# How can Donald Trump win at this point? **URL:** \ **Category:** Politics & Elections\ **Tags:** trump, kamala-harris\ **Created:** [August 6, 2024, 9:13pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-can-donald-trump-win-at-this-point/1005351 "2024-08-06T21:13:43Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 137
**Author:** ![Happy\_Lendervedder](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/happy_lendervedder/32/8488_2.png) [@Happy\_Lendervedder](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Happy_Lendervedder)\ **Post date:** [October 11, 2024, 5:33pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-can-donald-trump-win-at-this-point/1005351/2722 "2024-10-11T17:33:30Z")
To answer the question, How can Donald Trump win at this point? 1. Harris is losing more male voters than than she can afford in battlegrounds. [https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/4927569-dems-worry-harris-men-voters/](https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/4927569-dems-worry-harris-men-voters/) 2. With 24 days until election day, she’s up on Trump nationally by only 2.5%. [National : President: general election : 2024 Polls | FiveThirtyEight](https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/2024/national/?ex_cid=abcpromo) 3. With 24 days until election day, according to 538, she’s 3.1% underwater in the three largest sunbelt swing states (AZ, GA, NC), and only up by 1.9% in the industrial belt swing states (MI, PA, WI) 4. Union voters are falling away from Harris/Walz. “Especially concerning for Democrats is that Harris isn’t even polling as well as Hillary Clinton did in 2016 among union voters. Notably, Clinton ended up losing two key states, Michigan and Pennsylvania, where unions represent more than 14 percent of the workforce. The loss of those two traditionally Democratic-leaning states along with Wisconsin propelled Donald Trump to the White House. Clinton led Trump among labor voters by 12 points eight years ago, while Harris now leads Trump by only 9 points, according to polling data aggregated by CNN.” [https://thehill.com/homenews/senate/4916950-harris-lacks-traction-union-voters/](https://thehill.com/homenews/senate/4916950-harris-lacks-traction-union-voters/) 5. Arab/Muslim voters have turned on her. Trump leads Harris by 4% among Arab voters nationally. This is a problem in Michigan and Georgia. [https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/4917055-harris-arab-american-muslim-voters-concerns/](https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/4917055-harris-arab-american-muslim-voters-concerns/) 6. Trump is holding more campaign events than Harris. Note: the writers at 538 claim that this doesn’t indicate anything electorially, but it does show Trump is not just sitting around or golfing in the final weeks of the campaign. [Trump is holding more campaign events than Harris - ABC News](https://abcnews.go.com/538/trump-holding-campaign-events-harris/story?id=114567436) 7. Support from Latinos continues to drop. [https://www.politico.com/news/2024/10/10/harris-univision-town-hall-dreamers-00183365](https://www.politico.com/news/2024/10/10/harris-univision-town-hall-dreamers-00183365) Just thought instead of constantly handwaving this crisis away with links from bloggers explaining how much Harris is actually crushing Trump, we should have a list of stories showing otherwise. ---
**Author:** ![aurora\_maire](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/aurora_maire/32/328_2.png) [@aurora\_maire](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/aurora_maire)\ **Post date:** [October 11, 2024, 6:07pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-can-donald-trump-win-at-this-point/1005351/2723 "2024-10-11T18:07:45Z")
> [@PhillyGuy](#): > > [Trump courts auto workers with car loan tax break](https://www.reuters.com/world/us/trump-propose-making-car-loan-interest-tax-deductible-speech-2024-10-10/) > > Will uncertain voters see through this? Maybrvnot. And today it’s “tax deduction on generators!”. > [@Trump on Truth Social](#): > > North Carolina, Georgia, Florida, Alabama, South Carolina, Tennessee and, always, Louisiana, Texas, and other States: Due to the unusual activity of Storms, Hurricanes, and Tornadoes, and other Natural Disasters, especially in well-reported parts of our Country, when I win the Presidential Election of 2024, on November 5th, the Most Important Day in the History of our Country, we are going to allow you, retroactive to September 1st, 2024, to purchase a Generator for your Home, which will, in so doing, entitle you to fully deduct the TOTAL cost of said Generator for Income Tax Purposes. With what our Country is going through, and with the poor response you’re getting from the White House and the Federal Government, including Lyin’ Kamala Harris and Crooked Joe Biden, this is something you fully deserve. This Tax Deduction is available until August 31st, 2025. How soon do we get to a free! pony! for everyone? ---
**Author:** ![Aeschines](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/aeschines/32/16251_2.png) [@Aeschines](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Aeschines)\ **Post date:** [October 11, 2024, 6:11pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-can-donald-trump-win-at-this-point/1005351/2724 "2024-10-11T18:11:02Z")
Thanks, that’s a good list. Yeah, it is (in our and others’ minds) the battle of the stats at this point. I could add some negative bits and pieces to the ones you listed, and I could add some positive ones I haven’t talked about. My logic at this point is this: It all comes down to whether Harris has hidden support that isn’t reflected in the polls (superior GOTV organization, superior enthusiasm, new registrations, etc., and perhaps even incorrectly weighted polls). If she does, then she will win, perhaps substantially. If she does not, then it will be a squeaker that either candidate can win, with the caveat that Harris gets to 270 with the poll numbers taken at face value (i.e., the polls would have to break against her in order for her to lose). What I _don’t_ think is the case is that Trump has hidden support and will outperform his polling numbers. Nor do I think he is in any kind of upward trajectory at this point. He is barely hanging on to what he’s got. Anyhow, that’s my read. ---
**Author:** ![Aeschines](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/aeschines/32/16251_2.png) [@Aeschines](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Aeschines)\ **Post date:** [October 11, 2024, 6:12pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-can-donald-trump-win-at-this-point/1005351/2725 "2024-10-11T18:12:15Z")
Also, I don’t see anything as a “crisis” for Harris right now. It’s the same close election for her that it has been from the start. ---
**Author:** ![Chad\_Sudan](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/chad_sudan/32/4509_2.png) [@Chad\_Sudan](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Chad_Sudan)\ **Post date:** [October 11, 2024, 6:15pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-can-donald-trump-win-at-this-point/1005351/2726 "2024-10-11T18:15:43Z")
Free generators! And the Gulf of Mexico will pay for it. ---
**Author:** ![Great\_Antibob](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/g/e47c2d/32.png) [@Great\_Antibob](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Great_Antibob)\ **Post date:** [October 11, 2024, 6:34pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-can-donald-trump-win-at-this-point/1005351/2727 "2024-10-11T18:34:40Z")
If you squint hard enough, I suppose it’s a sort of infrastructure investment ---
**Author:** ![Velocity](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/velocity/32/18006_2.png) [@Velocity](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Velocity)\ **Post date:** [October 11, 2024, 6:45pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-can-donald-trump-win-at-this-point/1005351/2728 "2024-10-11T18:45:47Z")
This election gives me an Alabama vs. Clemson January 2019 vibe. The vibe where, during the long buildup leading up to the actual contest, the media and everyone keeps hyping it up as a battle of equals, talking about how what a closely fought, narrow battle it will be…and it ends up being nothing of the sort. Not close. In fact, it becomes anticlimactic. ---
**Author:** ![DSeid](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/dseid/32/20194_2.png) [@DSeid](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DSeid)\ **Post date:** [October 11, 2024, 8:21pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-can-donald-trump-win-at-this-point/1005351/2729 "2024-10-11T20:21:48Z")
> [@Happy\_Lendervedder](#): > > With 24 days until election day, according to 538, she’s 3.1% underwater in the three largest sunbelt swing states (AZ, GA, NC), What??? Behind yes. But Arizona down 1.8 > **[Arizona : President: general election : 2024 Polls](https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/2024/arizona/)** > > The latest political polls and polling averages from FiveThirtyEight. Georgia 0.8 > **[Georgia : President: general election : 2024 Polls](https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/2024/georgia/)** > > The latest political polls and polling averages from FiveThirtyEight. NC 0.9 > **[North Carolina : President: general election : 2024 Polls](https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/2024/north-carolina/)** > > The latest political polls and polling averages from FiveThirtyEight. To me within 2 is tossup. 538 agrees with each as tossup. [AZ](https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2024-election-forecast/arizona/) they rate 57/43; [GA](https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2024-election-forecast/georgia/) 55/45; and [NC](https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2024-election-forecast/north-carolina/) 55/45 too. All coin flips. Not independent ones though. 3 _would_ be more scary. There very likely will be some significant systemic error shifting most numbers two or three one way or the other. No hard data way to know which direction it is going to be. Your other points? An article that hyperventilates over a poll’s subgroups (small n) is dismissible. Come back with pooled data maybe. I can buy the NYT Sienna 11 point overall deficit same as HRC had. It is the baseline. Will these casual misogynists turn out much? We will see. But I don’t think there is much more to done to win them. Yes it would be nice to be stronger with Union voters. The lack of support from Arab voters is regrettable. It is however baked into the current MI polling. Mostly I’ve seen is polls that have Stein as their choice. Will they come home? If not then the polls are no worse than they are now, which has her favored in toss up range. No question that Michigan is not a sure thing. Bibi is doing his worst to kneecap her. Bottom line remains: polling is close. The unknowns likely will break significantly one way or the other. I’m personally convinced of one way. Those stories are more convincing to me. Might be wrong. ---
**Author:** ![DSeid](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/dseid/32/20194_2.png) [@DSeid](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DSeid)\ **Post date:** [October 11, 2024, 11:18pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-can-donald-trump-win-at-this-point/1005351/2730 "2024-10-11T23:18:11Z")
On the losing with men point. Looking at other polls to get a broader sense. [YouGov](https://d3nkl3psvxxpe9.cloudfront.net/documents/econTabReport_pw9W1fW.pdf#page9) has her up 9 with women, down 5 with men. [Ipsos](https://www.ipsos.com/sites/default/files/ct/news/documents/2024-08/Ipsos%20National%20Poll%20Aug%202024%20Crosstabs.pdf) has her up 14 in women, down 3 in men. And I just picked those two at random. While I buy the NYT’s take, their number does seem cherry picked to tell the worst possible story. ---
**Author:** ![DSeid](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/dseid/32/20194_2.png) [@DSeid](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DSeid)\ **Post date:** [October 11, 2024, 11:32pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-can-donald-trump-win-at-this-point/1005351/2731 "2024-10-11T23:32:04Z")
Gosh the more one digs! Suffolk’s poll Hispanic voters [AZ](https://www.suffolk.edu/-/media/suffolk/documents/academics/research-at-suffolk/suprc/polls/other-states/2024/10_7_2025_arizona_hispanic_tables.pdf?la=en&hash=CA47DFF8A97C8861F6C1982896E19B6067323C47): Trump up 2 with men, down 40!! with women. Overall down 19. Not seeing the groupings The Hill article cites? ---
**Author:** ![PhillyGuy](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/p/ed655f/32.png) [@PhillyGuy](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/PhillyGuy)\ **Post date:** [October 12, 2024, 1:23am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-can-donald-trump-win-at-this-point/1005351/2732 "2024-10-12T01:23:04Z")
> [@](#): > > we are going to allow you, retroactive to September 1st, 2024, to purchase a Generator for your Home, which will, in so doing, entitle you to fully deduct the TOTAL cost of said Generator for Income Tax Purposes. My son in law bought one about two months ago. But I guess next week Trump will make it retroactive to whatever date you want. I’m afraid a lot of people are going to be buying a generator, this weekend, that they cannot afford ☹ And no, I do not believe they deserve what they get. ---
**Author:** ![DesertDog](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/desertdog/32/11503_2.png) [@DesertDog](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DesertDog)\ **Post date:** [October 12, 2024, 1:40am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-can-donald-trump-win-at-this-point/1005351/2733 "2024-10-12T01:40:30Z")
> [@DrDeth](#): > > It is a typical Right Wing Populist tactic, and trump used it in 2026 I think I threw up in my mouth a little. I don’t think my stomach lining could take another two years of his nibs, ---
**Author:** ![Measure\_for\_Measure](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/measure_for_measure/32/557_2.png) [@Measure\_for\_Measure](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Measure_for_Measure)\ **Post date:** [October 12, 2024, 1:49am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-can-donald-trump-win-at-this-point/1005351/2734 "2024-10-12T01:49:55Z")
Nate Silver: Harris has a 49% - 46% lead in the smoothed polling averages, which translates to a 52% chance of victory, not that different from the past month. Race remains 50-50. Harris has 3:1 odds of winning the popular vote, while Trump has a 25% chance of that. > [@bordelond](#): > > Well … the question is now “_Are poll numbers a close proxy for final election results?_” I have my doubts, but doubts aren’t quantifiable … so …? Some doubts can be quantified. Silver’s model _assumes_ that polls will favor one of the two candidates, though we don’t know which one yet. So those dubious about polling need to show how they favor Republicans _more_ than they did in 2022. Because pollsters recalibrate to adjust for past errors. Brad DeLong continues his open season on journmalism: > **[The Deceptive Poll Punditry of Statistical Noise; or, Why Nate Silver &...](https://open.substack.com/pub/braddelong/p/the-deceptive-poll-punditry-of-statistical?r=e7aly&utm_campaign=post&utm_medium=email)** > > Can one reason with these people? Pundits misinform with overhyped statistical noise, while the truthful message of the “Silver Bulletin” is that little has changed and we still have insufficient... > Can one reason with these people? Pundits misinform with overhyped statistical noise, while the truthful message of the “Silver Bulletin” is that little has changed and we still have insufficient reason to claim any useful knowledge about what is going on in this election… > Hype-driven takes from figures like Dan Pfeiffer and Nate Cohn serve only to muddle the waters. Pfeiffer’s claims about Harris’s gains in recent polls lack a solid foundation, based on small sample sizes and unreflective voter opinions. Cohn’s defenses of his Florida poll data showing Trump leading in that state by an improbably large margin raise even more questions. It is highly likely that both pundits are falsely presenting statistical noise as meaningful information. And so Silver’s work as a polling aggregator remains indispensable. I volunteer. If Harris wins hurray. If Trump wins, well at least I tried and the fight for democracy doesn’t end. My middle aged grandfather left a thriving law practice to fight in WWII: I can jolly well textbank and donate dineros to the Dems. My fight has been longer, but far far far far far less intense. ---
**Author:** ![Odesio](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/odesio/32/20003_2.png) [@Odesio](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Odesio)\ **Post date:** [October 12, 2024, 2:07am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-can-donald-trump-win-at-this-point/1005351/2735 "2024-10-12T02:07:56Z")
> [@PhillyGuy](#): > > And no, I do not believe they deserve what they get. At some point, I think they kind of do. If Trump is elected and his supporters start complaining about the leopards eating _their_ faces it’s going to be very difficult for me to bite my tongue to stop from telling them to piss off with their complaints. ---
**Author:** ![PhillyGuy](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/p/ed655f/32.png) [@PhillyGuy](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/PhillyGuy)\ **Post date:** [October 12, 2024, 2:29am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-can-donald-trump-win-at-this-point/1005351/2736 "2024-10-12T02:29:53Z")
> [@Odesio](#): > > > [@PhillyGuy](#): > > > > And no, I do not believe they deserve what they get. > > At some point, I think they kind of do. If Trump is elected and his supporters . . . The people who buy generators, thinking that they will be reimbursed, are not necessarily his supporters. Some of them may have a genuine intellectual disability. ---
**Author:** ![Odesio](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/odesio/32/20003_2.png) [@Odesio](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Odesio)\ **Post date:** [October 12, 2024, 2:32am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-can-donald-trump-win-at-this-point/1005351/2737 "2024-10-12T02:32:03Z")
> [@PhillyGuy](#): > > The people who buy generators, thinking that they will be reimbursed, are not necessarily his supporters. Some of them may have a genuine intellectual disability. They’re willing to sell the United States out for the promise of 20 pieces of silver. Anyone who supports Trumps is either a fool or they’re evil. ---
**Author:** ![DrDeth](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/b487fb/32.png) [@DrDeth](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DrDeth)\ **Post date:** [October 12, 2024, 6:33am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-can-donald-trump-win-at-this-point/1005351/2738 "2024-10-12T06:33:13Z")
> [@DesertDog](#): > > I think I threw up in my mouth a little. I don’t think my stomach lining could take another two years of his nibs, I am sorry, I meant 2016. but you get the idea. ---
**Author:** ![TeroSunbear](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/terosunbear/32/14748_2.png) [@TeroSunbear](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/TeroSunbear)\ **Post date:** [October 12, 2024, 1:24pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-can-donald-trump-win-at-this-point/1005351/2739 "2024-10-12T13:24:45Z")
Trump holds nazi rally in Aurora CO > **[Aaron Rupar (@aaron.rupar) on Threads](https://www.threads.net/@aaron.rupar/post/DBADOxbp27g?xmt=AQGzpyJX8pDbYjPADPsu9Dg9lbmPmRtdZqjalnrOXfEghQ)** > > The racism is right out in the open Videos is next post. ---
**Author:** ![TeroSunbear](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/terosunbear/32/14748_2.png) [@TeroSunbear](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/TeroSunbear)\ **Post date:** [October 12, 2024, 1:28pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-can-donald-trump-win-at-this-point/1005351/2740 "2024-10-12T13:28:47Z")
I guess the videos do not work here. Try # Residents react to Trump’s Aurora rally Youtube FOX31’s Greg Nieto speaks with the residents of the apartments that went viral in a video and spurred former President Donald Trump to visit Aurora. ---
**Author:** ![TeroSunbear](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/terosunbear/32/14748_2.png) [@TeroSunbear](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/TeroSunbear)\ **Post date:** [October 12, 2024, 1:41pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-can-donald-trump-win-at-this-point/1005351/2741 "2024-10-12T13:41:33Z")
Trump scores points in CO (continued) Link goes to USA Today > Inside the rally: pictures of Venezuelan migrant gangs. > > > Trump: “I will rescue Aurora and every town that has been invaded and conquered,” Trump told the crowd. "We will put these vicious and bloodthirsty criminals in jail or kick them out of our country. > > [Immigration takes center stage at Trump's Colo. rally: 3 takeaways](https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/politics/elections/2024/10/11/trump-operation-aurora-colorado/75617416007/) [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-can-donald-trump-win-at-this-point/1005351.md?page=136) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-can-donald-trump-win-at-this-point/1005351.md?page=138)