# How can Donald Trump win at this point? **URL:** \ **Category:** Politics & Elections\ **Tags:** trump, kamala-harris\ **Created:** [August 6, 2024, 9:13pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-can-donald-trump-win-at-this-point/1005351 "2024-08-06T21:13:43Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 115
**Author:** ![RickJay](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/bb73d2/32.png) [@RickJay](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/RickJay)\ **Post date:** [September 20, 2024, 1:19pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-can-donald-trump-win-at-this-point/1005351/2282 "2024-09-20T13:19:05Z")
> [@chappachula](#): > > This election is unique, unlike anything in all of American history. > Nobody can make a good prediction. They say that every election. 2024 is pretty similar to 2020. ---
**Author:** ![Mallard](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/b9bd4f/32.png) [@Mallard](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Mallard)\ **Post date:** [September 20, 2024, 1:45pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-can-donald-trump-win-at-this-point/1005351/2283 "2024-09-20T13:45:50Z")
> [@madmonk28](#): > > It doesn’t make sense because the polls show it as close. He has won Wisconsin before. I don’t see anything but wishful thinking to say it’s not in play now. I can’t make sense of the sunshine, lollipops & rainbows in this thread either considering any poll shows Harris ahead well within the margin of error and democrats likely also losing the senate. ---
**Author:** ![madmonk28](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/madmonk28/32/20811_2.png) [@madmonk28](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/madmonk28)\ **Post date:** [September 20, 2024, 3:28pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-can-donald-trump-win-at-this-point/1005351/2284 "2024-09-20T15:28:25Z")
> [@Mallard](#): > > I can’t make sense of the sunshine, lollipops & rainbows in this thread either considering any poll shows Harris ahead well within the margin of error and democrats likely also losing the senate. This thread should be titled “say only good things about Harris’ chances.” ---
**Author:** ![JKellyMap](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/jkellymap/32/15880_2.png) [@JKellyMap](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/JKellyMap)\ **Post date:** [September 20, 2024, 4:43pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-can-donald-trump-win-at-this-point/1005351/2285 "2024-09-20T16:43:03Z")
> [@madmonk28](#): > > This thread should be titled “say only good things about Harris’ chances.” Thank you for saying what I’d been thinking for two months and counting. Optimism and excitement are _good_, but temper them with fact-based concern. Hope for the best, but plan for the worst. Excellent free essay linked below. One of many quotes relevant to this (and several other) threads: > “If one candidate has a big lead, there’s a bit less mental strain from all of this. Harris +8 doesn’t feel that different from Harris +4, and an 85 percent probability of her winning doesn’t feel that different than 75 percent. But when the probabilities are in the vicinity of even, it can seem like you’re ping-ponging between radically different universes. A forecast showing Harris as a 55/45 favorite will be interpreted much differently from one showing Trump as a 55/45 favorite instead, even though they’re basically saying the same thing: the election is more or less a coin flip.” > **[Don't let randomness make a fool of you](https://substack.com/@natesilver/p-149102416)** > > If you care about what happens in this election, don’t sweat the polls — go vote. ---
**Author:** ![JohnGalt](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/johngalt/32/184_2.png) [@JohnGalt](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/JohnGalt)\ **Post date:** [September 20, 2024, 5:25pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-can-donald-trump-win-at-this-point/1005351/2286 "2024-09-20T17:25:33Z")
This is the scheme in the episode _Mail Order Prophet_ in the series **Alfred Hitchcock Presents** : a man (E. G. Marshall!) receives a series of letters successfully predicting future events, then the big scam at the end. It’s based on a short story originally published in 1954. There’s nothing new under the sun. > **["Alfred Hitchcock Presents" Mail Order Prophet (TV Episode 1957) ⭐ 7.8 |...](https://www.imdb.com/title/tt0508320/?ref_=ext_shr)** > > 32m | TV-14 ---
**Author:** ![Sherrerd](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/sherrerd/32/8_2.png) [@Sherrerd](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Sherrerd)\ **Post date:** [September 20, 2024, 6:13pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-can-donald-trump-win-at-this-point/1005351/2287 "2024-09-20T18:13:56Z")
> [@Aeschines](#): > > By the way, another thing we haven’t talked about is Joe Rogan _trashing_ Donald Trump and praising Kamala Harris post-debate. > [@Loach](#): > > Rogan has said he has had the opportunity to have Trump on his show but he doesn’t want to give him the forum. Speaking of betting: I would NOT bet against an October Surprise featuring Rogan inviting Trump on his show and giving him a full endorsement. Rogan may be “libertarian” rather than “MAGA,” but he’s never been in favor of Democrats, I believe. And presumably he’s as susceptible to bribery as any other human. I predict that Trump’s people will find something he wants, and give it to him. Even if Rogan said something nice about Harris’s debate performance, it would be truly shocking if he endorsed her. He’s far closer to the GOP mentality (even if not an exact match) than to Democrats. . . > [@Aeschines](#): > > “But the brownification of Amurica must not continue!”–think the fuckhead fascists. They do indeed. And there are millions of them. Look at what Trump and Vance are doing with their attacks on the Ohio migrants from Haiti: they are attacking LEGAL immigrants. (When Vance was confronted with this he defaulted to ‘well, Kamala created the programs that supposedly made them legal—therefore they are NOT legal.’) The message is clear: **if you have too-dark skin and/or speak something other than English, YOU ARE ILLEGAL.** Millions approve that message and will vote accordingly. ---
**Author:** ![Aeschines](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/aeschines/32/16251_2.png) [@Aeschines](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Aeschines)\ **Post date:** [September 20, 2024, 6:17pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-can-donald-trump-win-at-this-point/1005351/2288 "2024-09-20T18:17:54Z")
> [@Sherrerd](#): > > The message is clear: **if you have too-dark skin and/or speak something other than English, YOU ARE ILLEGAL.** Except for Vance’s own wife. Melania’s fine, though: even though she can’t speak English, she’s white. ---
**Author:** ![Sherrerd](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/sherrerd/32/8_2.png) [@Sherrerd](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Sherrerd)\ **Post date:** [September 20, 2024, 6:24pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-can-donald-trump-win-at-this-point/1005351/2289 "2024-09-20T18:24:39Z")
> [@Aeschines](#): > > Except for Vance’s own wife. Melania’s fine, though: even though she can’t speak English, she’s white. . Oh, I don’t know. Maybe Vance enjoys knowing that in the new world he’s trying to create with Trump, he can have his wife sent to a work camp any time he likes. And if we go by ‘speak English’ (only) as necessary to being a True American (and safe), then Melania will have to be on her best behavior, too. Some folks like the idea of being able to control the people in their lives to that degree. If they could vote it in, they would. ---
**Author:** ![Irishman](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/i/b487fb/32.png) [@Irishman](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Irishman)\ **Post date:** [September 20, 2024, 6:43pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-can-donald-trump-win-at-this-point/1005351/2290 "2024-09-20T18:43:00Z")
> [@Sherrerd](#): > > Rogan may be “libertarian” rather than “MAGA,” but he’s never been in favor of Democrats, I believe. I never really followed Rogan. I didn’t watch Fear Factor. But I recall him going off on an anti- government conspiracy riff. He was arguing the moon landings might have been a government hoax. RFK Jr. supporter sounds right. He may be more libertarian than MAGA, but he’s definitely a kook, and Trump is the biggest kook. He may not drop an endorsement, but I suspect he’ll vote on “the economy”, i.e. the myths about Republicans vs Democrats. ---
**Author:** ![Sherrerd](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/sherrerd/32/8_2.png) [@Sherrerd](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Sherrerd)\ **Post date:** [September 20, 2024, 6:54pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-can-donald-trump-win-at-this-point/1005351/2291 "2024-09-20T18:54:01Z")
> [@Irishman](#): > > He may not drop an endorsement, but I suspect he’ll vote on “the economy”, i.e. the myths about Republicans vs Democrats. Sadly, that’s going to be the pretext used by many, many voters. ---
**Author:** ![DrDeth](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/b487fb/32.png) [@DrDeth](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DrDeth)\ **Post date:** [September 20, 2024, 7:46pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-can-donald-trump-win-at-this-point/1005351/2292 "2024-09-20T19:46:07Z")
Simple- they will cheat- > **[Network of Georgia election officials strategizing to undermine 2024 result](https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2024/sep/18/trump-election-georgia)** > > Emails reveal Georgia Election Integrity Coalition, a group of officials and election deniers, coordinating in swing state # _Network of Georgia election officials strategizing to undermine 2024 result_ _Emails reveal Georgia Election Integrity Coalition, a group of officials and election deniers, coordinating in swing state_ _Emails obtained by the Guardian reveal a behind-the-scenes network of county election officials throughout [Georgia] coordinating on policy and messaging to both call the results of November’s election into question before a single vote is cast, and push rules and procedures favored by the election denial movement._ ---
**Author:** ![Velocity](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/velocity/32/18006_2.png) [@Velocity](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Velocity)\ **Post date:** [September 20, 2024, 8:11pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-can-donald-trump-win-at-this-point/1005351/2293 "2024-09-20T20:11:58Z")
The bad news for Trump is that Kamala is going to be so far ahead that Georgia will have no effect on the outcome. The steak has gone from medium to well done by now. If Republicans had election officials with a solid plan to undermine Michigan, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, and Iowa simultaneously…_maybe_. That being said, though - and I’m not recommending this, of course, just throwing it out there as a thought - the fact that it is already so well-known in advance that Republicans intend to raise false alarms of “election fraud!” no matter what happens on Election Day would actually give **real** vote-fraudsters a good cover. Since the Republicans have already been discredited in advance, any Republican attempt to sound the alarm over _real_ vote fraud would be perceived as a Republican-crying-wolf situation. ---
**Author:** ![Win\_Place\_Show](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/win_place_show/32/13469_2.png) [@Win\_Place\_Show](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Win_Place_Show)\ **Post date:** [September 20, 2024, 9:03pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-can-donald-trump-win-at-this-point/1005351/2294 "2024-09-20T21:03:58Z")
> [@Velocity](#): > > The bad news for Trump is that Kamala is going to be so far ahead that Georgia will have no effect on the outcome. Where does this rate on your “confidence scale” compared to [“Hillary will cruise to 358 EV’s (2016)”](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/presidential-results-prediction-thread/769319/14) and [“Biden will come close to 400 EV’s and Democrats will get the Senate 54 - 46 (2020)”](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/predictions-for-the-2020-us-presidential-election/922525/5)? Don’t get me wrong, I’d love for you to be right this time - but I’m just curious how rose-colored these glasses are that you put on every four years. And honestly, we’re kinda getting into “fool me twice” territory this go-around. ---
**Author:** ![RickJay](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/bb73d2/32.png) [@RickJay](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/RickJay)\ **Post date:** [September 20, 2024, 9:23pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-can-donald-trump-win-at-this-point/1005351/2295 "2024-09-20T21:23:32Z")
> [@Velocity](#): > > The bad news for Trump is that Kamala is going to be so far ahead that Georgia will have no effect on the outcome. The steak has gone from medium to well done by now. There is no evidence this is true. Absolutely none. What are you talking about, man? Harris is a slight favourite, maybe, but the election is really close. Why can’t people accept that? ---
**Author:** ![madmonk28](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/madmonk28/32/20811_2.png) [@madmonk28](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/madmonk28)\ **Post date:** [September 20, 2024, 9:51pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-can-donald-trump-win-at-this-point/1005351/2296 "2024-09-20T21:51:18Z")
In fact, Harris’ debate bump is starting to fade. Earlier in the week, 538 gave her a 64% chance, than 61% and today it is at 60%. It’s very tight, but she’s in a in a slightly better spot than Trump. Also, I voted early today in Virginia. ---
**Author:** ![Chingon](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/chingon/32/17645_2.png) [@Chingon](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Chingon)\ **Post date:** [September 20, 2024, 10:06pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-can-donald-trump-win-at-this-point/1005351/2297 "2024-09-20T22:06:34Z")
He knows that. He’s spreading rat poison. ---
**Author:** ![Leaper](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/l/4bbf92/32.png) [@Leaper](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Leaper)\ **Post date:** [September 20, 2024, 10:13pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-can-donald-trump-win-at-this-point/1005351/2298 "2024-09-20T22:13:09Z")
Technically, he’s not saying anything about whether the race is close or not, just that he’s confident of the outcome, and that’s not something polls can contradict (unless you’re saying that anyone predicting Trump would win in 2016 was talking out of their ass too because of the polls). The previous threads of his predictions is much more relevant to me. ---
**Author:** ![Sherrerd](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/sherrerd/32/8_2.png) [@Sherrerd](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Sherrerd)\ **Post date:** [September 21, 2024, 7:01pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-can-donald-trump-win-at-this-point/1005351/2299 "2024-09-21T19:01:32Z")
> [@Velocity](#): > > the fact that it is already so well-known in advance that Republicans intend to raise false alarms of “election fraud!” no matter what happens on Election Day would actually give **real** vote-fraudsters a good cover. **Since the Republicans have already been discredited in advance,** … (My bolding.) ONLY among _ **half** _ the population—or less. The half—or more—who _never expose themselves to mainstream news media_, have NO idea that Republican shenanigans have been observed and noted. They don’t know what Georgia officials are up to, and they will never know. No one they listen to will tell them. It’s an all-too-common error to assume that what _we_ know, everyone knows. It leads to over-confidence. ---
**Author:** ![Atamasama](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/atamasama/32/12961_2.png) [@Atamasama](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Atamasama)\ **Post date:** [September 21, 2024, 7:22pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-can-donald-trump-win-at-this-point/1005351/2300 "2024-09-21T19:22:31Z")
Let’s not forget that if ignorance wasn’t as prevalent as it is, we’d never have had a use for the Straight Dope in the first place. ---
**Author:** ![DrDeth](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/b487fb/32.png) [@DrDeth](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DrDeth)\ **Post date:** [September 21, 2024, 8:08pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-can-donald-trump-win-at-this-point/1005351/2301 "2024-09-21T20:08:42Z")
> [@Sherrerd](#): > > The half—or more—who _never expose themselves to mainstream news media_, have NO idea that Republican shenanigans have been observed and noted. Less than half. Only about 25% of Americans watch only Fox news. [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-can-donald-trump-win-at-this-point/1005351.md?page=114) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-can-donald-trump-win-at-this-point/1005351.md?page=116)