# How can Donald Trump win at this point? **URL:** \ **Category:** Politics & Elections\ **Tags:** trump, kamala-harris\ **Created:** [August 6, 2024, 9:13pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-can-donald-trump-win-at-this-point/1005351 "2024-08-06T21:13:43Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 136
**Author:** ![DSeid](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/dseid/32/20194_2.png) [@DSeid](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DSeid)\ **Post date:** [October 10, 2024, 6:08pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-can-donald-trump-win-at-this-point/1005351/2702 "2024-10-10T18:08:46Z")
Emphasis on the uncritically! 😀 ---
**Author:** ![Odesio](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/odesio/32/20003_2.png) [@Odesio](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Odesio)\ **Post date:** [October 10, 2024, 6:26pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-can-donald-trump-win-at-this-point/1005351/2703 "2024-10-10T18:26:43Z")
It’s bad enough millions of Americans have no problem embracing an autocrat. But for that autocrat to be a weak crybaby like Trump is just plain embarrassing. ---
**Author:** ![bordelond](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/bordelond/32/150_2.png) [@bordelond](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/bordelond)\ **Post date:** [October 10, 2024, 6:30pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-can-donald-trump-win-at-this-point/1005351/2704 "2024-10-10T18:30:13Z")
> [@DSeid](#): > > Emphasis on the uncritically ! 😀 Yeah … but he lists a lot of factors (well, 13 by my count), 12 of which are not general-election polling numbers. Even if you think several of them are dodgy, that’s still a lot in Harris’ favor. ---
**Author:** ![Aeschines](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/aeschines/32/16251_2.png) [@Aeschines](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Aeschines)\ **Post date:** [October 10, 2024, 6:48pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-can-donald-trump-win-at-this-point/1005351/2705 "2024-10-10T18:48:02Z")
I read the column, and I didn’t see anything too kooky in it. He sounds like a lot of the other _positive_ pundits I read/watch and mentions some of the same factors. ---
**Author:** ![bordelond](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/bordelond/32/150_2.png) [@bordelond](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/bordelond)\ **Post date:** [October 10, 2024, 6:59pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-can-donald-trump-win-at-this-point/1005351/2706 "2024-10-10T18:59:45Z")
Another thorn in Trump’s side: Over a third of Republican & independent Nikki Haley primary voters aren’t coming home to Trump for the general election. > [@Polling is broken, right? Or is it the news? Or all of the US?](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/polling-is-broken-right-or-is-it-the-news-or-all-of-the-us/993779/448): > > [The Bulwark commissioned a survey](https://www.thebulwark.com/p/exclusive-poll-finds-large-chunk) of Republican Nikki Haley primary voters to see where they stood as a cohort seven months after her March concession to Trump. Just one poll, of course – nevertheless, the findings: If the election were held today, Donald Trump would win just 45 percent of those who backed Haley in the GOP primary while 36 percent said they’d back Harris, the new poll shows, according to the survey of 781 registered Republicans and independents … Trump’s level of support from… ---
**Author:** ![Kolak\_of\_Twilo](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/kolak_of_twilo/32/73_2.png) [@Kolak\_of\_Twilo](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Kolak_of_Twilo)\ **Post date:** [October 10, 2024, 7:36pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-can-donald-trump-win-at-this-point/1005351/2707 "2024-10-10T19:36:01Z")
> [@Velocity](#): > > To make things worse for Trump, he has made the bafflingly head-scratcher decision to spend the rest of the election campaigning in blue states rather than swing states. > > [Trump plans rallies in solidly Democratic states in an unorthodox strategy for the election's final weeks](https://www.yahoo.com/news/trump-plans-rallies-solidly-democratic-202534413.html) I saw this earlier and yes, it is indeed a head-scratcher. Surely they don’t have internal polling data showing California, Illinois, Colorado and New York are trending red? It looks like a fools errand to me but hey, if they want to waste time and money I’m not going to discourage them. ---
**Author:** ![Happy\_Lendervedder](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/happy_lendervedder/32/8488_2.png) [@Happy\_Lendervedder](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Happy_Lendervedder)\ **Post date:** [October 10, 2024, 7:44pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-can-donald-trump-win-at-this-point/1005351/2708 "2024-10-10T19:44:02Z")
It creates headlines and makes it more likely to have national media run a live feed from a rally at MSG than if he does another one from Bumflick, MI. ---
**Author:** ![RickJay](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/bb73d2/32.png) [@RickJay](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/RickJay)\ **Post date:** [October 10, 2024, 7:47pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-can-donald-trump-win-at-this-point/1005351/2709 "2024-10-10T19:47:34Z")
> [@Kolak\_of\_Twilo](#): > > It looks like a fools errand to me but hey, if they want to waste time and money I’m not going to discourage them. It’s just a way to raise money. Lots of Trump supporters are happy to cough up cash in California and New York. There’s more Trumpists in California than in almost any state he’s actually gonna win. ---
**Author:** ![Aeschines](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/aeschines/32/16251_2.png) [@Aeschines](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Aeschines)\ **Post date:** [October 10, 2024, 7:53pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-can-donald-trump-win-at-this-point/1005351/2710 "2024-10-10T19:53:30Z")
Another thing I was wrong about is that I thought that Trump’s physical and mental decline would progress at a faster rate. Now, he _is_ in terrible shape. I doubt he would last a year as president, certainly not a full term. But, like a Sith Lord, his evil seems to preserve him in an unnatural way. (Didn’t help him much in the debate, however…) ---
**Author:** ![veryfrank](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/v/87869e/32.png) [@veryfrank](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/veryfrank)\ **Post date:** [October 10, 2024, 8:21pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-can-donald-trump-win-at-this-point/1005351/2711 "2024-10-10T20:21:18Z")
> [@Happy\_Lendervedder](#): > > It creates headlines and makes it more likely to have national media run a live feed from a rally at MSG than if he does another one from Bumflick, MI. Funny you should mention Madison Square Garden, as he’s planning a reenactment of that big Bund rally: [Trump plan for Madison Square Garden rally compared to infamous Nazi event | US elections 2024 | The Guardian](https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2024/oct/10/trump-madison-square-garden-rally-nazi-comparison) ---
**Author:** ![Railer13](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/railer13/32/9742_2.png) [@Railer13](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Railer13)\ **Post date:** [October 10, 2024, 8:39pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-can-donald-trump-win-at-this-point/1005351/2712 "2024-10-10T20:39:52Z")
> [@RickJay](#): > > There’s more Trumpists in California than in almost any state he’s actually gonna win. This, exactly. Also, California was the birthplace of Stephen Miller, Tucker Carlson, and Andrew Breitbart. ---
**Author:** ![Elmer\_J.Fudd](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/elmer_j.fudd/32/1211_2.png) [@Elmer\_J.Fudd](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Elmer_J.Fudd)\ **Post date:** [October 10, 2024, 10:04pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-can-donald-trump-win-at-this-point/1005351/2713 "2024-10-10T22:04:41Z")
> [@RickJay](#): > > It’s just a way to raise money. This. I visit Orange County, CA about every month to surf and visit the folks and there seems to be a Trump rally in Newport Beach every time I’m down there. ---
**Author:** ![Velocity](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/velocity/32/18006_2.png) [@Velocity](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Velocity)\ **Post date:** [October 10, 2024, 10:20pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-can-donald-trump-win-at-this-point/1005351/2714 "2024-10-10T22:20:39Z")
My only guess to Trump’s logic is that he’s figured that he can win swing state voters without physically being in that state, due to TV/media visibility. A rally held in downtown Manhattan will still be viewed online by plenty of voters in Michigan, Wisconsin, Arizona, etc. In fact, it may even be more heavily covered in the media than if such a rally had been held in Lansing or Green Bay. So Trump is figuring that what matters more is getting eyeballs on his rallies, not where the rallies are held. ---
**Author:** ![Jas09](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/j/d07c76/32.png) [@Jas09](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Jas09)\ **Post date:** [October 10, 2024, 10:42pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-can-donald-trump-win-at-this-point/1005351/2715 "2024-10-10T22:42:54Z")
> [@Velocity](#): > > So Trump is figuring that what matters more is getting eyeballs on his rallies, not where the rallies are held. It will be an interesting test. In 2016 and 2020 they were pretty laser-focused on swing states and GOTV efforts. This cycle seems to much more media-focused (and, of course, fundraising/grift focused). Either they are convinced that their voters will come out to vote come hell or high water (literally in NC and LF) or they are making the same mistake Clinton did going to FL and TX near the end of the 2016 campaign. Or maybe Trump just really loves the rallies and knows that after this election cycle, win or lose, he won’t be able to do them anymore. Particularly at places like MSG. Actually that probably makes the most sense - he just really wants to do it and nobody can tell him no. ---
**Author:** ![Elmer\_J.Fudd](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/elmer_j.fudd/32/1211_2.png) [@Elmer\_J.Fudd](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Elmer_J.Fudd)\ **Post date:** [October 10, 2024, 10:52pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-can-donald-trump-win-at-this-point/1005351/2716 "2024-10-10T22:52:02Z")
> [@Jas09](#): > > Or maybe Trump just really loves the rallies and knows that after this election cycle, win or lose, he won’t be able to do them anymore. I have no doubt there will be plenty of Trump rallies after the election no matter the outcome. ---
**Author:** ![OldOlds](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/o/a3d4f5/32.png) [@OldOlds](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/OldOlds)\ **Post date:** [October 11, 2024, 3:12am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-can-donald-trump-win-at-this-point/1005351/2717 "2024-10-11T03:12:37Z")
Seriously, there are three possibilities here: 1. He knows he will win B. He knows he can’t win - He’s an idiot I wish I knew which was the correct one ---
**Author:** ![PhillyGuy](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/p/ed655f/32.png) [@PhillyGuy](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/PhillyGuy)\ **Post date:** [October 11, 2024, 3:13am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-can-donald-trump-win-at-this-point/1005351/2718 "2024-10-11T03:13:04Z")
> [@Kolak\_of\_Twilo](#): > > Surely they don’t have internal polling data showing California, Illinois, Colorado and New York are trending red? Agreed. But I also doubt they have internal polling data showing that having a rally in a state increases the candidate’s chances of winning the state. ---
**Author:** ![PhillyGuy](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/p/ed655f/32.png) [@PhillyGuy](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/PhillyGuy)\ **Post date:** [October 11, 2024, 3:22am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-can-donald-trump-win-at-this-point/1005351/2719 "2024-10-11T03:22:33Z")
Trump is continuing, Huey Long-style, to outpromise his opponent: [Trump courts auto workers with car loan tax break](https://www.reuters.com/world/us/trump-propose-making-car-loan-interest-tax-deductible-speech-2024-10-10/) Will uncertain voters see through this? Maybrvnot. ---
**Author:** ![Railer13](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/railer13/32/9742_2.png) [@Railer13](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Railer13)\ **Post date:** [October 11, 2024, 3:43am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-can-donald-trump-win-at-this-point/1005351/2720 "2024-10-11T03:43:30Z")
> [@PhillyGuy](#): > > [Trump courts auto workers with car loan tax break](https://www.reuters.com/world/us/trump-propose-making-car-loan-interest-tax-deductible-speech-2024-10-10/) > > Will uncertain voters see through this? Of course, only taxpayers who itemize will be able to deduct interest on an auto loan. According to this [article](https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/markets/trumps-proposed-car-loan-deduction-isnt-as-shiny-as-youd-think/ar-AA1s3mgK?ocid=BingNewsSerp) on MSN, by a reporter from the Detroit Free Press, only 10% of taxpayers itemized last year. Even if the 2017 tax breaks are allowed to expire, the percentage of itemized filers is still only about 30%. And, of course, there is this tidbit: > It’s also key to note the dollar value of the deduction would be bigger for someone who makes more money and pays a higher tax rate. It would be smaller for someone who earns less money and pays a lower tax rate. ---
**Author:** ![DrDeth](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/b487fb/32.png) [@DrDeth](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DrDeth)\ **Post date:** [October 11, 2024, 4:31am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-can-donald-trump-win-at-this-point/1005351/2721 "2024-10-11T04:31:06Z")
> [@PhillyGuy](#): > > Trump is continuing, Huey Long-style, to outpromise his opponent: It is a typical Right Wing Populist tactic, and trump used it in 2026, and people bought his promises. He only kept two- he got rid of Roe (something he never promised as such, IIRC) and lowered taxes on millionaires. he lost in 2020 as people saw that. Have they forgotten? [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-can-donald-trump-win-at-this-point/1005351.md?page=135) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-can-donald-trump-win-at-this-point/1005351.md?page=137)