# How can Donald Trump win at this point? **URL:** \ **Category:** Politics & Elections\ **Tags:** trump, kamala-harris\ **Created:** [August 6, 2024, 9:13pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-can-donald-trump-win-at-this-point/1005351 "2024-08-06T21:13:43Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 120
**Author:** ![LSLGuy](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/lslguy/32/5813_2.png) [@LSLGuy](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/LSLGuy)\ **Post date:** [September 24, 2024, 8:06pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-can-donald-trump-win-at-this-point/1005351/2382 "2024-09-24T20:06:17Z")
What do you think the “republican party/GOP” _is_? It’s a bunch of individual people. They start out as local volunteers, work up to state, and eventually the federal level. Some are politicians, others are poli-sci majors earning a living, others are just grifters, etc. In that much at least the two parties are generally similar although the proportion of pols, experts, and grifters varies a lot. IMO the purge of any non-MAGATs from the Rs at the lower levels tells me it’ll be 15 or 20 _years_ before the first non-MAGA joins the ranks of the federal-level party insiders. The big problem the R party organization has now is that they are being driven from the outside by the fake news propaganda outfits. As long as Faux, Breitbart, etc., (or any successors to them) still exist, that is the real force setting the R agenda. And that set of entities benefits from an all rage all the time frothing populist anger that causes the populace to donate and buys merch and stay loyal to the outfits that advertise there. That commercial feedback loop involves far more money than conventional political donations. ---
**Author:** ![Cervaise](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/cervaise/32/16693_2.png) [@Cervaise](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Cervaise)\ **Post date:** [September 24, 2024, 8:13pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-can-donald-trump-win-at-this-point/1005351/2383 "2024-09-24T20:13:07Z")
> [@Al128](#): > > don’t you (general you) think that at one moment in time, the GOP will come to their senses Only if they lose and keep losing. Right now they have just over half of the governorships (27 to the Dems’ 23) and have an even better advantage in controlling state legislatures (28 to 20). They own the Supreme Court 6 to 3 and control a majority of federal benches. They will almost certainly retake the Senate in this election. They’re winning. They have no incentive to change. The only motivator for a party to reconsider and reinvent itself is its imminent demise. We can have this conversation again if that ever becomes a plausible possibility. ---
**Author:** ![velomont](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/v/8491ac/32.png) [@velomont](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/velomont)\ **Post date:** [September 24, 2024, 8:47pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-can-donald-trump-win-at-this-point/1005351/2384 "2024-09-24T20:47:46Z")
> [@Cervaise](#): > > Only if they lose and keep losing This. They had the opportunity to start the process in 2021, when they could have accepted a few terms of losing, and the loss of MAGA support (no loss there) during which they could have done some badly needed housecleaning. It looked, for a couple of days after Jan 6 that were considering it, and then they threw it all away. Now the cancer is too entrenched for it to easily be excised. ---
**Author:** ![DrDeth](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/b487fb/32.png) [@DrDeth](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DrDeth)\ **Post date:** [September 24, 2024, 8:54pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-can-donald-trump-win-at-this-point/1005351/2385 "2024-09-24T20:54:46Z")
> [@DSeid](#): > > His floor ain’t much below. Maybe 45? I think his floor is lower than that. 40%, even less maybe. > [@TheJobsGuy](#): > > Vance is not well liked, even when he was elected it was by less than 7%, and his Springfield narrative is not great, and has angered a lot of Ohioans. On that- > **[Man charged with attempted assassination of Donald Trump at Florida golf...](https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/live/2024/sep/24/biden-trump-harris-election-updates)** > > Ryan Routh’s trial will be overseen by Judge Aileen Cannon, reports say, the Trump appointee who threw out federal classified documents case ## Haitian group in Springfield, Ohio, files criminal charges against Trump and Vance _The leader of the Haitian Bridge Alliance, a non-profit that represents the Haitian community of Springfield, Ohio, has filed criminal charges against **Donald Trump** and **JD Vance** on behalf of the group, according to an [announcement](https://www.chandralaw.com/blog/criminal-charges-filed-against-trump-and-vance-for-springfield-ohio-conduct-arrests-sought) from the law firm representing them._ _The group is charging the former president and Republican nominee for president, and his running mate and Ohio senator, with disrupting public service, making false alarms, committing telecommunications harassment, committing aggravated menacing and violating the prohibition against complicity per the [press release](https://www.chandralaw.com/blog/criminal-charges-filed-against-trump-and-vance-for-springfield-ohio-conduct-arrests-sought)._ _[The Associated Press](https://apnews.com/article/haitian-immigrants-springfield-charges-trump-vance-012af00a8677da5caed55d03e8779774) is reporting that the group has invoked its private-citizen right to file the charges in the wake of inaction_ Weird, the cite changed- here is another- > **[Haitian Group Seeks Arrest Of Trump, Vance Over False Claims About Migrants](https://www.forbes.com/sites/mollybohannon/2024/09/24/haitian-group-files-criminal-charges-against-trump-and-vance-urges-arrest-warrants-for-spreading-false-claims/)** > > The Haitian Bridge Alliance alleges in the charges that “if anyone else had done what they have done, to the devastating effect experienced in Springfield,” charges would have already been filed. ---
**Author:** ![Akaj](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/akaj/32/145_2.png) [@Akaj](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Akaj)\ **Post date:** [September 24, 2024, 9:37pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-can-donald-trump-win-at-this-point/1005351/2386 "2024-09-24T21:37:33Z")
> [@DrDeth](#): > > Haitian group in Springfield, Ohio, files criminal charges against Trump and Vance I love it! Is this basically a stunt, or does it stand a chance of gaining traction? Any Doper legal eagles want to weigh in? ---
**Author:** ![Czarcasm](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/czarcasm/32/4050_2.png) [@Czarcasm](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Czarcasm)\ **Post date:** [September 24, 2024, 11:04pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-can-donald-trump-win-at-this-point/1005351/2387 "2024-09-24T23:04:52Z")
I think I saw one of those just this morning near Long Beach, Washington. ---
**Author:** ![PhillyGuy](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/p/ed655f/32.png) [@PhillyGuy](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/PhillyGuy)\ **Post date:** [September 25, 2024, 12:17am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-can-donald-trump-win-at-this-point/1005351/2388 "2024-09-25T00:17:16Z")
EDIT: Will make new thread on Ohio hate speech case against Trump, if not already existing ---
**Author:** ![Irishman](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/i/b487fb/32.png) [@Irishman](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Irishman)\ **Post date:** [September 25, 2024, 12:55am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-can-donald-trump-win-at-this-point/1005351/2389 "2024-09-25T00:55:45Z")
CNN was discussing the latest poll results and letting the talking heads pontificate. The summary was that Trump is viewed negatively on personality and women’s rights, but favored on the economy and immigration. Shocker that. Anyway, the take away was that if Trump could show self discipline and stay on message about the economy, especially pocketbook issues, that’s how he could win. So good news for Harris? We really need some widespread info dispersal about prices and wages and whose plan will really benefit people. Because too many people are looking too shallowly and taking the myths as their guide, not reality. The final recommendation to each candidate for them to win was that Trump needs to talk less and Harris needs to talk more. Trump is wildly bizarre and distracts himself from his own message, and trying to connect with women in the wake of abortion bans he sounds totally out of it. “I’ll take care of women. Women won’t be thinking about abortion anymore.” Harris needs to talk more, and she needs to do it with less talking points and more improv. Her ability to connect emotionally with people is there, but her cookie cutter lead ins to topics rob her of the appearance of sincerity. ---
**Author:** ![Atamasama](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/atamasama/32/12961_2.png) [@Atamasama](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Atamasama)\ **Post date:** [September 25, 2024, 1:08am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-can-donald-trump-win-at-this-point/1005351/2390 "2024-09-25T01:08:59Z")
> [@PhillyGuy](#): > > Will make new thread on Ohio hate speech case against Trump, if not already existing I think you can post in this thread already in P&E: > [@Springfield, OH immigrants: what's the actual story?](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/springfield-oh-immigrants-whats-the-actual-story/1007220/): > > Let’s take it as a given that illegal Haitian immigrants are not eating pets in Springfield. But what actually is happening? I have heard nothing about this in the news until it came up in the debate. So how many Haitians are there in Springfield? How and why did they come there? The case has already been mentioned in that thread, so I think commenting on it is fair game (in my opinion). ---
**Author:** ![Odesio](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/odesio/32/20003_2.png) [@Odesio](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Odesio)\ **Post date:** [September 25, 2024, 1:27am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-can-donald-trump-win-at-this-point/1005351/2391 "2024-09-25T01:27:07Z")
I haven’t seen as many Trump signs at homes or businesses in Arkansas but I’m vacationing in Colorado. I saw tons of Trump signs passing through Oklahoma and one “Biden is Tyranny” sign. Here in the Lake City/Creede area of Colorado I’ve seen quite a few as well. My favorite was an American flag with Trump superimposed on it with “I’ll be back” written on it. I’m not sure why that’s considered a respectable thing to do with the flag, but praising the cult leader over all other considerations is par for the course. ---
**Author:** ![Great\_Antibob](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/g/e47c2d/32.png) [@Great\_Antibob](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Great_Antibob)\ **Post date:** [September 25, 2024, 1:43am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-can-donald-trump-win-at-this-point/1005351/2392 "2024-09-25T01:43:53Z")
> [@Irishman](#): > > Anyway, the take away was that if Trump could show self discipline and stay on message about the economy, especially pocketbook issues, that’s how he could win. What a facile, asinine analysis by those talking heads. If Trump was the sort to have self-discipline in the first place, he never would have been half as popular as he is with his base. His lack of discipline was one of his biggest selling points early on. Still is. His outbursts and feigned tough-guy act is what the MAGA crowd finds attractive and wishes they could get away with themselves. ---
**Author:** ![PhillyGuy](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/p/ed655f/32.png) [@PhillyGuy](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/PhillyGuy)\ **Post date:** [September 25, 2024, 2:27am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-can-donald-trump-win-at-this-point/1005351/2393 "2024-09-25T02:27:39Z")
Democrats who don’t want to be depressed should avoid this: > **[2024 Election Environment Favorable to GOP](https://news.gallup.com/poll/651092/2024-election-environment-favorable-gop.aspx)** > > Most key measures of the political environment for the 2024 election favor the Republican Party over the Democratic Party. > [@](#): > > Nearly all Gallup measures that have shown some relationship to past presidential election outcomes or that speak to current perceptions of the two major parties favor the Republican Party over the Democratic Party. . . . > > The top issues Americans currently name as the [most important](https://news.gallup.com/poll/1675/Most-Important-Problem.aspx) are ones that tend to favor the GOP, including the economy (24%), immigration (22%), the government (17%) and inflation (15%). My link shows that the Democrats are in trouble on issues. But the GOP may still lose the presidency due to the Democratic advantage in candidate quality. ---
**Author:** ![Atamasama](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/atamasama/32/12961_2.png) [@Atamasama](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Atamasama)\ **Post date:** [September 25, 2024, 3:17am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-can-donald-trump-win-at-this-point/1005351/2394 "2024-09-25T03:17:29Z")
> [@Great\_Antibob](#): > > If Trump was the sort to have self-discipline in the first place, he never would have been half as popular as he is with his base. You might as well say, “If Trump was a young gay Black woman he’d appeal to voters more.” You can’t wave a magic wand and transform him into the opposite of everything he is. And as you say, he has succeeded because he’s **not** those things. ---
**Author:** ![Aeschines](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/aeschines/32/16251_2.png) [@Aeschines](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Aeschines)\ **Post date:** [September 25, 2024, 4:45am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-can-donald-trump-win-at-this-point/1005351/2395 "2024-09-25T04:45:36Z")
> [@Great\_Antibob](#): > > His lack of discipline was one of his biggest selling points early on. Still is. His outbursts and feigned tough-guy act is what the MAGA crowd finds attractive and wishes they could get away with themselves. Verily, you are wise. It was once said that Newt Gingrich was a stupid person’s idea of a smart politician. Trump is a fucking idiot’s idea of a Great Leader. ---
**Author:** ![Loach](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/loach/32/350_2.png) [@Loach](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Loach)\ **Post date:** [September 25, 2024, 5:04am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-can-donald-trump-win-at-this-point/1005351/2396 "2024-09-25T05:04:24Z")
> [@madmonk28](#): > > > [@OldOlds](#): > > > > But I’m surprised at how little of that incoherence seems to come across in the mainstream media coverage. It’s almost like, having enabled him in the past, they’re ignoring him now. And now is when maybe everyone needs to hear more of the Trump we saw in the debate. > > I’ve seen it referred to as sanewashing. > > [https://link.motherjones.com/public/36678690](https://link.motherjones.com/public/36678690) > > [Is the press ‘sanewashing’ Trump? - Columbia Journalism Review](https://www.cjr.org/the_media_today/trump_incoherent_media_sanewashing.php) There is definitely some of that going on. But three out of four late night talk shows (with the Tonight Show being relatively neutral) hammer Trump nightly on every stupid thing and crazy thing he says. They aren’t news media but they are mainstream media. > [@Atamasama](#): > > > [@Happy\_Lendervedder](#): > > > > Now, I suppose they could be true believers, but I suspect they’re there for the dough. > > Eh, I’m guessing it’s bootleg stuff and Trump won’t get a dime, so more power to them I suppose. That’s my guess too. There is an former chiropractor office near here that is now a Trump bootleg merch store. I’m not going to waste my time going in and seeing who is running it. Even here where he is not going to win the cult members like having their flags. ---
**Author:** ![JKellyMap](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/jkellymap/32/15880_2.png) [@JKellyMap](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/JKellyMap)\ **Post date:** [September 25, 2024, 11:14am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-can-donald-trump-win-at-this-point/1005351/2397 "2024-09-25T11:14:31Z")
> [@Irishman](#): > > Harris needs to talk more, and she needs to do it with less talking points and more improv. > > Her ability to connect emotionally with people is there, but her cookie cutter lead ins to topics rob her of the appearance of sincerity. Well said. ---
**Author:** ![flurb](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/f/51bf81/32.png) [@flurb](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/flurb)\ **Post date:** [September 25, 2024, 11:44am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-can-donald-trump-win-at-this-point/1005351/2398 "2024-09-25T11:44:51Z")
> [@Irishman](#): > > Harris needs to talk more, and she needs to do it with less talking points and more improv. > > Her ability to connect emotionally with people is there, but her cookie cutter lead ins to topics rob her of the appearance of sincerity. Just as with Trump, with Harris I think we need to accept that who she’s showing us is who she is. She’s not the kind of politician who feels comfortable or does particularly well when she’s off her talking points. And she’s not a Bill Clinton who feeds off engaging with people and can make them genuinely believe that she feels their pain. Rather than try to awkwardly pretend to be someone she isn’t, she should continue leaning into her strengths – prosecuting the case for why four more years of Trump would be a disaster for America. ---
**Author:** ![madmonk28](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/madmonk28/32/20811_2.png) [@madmonk28](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/madmonk28)\ **Post date:** [September 25, 2024, 12:26pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-can-donald-trump-win-at-this-point/1005351/2399 "2024-09-25T12:26:18Z")
Harris and Hilary both got to where they are by working hard and by being prepared. As a prosecutor, I’m sure she was meticulous. I agree that for her to try to be more spontaneous, she would look insincere. ---
**Author:** ![PhillyGuy](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/p/ed655f/32.png) [@PhillyGuy](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/PhillyGuy)\ **Post date:** [September 25, 2024, 12:48pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-can-donald-trump-win-at-this-point/1005351/2400 "2024-09-25T12:48:05Z")
To highlight some of the why-Trump-can-win in my last post, [Gallup says:](https://news.gallup.com/poll/651092/2024-election-environment-favorable-gop.aspx) > [@](#): > > Preference for government activity > 55% do less > 41% do more > > Party better able to keep America safe from international threats > Republican Party 54% > Democratic Party 40% Gallup says these two questions are historically weak predictors of presidential election outcome, and the Democratic Party is a mere 3 to 5 points behind on their strong predictors. But if Americans mostly think that idle threats, blustering, and groveling are a safer bet than alliances and diplomacy — as it seems from this — Trump can win. ---
**Author:** ![Irishman](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/i/b487fb/32.png) [@Irishman](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Irishman)\ **Post date:** [September 25, 2024, 2:09pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-can-donald-trump-win-at-this-point/1005351/2401 "2024-09-25T14:09:54Z")
> [@Great\_Antibob](#): > > If Trump was the sort to have self-discipline in the first place, he never would have been half as popular as he is with his base. They’re recommendation is how to reach outside his base. He needs to shore up support from the non-rabid folks in the middle. Yes, I thought the remarks were obvious and shallow. My mentioning it was to say “If Trump could shut up” is like saying “If horses could fly”. It ain’t happening. > [@flurb](#): > > She’s not the kind of politician who feels comfortable or does particularly well when she’s off her talking points. And she’s not a Bill Clinton who feeds off engaging with people and can make them genuinely believe that she feels their pain. I agree she isn’t comfortable like Clinton or Obama, but I think she actually does well connecting with people and their pain. Her weakness is giving policy answers in a smooth way that shows confidence in her position and knowledge. > [@PhillyGuy](#): > > But if Americans mostly think that idle threats, blustering, and groveling are a safer bet than alliances and diplomacy — as it seems from this — Trump can win. The problem is all these people aren’t answering based on Trump or Harris, they are answering based on myths of Republican vs. Democrat. Government activity means “I want let taxes due me and less intrusion on my life”. Dems are the “tax and spend” party adjective Reps are the “fiscal responsibility” party. Keep America safe from international threats is similarly distorted. [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-can-donald-trump-win-at-this-point/1005351.md?page=119) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-can-donald-trump-win-at-this-point/1005351.md?page=121)