# How can Donald Trump win at this point? **URL:** \ **Category:** Politics & Elections\ **Tags:** trump, kamala-harris\ **Created:** [August 6, 2024, 9:13pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-can-donald-trump-win-at-this-point/1005351 "2024-08-06T21:13:43Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 112
**Author:** ![DSeid](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/dseid/32/20194_2.png) [@DSeid](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DSeid)\ **Post date:** [September 19, 2024, 2:39am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-can-donald-trump-win-at-this-point/1005351/2222 "2024-09-19T02:39:29Z")
[Apparently](https://www.latimes.com/politics/story/2024-09-13/2024-election-trump-haitian-comments-florida) they add up to about 1% of FL voters … but they seem to already mostly vote D. ---
**Author:** ![JKellyMap](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/jkellymap/32/15880_2.png) [@JKellyMap](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/JKellyMap)\ **Post date:** [September 19, 2024, 2:45am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-can-donald-trump-win-at-this-point/1005351/2223 "2024-09-19T02:45:00Z")
> [@DrDeth](#): > > Dont be sarcastic. trump isnt running against Lake, and there were other ambiguities, so i asked THAT POSTER (not you) to clarify what they meant. I was sincerely being nice about your not knowing this phrase. And any of us are free to help another by defining a standard phrase used by a third Doper. We don’t intervene to presume to know another’s _opinon_, but for a simple definition or other point of fact, there’s no reason to wait for the original poster. ---
**Author:** ![bordelond](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/bordelond/32/150_2.png) [@bordelond](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/bordelond)\ **Post date:** [September 19, 2024, 3:07am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-can-donald-trump-win-at-this-point/1005351/2224 "2024-09-19T03:07:03Z")
> [@bordelond](#): > > > [@bordelond](#): > > > > Check that – **[629/1,000 trials right this second](https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2024-election-forecast/)**. > > > > Getting to be one heck of a warped coin. Thing probably looks like a little metal Pringle. But … _Still a Coin Flip!!!TM_ > > 638/1,000 now (same link). That was a heckuva lot of movement for one day. _Still a Coin Flip!!!TM_ 641/1,000. Morris is apparently re-running the trials several times a day now. ---
**Author:** ![DrDeth](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/b487fb/32.png) [@DrDeth](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DrDeth)\ **Post date:** [September 19, 2024, 4:24am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-can-donald-trump-win-at-this-point/1005351/2225 "2024-09-19T04:24:01Z")
> [@JKellyMap](#): > > I was sincerely being nice about your not knowing this phrase. I knew what the phrase was, but it didnt make sense in light of his post. ---
**Author:** ![Robot\_Arm](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/robot_arm/32/18280_2.png) [@Robot\_Arm](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Robot_Arm)\ **Post date:** [September 19, 2024, 6:17am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-can-donald-trump-win-at-this-point/1005351/2226 "2024-09-19T06:17:28Z")
> [@DrDeth](#): > > Not to mention- pot and abortion are on the ballot. People who might not otherwise vote might come out to legalize pot and abortion. Any way to get rock and roll on the ballot; 'cause I think that would help seal the deal. ---
**Author:** ![TeroSunbear](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/terosunbear/32/14748_2.png) [@TeroSunbear](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/TeroSunbear)\ **Post date:** [September 19, 2024, 11:43am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-can-donald-trump-win-at-this-point/1005351/2227 "2024-09-19T11:43:47Z")
Despite one poll more tied, Wisconsin is not winnable now. [Harris vs. Trump Wisconsin polls - The Hill and DDHQ](https://elections2024.thehill.com/wisconsin/harris-trump-wisconsin/) Compared to the same people graphing PA, still close. Trump can win this election only with PA. [Harris vs. Trump Pennsylvania polls - The Hill and DDHQ](https://elections2024.thehill.com/pennsylvania/harris-trump-pennsylvania/) ---
**Author:** ![DSeid](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/dseid/32/20194_2.png) [@DSeid](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DSeid)\ **Post date:** [September 19, 2024, 12:30pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-can-donald-trump-win-at-this-point/1005351/2228 "2024-09-19T12:30:14Z")
> [@TeroSunbear](#): > > Wisconsin is not winnable now. You do remember that Wisconsin polling has been off by 5 and 9 points Trumpward the last two presidential cycles? Oh sure it could be off the other direction instead this time, but “not winnable”?? ---
**Author:** ![JKellyMap](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/jkellymap/32/15880_2.png) [@JKellyMap](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/JKellyMap)\ **Post date:** [September 19, 2024, 12:39pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-can-donald-trump-win-at-this-point/1005351/2229 "2024-09-19T12:39:59Z")
Worse than that, polling by a highly regarded and well conducted polling outfit — Quinnipiac — shows Trump only 1% behind in Wisconsin now. A tie, in other words. Funny how, over these couple of months, we keep shifting among WI, MI, and PA as to the softest (most worrisome) of the Big 3 for Harris. It must make it challenging for the campaign to plan ad buys and rallies. > [@Robot\_Arm](#): > > Any way to get rock and roll on the ballot; 'cause I think that would help seal the deal. Ha! > [@DrDeth](#): > > I knew what the phrase was, but it didnt make sense in light of his post. Got it. My mistake. (And, I can see how my post could be misconstrued as sarcasm. Perils of text-based communications.) ---
**Author:** ![madmonk28](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/madmonk28/32/20811_2.png) [@madmonk28](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/madmonk28)\ **Post date:** [September 19, 2024, 12:43pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-can-donald-trump-win-at-this-point/1005351/2230 "2024-09-19T12:43:20Z")
Pennsylvania is tied according to Washington Post poll (gift link). [https://wapo.st/4d77kT6](https://wapo.st/4d77kT6) ---
**Author:** ![TeroSunbear](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/terosunbear/32/14748_2.png) [@TeroSunbear](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/TeroSunbear)\ **Post date:** [September 19, 2024, 1:18pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-can-donald-trump-win-at-this-point/1005351/2231 "2024-09-19T13:18:25Z")
Wisconsin is a Democrat leaning state, unlike Iowa for example. It is only through gerrymandering etc that GOp holds power, They have one senator. But the people in Madison have been quite active for four years. No Trump alternative electors will enter the capitol. So, in my opinion, Wisconsin is no longer winnable for Trump. He brought nothing at all to Wisconsin in his 4 year term. ---
**Author:** ![Jas09](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/j/d07c76/32.png) [@Jas09](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Jas09)\ **Post date:** [September 19, 2024, 1:44pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-can-donald-trump-win-at-this-point/1005351/2232 "2024-09-19T13:44:07Z")
> [@TeroSunbear](#): > > So, in my opinion, Wisconsin is no longer winnable for Trump. This doesn’t make any sense. He won it in 2016 and almost won it in 2020. Polls indicate he is competitive there in 2024 - more so than in either of those years. WI is very much in play. In general, this whole thread feels like whistling past the graveyard. If it’s not extremely close on Election Day I will be gobsmacked. ---
**Author:** ![LSLGuy](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/lslguy/32/5813_2.png) [@LSLGuy](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/LSLGuy)\ **Post date:** [September 19, 2024, 1:50pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-can-donald-trump-win-at-this-point/1005351/2233 "2024-09-19T13:50:19Z")
> [@DSeid](#): > > [Apparently](https://www.latimes.com/politics/story/2024-09-13/2024-election-trump-haitian-comments-florida) they add up to about 1% of FL voters … but they seem to already mostly vote D. Ref the several posters asking about Florida Haitians I’ll quote this comment I posted in the Springfield-related thread: > [@The stupid rumors about Springfield Haitians](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-stupid-rumors-about-springfield-haitians/1007210/198): > > I’m generic native-born US white. My GF is Afro-Caribbean. So are many of her friends and co-workers. Miami is like that. > > All of them are nervously eyeing which island to flee to if the shit really hits the fan in the USA. In some cases their home island isn’t a good idea, so they’re searching out extended family elsewhere, etc. The Afro-Americans without a recent immigrant connection are feeling sort of cornered, with no safe place to escape to. If these folks, Haitian or otherwise, are able to vote, they will. And they’re voting D. Lots and lots of Afro-[whatever] are second generation, where Mom & Dad were immigrants but they were born here. Lots more have been naturalized US citizens for most of their lives. They’re scared and they’re motivated. ---
**Author:** ![TeroSunbear](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/terosunbear/32/14748_2.png) [@TeroSunbear](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/TeroSunbear)\ **Post date:** [September 19, 2024, 1:55pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-can-donald-trump-win-at-this-point/1005351/2234 "2024-09-19T13:55:16Z")
“Does not make sense” how? I lived in Wisconsin 5 years. it’s not Iowa, it’s more like Minnesota. For the past 15 years Foxnews has shaped a lot of rural areas, but still has not changed the culture of places like Wisconsin. ---
**Author:** ![madmonk28](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/madmonk28/32/20811_2.png) [@madmonk28](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/madmonk28)\ **Post date:** [September 19, 2024, 1:57pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-can-donald-trump-win-at-this-point/1005351/2235 "2024-09-19T13:57:14Z")
It doesn’t make sense because the polls show it as close. He has won Wisconsin before. I don’t see anything but wishful thinking to say it’s not in play now. ---
**Author:** ![DigitalC](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/ebca7d/32.png) [@DigitalC](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DigitalC)\ **Post date:** [September 19, 2024, 2:10pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-can-donald-trump-win-at-this-point/1005351/2236 "2024-09-19T14:10:14Z")
> [@Aeschines](#): > > And that could put Trump in more of a panic, driving more of the self/campaign-destructive behavior. I am quite certain they don’t even show him bad poll numbers. All he is getting is a steady diet of Rasmussen and other pro GOP pollsters. ---
**Author:** ![Irishman](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/i/b487fb/32.png) [@Irishman](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Irishman)\ **Post date:** [September 19, 2024, 2:12pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-can-donald-trump-win-at-this-point/1005351/2237 "2024-09-19T14:12:33Z")
I don’t think we can call the election now based on polls. I think even the best polling is suspect due to selection bias in respondents and gathering enough representatives of all groups to adequately represent them. Polls can only show trends, the cannot predict the outcome. They cannot account for various factors that affect voter participation and turnout. I think the results of the polls and models are a source for optimism and hope, but not a justification that Trump cannot win. If the gap were substantial, the state wouldn’t be a battleground state. The fact that it is in question means the outcome is not given, and no amount of polling can change that. ---
**Author:** ![Jas09](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/j/d07c76/32.png) [@Jas09](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Jas09)\ **Post date:** [September 19, 2024, 2:13pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-can-donald-trump-win-at-this-point/1005351/2238 "2024-09-19T14:13:13Z")
It’s like seeing a baseball team split the first two games of a series, be tied 1-1 in the 7th and say “no way the road team can win”. It flies in the face of all the evidence we have. ---
**Author:** ![bordelond](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/bordelond/32/150_2.png) [@bordelond](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/bordelond)\ **Post date:** [September 19, 2024, 2:14pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-can-donald-trump-win-at-this-point/1005351/2239 "2024-09-19T14:14:11Z")
> [@PhillyGuy](#): > > The reason Kamala Harris is improving in the polls isn’t Trump continuing to be Trumpy,. but rather Harris winning over voters who did not know much about her until quite recently. **Donald is going to spend the next 47 days trying to draw attention to himself _in hope voters will forget they liked Harris for a bit_.** _(my emphasis)_ How does the bolded even work? Personal commitment to support Harris is only _very rarely_ some hazy, ephemeral thing that can be reversed by Trump or Vance’s shameless appeals for attention. It beggars belief that “_doing more crazy shit!_” draws any likely Harris voters towards Trump. Forget they liked Harris? If they’re truly that wishy-washy, Trump’s likely got 'em already. ---
**Author:** ![Great\_Antibob](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/g/e47c2d/32.png) [@Great\_Antibob](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Great_Antibob)\ **Post date:** [September 19, 2024, 2:15pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-can-donald-trump-win-at-this-point/1005351/2240 "2024-09-19T14:15:15Z")
> [@DigitalC](#): > > I am quite certain they don’t even show him bad poll numbers. All he is getting is a steady diet of Rasmussen and other pro GOP pollsters. Wasn’t this confirmed? He’s a ‘shoot the messenger’ type. And it is well known he has staffers whose job is to give him selectively curated printouts of “good” news articles. > [@bordelond](#): > > How does the bolded even work? A lot of ego. He thinks of himself as a master salesman/negotiator. So all he needs is an opportunity to make his pitch. I see that on local TV sometimes - some local owner of a moderately big (by local standards) company (invariably a middle to older aged white gent, of course) or would-be megachurch pastor just putting himself on camera pitching his company/church thinking his sales magic will work across the camera without any gimmicks. As opposed to, ya know, not squandering any reputation through years of shady dealings and tactics. Perhaps not the greatest strategy, but history has shown Trump that he’s never really needed much more. ---
**Author:** ![bordelond](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/bordelond/32/150_2.png) [@bordelond](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/bordelond)\ **Post date:** [September 19, 2024, 2:23pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-can-donald-trump-win-at-this-point/1005351/2241 "2024-09-19T14:23:24Z")
> [@Great\_Antibob](#): > > > [@bordelond](#): > > > > How does the bolded even work? > > A lot of ego. > > He thinks of himself as a master salesman/negotiator. So all he needs is an opportunity to make his pitch. I may have misread @PhillyGuy , on second thought. I thought he was saying it was a certainty that Trump could peel off committed Harris-Walz voters by doing more crazy things and staying more firmly in the news cycle. If instead **PhillyGuy** was simply _explaining_ Trump’s mindset, then his post makes more sense. [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-can-donald-trump-win-at-this-point/1005351.md?page=111) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-can-donald-trump-win-at-this-point/1005351.md?page=113)