# How can Donald Trump win at this point? **URL:** \ **Category:** Politics & Elections\ **Tags:** trump, kamala-harris\ **Created:** [August 6, 2024, 9:13pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-can-donald-trump-win-at-this-point/1005351 "2024-08-06T21:13:43Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 135
**Author:** ![bordelond](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/bordelond/32/150_2.png) [@bordelond](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/bordelond)\ **Post date:** [October 10, 2024, 2:56pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-can-donald-trump-win-at-this-point/1005351/2682 "2024-10-10T14:56:57Z")
> [@RickJay](#): > > I’m waiting for the collapse of the Trump campaign people in this thread were very confident was already happening. When’s that taking place? Hello? Well … the question is now “_Are poll numbers a close proxy for final election results?_” I have my doubts, but doubts aren’t quantifiable … so …? Activote, you can probably disregard. Nate Silver kicked it out of his aggregations over a month ago for methodological reasons: > > > Lakshya Jain @lxeagle17 ---
**Author:** ![Aeschines](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/aeschines/32/16251_2.png) [@Aeschines](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Aeschines)\ **Post date:** [October 10, 2024, 3:09pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-can-donald-trump-win-at-this-point/1005351/2683 "2024-10-10T15:09:22Z")
Yet… the Times/Siena polls just came out, and _for the first time_ since Harris joined the race, found her up nationally, 49% to 46%: [https://www.nytimes.com/2024/10/08/us/politics/harris-trump-poll-national.html](https://www.nytimes.com/2024/10/08/us/politics/harris-trump-poll-national.html) Since this poll has been so tough on Harris but is also respected, this was taken as a big deal. ---
**Author:** ![bordelond](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/bordelond/32/150_2.png) [@bordelond](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/bordelond)\ **Post date:** [October 10, 2024, 3:29pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-can-donald-trump-win-at-this-point/1005351/2684 "2024-10-10T15:29:55Z")
> [@Aeschines](#): > > Yet… the Times/Siena polls just came out, and _for the first time_ since Harris joined the race, found her up nationally, 49% to 46% On top of this, FWIW, **[the NYT/Siena poll has been progressively increasing the size of their likely-voter sample set](https://www.realclearpolling.com/polls/president/general/2024/trump-vs-harris)** since their late July poll (their first Harris-vs-Trump poll). Scroll down to “ **Poll Data** ”, then choose “New York Times” from the dropdown filter at right. [![Imgur](https://i.imgur.com/3rB3wfO.jpeg "imgur.com") ](https://imgur.com/3rB3wfO) Presumably, this means that the most recent NYT poll result is “truer” than the earlier ones. ---
**Author:** ![Aeschines](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/aeschines/32/16251_2.png) [@Aeschines](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Aeschines)\ **Post date:** [October 10, 2024, 3:31pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-can-donald-trump-win-at-this-point/1005351/2685 "2024-10-10T15:31:32Z")
> [@Irishman](#): > > That’s a distortion and an unfair burden on journalists. These folks are career journalists with integrity. That means they aren’t partisan hacks like FOX dipshits. It’s their job to scrutinize for the American people. They are supposed to ask tough questions of politicians, in office and as candidates. Individuals may have integrity, but the system itself is broken beyond repair. Trump and other evildoers on the right have hacked it and can now use it fairly freely for their own purposes. Further, they’ve successfully established their own propaganda arm masquerading as traditional media: Fox, OAN, etc. > [@](#): > > It just so happens that the norms are so far broken on one side it’s almost impossible to call that side out hard enough. I mean, short of starting every remark, “Donald Trump lied about this today. The Republicans are distorting the facts heavily on this topic.” For just about every topic and comment and statement. That is truth, but it’s also just not possible. This is how 75% of hack works, however: use the media as a normalizing context. The desire to be “fair and balanced” to Democrats and Republicans runs deep and used to be healthy. But the media has been unable to respond since the GOP became a fascist insurgency and criminal organization. If you hold debates, ask questions, and simply report on the two parties as if both are real, normal parties, that makes the GOP seem _normal enough_ for all the stupid people to vote for Trump and his ilk. > [@](#): > > But that doesn’t mean they shouldn’t hold Democrats responsible for their remarks and positions. A fair system has to call out wrongs from both sides, even if one side’s wrongs are social faux pas versus the other side’s felonies. And it should also point out when each side is right. Ah, but the other 25% of the hack is to use the media to throw bombs and get attention. Trump has been one of the greatest in world history at this. Calling him out on his lies is just giving him more attention. Meanwhile, the Democrats are trying to use the media in the traditional, civically responsible manner to reach and influence people who, _you know_, give a fuck about right and wrong and making the country better. So the media’s criticizing Trump does next to nothing, while their criticizing Democrats does actual damage. Harris’s approach has been not to take this bait, and it’s been very clever and disciplined overall. But in some ways she has failed to get her own attention from the media. Now that she is actually doing interviews, etc., she getting more attention but also taking some damage. Sigh. It’s hard to be real politician instead of a fascist cult leader! ---
**Author:** ![Aeschines](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/aeschines/32/16251_2.png) [@Aeschines](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Aeschines)\ **Post date:** [October 10, 2024, 3:35pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-can-donald-trump-win-at-this-point/1005351/2686 "2024-10-10T15:35:32Z")
Right. And speaking of “truer” polls, one guy I saw on YouTube yesterday made a point I found interesting (though I don’t know if it’s true or not, as I am not an expert in these matters): That pollsters become more accurate as they approach the election, since they want to be known as “good polls” and be included in aggregates, etc., in the future. Thus, they may do less in the way of bullshit, partisan things late in the game. ---
**Author:** ![bordelond](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/bordelond/32/150_2.png) [@bordelond](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/bordelond)\ **Post date:** [October 10, 2024, 3:37pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-can-donald-trump-win-at-this-point/1005351/2687 "2024-10-10T15:37:37Z")
> [@Aeschines](#): > > Right. And speaking of “truer” polls, one guy I saw on YouTube yesterday made a point I found interesting (though I don’t know if it’s true or not, as I am not an expert in these matters): **That pollsters become more accurate as they approach the election, since they want to be known as “good polls” and be included in aggregates, etc., in the future. Thus, they may do less in the way of bullshit, partisan things late in the game**. _(my emphasis)_ This point is made frequently on the higher-profile liberal Substacks as well (e.g. _Hopium Chronicles, Status Kuo_). ---
**Author:** ![sciurophobic](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/cab0a1/32.png) [@sciurophobic](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/sciurophobic)\ **Post date:** [October 10, 2024, 3:38pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-can-donald-trump-win-at-this-point/1005351/2688 "2024-10-10T15:38:55Z")
“What would I do differently? Well, since, unlike Joe, I’ll be following one of the most successful Presidents in American history, and not the most incompetent, I won’t have to spend any time fixing my predecessor’s messes.” ---
**Author:** ![Win\_Place\_Show](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/win_place_show/32/13469_2.png) [@Win\_Place\_Show](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Win_Place_Show)\ **Post date:** [October 10, 2024, 3:44pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-can-donald-trump-win-at-this-point/1005351/2689 "2024-10-10T15:44:40Z")
> [@RickJay](#): > > I’m waiting for the collapse of the Trump campaign people in this thread were very confident was already happening. When’s that taking place? Hello? Yep, I poked my head back in to this thread yesterday after a long hiatus, and just reading backwards 8 hours it seems like the “tone” here must never have changed. First we were promised “Don’t worry fellas, he’s not even gonna be the nominee”, then we were guaranteed “Well nevermind it’s okay, because he won’t show up to debate Biden”. And apparently we’re still being told that he’s in an unrecoverable tailspin, with the stick-shaker coming off it’s hinges. No need to worry, because VP Harris has this one in the bag already - not sure why we’re even wasting our time on an election, right? Seems like a better title for this thread would be “There’s no fucking way he SHOULD win, right?”. That I’d be 100% on board with. But “How could he win at this point?” Just the handful of posts I’ve scrolled through, I’ve seen dozens of reasons given and they always get dismissed, ignored, and handwaved away. I sure as hell hope this one ends up being the “third time’s the charm” thread and we finally get one right. But anyone who thinks this is any better than a coin flip is delusional. It SHOULDN’T fucking be that way, I totally grant you that, but it is what it is. ---
**Author:** ![Great\_Antibob](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/g/e47c2d/32.png) [@Great\_Antibob](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Great_Antibob)\ **Post date:** [October 10, 2024, 3:47pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-can-donald-trump-win-at-this-point/1005351/2690 "2024-10-10T15:47:35Z")
> [@Win\_Place\_Show](#): > > I sure as hell hope this one ends up being the “third time’s the charm” thread and we finally get one right. Indeed so. But the “why” is still important, even if that seems like looking the proverbial gift horse in the mouth. Being right in the stopped clock sense is nice and all but it doesn’t really help for future elections or for all those pesky down ballots that are actually pretty darned important. ---
**Author:** ![Aeschines](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/aeschines/32/16251_2.png) [@Aeschines](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Aeschines)\ **Post date:** [October 10, 2024, 4:10pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-can-donald-trump-win-at-this-point/1005351/2691 "2024-10-10T16:10:56Z")
It’s a long thread, and I’ve already gone over some of the ways in which I’ve been wrong. One major thing is that I underestimated how much his base is willing to stick with him, as well as GOP politicians. One way in which I’ve been right, however, is that the argument of the OP has held: Trump hasn’t been able to gain new voters since Harris took over. His campaign has been terrible. His public performances have been execrable and embarrassing. So he has done nothing to win and, more likely than not (according to the aggregators), will lose. ---
**Author:** ![RickJay](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/bb73d2/32.png) [@RickJay](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/RickJay)\ **Post date:** [October 10, 2024, 4:22pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-can-donald-trump-win-at-this-point/1005351/2692 "2024-10-10T16:22:57Z")
> [@Aeschines](#): > > Further, they’ve successfully established their own propaganda arm masquerading as traditional media: Fox, OAN, etc. Or the Russians have. I believe the influence of Russia on the US media is in fact much, much greater than most people would guess. I would point out that 1. It is a matter of enormous self-interest to the Putin regime to have Trump elected - in fact, it may be a matter of existential urgency, 2. Buying off Tim Pool, Scott Adams, Candace Owens, a hundred Republican legislators, etc. and setting up bots is **extremely** cheap as compared to other expenditures related to national security - it’s a tiny fraction of the cost of fighting the Ukraine war but could result in winning the war, and 3. The USA has no defense against it. There is nothing to stop Russia. I cannot construct any rational argument why Russian interference in US media and bribery of media figures is not in fact ten times worse than most people assume. (The GOP blather about how the federal government is refusing to help hurricane victims? That’s Russia, folks.) It would be irrational for Russia to NOT do this; it simply would make no sense for them not to. One more point in Trump’s favor to keep his chances high. ---
**Author:** ![Velocity](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/velocity/32/18006_2.png) [@Velocity](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Velocity)\ **Post date:** [October 10, 2024, 4:41pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-can-donald-trump-win-at-this-point/1005351/2693 "2024-10-10T16:41:49Z")
If so, it still looks like Russia’s efforts for Trump are rather lackluster and half-hearted. I’d expect to be seeing hundreds of ultra-realistic AI Kamala deepfakes, etc. going around, along with whatever the best that an intelligence agency has to offer. ---
**Author:** ![Euphonious\_Polemic](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/euphonious_polemic/32/3002_2.png) [@Euphonious\_Polemic](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Euphonious_Polemic)\ **Post date:** [October 10, 2024, 4:47pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-can-donald-trump-win-at-this-point/1005351/2694 "2024-10-10T16:47:22Z")
> [@Aeschines](#): > > Sigh. It’s hard to be real politician instead of a fascist cult leader! Much in the same way that it’s easier to burn a building to the ground with a match than it is to build the structure in the first place. The Republicans are simply arsonists and vandals at this point. ---
**Author:** ![Aeschines](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/aeschines/32/16251_2.png) [@Aeschines](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Aeschines)\ **Post date:** [October 10, 2024, 5:13pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-can-donald-trump-win-at-this-point/1005351/2695 "2024-10-10T17:13:23Z")
Agreed. They are winning at any cost simply to keep their jobs, money, and power. ---
**Author:** ![Aeschines](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/aeschines/32/16251_2.png) [@Aeschines](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Aeschines)\ **Post date:** [October 10, 2024, 5:15pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-can-donald-trump-win-at-this-point/1005351/2696 "2024-10-10T17:15:10Z")
Yes, I’m not sure what’s going on with Russia. They have another problem on their hands right now. One would think there has to be _some_ interference, but the scale is unclear. Also, as with everything else, the media has done a poor job of reporting on it. Where’s the big article, “The State of Russian Interference in the 2024 Election”? I haven’t seen it. ---
**Author:** ![RickJay](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/bb73d2/32.png) [@RickJay](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/RickJay)\ **Post date:** [October 10, 2024, 5:28pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-can-donald-trump-win-at-this-point/1005351/2697 "2024-10-10T17:28:05Z")
> [@Aeschines](#): > > Yes, I’m not sure what’s going on with Russia. They have another problem on their hands right now. There’s 130 million people in Russia. They can do two or more things at once. ---
**Author:** ![Aeschines](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/aeschines/32/16251_2.png) [@Aeschines](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Aeschines)\ **Post date:** [October 10, 2024, 5:47pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-can-donald-trump-win-at-this-point/1005351/2698 "2024-10-10T17:47:33Z")
Yup, I was thinking more about money and the bandwidth to organize a major effort. ---
**Author:** ![Velocity](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/velocity/32/18006_2.png) [@Velocity](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Velocity)\ **Post date:** [October 10, 2024, 5:51pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-can-donald-trump-win-at-this-point/1005351/2699 "2024-10-10T17:51:19Z")
To make things worse for Trump, he has made the bafflingly head-scratcher decision to spend the rest of the election campaigning in blue states rather than swing states. > **[Trump plans rallies in solidly Democratic states in an unorthodox strategy...](https://www.yahoo.com/news/trump-plans-rallies-solidly-democratic-202534413.html)** > > The stops will take him to Coachella in California and Madison Square Garden in New York. ---
**Author:** ![SunUp](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/ea5d25/32.png) [@SunUp](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/SunUp)\ **Post date:** [October 10, 2024, 6:02pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-can-donald-trump-win-at-this-point/1005351/2700 "2024-10-10T18:02:06Z")
What could be better than a night at the Garden? [![](https://img.youtube.com/vi/NC1MNGFHR58/maxresdefault.jpg "A Night at the Garden | An American Nazi Rally in 1939 | POV") ](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NC1MNGFHR58) ---
**Author:** ![bordelond](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/bordelond/32/150_2.png) [@bordelond](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/bordelond)\ **Post date:** [October 10, 2024, 6:07pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-can-donald-trump-win-at-this-point/1005351/2701 "2024-10-10T18:07:52Z")
> [@Aeschines](#): > > **Trump hasn’t been able to gain new voters since Harris took over.** His campaign has been terrible. His public performances have been execrable and embarrassing. _(my emphasis)_ Specific to the bolded … I just posted **[Simon Rosenberg’s recent take](https://www.hopiumchronicles.com/p/a-very-good-week-for-harris-walz)** on the Harris campaign’s various advantages over Trump’s: > [@Polling is broken, right? Or is it the news? Or all of the US?](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/polling-is-broken-right-or-is-it-the-news-or-all-of-the-us/993779/443): > > “All” might fairly called an exaggeration (though I cop to saying “all non-polling data …” myself). Still … I think it’s instructive to view all this from the point of view of one of the bigger liberal voices putting out 2024 election content: [yep, good ol’ Simon Rosenberg](https://www.hopiumchronicles.com/p/a-very-good-week-for-harris-walz), who will never, ever concede a nanometer of ground to Republican pundits. I’ll convert his paragraphs into a numbered list so that it’s easier to address individual items. From yesterday’s Hopium Chronicles: Here’s the di… For anyone reading this thread wondering how anyone can get to a headspace in which Harris looks significantly more likely than not to win the election … read through Rosenberg’s points and consider what outcome someone who accepts all of those points uncritically would expect from the general election. [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-can-donald-trump-win-at-this-point/1005351.md?page=134) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-can-donald-trump-win-at-this-point/1005351.md?page=136)