# How can Donald Trump win at this point? **URL:** \ **Category:** Politics & Elections\ **Tags:** trump, kamala-harris\ **Created:** [August 6, 2024, 9:13pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-can-donald-trump-win-at-this-point/1005351 "2024-08-06T21:13:43Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 124
**Author:** ![flurb](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/f/51bf81/32.png) [@flurb](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/flurb)\ **Post date:** [September 30, 2024, 2:40pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-can-donald-trump-win-at-this-point/1005351/2462 "2024-09-30T14:40:20Z")
I’ve kinda ducked out of this thread because the view that some posters here have of the state of the race is just incompatible with my perception of reality. Every indicator we have is that this is a close race. And I’m not saying that in a “don’t get complacent!” sense – it’s just how it is. The polling is tight, both sides are flush with cash. Whatever I may think of him, Trump has demonstrated that he has an enormous base of support in this country. Harris is better than Biden, but not some once-in-a-generation politician who has the winds of destiny at her back. BUT, I do agree with @ArslanWilson’s point that elections that are genuinely close tend to break one way or the other in both the Presidential and Senate races. So I look at what are the factors that could put a thumb on the scale to tip the swing states one way or the other. And one thing that gives me hope is increasing state Republican alarm about the Trump campaign’s lack of a ground game. Trump has farmed out much of this GOTV effort to affiliated SuperPACs (including Elon Musk’s SuperPAC) that have little experience at organizing and motivating volunteers for the sort of block walking, phone banking and other shoe leather work to actually get your supporters to turn out to the polls. [Republicans are starting to raise alarms about Trump’s ground game - POLITICO](https://www.politico.com/news/2024/09/30/republicans-alarm-trump-ground-game-00181577) ---
**Author:** ![enipla](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/54ee81/32.png) [@enipla](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/enipla)\ **Post date:** [September 30, 2024, 3:43pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-can-donald-trump-win-at-this-point/1005351/2463 "2024-09-30T15:43:21Z")
> [@flurb](#): > > The polling is tight, both sides are flush with cash This is what I just don’t get. Trump is an extortionist, started an insurrection against the USA, and participated in espionage. I don’t care how many commercials they put out there, facts are facts. Trump is a traitor. ---
**Author:** ![LSLGuy](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/lslguy/32/5813_2.png) [@LSLGuy](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/LSLGuy)\ **Post date:** [September 30, 2024, 4:14pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-can-donald-trump-win-at-this-point/1005351/2464 "2024-09-30T16:14:26Z")
Half of America will vote for Putin / Kim Jong Un / Stalin / Hitler / Pol Pot / Genghis Khan as long as there’s an (R) after the name. It’s no deeper than that. Not difficult to understand at all. Appalling, but not difficult. ---
**Author:** ![JRDelirious](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/jrdelirious/32/9531_2.png) [@JRDelirious](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/JRDelirious)\ **Post date:** [September 30, 2024, 4:16pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-can-donald-trump-win-at-this-point/1005351/2465 "2024-09-30T16:16:31Z")
> [@enipla](#): > > This is what I just don’t get. > > Trump is an extortionist, started an insurrection against the USA, and participated in espionage. > > I don’t care how many commercials they put out there, facts are facts. Trump is a traitor. Not _ **to them** _. Not to the “USA” _ **they** _ believe in. Which is not about institutions of law and democracy but about “we don’t need to take shit from no one about how we’re living wrong, know your place!” The facts are the facts, but this is about what the facts _mean_ : _To them_ the facts show the rightful leader refusing to yield his rightfully entitled position of power, and making anyone who crosses him sorry they did. Which _to them_ is rightful and good, what kind of weak loser accepts losing? It was good and right to insurrect against a process that would replace a rightful leader. ---
**Author:** ![suranyi](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/e36b37/32.png) [@suranyi](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/suranyi)\ **Post date:** [September 30, 2024, 4:48pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-can-donald-trump-win-at-this-point/1005351/2466 "2024-09-30T16:48:36Z")
On [Electoral\_vote.com](https://www.electoral-vote.com/), which is a very interesting website in any case, today they have a piece about a disinformation campaign specifically targeted to young black men: “ A number of Democrats associated with the Harris campaign have [looked at](https://www.notus.org/harris-2024/kamala-harris-has-young-voter-energy-but-does-she-have-the-young-voters) this phenomenon closely and concluded that the main culprit is a sophisticated and precisely targeted disinformation campaign on social media platforms, especially Twitch. This is crucial for people whose only source of election information is social media, The main target appears to be young Black men. Many of them feel that progress on issues they care about is much too slow and the disinformation campaign blames Joe Biden and Harris for dragging their feet. Here, Donald Trump’s image as someone who ignores rules, laws, and other barriers works for him. The pitch can be: “He can get things done because he will just trample on anyone or anything in his way.”” ---
**Author:** ![DrDeth](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/b487fb/32.png) [@DrDeth](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DrDeth)\ **Post date:** [September 30, 2024, 8:13pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-can-donald-trump-win-at-this-point/1005351/2467 "2024-09-30T20:13:03Z")
> [@chappachula](#): > > And Harris could easily put an end to it, just by doing what all politicians are expected to do…hold some frickin press conferences. > > This is a BIG issue on all the conservative media sites. > Harris is losing it, big-time. Yes, politicians are expected to hold news conferences, but not as candidates. How many news conferences did Biden hold in 2020- how many interviews? See, the NYT and the gOp has pushed this so much that Dems are believing it- but it is just not true. Harris has done interviews and suck, but I guess they dont count? Yeha, it is a big issue there, along with how horrible the economy is (Lie), that crime is out of control (lie) and that the border is open (lie). > [@Robot\_Arm](#): > > She was criticized on right-wing media for not giving interviews, and then she gave some interviews. Now they say she doesn’t have enough press conferences. If she gave a press conference, they wouldn’t acknowledge it, but would start complaining about something else; maybe that she didn’t do any town hall meetings. > > She could continue chasing some right-wing approval that will never come. That would be letting Fox News lead her by the nose. Exactly. > [@flurb](#): > > Every indicator we have is that this is a close race. Sure. But here is the thing- it is close leaning Harris- and it is getting close in states where trump should have a big lead- Florida, and maybe even Texas. ---
**Author:** ![bordelond](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/bordelond/32/150_2.png) [@bordelond](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/bordelond)\ **Post date:** [September 30, 2024, 8:33pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-can-donald-trump-win-at-this-point/1005351/2468 "2024-09-30T20:33:44Z")
Extra, extra! [**Nate Silver decrees that 56% is not a coin flip!** (link is to free _Silver Bulletin_ article, my emphasis)](https://www.natesilver.net/p/the-128-paths-to-the-white-house) > … as of this morning … Harris has a [**56 percent chance**](https://www.natesilver.net/p/nate-silver-2024-president-election-polls-model) of winning the Electoral College and Trump has a 44 percent chance … > > I’ll grant you that a 56/44 forecast is in kind of a weird, uncomfortable zone. To be clear, the forecast is that Harris will win the Electoral College 56 percent of the time — not that she’ll beat Trump by 12 points — in other words that the race is basically a toss-up. There is a [strong likelihood that this will be a close election](https://www.natesilver.net/p/dont-let-randomness-make-a-fool-of) right up through Election Day. > > **Still, 56 percent is meaningfully different from 50 percent.** Even a somewhat [nitty](https://www.natesilver.net/p/dont-be-a-nit) (i.e. risk-averse) poker player would usually take an all-in spot where they win 56 percent of the time. A baseball team that wins 56 percent of its games goes 91-71, and that’s considered a strong season. So zooming out, you’d probably take this position if you were Kamala Harris. It certainly has Democrats in a [much better situation than they ever had with Biden](https://www.natesilver.net/p/silver-bulletin-2024-biden-trump) — and it should have Republicans wondering about a [series of mistakes made by Donald Trump](https://www.natesilver.net/p/this-was-trumps-election-to-lose). ---
**Author:** ![JohnT](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/johnt/32/15048_2.png) [@JohnT](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/JohnT)\ **Post date:** [September 30, 2024, 8:36pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-can-donald-trump-win-at-this-point/1005351/2469 "2024-09-30T20:36:31Z")
> [@chappachula](#): > > This is a BIG issue on all the conservative media sites. > Harris is losing it, big-time. Asked and answered in one! ---
**Author:** ![bordelond](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/bordelond/32/150_2.png) [@bordelond](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/bordelond)\ **Post date:** [September 30, 2024, 8:39pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-can-donald-trump-win-at-this-point/1005351/2470 "2024-09-30T20:39:40Z")
> [@JKellyMap](#): > > (Sorry, can’t gift link): > > > "The race between Kamala Harris and Donald Trump has tightened in two of the Northern battlegrounds, New York Times/Siena College polls found. > > > > With less than 40 days until Election Day, the race is essentially tied in Michigan, with Ms. Harris receiving 48 percent support among likely voters and Mr. Trump garnering 47 percent — well within the poll’s margin of error. In Wisconsin, a state where polls have a history of overstating support for Democrats, Ms. Harris holds 49 percent to Mr. Trump’s 47 percent." > > Just for fun – I predict 538’s model will now dip down to “54% of model runs favor Harris” around Monday evening, based largely on this poll. That will beat its previous low of 55%, four days ago (it’s currently at 57%) . Currently at 57% after a few runs at 58%. I do now wonder if FiveThirtyEight is dampening the NYT/Siena state-specific polls. It’s notable to me that FiveThirtyEight and Nate Silver are now very close. ---
**Author:** ![Loach](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/loach/32/350_2.png) [@Loach](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Loach)\ **Post date:** [September 30, 2024, 8:53pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-can-donald-trump-win-at-this-point/1005351/2471 "2024-09-30T20:53:32Z")
> [@enipla](#): > > > [@flurb](#): > > > > The polling is tight, both sides are flush with cash > > This is what I just don’t get. > > Trump is an extortionist, started an insurrection against the USA, and participated in espionage. > > I don’t care how many commercials they put out there, facts are facts. Trump is a traitor. I ventured into a battleground state as an outsider this weekend. I haven’t been numbed to the flood of commercials like a native. One thing I noticed was there seemed to be a lot more Trump ads than Harris, both official and PAC. I also noticed the Harris ads were fucking weak. Just a bunch of “Hi I’m Kamala” ads that should have been retired a month ago. I don’t understand the strategy. Hit him with being a traitor. Hit him with killing the immigration bill for his own benefit. Hit him with the indictments and convictions. Why are they hearing in Pennsylvania “When I was a prosecutor…”? There is so much to hit him with and it felt like they are going easy on him. ---
**Author:** ![Stratocaster](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/stratocaster/32/16393_2.png) [@Stratocaster](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Stratocaster)\ **Post date:** [September 30, 2024, 9:04pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-can-donald-trump-win-at-this-point/1005351/2472 "2024-09-30T21:04:40Z")
One of our resident mavens needs to get right on the horn to Silver to explain this means nothing! ---
**Author:** ![Dinsdale](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/97f17d/32.png) [@Dinsdale](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Dinsdale)\ **Post date:** [September 30, 2024, 10:13pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-can-donald-trump-win-at-this-point/1005351/2473 "2024-09-30T22:13:30Z")
> [@bordelond](#): > > Even a somewhat [nitty](https://www.natesilver.net/p/dont-be-a-nit) (i.e. risk-averse) poker player would usually take an all-in spot where they win 56 percent of the time. A baseball team that wins 56 percent of its games goes 91-71, and that’s considered a strong season. But does that analysis apply to a single roll of the dice? Sure, I’ll bet strongly if I have a 56% chance OVER TIME. But if the odds are 44-56 on a single roll, I’m not betting the house. ---
**Author:** ![Atamasama](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/atamasama/32/12961_2.png) [@Atamasama](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Atamasama)\ **Post date:** [September 30, 2024, 10:17pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-can-donald-trump-win-at-this-point/1005351/2474 "2024-09-30T22:17:46Z")
> [@Railer13](#): > > She is your second cousin. I was told there would be no math. ---
**Author:** ![asterion](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/4da419/32.png) [@asterion](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/asterion)\ **Post date:** [September 30, 2024, 11:16pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-can-donald-trump-win-at-this-point/1005351/2475 "2024-09-30T23:16:08Z")
> [@Dinsdale](#): > > But does that analysis apply to a single roll of the dice? Sure, I’ll bet strongly if I have a 56% chance OVER TIME. If I’m on a 56% chance to win, I’m not going all in early. Eventually you have to pick the spot to take the chance. Elections are an all in thing, so I don’t believe anyone who has a strong opinion on the outcome being okay with that in a series of modeled outcomes. Or another example: The Broncos-Jets game had an “AWS Next-Gen Stat” of the Jets winning at 55% late in the fourth yesterday. The Jets lost. ---
**Author:** ![Atamasama](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/atamasama/32/12961_2.png) [@Atamasama](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Atamasama)\ **Post date:** [September 30, 2024, 11:34pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-can-donald-trump-win-at-this-point/1005351/2476 "2024-09-30T23:34:36Z")
> [@asterion](#): > > The Jets lost. Yet another reason why I’m glad we aren’t supporting Aaron Rodgers for POTUS. ---
**Author:** ![Aeschines](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/aeschines/32/16251_2.png) [@Aeschines](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Aeschines)\ **Post date:** [September 30, 2024, 11:55pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-can-donald-trump-win-at-this-point/1005351/2477 "2024-09-30T23:55:06Z")
Nice! I agree 100%. ---
**Author:** ![Aeschines](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/aeschines/32/16251_2.png) [@Aeschines](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Aeschines)\ **Post date:** [September 30, 2024, 11:58pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-can-donald-trump-win-at-this-point/1005351/2478 "2024-09-30T23:58:17Z")
I agree that it is “close” in a sense. She is not blowing Trump out of the water according to the polls. We don’t know how the polls are going to match up with the election day count. I can see her winning by a little bit; I can also see her winning by a healthy but not inordinate margin, which is what I think will happen. I see several factors that potentially boost her above the straight polling numbers: voter registrations, enthusiasm, etc. I don’t see any for Trump. Thus, I don’t see Trump winning. ---
**Author:** ![Aeschines](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/aeschines/32/16251_2.png) [@Aeschines](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Aeschines)\ **Post date:** [October 1, 2024, 12:02am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-can-donald-trump-win-at-this-point/1005351/2479 "2024-10-01T00:02:30Z")
Oh, well, thank you, Nate! Meanwhile, 538 has her at 57 (to Trump’s 42), FWIW, so I guess the two models are close at this point. ---
**Author:** ![DrDeth](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/b487fb/32.png) [@DrDeth](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DrDeth)\ **Post date:** [October 1, 2024, 1:39am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-can-donald-trump-win-at-this-point/1005351/2480 "2024-10-01T01:39:14Z")
> [@Aeschines](#): > > I agree that it is “close” in a sense. Yes, close. Guarded optimism. ---
**Author:** ![Czarcasm](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/czarcasm/32/4050_2.png) [@Czarcasm](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Czarcasm)\ **Post date:** [October 1, 2024, 1:42am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-can-donald-trump-win-at-this-point/1005351/2481 "2024-10-01T01:42:24Z")
How many votes do you think Trump may acquire through lying, cheating and stealing, and could they be enough to overcome Harris’ slight lead? [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-can-donald-trump-win-at-this-point/1005351.md?page=123) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-can-donald-trump-win-at-this-point/1005351.md?page=125)