# How can Donald Trump win at this point? **URL:** \ **Category:** Politics & Elections\ **Tags:** trump, kamala-harris\ **Created:** [August 6, 2024, 9:13pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-can-donald-trump-win-at-this-point/1005351 "2024-08-06T21:13:43Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 138
**Author:** ![Lantern2](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/lantern2/32/3010_2.png) [@Lantern2](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Lantern2)\ **Post date:** [October 12, 2024, 3:05pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-can-donald-trump-win-at-this-point/1005351/2742 "2024-10-12T15:05:51Z")
+3 for Harris in PA on the latest NYTimes poll is probably the best bit of polling news she has had in a while. OTOH some weak numbers in WI and MI with Harris behind or tied in quality polls from Emerson and Quinnipiac. The bottom line is the election is a toss-up with at best a slim edge for Harris. In non-polling news the Democrats have unleashed their big weapons with Obama and Bill Clinton hitting the campaign trail. In general there is little question that Harris has much better surrogates than Trump. She also has a big advantage in money and organization.That might give you a sliver of hope that Harris will outperform her polls and get the clear win. ---
**Author:** ![TeroSunbear](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/terosunbear/32/14748_2.png) [@TeroSunbear](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/TeroSunbear)\ **Post date:** [October 12, 2024, 4:50pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-can-donald-trump-win-at-this-point/1005351/2743 "2024-10-12T16:50:49Z")
Back to the voters. I was leafing through a book on American voters. We do have to give Trump credit for his giant strawman. Reagan got the current hatred of the federal government going. But then it was a sort of “so what?” situation. The issue has to go over some threshold for them to vote. The low info low income voter did not really get involved in policy, or voting. The brilliant move was to make migrants and Democrats the cause of their misery. Add to that fear of migrants as criminals and the soup was ready. ---
**Author:** ![DesertDog](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/desertdog/32/11503_2.png) [@DesertDog](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DesertDog)\ **Post date:** [October 12, 2024, 6:05pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-can-donald-trump-win-at-this-point/1005351/2744 "2024-10-12T18:05:51Z")
> [@PhillyGuy](#): > > The people who buy generators, thinking that they will be reimbursed, are not necessarily his supporters. Some of them may have a genuine intellectual disability. They are grown-ass adults with agency, not keepers, and are responsible for their own actions. The additional fact that they are destroying my country and everything it stood for, at least in theory, makes it impossible for me to feel the slightest bit of sorrow what befalls them. ---
**Author:** ![Ludovic](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/l/7ab992/32.png) [@Ludovic](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Ludovic)\ **Post date:** [October 12, 2024, 7:08pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-can-donald-trump-win-at-this-point/1005351/2745 "2024-10-12T19:08:05Z")
> [@DSeid](#): > > Suffolk’s poll Hispanic voters [AZ](https://www.suffolk.edu/-/media/suffolk/documents/academics/research-at-suffolk/suprc/polls/other-states/2024/10_7_2025_arizona_hispanic_tables.pdf?la=en&hash=CA47DFF8A97C8861F6C1982896E19B6067323C47): Trump up 2 with men, down 40!! with women. He has a very big hole to dig out of indeed if he is 2,551,082,656,125,828,464,640,000% down with women! ---
**Author:** ![BobLibDem](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/boblibdem/32/3149_2.png) [@BobLibDem](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/BobLibDem)\ **Post date:** [October 12, 2024, 7:18pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-can-donald-trump-win-at-this-point/1005351/2746 "2024-10-12T19:18:05Z")
Wait a minute, 40! is 8.159152832 E+47. ---
**Author:** ![Al128](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/al128/32/16541_2.png) [@Al128](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Al128)\ **Post date:** [October 12, 2024, 7:47pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-can-donald-trump-win-at-this-point/1005351/2747 "2024-10-12T19:47:07Z")
> [@OldOlds](#): > > Seriously, there are three possibilities here: > > 1. He knows he will win > B. He knows he can’t win > > - He’s an idiot > > I wish I knew which was the correct one Pick any 2 of those 3 ---
**Author:** ![Elmer\_J.Fudd](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/elmer_j.fudd/32/1211_2.png) [@Elmer\_J.Fudd](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Elmer_J.Fudd)\ **Post date:** [October 12, 2024, 7:52pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-can-donald-trump-win-at-this-point/1005351/2748 "2024-10-12T19:52:00Z")
> [@OldOlds](#): > > Seriously, there are three possibilities here: > > 1. He knows he will win > B. He knows he can’t win > > - He’s an idiot > > I wish I knew which was the correct one I’ll go with a fourth possibility. He’s getting tired of speaking to the same slack-jawed idiots that follow him like deadheads from one rally to the next. He wants to rant in front of some fresh faces (and wallets). ---
**Author:** ![aurora\_maire](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/aurora_maire/32/328_2.png) [@aurora\_maire](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/aurora_maire)\ **Post date:** [October 12, 2024, 8:09pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-can-donald-trump-win-at-this-point/1005351/2749 "2024-10-12T20:09:04Z")
> [@PhillyGuy](#): > > I’m afraid a lot of people are going to be buying a generator, this weekend, that they cannot afford ☹ > > And no, I do not believe they deserve what they get. But them suffering for doing ill-advised things like this may be the only way to get through to them. The MAGA nation are brainwashed. They need to come back to reality for the country’s sake. If it takes some real-world consequences to enlighten them, maybe it’s for the best. Nothing else is working. ---
**Author:** ![Sherrerd](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/sherrerd/32/8_2.png) [@Sherrerd](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Sherrerd)\ **Post date:** [October 12, 2024, 8:28pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-can-donald-trump-win-at-this-point/1005351/2750 "2024-10-12T20:28:12Z")
> [@aurora\_maire](#): > > But them suffering for doing ill-advised things like this may be the only way to get through to them. I don’t think anything will get through to them. They’ve been sold the flattery that _They are the Real Righteous Peopl_e–with the logical corollary that _Nothing is Ever Their Fault_. It’s always someone else’s fault. And the flatterers haven’t been reluctant to offer their dupes scapegoats. Anything bad that happens to the eager consumers of this flattery is the Fault of the Other. The Scapegoat. (Black or brown people; women; gays; experts; Democrats—whatever). If they suffer, they will not learn. They will just hate harder. ---
**Author:** ![Euphonious\_Polemic](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/euphonious_polemic/32/3002_2.png) [@Euphonious\_Polemic](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Euphonious_Polemic)\ **Post date:** [October 12, 2024, 9:04pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-can-donald-trump-win-at-this-point/1005351/2751 "2024-10-12T21:04:31Z")
> [@Elmer\_J.Fudd](#): > > He wants to rant in front of some fresh faces (and wallets). Yes. The usual MAGAts have already blown all their spare cash on overpriced made in China Trump branded crap. Sales are down. Time for fresh marks. ---
**Author:** ![JKellyMap](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/jkellymap/32/15880_2.png) [@JKellyMap](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/JKellyMap)\ **Post date:** [October 13, 2024, 12:16pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-can-donald-trump-win-at-this-point/1005351/2752 "2024-10-13T12:16:52Z")
Distressing and insightful (gift link): > **[Why Is Trump Gaining With Black and Hispanic Voters?](https://www.nytimes.com/2024/10/13/upshot/trump-black-hispanic-voters-harris.html?unlocked_article_code=1.R04.68wT.D1MvXUX8wJbs&smid=url-share)** > > Five possible explanations for the increases in support, particularly among young men. A key quote: “In a way, Democrats are suffering the cost of having held the presidency for 12 of the last 16 difficult years. The period began with high hopes, most of all for Black voters. Today, voters remain deeply dissatisfied with the state of the country and the economy. Great expectations weren’t met.” (As for the focus on “fun,” do I detect a whiff of racism there, on Nate Cohn’s part? Maybe not, but it seems he’s saying “young black men are complete idiots.”) ---
**Author:** ![OldOlds](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/o/a3d4f5/32.png) [@OldOlds](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/OldOlds)\ **Post date:** [October 13, 2024, 1:34pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-can-donald-trump-win-at-this-point/1005351/2753 "2024-10-13T13:34:55Z")
Here is what I’ve realized, having just spent some time with MAGA relatives: Trump can win because it is so easy for people (not just MAGA) to immerse themselves in what they want to hear. None of them were aware of half the things Trump has said and done. I was met with outright dismissal of Trump’s sending testing equipment to Putin, despite the fact that the Kremlin has confirmed it. Trump can win because there’s no such thing as news and truth anymore. I know this isn’t a revelation, but I think it’s the simple answer to “How can Donald Trump win at this point?” ---
**Author:** ![Railer13](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/railer13/32/9742_2.png) [@Railer13](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Railer13)\ **Post date:** [October 13, 2024, 2:12pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-can-donald-trump-win-at-this-point/1005351/2754 "2024-10-13T14:12:14Z")
> [@OldOlds](#): > > Trump can win because there’s no such thing as news and truth anymore. Yep. From this [Huffpost](https://www.huffpost.com/entry/maga-twitter-x-troll-lunch_n_66fd7573e4b0d70dcaa003d6?utm_source=cordial&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=hp-us-reg-morning-email_2024-10-09&utm_term=us-morning-email&email_hash=d35c5a397d502580201f8e31f42bed2ab2db7f68) interview with a Trumper: > I asked him when, or how, he decides that a mainstream source like the AP is reliable. > > “[If] it’s coming from AP, Politico, CNBC, CNN… and it’s good [about Trump], I imagine it’s true,” he told me. Otherwise, of course, it’s a buncha lies. ---
**Author:** ![Odesio](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/odesio/32/20003_2.png) [@Odesio](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Odesio)\ **Post date:** [October 13, 2024, 3:29pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-can-donald-trump-win-at-this-point/1005351/2755 "2024-10-13T15:29:29Z")
> [@JKellyMap](#): > > “In a way, Democrats are suffering the cost of having held the presidency for 12 of the last 16 difficult years. The period began with high hopes, most of all for Black voters. Today, voters remain deeply dissatisfied with the state of the country and the economy. Great expectations weren’t met.” I’d sure like to know what great expectations they have for a Trump victory. > [@JKellyMap](#): > > (As for the focus on “fun,” do I detect a whiff of racism there, on Nate Cohn’s part? Maybe not, but it seems he’s saying “young black men are complete idiots.”) Back in 2016, I was talking to some interns at work about the election explaining to them that this wasn’t normal. In 2024 I have to acknowledge that normal has changed. Cohn argues that that for many young Black & Hispanic voters Trump is normal and I think he’s right. (It’s likely true for young white voters as well, but this article isn’t focused on them.) Trump has been looming large over politics for as long as some of these kids have been half paying attention to the news. If you’re a 25 year old voter this is just politics as usual. I know we’ve discussed here on the boards that many MAGA disciples like Trump because he’s entertaining which is another way of saying he’s fun. They’ve elected a reality television star and love it. Those who attend MAGA rallies love hearing Trump and others say outrageous things. It’s a big show to them. What concerns me most are the 20% of Black and 40% of Hispanic voters who say we’re taking Trump’s words “too seriously.” For those of us who remember being told that in 2016, those voters sound like idiots. If someone speaks lies about entire groups of people in order to dehumanize them then you take that shit seriously. ---
**Author:** ![madmonk28](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/madmonk28/32/20811_2.png) [@madmonk28](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/madmonk28)\ **Post date:** [October 13, 2024, 4:01pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-can-donald-trump-win-at-this-point/1005351/2756 "2024-10-13T16:01:21Z")
> [@Odesio](#): > > Back in 2016, I was talking to some interns at work about the election explaining to them that this wasn’t normal. In 2024 I have to acknowledge that normal has changed. One of the features of the under developed world is that people live their lives in a constant state of chaos, they lurch from crisis to crisis and have little control over their own fates. Trump rides that wave of chaos, Republicans dismantle our government’s ability to respond to events like natural disasters and gun crime and then they blame Democrats for the pain the GOP has created. This chaos is America’s new normal. ---
**Author:** ![Dinsdale](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/97f17d/32.png) [@Dinsdale](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Dinsdale)\ **Post date:** [October 13, 2024, 4:10pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-can-donald-trump-win-at-this-point/1005351/2757 "2024-10-13T16:10:27Z")
> [@Sherrerd](#): > > I don’t think anything will get through to them. Yep. These folk would be on their deathbeds, denying what was obviously killing them. Their feelings and beliefs are far stronger than any reality. > [@OldOlds](#): > > Trump can win because it is so easy for people (not just MAGA) to immerse themselves in what they want to hear. Yeppers. So much easier to simply have a mindset/worldview spoonfed to you rather than figuring things out for yourself. A lot of similarities to a lot of religion. ---
**Author:** ![Euphonious\_Polemic](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/euphonious_polemic/32/3002_2.png) [@Euphonious\_Polemic](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Euphonious_Polemic)\ **Post date:** [October 13, 2024, 4:21pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-can-donald-trump-win-at-this-point/1005351/2758 "2024-10-13T16:21:20Z")
> [@Dinsdale](#): > > Yep. These folk would be on their deathbeds, denying what was obviously killing them. Their feelings and beliefs are far stronger than any reality. Some did exactly that with Covid. ---
**Author:** ![madmonk28](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/madmonk28/32/20811_2.png) [@madmonk28](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/madmonk28)\ **Post date:** [October 13, 2024, 4:23pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-can-donald-trump-win-at-this-point/1005351/2759 "2024-10-13T16:23:01Z")
> [@Euphonious\_Polemic](#): > > Some did exactly that with Covid. A friend’s wife is an ER nurse in Tennessee and she said a lot of people’s last words were “I don’t have Covid.” ---
**Author:** ![GailForce](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/g/dfb087/32.png) [@GailForce](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/GailForce)\ **Post date:** [October 13, 2024, 4:44pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-can-donald-trump-win-at-this-point/1005351/2760 "2024-10-13T16:44:09Z")
> [@DSeid](#): > > The lack of support from Arab voters is regrettable. This is emblematic of what I don’t get about Trump supporters. This is a man who has explicitly and systematically blamed Muslims for ruining the U.S.–why is he getting a single Arab/Muslim vote? ---
**Author:** ![Kolak\_of\_Twilo](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/kolak_of_twilo/32/73_2.png) [@Kolak\_of\_Twilo](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Kolak_of_Twilo)\ **Post date:** [October 13, 2024, 4:53pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-can-donald-trump-win-at-this-point/1005351/2761 "2024-10-13T16:53:17Z")
It is a LACK of support for Harris from Arab voters in certain states that is the problem. Few of them will vote for the GOP. [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-can-donald-trump-win-at-this-point/1005351.md?page=137) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-can-donald-trump-win-at-this-point/1005351.md?page=139)