# How can Donald Trump win at this point? **URL:** \ **Category:** Politics & Elections\ **Tags:** trump, kamala-harris\ **Created:** [August 6, 2024, 9:13pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-can-donald-trump-win-at-this-point/1005351 "2024-08-06T21:13:43Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 133
**Author:** ![JKellyMap](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/jkellymap/32/15880_2.png) [@JKellyMap](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/JKellyMap)\ **Post date:** [October 9, 2024, 11:00am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-can-donald-trump-win-at-this-point/1005351/2642 "2024-10-09T11:00:22Z")
> [@Irishman](#): > > I think Republicans know their days winning votes are limited with their current ideas. Rather than seek better ideas, they are set on gaming the system to create the impression voting is untrustworthy. > > Even getting caught cheating themselves just aids that narrative. Precisely, and well put. > [@Aeschines](#): > > I’m not saying some dickhead won’t try something But that’s the thing: just “trying something” (many somethings) undermines many people’s faith in the system, even if few of the shenanigans eventually hold up in court; — plus there’s the constant whining and lies before and after the election (“millions of illegal immigrants voted for my opponent,” etc.) ---
**Author:** ![Cervaise](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/cervaise/32/16693_2.png) [@Cervaise](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Cervaise)\ **Post date:** [October 9, 2024, 11:08am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-can-donald-trump-win-at-this-point/1005351/2643 "2024-10-09T11:08:09Z")
Exactly. Every individual complaint is just another beat of the drum in the grand Fuck Democracy symphony. ---
**Author:** ![velomont](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/v/8491ac/32.png) [@velomont](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/velomont)\ **Post date:** [October 9, 2024, 11:17am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-can-donald-trump-win-at-this-point/1005351/2644 "2024-10-09T11:17:47Z")
> [@JKellyMap](#): > > But that’s the thing: just “trying something” (many somethings) undermines many people’s faith in the system, even if few of the shenanigans eventually hold up in court; — plus there’s the constant whining and lies before and after the election (“millions of illegal immigrants voted for my opponent,” etc.) And the really terrible thing is that the people whose faith has been undermined will probably never change their minds and, consequently, the resulting damage to democracy is going to be a permanent thing. ---
**Author:** ![JKellyMap](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/jkellymap/32/15880_2.png) [@JKellyMap](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/JKellyMap)\ **Post date:** [October 9, 2024, 11:22am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-can-donald-trump-win-at-this-point/1005351/2645 "2024-10-09T11:22:35Z")
From the summary of a new Ipsos/Reuters poll: “Trump appeared buoyed by widespread concerns over immigration, currently at its highest level in America in over a century. Some 53% of voters in the poll said they agreed with a statement that “immigrants who are in the country illegally are a danger to public safety,” compared to 41% who disagreed. Voters had been more closely divided on the question in a May Reuters/Ipsos poll, when 45% agreed and 46% disagreed.” (Note that it’s the “concerns” that are at a bizarre high, not the immigration itself – _that_ has ebbed considerably over the past year). I wrote a letter to the editor published in my local (swing state) newspaper, refuting the error that immigrants tend to commit more crimes. This really worries me, though. When I canvassed for the Dems over this past week, I talked to about twenty people, and about seven of them said “the border” was their biggest issue – and four of these were convinced that their personal safety was somehow magically threatened by illegal immigration. I wanted to cry. ---
**Author:** ![TeroSunbear](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/terosunbear/32/14748_2.png) [@TeroSunbear](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/TeroSunbear)\ **Post date:** [October 9, 2024, 11:49am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-can-donald-trump-win-at-this-point/1005351/2646 "2024-10-09T11:49:57Z")
They forgot to ask if they were concerned about illegals eating their cats and dogs. Geese too, maybe. ---
**Author:** ![JRDelirious](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/jrdelirious/32/9531_2.png) [@JRDelirious](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/JRDelirious)\ **Post date:** [October 9, 2024, 12:59pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-can-donald-trump-win-at-this-point/1005351/2647 "2024-10-09T12:59:22Z")
> [@velomont](#): > > the people whose faith has been undermined will probably never change their minds and, consequently, the resulting damage to democracy is going to be a permanent thing “Everybody cheats” therefore it’s a contest of who cheats better. And if your side is the one that stands for Real American Righteous Truth, then of course anything you do **is** right and necessary, Righteous Truth cannot be subject to majority choice. ---
**Author:** ![Irishman](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/i/b487fb/32.png) [@Irishman](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Irishman)\ **Post date:** [October 9, 2024, 1:50pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-can-donald-trump-win-at-this-point/1005351/2648 "2024-10-09T13:50:15Z")
> [@PhillyGuy](#): > > As best as I can understand, she feels a need to show native born Americans that she patriotically votes for the U.S. national interest, rather than that of Mexico, and that it would be close-minded not to give Trump proposals benefit of doubts — given that some Harris proposals are also mistaken or impractical. It brought tears to my eyes that I tried to hide. Good people, because they are good, give Trump fair-minded consideration he does not deserve. Did you tell her no one will know how she votes, only what she tells them? Given that Trump’s policies are horrible for Mexico, horrible for America, horrible for her, and horrible for her family, there’s no doubt to benefit from. Whereas Harris might have a few impractical or mistaken ideas, doesn’t she deserve the benefit of the doubt on those? ---
**Author:** ![Aeschines](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/aeschines/32/16251_2.png) [@Aeschines](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Aeschines)\ **Post date:** [October 9, 2024, 3:37pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-can-donald-trump-win-at-this-point/1005351/2649 "2024-10-09T15:37:26Z")
After Trump loses, it will not be a sustainable strategy (aside from the basic, legal voter suppression). Trump did it once to try to stay in power. It’s not clear that he will do the whole thing over this year. I don’t think he has the energy for it this time. And if he doesn’t do it, no one in the GOP is going to pick up that “strategy” (which was really just a failed, one-time ploy) and run with it. Though there may be individuals who try it in the future, such as Kari Lake. ---
**Author:** ![Aeschines](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/aeschines/32/16251_2.png) [@Aeschines](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Aeschines)\ **Post date:** [October 9, 2024, 5:45pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-can-donald-trump-win-at-this-point/1005351/2650 "2024-10-09T17:45:32Z")
OK, I just bought a Harris-Walz t-shirt and tacked on a small donation. Money isn’t a problem for the campaign, but I still felt I needed to do it. I pretty much daily look at National Review to see what the Other Side is saying, but I don’t post a lot of links here from there, since, even though the site is a comparatively reasonable and rational presentation of the Right, it’s still pretty stupid overall. But this article is _not_ stupid: > **[The Democrats’ Anxiety Vibe Shift Is Here | National Review](https://www.nationalreview.com/the-morning-jolt/the-democrats-anxiety-vibe-shift-is-here/)** > > They think Harris is running a good campaign. The problem is nothing she does has changed what remains a stunningly close race. I think he makes a pertinent point about Harris failing to break with Biden more. I think, “Biden was great, but I’m going to do some things differently,” is a concept that’s pretty easy to sell to both Democrats and convinceable others. Also this: > [@article](#): > > The Harris campaign’s entire theory of the case is wrong. Reminding people about what they couldn’t stand about Trump and emphasizing “joy” and “vibes” is not sufficient to close the deal with an electorate. It completely misreads the mood of the voters, who have been coping with runaway inflation and a high cost of living for most of the past four years, who have a growing sense that no one is in charge at the border, who worry about a [genuine post-Covid rise in crime](https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2024/09/18/crime-rate-law-enforcement-fbi-trump/), and who see an international scene beset by invasions, terrorism, and massacres, all presided over by a doddering old man who was hidden from the public by a staff that took Edith Wilson as a role model. I somewhat disagree in that I think the “joy” has sold well, especially to the Democratic base, but could also be combined with some stronger messages that address the genuine malaise out there a bit better. But is there a “vibe shift” at all? I don’t think so. I think that there has been constant worry from the start of the Harris campaign, as evidenced by this thread. OTOH, I would say that there have been daily low-scale vibe shifts: it’s been like riding a roller coaster with only small hills and small dips. It definitely feels that nothing, whether positive or negative for either candidate, affects things much. My guess, as before, remains that Harris has substantial but not massive support that is not reflected in the polls, and we will have a solid win. I also think that the news for Trump is really bad at this point, and it will slightly erode his support up to election day. ---
**Author:** ![Kolak\_of\_Twilo](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/kolak_of_twilo/32/73_2.png) [@Kolak\_of\_Twilo](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Kolak_of_Twilo)\ **Post date:** [October 9, 2024, 6:00pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-can-donald-trump-win-at-this-point/1005351/2651 "2024-10-09T18:00:07Z")
I’ve said it before but it looks more and more like GOTV is going to determine who wins, particularly in PA. I think this is likely to be a Harris/Dem strength so I remain hopeful but it is just so annoyingly close. ---
**Author:** ![Aeschines](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/aeschines/32/16251_2.png) [@Aeschines](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Aeschines)\ **Post date:** [October 9, 2024, 6:23pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-can-donald-trump-win-at-this-point/1005351/2652 "2024-10-09T18:23:43Z")
Agreed! ---
**Author:** ![Aeschines](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/aeschines/32/16251_2.png) [@Aeschines](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Aeschines)\ **Post date:** [October 9, 2024, 6:24pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-can-donald-trump-win-at-this-point/1005351/2653 "2024-10-09T18:24:12Z")
Here is a pretty good video that has footage of recent Michael Moore comments: > **[WOW! Michael Moore Makes STUNNING 2024 Election Prediction](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=iRe-5uspGQM%2F)** > > Follow my other social media accounts:http://twitter.com/keithedwardshttp://instagram.com/keithedwards/http://tiktok.com/@keithedwardshttp://threads.net/@kei... ---
**Author:** ![PhillyGuy](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/p/ed655f/32.png) [@PhillyGuy](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/PhillyGuy)\ **Post date:** [October 9, 2024, 6:51pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-can-donald-trump-win-at-this-point/1005351/2654 "2024-10-09T18:51:32Z")
> [@Aeschines](#): > > I think he makes a pertinent point about Harris failing to break with Biden more. I think, “Biden was great, but I’m going to do some things differently,” is a concept that’s pretty easy to sell to both Democrats and convinceable others. Remaining swing voters, in my opinion, who break for her, will do so not because of her policies, but because Trump is just too bad of a human being. Watering the contrast down with last-minute flip-flopping would be a mistake. ---
**Author:** ![JKellyMap](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/jkellymap/32/15880_2.png) [@JKellyMap](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/JKellyMap)\ **Post date:** [October 9, 2024, 7:07pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-can-donald-trump-win-at-this-point/1005351/2655 "2024-10-09T19:07:33Z")
Helpful analysis - thanks. Yeah, it’s not so much a vibe _shift_; it’s more a distressing recognition that the positive-vibes thing has reached its limits (perhaps inevitably). It’s distressing not only because we’re left with a coin flip (more or less), but also because so much of the other side’s _negative_ vibes (economy, immigration, who was and is responsible for what…) is bullshit. (Not _all_ of it is bullshit, as you cited from that National Review piece – international wars being the suckiest part, if unfairly attributed to the Biden/Harris administration – but _most_ of it). ---
**Author:** ![Aeschines](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/aeschines/32/16251_2.png) [@Aeschines](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Aeschines)\ **Post date:** [October 9, 2024, 7:20pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-can-donald-trump-win-at-this-point/1005351/2656 "2024-10-09T19:20:33Z")
Agreed. She’s played it very safe this campaign, and it’s been a good, effective strategy, but not one that can’t be criticized in some respects. I don’t think she should change it at this point, and probably can’t. ---
**Author:** ![Aeschines](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/aeschines/32/16251_2.png) [@Aeschines](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Aeschines)\ **Post date:** [October 9, 2024, 7:22pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-can-donald-trump-win-at-this-point/1005351/2657 "2024-10-09T19:22:20Z")
Yes. Plus, it’s fear-based and not healthy for the country or democracy, even if it’s true. The fact that it is mostly BS, as you say, makes it maximally unhealthy. ---
**Author:** ![Czarcasm](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/czarcasm/32/4050_2.png) [@Czarcasm](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Czarcasm)\ **Post date:** [October 9, 2024, 7:28pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-can-donald-trump-win-at-this-point/1005351/2658 "2024-10-09T19:28:01Z")
> [@Aeschines](#): > > After Trump loses… Seeing this posted, over and over again, is one of the reasons he may win. If you want Harris to win, _please_ stop. ---
**Author:** ![Aeschines](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/aeschines/32/16251_2.png) [@Aeschines](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Aeschines)\ **Post date:** [October 9, 2024, 7:38pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-can-donald-trump-win-at-this-point/1005351/2659 "2024-10-09T19:38:51Z")
Wait, wait. You’re an atheist-materialist, right? Aren’t you guys _not_ supposed to believe in jinxes?! ---
**Author:** ![Czarcasm](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/czarcasm/32/4050_2.png) [@Czarcasm](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Czarcasm)\ **Post date:** [October 9, 2024, 7:42pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-can-donald-trump-win-at-this-point/1005351/2660 "2024-10-09T19:42:58Z")
The “No need to worry-Trump will obviously lose” mantra stopped being funny a _long_ time ago. ---
**Author:** ![Aeschines](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/aeschines/32/16251_2.png) [@Aeschines](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Aeschines)\ **Post date:** [October 9, 2024, 7:45pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-can-donald-trump-win-at-this-point/1005351/2661 "2024-10-09T19:45:52Z")
Well, I ain’t saying that or implying that. And I have affirmed the opposite of that many times in this thread. [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-can-donald-trump-win-at-this-point/1005351.md?page=132) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-can-donald-trump-win-at-this-point/1005351.md?page=134)