# How can Donald Trump win at this point? **URL:** \ **Category:** Politics & Elections\ **Tags:** trump, kamala-harris\ **Created:** [August 6, 2024, 9:13pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-can-donald-trump-win-at-this-point/1005351 "2024-08-06T21:13:43Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 122
**Author:** ![enipla](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/54ee81/32.png) [@enipla](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/enipla)\ **Post date:** [September 28, 2024, 3:57pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-can-donald-trump-win-at-this-point/1005351/2422 "2024-09-28T15:57:54Z")
> [@Procrustus](#): > > This is a good vs. evil election, and it only matters which side you’re on. Yup. And as I have said, those that have supported evil, can’t admit they where wrong. So, they either like evil, or are too embarrassed by there choices to vote for good. Choosing correctly is what you/we should do. I promise not to point fingers at previous choices people have made. ---
**Author:** ![Biffster](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/biffster/32/339_2.png) [@Biffster](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Biffster)\ **Post date:** [September 28, 2024, 5:51pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-can-donald-trump-win-at-this-point/1005351/2423 "2024-09-28T17:51:55Z")
> [@suranyi](#): > > Mine are all videos of trains. All my reels are alligators, snakes and sharks. Usually coming straight at the camera. ---
**Author:** ![DrDeth](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/b487fb/32.png) [@DrDeth](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DrDeth)\ **Post date:** [September 28, 2024, 8:55pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-can-donald-trump-win-at-this-point/1005351/2424 "2024-09-28T20:55:08Z")
> [@Irishman](#): > > She just recently (last week) did both of those, and hasn’t been making the rounds with news media interviews. Are you, perhaps reading the New York Times, which is going on and on about Harris not giving interviews- because she wont give them an exclusive? I mean, to be honest trump doesnt give any interviews either. Mind you- an interview consisted of questions and answers TO THOSE QUESTIONS. Which trump doesnt give- _Reporter: What will do you to keep jobs in America?_ _Trump: I was named Michigan Man of the Year_ And here is the thing- lets say she does give the NYT that interview- that will reach 600K readers, almost all of them dedicated Democrats, in a state that is so deep blue it is indigo. So- why? Other than to appease the Publisher that is. On Oprah she reached about 90 MILLION viewers, from all states. So Harris gives enough real interviews, many times more than trump, and so _this issue is a nothing burger._ It is simply some media channels wanting more viewers/readers. ---
**Author:** ![JKellyMap](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/jkellymap/32/15880_2.png) [@JKellyMap](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/JKellyMap)\ **Post date:** [September 28, 2024, 9:10pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-can-donald-trump-win-at-this-point/1005351/2425 "2024-09-28T21:10:17Z")
I agree with everything except the idea that the NY Times readership is mainly New Yorkers. Subscribers live in all states, and 16% live outside the US. You’re right on about the left leanings of its subscribers, though – I was surprised to see that 91% of US subscribers consider themselves Democrats. That’s nuts! ---
**Author:** ![DrDeth](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/b487fb/32.png) [@DrDeth](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DrDeth)\ **Post date:** [September 28, 2024, 9:12pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-can-donald-trump-win-at-this-point/1005351/2426 "2024-09-28T21:12:03Z")
Okay, you got me on the first, but still- their readership is very blue. I dont see the point of Harris giving that interview at all. Maybe that CNN one. ---
**Author:** ![Biffster](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/biffster/32/339_2.png) [@Biffster](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Biffster)\ **Post date:** [September 28, 2024, 10:04pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-can-donald-trump-win-at-this-point/1005351/2427 "2024-09-28T22:04:01Z")
Only if Harris messes up royally, which she hasn’t so far, can Trump still win. Or if he messes with the voting mechanism, which is possible. He has yet to win the popular vote. Will that change? I don’t think so, even when he won the Electoral College in 2016. Can he win? Anything is possible, but it feels to me like his time has passed. His first win was kind of a fluke anyway. Also, where do Haitians come from? Nobody knows. [Redirecting...](https://www.facebook.com/share/v/VzCgRc8u6VYgCtMZ/?mibextid=UalRPS) ---
**Author:** ![chappachula](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/c/d2c977/32.png) [@chappachula](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/chappachula)\ **Post date:** [September 28, 2024, 10:05pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-can-donald-trump-win-at-this-point/1005351/2428 "2024-09-28T22:05:03Z")
> [@DrDeth](#): > > _Reporter: What will do you to keep jobs in America?_ > _Trump: I was named Michigan Man of the Year_ I read that as “I was named Michelin Man of the year.” And then I thought: “did Trump win an award for his fine dining, or for his fine tires?” [Sorry, mods. I’ll see myself out. But I hope somebody smiled.] ---
**Author:** ![Irishman](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/i/b487fb/32.png) [@Irishman](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Irishman)\ **Post date:** [September 28, 2024, 11:02pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-can-donald-trump-win-at-this-point/1005351/2429 "2024-09-28T23:02:42Z")
> [@DrDeth](#): > > Are you, perhaps reading the New York Times, Not at all. I don’t care about the NYT. > [@DrDeth](#): > > I mean, to be honest trump doesnt give any interviews either. Mind you- an interview consisted of questions and answers TO THOSE QUESTIONS. Of course not, but Trump isn’t the bar we should be aiming for. > [@DrDeth](#): > > So Harris gives enough real interviews, This is the argument. What interviews has she done? I count three. ---
**Author:** ![Czarcasm](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/czarcasm/32/4050_2.png) [@Czarcasm](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Czarcasm)\ **Post date:** [September 28, 2024, 11:14pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-can-donald-trump-win-at-this-point/1005351/2430 "2024-09-28T23:14:53Z")
> [@Irishman](#): > > Of course not, but Trump isn’t the bar we should be aiming for. Of _course_ Trump is the bar we should be aiming for, because Trump is who is running against her. If one side robs banks, you really shouldn’t concentrate your efforts on the side that picks the occasional pocket. ---
**Author:** ![Irishman](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/i/b487fb/32.png) [@Irishman](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Irishman)\ **Post date:** [September 28, 2024, 11:31pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-can-donald-trump-win-at-this-point/1005351/2431 "2024-09-28T23:31:19Z")
So you’re accusing Harris of being a pickpocket? That’s not very nice. ---
**Author:** ![Czarcasm](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/czarcasm/32/4050_2.png) [@Czarcasm](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Czarcasm)\ **Post date:** [September 28, 2024, 11:34pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-can-donald-trump-win-at-this-point/1005351/2432 "2024-09-28T23:34:27Z")
And that isn’t very clever. ---
**Author:** ![DrDeth](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/b487fb/32.png) [@DrDeth](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DrDeth)\ **Post date:** [September 29, 2024, 12:50am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-can-donald-trump-win-at-this-point/1005351/2433 "2024-09-29T00:50:59Z")
> [@Irishman](#): > > This is the argument. What interviews has she done? I count three. Who care how many? The NYT only. I mean, this is a weird thing “she is a bad candidate because she hasnt given what we consider the right number of interviews. Never mind her opponent has given zero, this makes _her_ bad” and I dont know what they is a bad thing and personally I dont give a damn. She is out there, doing stuff, rallies, etc. ---
**Author:** ![TeroSunbear](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/terosunbear/32/14748_2.png) [@TeroSunbear](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/TeroSunbear)\ **Post date:** [September 29, 2024, 1:41am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-can-donald-trump-win-at-this-point/1005351/2434 "2024-09-29T01:41:21Z")
One of these threads quoted Gallup as predicting a Trumpw in. Well, Gallup has not been very accurate for some time at predicting. [Gallup, Inc. - Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gallup,_Inc). ---
**Author:** ![DrDeth](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/b487fb/32.png) [@DrDeth](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DrDeth)\ **Post date:** [September 29, 2024, 2:14am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-can-donald-trump-win-at-this-point/1005351/2435 "2024-09-29T02:14:39Z")
By the media sane washing every bit of insane senile gobbledygook he spews. ---
**Author:** ![PhillyGuy](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/p/ed655f/32.png) [@PhillyGuy](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/PhillyGuy)\ **Post date:** [September 29, 2024, 2:37am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-can-donald-trump-win-at-this-point/1005351/2436 "2024-09-29T02:37:13Z")
> [@TeroSunbear](#): > > One of these threads quoted Gallup as predicting a Trumpw in. Well, Gallup has not been very accurate for some time at predicting. > [Gallup, Inc. - Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gallup,_Inc). That was me, in this thread, on September 25. [538 gives Gallup 2 1/2 stars](https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/pollster-ratings/) out of a possible 3, and ranked it as 44th out of 282 ranked pollsters. The messenger here is reasonably sound. Unless I missed it, Gallup did not exactly predict a Trump win. They did provide evidence that on the issues most salient to presidential preference – notably the economy and immigration – voters favor the GOP positions. Based on their evidence, I think that if both parties had a strong candidate, the GOP candidate would win. Fortunately, the Democrats have a strong nominee and the Republicans a weak one. So Trump can win, but it isn’t ordained. ---
**Author:** ![Dinsdale](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/97f17d/32.png) [@Dinsdale](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Dinsdale)\ **Post date:** [September 29, 2024, 11:52am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-can-donald-trump-win-at-this-point/1005351/2437 "2024-09-29T11:52:19Z")
> [@Irishman](#): > > What interviews has she done? I count three. How many interviews do presidential candidates generally give? I seriously have no idea (and personally wouldn’t watch 1 or 100.) And, as pointed out: > [@DrDeth](#): > > … Never mind her opponent has given zero, this makes _her_ bad” … ---
**Author:** ![Irishman](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/i/b487fb/32.png) [@Irishman](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Irishman)\ **Post date:** [September 29, 2024, 2:11pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-can-donald-trump-win-at-this-point/1005351/2438 "2024-09-29T14:11:27Z")
Look, I’m all in on Harris. I can’t say I know how many most candidates do or what the right number is. But even her own team is aware she doesn’t do a lot of “unscripted events”, so much do that Walz is limiting his appearances so he doesn’t make her lack stand out so much. > **[Heading into the vice presidential debate spotlight, Tim Walz is fighting...](https://amp.cnn.com/cnn/2024/09/28/politics/tim-walz-vice-president-debate)** > > Tim Walz is telling people he’s just as nervous about facing JD Vance on the debate stage as he was when he first warned Kamala Harris he was a bad debater. > [@](#): > > This also plays out in day-to-day engagement: a governor who until six weeks ago was one of the most eagerly accessible Democratic politicians in the country and who essentially manifested himself as the running mate with a few spicy TV appearances has done only a few interviews since being picked, all lower profile. He doesn’t take questions from reporters and rarely comes to chat off the record on his campaign plane. Aides declined requests for even a brief interview with CNN. > > (Snip) > > Their hands are tied, multiple people involved acknowledge: The vice president’s staff doesn’t want a contrast that would highlight how few unscripted events Harris has done. They are limiting Walz’s “unscripted events” because Harris does so few. THAT strikes me as a flaw. I want Harris to win. When I point out she hasn’t done interviews, it’s from the perspective I want her to win. I don’t give a shit about the New York Times, she can tell them to go fuck themselves. I just want her to get her message out, to counter the nonsense and disinformation coming out of the Trump and Vance daily nonsense parade. But I’ll gladly acknowledge I’m no expert on how to get Harris elected. Maybe campaign rallies and speeches are better for her. I worry that those only reach the people already voting for her. But maybe they help motivate turnout. But since this thread is about how Trump can win, not Harris, I’ll shut up about it. ---
**Author:** ![OldOlds](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/o/a3d4f5/32.png) [@OldOlds](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/OldOlds)\ **Post date:** [September 29, 2024, 2:22pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-can-donald-trump-win-at-this-point/1005351/2439 "2024-09-29T14:22:03Z")
Any thoughts on how favorability ratings impact the chances of a win? I don’t see them talked about, but note the glaring difference between the Harris and Trump numbers: Donald Trump has a +9.6 point **unfavorable** rating. > **[Donald Trump : Favorability Polls](https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/favorability/donald-trump/)** > > The latest political polls and polling averages from FiveThirtyEight. JD Vance has a +11 point **unfavorable** rating > **[JD Vance : Favorability Polls](https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/favorability/jd-vance/)** > > The latest political polls and polling averages from FiveThirtyEight. Tim Walz has a +3.7 **favorable** rating > **[Tim Walz : Favorability Polls](https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/favorability/tim-walz/)** > > The latest political polls and polling averages from FiveThirtyEight. Kamala Harris has a +1.1 **favorable** rating > **[Kamala Harris : Favorability Polls](https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/favorability/kamala-harris/)** > > The latest political polls and polling averages from FiveThirtyEight. And note that Harris’ rating has been steadily improving. ---
**Author:** ![DSeid](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/dseid/32/20194_2.png) [@DSeid](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DSeid)\ **Post date:** [September 29, 2024, 3:00pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-can-donald-trump-win-at-this-point/1005351/2440 "2024-09-29T15:00:37Z")
I think it matters, and I’d look a bit deeper, into the _very_ favorable or unfavorable numbers. Looking at the last YouGov one, they are both underwater on that. Among likely voters Harris is -13, compared to Trump -19. Among self-identified Independents it’s Harris -13 again and Trump -24. My suspicion is that the “very” group drives voting behavior much more than “somewhat” does. It is a surprise to me that Trump does not have larger numbers in each of the “very” groups. I had expected opinion of him to be love or hate and Harris to be more “somewhat” approval, but Harris is two points ahead in the “very much approve” among likely voters, along with her four points less in the “very” unapprove rating. And among self-identified Independents that very much unapprove difference is starker, her better by 11. Team Trump’s effort to get her hated by those outside his base has failed so far. None of the shit he’s thrown has stuck yet. Tactically he likely is correct that he needs to more disapproving of her intensely enough to vote _against_ her to win, but fortunately his execution on negative campaigning has been ineffective to date. ---
**Author:** ![DesertDog](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/desertdog/32/11503_2.png) [@DesertDog](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DesertDog)\ **Post date:** [September 29, 2024, 6:10pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-can-donald-trump-win-at-this-point/1005351/2441 "2024-09-29T18:10:28Z")
Which is why he’s depending on his sycophants perpetuating the Big Lie about voter fraud and working hard to negate votes from the ‘wrong’ people. [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-can-donald-trump-win-at-this-point/1005351.md?page=121) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-can-donald-trump-win-at-this-point/1005351.md?page=123)