? I have little doubt that there will be some sort of bullshit during and after the election by fascist actors, but I have much doubt that any of it will be effective. ---
**Author:** ![Aeschines](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/aeschines/32/16251_2.png) [@Aeschines](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Aeschines)\ **Post date:** [August 7, 2024, 2:23pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-can-donald-trump-win-at-this-point/1005351/182 "2024-08-07T14:23:21Z")
Thanks! I wonder if META (lol) has anything in place this time to prevent mass disinfo campaigns from being implemented on their platforms. ---
**Author:** ![What\_Exit](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/what_exit/32/10652_2.png) [@What\_Exit](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/What_Exit)\ **Post date:** [August 7, 2024, 2:25pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-can-donald-trump-win-at-this-point/1005351/183 "2024-08-07T14:25:10Z")
**Moderating** : Please remember attack the posts and not the poster. This is crossing the line to me. If you want to make it personnel, take it to the pit please. You can even do it as a spin-off thread with ease. So please don’t do this again. * * * * * * How to **Reply as a linked Topic** : Click Reply, in the upper left corner of the reply window is the reply type button, _looks like a curving arrow point to the right_. Choose **Reply as linked topic** and it starts a new thread. As an example, you can choose GD, IMHO or The Pit for it. That is actually the best method. ---
**Author:** ![What\_Exit](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/what_exit/32/10652_2.png) [@What\_Exit](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/What_Exit)\ **Post date:** [August 7, 2024, 2:29pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-can-donald-trump-win-at-this-point/1005351/184 "2024-08-07T14:29:35Z")
> [@PhillyGuy](#): > > Trump might even win the popular vote. Actually as of today, that seems very unlikely. The last 5 major polls all put Harris ahead of Trump by a growing margin. I mean who knows what it will look like in 2 weeks, but I think the gap will widen as they point out what an unhealthy lying old man Trump is and how weird his VP pick is. > **[2024 General Election: Trump vs. Harris Polls | RealClearPolling](https://www.realclearpolling.com/polls/president/general/2024/trump-vs-harris)** > > Explore poll data on the 2024 General Election between Trump and Harris with RealClearPolling. Uncover trends and gain insight into electoral dynamics for key races and decisive outcomes. So Trump can still win, thanks to the damn electoral college, but the popular vote is slipping away from his hands. ---
**Author:** ![Aeschines](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/aeschines/32/16251_2.png) [@Aeschines](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Aeschines)\ **Post date:** [August 7, 2024, 2:31pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-can-donald-trump-win-at-this-point/1005351/185 "2024-08-07T14:31:23Z")
[Salon.com](http://Salon.com) on the potential for Trump to steal the election: > **[January 6 was a beta test for 2025](https://www.salon.com/2024/08/07/january-6-was-a-beta-test-for-2025/)** > > There are remedies to stop their steal It doesn’t sound good for Trump. His best hope seems to be getting Virginia to refuse to certify its results. But Virginia is not thought to be in play at all, so such a maneuver would be a blatant cheat. ---
**Author:** ![OttoDaFe](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/ottodafe/32/356_2.png) [@OttoDaFe](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/OttoDaFe)\ **Post date:** [August 7, 2024, 2:32pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-can-donald-trump-win-at-this-point/1005351/186 "2024-08-07T14:32:24Z")
> [@Aeschines](#): > > Enthusiasm for each party’s candidate has been measured, and Harris is ahead. The Dems also seem to have a much stronger ground game. So your point is fair, but the Dems seem to have the advantage currently. > [@Kolak\_of\_Twilo](#): > > … This election has been and will end up being about turnout. If GOTV is the strong effort it should be then this will be an amazing election. And this is where I think getting David Plouffe on board is a genius move. Granted that we’re a long way from 2008 — socially, not chronologically — Obama’s ground game was a thing of beauty. ---
**Author:** ![Dinsdale](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/97f17d/32.png) [@Dinsdale](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Dinsdale)\ **Post date:** [August 7, 2024, 2:33pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-can-donald-trump-win-at-this-point/1005351/187 "2024-08-07T14:33:32Z")
At the very least, I assume DC is denying any request by Chump to hold a rally on the mall on 1/6/25… 😉 ---
**Author:** ![Aeschines](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/aeschines/32/16251_2.png) [@Aeschines](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Aeschines)\ **Post date:** [August 7, 2024, 2:37pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-can-donald-trump-win-at-this-point/1005351/188 "2024-08-07T14:37:12Z")
More on refusing to certify election results: > **[What Happens When Election Officials Refuse to Certify Results?](https://www.democracydocket.com/analysis/what-happens-when-election-officials-refuse-to-certify-results/)** > > What was once seen as nothing more than a procedural part of the elections process has, in the past two election cycles, evolved into something of a battlefield in the election denial movement.  ---
**Author:** ![PhillyGuy](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/p/ed655f/32.png) [@PhillyGuy](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/PhillyGuy)\ **Post date:** [August 7, 2024, 3:21pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-can-donald-trump-win-at-this-point/1005351/189 "2024-08-07T15:21:52Z")
> [@What\_Exit](#): > > Actually as of today, that seems very unlikely. The last 5 major polls all put Harris ahead of Trump by a growing margin Populist voters have a generally high level of distrust, and so are even more reluctant to respond to pollsters than than rest of us. At least – that’s what happened in the 2016 and 2020 cycles. While this doesn’t prove you need to add points to Trump’s numbers, it is consistent with the real substantial possibility Trump is ahead in the popular vote as of today. Switching to Harris shook up the race – I expect there to be ups and downs from here on in. To answer the OP question another way: I recall in distant past elections, where opinion moved around, it being said if only the election had been a few days sooner or later, the result would have been different. This has a significant possibility of being the case again. If so, Donald Trump can win just by being lucky in election day timing. ---
**Author:** ![Velocity](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/velocity/32/18006_2.png) [@Velocity](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Velocity)\ **Post date:** [August 7, 2024, 3:32pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-can-donald-trump-win-at-this-point/1005351/190 "2024-08-07T15:32:46Z")
Whatever ups and downs there may be, I expect the sheer desperation of much of America to not have a president who’d be 82 when he finishes a second term and 2) the thrill of history-making of having the first woman president and 3) sheer fatigue of eight years of Trump’s obnoxiousness to combine to make unstoppable-force momentum for Kamala. It would have to take not one, but _multiple_ October Surprises for Trump to stop the water built up behind that dam. ---
**Author:** ![SunUp](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/ea5d25/32.png) [@SunUp](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/SunUp)\ **Post date:** [August 7, 2024, 3:59pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-can-donald-trump-win-at-this-point/1005351/191 "2024-08-07T15:59:15Z")
> [@Dr\_Paprika](#): > > Reading about Walz in The Guardian, they quoted him as saying that in seven years in the public eye he could not recall Trump laughing. Is that true? I heard him say that he’s never seen Trump laughing except at someone else’s expense; that is, he laughs at the misfortunes of others, or when making fun of them, but never shows genuine amusement in good will. (Note that @Aeschines 's follow-up is not a counterexample, given this proviso). > [@Horatius](#): > > There’s no way they’ll come up with a lie subtle enough to trick anyone who isn’t deranged, and they won’t latch on to any such lies created by Russia, or whoever, because they don’t think they need them. The True Believers aren’t going to be the ones cooking up any effective political attacks. It will be done by some very sharp, very cynical political operatives of the Roger Stone mold, possibly focus-grouped to death and given some trial balloons on dark corners of the Internet (who knows, maybe here?) before trying to boost it to virality sometime after the Democratic national convention. Or, who knows? The cynical politcal operatives might speak Russian, or Chinese, or Korean. > [@Coriolanus](#): > > Trump did congratulate Putin the other day on the successful prisoner swap, then criticized Biden for the same thing. That only makes sense - in the Trump view of the world, any deal has a winner and a loser, and since Putin won that means that Biden must have lost. He has no concept of a win-win situation. ---
**Author:** ![Coriolanus](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/coriolanus/32/18769_2.png) [@Coriolanus](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Coriolanus)\ **Post date:** [August 7, 2024, 4:01pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-can-donald-trump-win-at-this-point/1005351/192 "2024-08-07T16:01:31Z")
So a lot of credit to Karl Rove who put a lot of effort and importance into winning at the state legislature level. Brilliant. I reckon all this stuff about states certifying voter results and vice-presidents then certifying those results is in the Constitution somewhere. There is no precedent for a sitting vice president certifying himself as president, unless you count John Adams in 1796, Thomas Jefferson in 1800, Martin Van Buren in 1836, and George H. W. Bush in 1988. Steve Bannon is broadcasting the roadmap to all the state legislatures and governors what they need to do post-election day. Heck, what they _ought_ to have done four years ago and by now we could just cancel elections altogether. Dunno if that’s quite what Karl Rove had in mind but he made it all possible and nobody’s asking his opinion anyway. Maybe this election is already as irrelevant as Nate Silver’s poll numbers. Vote or stay at home. Stop the steal or go ahead and steal it. It’s all right there in the Constitution. ---
**Author:** ![squidfood](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/a87d85/32.png) [@squidfood](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/squidfood)\ **Post date:** [August 7, 2024, 4:11pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-can-donald-trump-win-at-this-point/1005351/193 "2024-08-07T16:11:53Z")
Anyone who’s followed the last month has seen both “a week is a long time in politics” and “events, dear boy, events” play out in spades. The stock market hiccuped this week, and there’s a risk of Iran-Israel escalation on the table. Either of these could be a big fall surprise. ---
**Author:** ![bordelond](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/bordelond/32/150_2.png) [@bordelond](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/bordelond)\ **Post date:** [August 7, 2024, 4:17pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-can-donald-trump-win-at-this-point/1005351/194 "2024-08-07T16:17:40Z")
> [@Aeschines](#): > > More on refusing to certify election results: > > [What Happens When Election Officials Refuse to Certify Results? - Democracy Docket](https://www.democracydocket.com/analysis/what-happens-when-election-officials-refuse-to-certify-results/) This Democracy Docket article quotes Lauren Miller Karalunas, who co-wrote a detailed white paper on this topic earlier this year for the Stanford Law & Policy Review. This white paper is free to read - see the PDF link in the post below. It offers a well-researched deep dive into specifics, including immediately-applicable remedies to the prospect of individual local election officials refusing to certify results. > [@Trump: In 4 years we’ll have it fixed. You won’t have to vote](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-in-4-years-we-ll-have-it-fixed-you-won-t-have-to-vote/1004870/256): > > Same topic as rocking\_chair’s video link – from the Stanford Law & Policy Review (Stanford University): [Certification and Non-Discretion: A Guide to Protecting the 2024 Election](https://law.stanford.edu/wp-content/uploads/2024/02/MILLER-WILDER-FINAL-1.pdf) (PDF, 48 pages, free to access). From the article’s abstract: While efforts to impede [election] certification are not new, never before have they been deployed on such a large and coordinated scale. For this reason, little academic attention has been paid to the mechanics of state certification frameworks. This Artic… ---
**Author:** ![Coriolanus](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/coriolanus/32/18769_2.png) [@Coriolanus](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Coriolanus)\ **Post date:** [August 7, 2024, 5:03pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-can-donald-trump-win-at-this-point/1005351/195 "2024-08-07T17:03:23Z")
A bit of correction: The twelfth amendment in 1803 set up the VP’s participation in certifying elections. So just Van Buren and Bush Sr. certified themselves. In another reality, Al Gore certified himself as president in 2000, but in this reality Florida was not agreeable to the election and the Supreme Court concurred. ---
**Author:** ![Measure\_for\_Measure](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/measure_for_measure/32/557_2.png) [@Measure\_for\_Measure](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Measure_for_Measure)\ **Post date:** [August 7, 2024, 5:57pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-can-donald-trump-win-at-this-point/1005351/196 "2024-08-07T17:57:00Z")
> [@Czarcasm](#): > > Winning isn’t good enough. This man needs to be buried deep. He needs to lose so bad that his own followers are ashamed to be associated with him. His picture should be on the front page of history books, captioned “ **Never Again** ” and/or “ **We Have To Be Better Than This** ”. Yes, and we have our work cut out for us. Here’s the latest electoral map from Larry Sabato’s group at U of Virginia: [![](https://centerforpolitics.org/crystalball/wp-content/uploads/2024/08/08_07_24_ElecCollege.png) ](https://centerforpolitics.org/crystalball/wp-content/uploads/2024/08/08_07_24_ElecCollege.png) Summary: Republicans 235 Democrats 226 Toss-up 77 Rating Changes: GA: Lean R to Toss-up NH: Lean D to Likely D MN: Lean D to Likely D So we need to aim for a solid win while the fascists have wrong-footed themselves. Then we need to support President Harris. Over the medium term we need to undermine the supports for American fascism - that would be [Fox News](https://jabberwocking.com/yes-fox-news-deserves-the-blame-for-american-rage/). Definition: Fascism is a political ideology opposing democratic elections while scapegoating low-power minorities to rile up their base, and maintaining a quieter sort of support from their monied funders. Nazis were fascists but so were Mussolini of Italy, Franco of Spain, and the WWII Japanese militaristic government. ---
**Author:** ![flurb](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/f/51bf81/32.png) [@flurb](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/flurb)\ **Post date:** [August 7, 2024, 6:01pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-can-donald-trump-win-at-this-point/1005351/197 "2024-08-07T18:01:16Z")
> [@Coriolanus](#): > > A bit of correction: The twelfth amendment in 1803 set up the VP’s participation in certifying elections. So just Van Buren and Bush Sr. certified themselves. The 12th Amendment provides that, “the Electors shall . . . make distinct lists of all persons voted for as President, and of all persons voted for as Vice-President . . . which lists they shall sign and certify, and transmit sealed to the seat of the government of the United States, directed to the President of the Senate; the President of the Senate shall, in the presence of the Senate and House of Representatives, open all the certificates and the votes shall then be counted.” The Vice President does not “certify” any result of the election. His role (made explicit in the 2022 amendments to the Electoral Count Act) is solely ministerial. He opens the certificates of election and hands them off to clerks. Any challenge regarding the legitimacy of the certificates must be determined by Congress with the VP having no vote or role. ---
**Author:** ![Dinsdale](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/97f17d/32.png) [@Dinsdale](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Dinsdale)\ **Post date:** [August 7, 2024, 6:20pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-can-donald-trump-win-at-this-point/1005351/198 "2024-08-07T18:20:30Z")
Boy, maps like that are truly depressing - that we have such huge swaths of out country populated by folk who would support Chump. Such a magnitude of ignorance and ugliness. ---
**Author:** ![wolfpup](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/wolfpup/32/10618_2.png) [@wolfpup](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/wolfpup)\ **Post date:** [August 7, 2024, 6:34pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-can-donald-trump-win-at-this-point/1005351/199 "2024-08-07T18:34:56Z")
> [@Dinsdale](#): > > Boy, maps like that are truly depressing - that we have such huge swaths of out country populated by folk who would support Chump. Such a magnitude of ignorance and ugliness.   Yeah, it’s pretty scary when you realize the only thing that occasionally saves the country by electing decent leadership is the population density on the west coast and the northeast, and a couple of swing states. Electoral maps like that one are always depressing. ---
**Author:** ![Aeschines](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/aeschines/32/16251_2.png) [@Aeschines](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Aeschines)\ **Post date:** [August 7, 2024, 6:34pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-can-donald-trump-win-at-this-point/1005351/200 "2024-08-07T18:34:57Z")
I agree with you. This will go down in history as a disgraceful time for the US. [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-can-donald-trump-win-at-this-point/1005351.md?page=9) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-can-donald-trump-win-at-this-point/1005351.md?page=11)