# How can Donald Trump win at this point? **URL:** \ **Category:** Politics & Elections\ **Tags:** trump, kamala-harris\ **Created:** [August 6, 2024, 9:13pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-can-donald-trump-win-at-this-point/1005351 "2024-08-06T21:13:43Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 111
**Author:** ![bordelond](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/bordelond/32/150_2.png) [@bordelond](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/bordelond)\ **Post date:** [September 18, 2024, 9:07pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-can-donald-trump-win-at-this-point/1005351/2202 "2024-09-18T21:07:40Z")
> [@JKellyMap](#): > > This! (Love the Pringle analogy. A hyperboloid. Exactly so.) If Harris can scare up a few more points, we can start talking in terms of this little guy: [![](https://encrypted-tbn0.gstatic.com/images?q=tbn:ANd9GcRTZ3vimEF1vilTfCNmlJLZ4uu4SNb5WdU3pQ&s) ](https://encrypted-tbn0.gstatic.com/images?q=tbn:ANd9GcRTZ3vimEF1vilTfCNmlJLZ4uu4SNb5WdU3pQ&s) ---
**Author:** ![Aeschines](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/aeschines/32/16251_2.png) [@Aeschines](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Aeschines)\ **Post date:** [September 18, 2024, 9:12pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-can-donald-trump-win-at-this-point/1005351/2203 "2024-09-18T21:12:44Z")
I will note that in my OP, I talked about the “flop sweat cycle,” and I think it has mostly played out as I have expected, albeit a bit slower. In response to negative polling and a general sense of malaise (non-winning-ness, loserdom?!) around their campaign and specific events (e.g., the debate, Taylor Swift endorsement), Trump continues to accelerate the crazy, and JD Vance seems more unashamedly fascist than ever, and the response by the public does not seem positive. Their attack on Springfield, OH, was a literal hate crime, and they received a rebuke (though mild) from the Republican mayor. As I have said multiple times above, there is too much shit even to mention in this thread. Every day brings new depredations by Orange Christ and Couchboy. Thus, the idea of “limping over the finish line” seems less and less plausible to me every day. The only way in which that would make sense is if Trump is actually _growing_ his lunatic, fascist, and evil base. ---
**Author:** ![JKellyMap](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/jkellymap/32/15880_2.png) [@JKellyMap](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/JKellyMap)\ **Post date:** [September 18, 2024, 9:18pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-can-donald-trump-win-at-this-point/1005351/2204 "2024-09-18T21:18:24Z")
> [@bordelond](#): > > If Harris can scare up a few more points, we can start talking in terms of this little guy: 3-sided die – indeed! ---
**Author:** ![JKellyMap](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/jkellymap/32/15880_2.png) [@JKellyMap](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/JKellyMap)\ **Post date:** [September 18, 2024, 9:20pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-can-donald-trump-win-at-this-point/1005351/2205 "2024-09-18T21:20:38Z")
> [@DrDeth](#): > > Do you mean that Lake is not doing as well in the Polls as trump is in that state? Yup, that’s the generally accepted meaning of “running ahead” (a rather new term to me, too). ---
**Author:** ![DSeid](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/dseid/32/20194_2.png) [@DSeid](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DSeid)\ **Post date:** [September 18, 2024, 9:50pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-can-donald-trump-win-at-this-point/1005351/2206 "2024-09-18T21:50:34Z")
Yeah but. The way I’ve seen the concept applied before was in concern with Biden, that he was running behind the down ballot candidates, this was likely to act as a drag on them. In this PA case it is Harris running well ahead of this specific down ballot race. I think the downward drag is not generally thought of going in the other direction. Are house races running more R than expected there? ---
**Author:** ![bordelond](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/bordelond/32/150_2.png) [@bordelond](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/bordelond)\ **Post date:** [September 18, 2024, 10:18pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-can-donald-trump-win-at-this-point/1005351/2207 "2024-09-18T22:18:26Z")
> [@bordelond](#): > > Check that – **[629/1,000 trials right this second](https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2024-election-forecast/)**. > > Getting to be one heck of a warped coin. Thing probably looks like a little metal Pringle. But … _Still a Coin Flip!!!TM_ 638/1,000 now (same link). That was a heckuva lot of movement for one day. _Still a Coin Flip!!!TM_ ---
**Author:** ![squidfood](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/a87d85/32.png) [@squidfood](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/squidfood)\ **Post date:** [September 18, 2024, 10:41pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-can-donald-trump-win-at-this-point/1005351/2208 "2024-09-18T22:41:18Z")
> [@bordelond](#): > > That was a heckuva lot of movement for one day. _Still a Coin Flip!!!TM_ At a glance, it’s all from that Quinnipiac Harris +6 poll of PA. As PA probabilities go so go the election probabilities. _edit_: not entirely PA, the Quinnipiac numbers included a healthy +5 for MI (Mainly I noticed that PA and MI on their map shifted from purple to slightly bluish). ---
**Author:** ![DigitalC](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/ebca7d/32.png) [@DigitalC](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DigitalC)\ **Post date:** [September 18, 2024, 11:33pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-can-donald-trump-win-at-this-point/1005351/2209 "2024-09-18T23:33:35Z")
> [@veryfrank](#): > > Pedant piping up again (sorry): “60% of the time, it works all the time.” Extra pedant piping, it’s “60% of the time it works every time”. ---
**Author:** ![Aeschines](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/aeschines/32/16251_2.png) [@Aeschines](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Aeschines)\ **Post date:** [September 19, 2024, 12:14am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-can-donald-trump-win-at-this-point/1005351/2210 "2024-09-19T00:14:49Z")
Those are some pretty tasty polling numbers. And that could put Trump in more of a panic, driving more of the self/campaign-destructive behavior. Let it be so. ---
**Author:** ![PhillyGuy](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/p/ed655f/32.png) [@PhillyGuy](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/PhillyGuy)\ **Post date:** [September 19, 2024, 12:33am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-can-donald-trump-win-at-this-point/1005351/2211 "2024-09-19T00:33:48Z")
> [@Aeschines](#): > > And that could put Trump in more of a panic, driving more of the self/campaign-destructive behavior. It is tempting to say that he hit a new low with the unfounded attacks on Haitian immigrants. But then I look back and think – is it really worse than what got him elected in 2016? No. The reason Kamala Harris is improving in the polls isn’t Trump continuing to be Trumpy,. but rather Harris winning over voters who did not know much about her until quite recently. Donald is going to spend the next 47 days trying to draw attention to himself in hope voters will forget they liked Harris for a bit. That’s not self-destructive. It is going with the only route to possible victory he still has. ---
**Author:** ![Aeschines](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/aeschines/32/16251_2.png) [@Aeschines](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Aeschines)\ **Post date:** [September 19, 2024, 1:13am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-can-donald-trump-win-at-this-point/1005351/2212 "2024-09-19T01:13:53Z")
> [@PhillyGuy](#): > > It is tempting to say that he hit a new low with the unfounded attacks on Haitian immigrants. But then I look back and think – is it really worse than what got him elected in 2016? No. I think he’s worse than in 2016. It’s just that he’s had to go for bigger and bigger shocks in order to achieve the same effect, as the masses have become inured to them. The attack on Springfield is just that–an actual attack. In a lot of countries, he’d be in jail pending arraignment and trial for hate speech and incitement to violence right now (I don’t think hate speech crimes in general are a good idea, but Trump is doing his best to change my mind…). In theory, he and Vance could be charged in the US as well for inciting the actual bomb threats and other threats that have occurred. It’s just that bad. > [@](#): > > The reason Kamala Harris is improving in the polls isn’t Trump continuing to be Trumpy,. but rather Harris winning over voters who did not know much about her until quite recently. I think it’s both, and I think it’s interactive. Harris caught fire very quickly, which was exceptional (though I had supported her potential on this board about a year ago when many were doubters). At the same time, there is always the process of appealing to voters who are new to voting (i.e., young people) and those who pay less attention to politics, etc. But Trump has also reacted to this process in his typical negative and self-destructive way (that is, he’s always negative but adds in self-destruction when he’s losing). So while Trump is always Trumpy, loser Trump gets _very_ losery, and that hurts him a lot. > [@](#): > > Donald is going to spend the next 47 days trying to draw attention to himself in hope voters will forget they liked Harris for a bit. That’s not self-destructive. It is going with the only route to possible victory he still has. Well, I think you’ve basically got it right. I don’t even know if the campaign has sat everyone down and determined a strategy–I’m more inclined to think it’s organic based on the execrable characters of Trump and Vance. But they are going full fascist, full fear-based, and full racist, content to foment actual racial violence in a Midwestern state if that helps get them elected. Is that a winning strategy? I think the simple answer is: nope. These dickheads are going to lose and have bad futures. ---
**Author:** ![Disinfectus](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/disinfectus/32/11085_2.png) [@Disinfectus](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Disinfectus)\ **Post date:** [September 19, 2024, 1:20am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-can-donald-trump-win-at-this-point/1005351/2213 "2024-09-19T01:20:48Z")
Lest we not forget that Florida has over a half-million Haitians. That cannot be good for Trump. ---
**Author:** ![DrDeth](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/b487fb/32.png) [@DrDeth](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DrDeth)\ **Post date:** [September 19, 2024, 1:23am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-can-donald-trump-win-at-this-point/1005351/2214 "2024-09-19T01:23:37Z")
> [@JKellyMap](#): > > Yup, that’s the generally accepted meaning of “running ahead” (a rather new term to me, too). Dont be sarcastic. trump isnt running against Lake, and there were other ambiguities, so i asked THAT POSTER (not you) to clarify what they meant. > [@Disinfectus](#): > > Lest we not forget that Florida has over a half-million Haitians. That cannot be good for Trump. Not to mention- pot and abortion are on the ballot. People who might not otherwise vote might come out to legalize pot and abortion. ---
**Author:** ![Aeschines](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/aeschines/32/16251_2.png) [@Aeschines](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Aeschines)\ **Post date:** [September 19, 2024, 1:38am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-can-donald-trump-win-at-this-point/1005351/2215 "2024-09-19T01:38:32Z")
Yeah, Trump is barely ahead in FL, and there are several factors that are not in his favor. But there’s golf to be played… in FL of all places! ---
**Author:** ![Railer13](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/railer13/32/9742_2.png) [@Railer13](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Railer13)\ **Post date:** [September 19, 2024, 1:42am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-can-donald-trump-win-at-this-point/1005351/2216 "2024-09-19T01:42:23Z")
> [@Disinfectus](#): > > Lest we not forget that Florida has over a half-million Haitians. Is it known how many of these half-million are 1) citizens and 2) registered to vote? Not being snarky, but genuinely curious. ---
**Author:** ![Disinfectus](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/disinfectus/32/11085_2.png) [@Disinfectus](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Disinfectus)\ **Post date:** [September 19, 2024, 1:45am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-can-donald-trump-win-at-this-point/1005351/2217 "2024-09-19T01:45:02Z")
> [@Railer13](#): > > Is it known how many of these half-million are 1) citizens and 2) registered to vote? > > Not being snarky, but genuinely curious I honestly don’t know, but every little bit helps and I expect Florida to be closer this time around, compared to Trump winning by 377,000 votes last time, especially considered the other things that are on the ballot [(abortion access and marijuana](https://thehill.com/policy/healthcare/4879590-florida-abortion-marijuana-ballot-measures/)). > Polls have tightened in the battle between former [President Trump](https://thehill.com/people/donald-trump/)and [Vice President Harris,](https://thehill.com/people/kamala-harris/) and in the Senate race between GOP Sen. [Rick Scott](https://thehill.com/people/rick-scott/)and former Rep. [Debbie Mucarsel-Powell](https://thehill.com/people/debbie-mucarsel-powell/)(D). The abortion and marijuana measures could bring more Democratic-leaning voters to the polls. ---
**Author:** ![Railer13](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/railer13/32/9742_2.png) [@Railer13](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Railer13)\ **Post date:** [September 19, 2024, 1:48am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-can-donald-trump-win-at-this-point/1005351/2218 "2024-09-19T01:48:26Z")
> [@Disinfectus](#): > > every little bit helps and I expect Florida to be closer this time around Totally agree. And hope for the best. ---
**Author:** ![Aeschines](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/aeschines/32/16251_2.png) [@Aeschines](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Aeschines)\ **Post date:** [September 19, 2024, 2:24am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-can-donald-trump-win-at-this-point/1005351/2219 "2024-09-19T02:24:35Z")
OUCH. This article is pretty much the definition of “shade”: > **[This Is What a Losing Campaign Looks Like](https://www.theatlantic.com/politics/archive/2024/09/trump-vance-x-campaign-losing/679924/)** > > How does Donald Trump’s running mate have so much time on his hands? The stink of death and decomposition is coming over the Trump-Vance debacle, and it really couldn’t happen to more odious people. ---
**Author:** ![Kolak\_of\_Twilo](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/kolak_of_twilo/32/73_2.png) [@Kolak\_of\_Twilo](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Kolak_of_Twilo)\ **Post date:** [September 19, 2024, 2:31am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-can-donald-trump-win-at-this-point/1005351/2220 "2024-09-19T02:31:13Z")
Any chance of a gift link? Articles in The Atlantic are never accessible. ---
**Author:** ![Aeschines](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/aeschines/32/16251_2.png) [@Aeschines](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Aeschines)\ **Post date:** [September 19, 2024, 2:36am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-can-donald-trump-win-at-this-point/1005351/2221 "2024-09-19T02:36:59Z")
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