# How can Donald Trump win at this point? **URL:** \ **Category:** Politics & Elections\ **Tags:** trump, kamala-harris\ **Created:** [August 6, 2024, 9:13pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-can-donald-trump-win-at-this-point/1005351 "2024-08-06T21:13:43Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 150
**Author:** ![Aeschines](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/aeschines/32/16251_2.png) [@Aeschines](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Aeschines)\ **Post date:** [October 20, 2024, 2:51pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-can-donald-trump-win-at-this-point/1005351/2990 "2024-10-20T14:51:19Z")
Interesting and believable point. ---
**Author:** ![DesertDog](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/desertdog/32/11503_2.png) [@DesertDog](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DesertDog)\ **Post date:** [October 20, 2024, 3:43pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-can-donald-trump-win-at-this-point/1005351/2991 "2024-10-20T15:43:12Z")
One factor I haven’t seen in a while, if at all, in this thread is that he actually has four chances to win – for some values of “win.” - He wins the EC straight-up (shudder). - In states where he lost well-placed election ~~officials~~ minions jigger their ‘concerns’ about fraud to tip the state in his favor. - When the EC votes are counted we get a repeat if J6 only this time the Oathbreakers and Loud Boys are better organized, having learned from 2020. - Ditto for January 20, 2025. ---
**Author:** ![LSLGuy](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/lslguy/32/5813_2.png) [@LSLGuy](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/LSLGuy)\ **Post date:** [October 20, 2024, 3:45pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-can-donald-trump-win-at-this-point/1005351/2992 "2024-10-20T15:45:58Z")
You skipped the one where the EC ends up in a condition (whether arrived at by means fair or foul) where the constitution legitimately drives the election to the House. Wherein the more numerous R states (remember it’s 1 vote per state) then anoint their king. All I can think of is _Lord of the Flies_. ---
**Author:** ![Odesio](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/odesio/32/20003_2.png) [@Odesio](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Odesio)\ **Post date:** [October 20, 2024, 4:14pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-can-donald-trump-win-at-this-point/1005351/2993 "2024-10-20T16:14:26Z")
> [@Dinsdale](#): > > Why do you feel that misogyny and racism are not significant factors in the race being as close as it is/seems? It’s not as significant as I feared. I believe the election would be very, very close even if Biden were still in the race. When Harris took over, I feared as though misogyny and racism would tip things significantly in Trump’s favor. I don’t think it has. ---
**Author:** ![Irishman](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/i/b487fb/32.png) [@Irishman](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Irishman)\ **Post date:** [October 20, 2024, 4:47pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-can-donald-trump-win-at-this-point/1005351/2994 "2024-10-20T16:47:49Z")
> [@LSLGuy](#): > > They are voting for (R), not for trump or Vance or in prior years Bush, or Romney, or McCain, or Nixon, or Reagan or … They are voting for (R) and that sort of thinking accounts for roughly 50% of the population who ever vote. This very much. > [@Aeschines](#): > > So it seems he kind of bullshitted his way through this. So unlike Biden… No, I would say he changed his mind based on the status of the country. In 2020, he felt defeating Trump would put Trump in the rearview and the Republican Party would move on. That didn’t happen. He also hoped to restore normalcy to politics, or at least the function of the government. The Speaker fiasco proved that hasn’t happened. I think he got too caught up in the idea it was his burden to fix everything before handing over the reins. The post-covid and Ukraine War economy needed more time. _He_ needed to fix it. > [@DigitalC](#): > > It’s just the level of polarization we have in the country at the moment, not even a Republican thing. I personally do not see a way I would ever vote R at any level for the rest of my life, the only election were my preference matters is the primaries. In my youth, when things seemed sane, voting R here and there didn’t seem so bad. But I decided their allegiance to the religious right was enough to preclude my vote. Then came the Tea Party and the Ted Cruz’s, the “my primary candidate is too moderate” faction. Now we have Trump, MAGA, and the nutjobs, dumbasses, and authoritarians in charge of their party. Nope. I’ve also become more informed on politics and the reality of Party goals. I’ve discovered my identity is much further left than I was aware. No more R for me. Could I stand a Romney or McCain type (i.e. normal R) presidency? Yes, because they might push an agenda I disagree with, they still believe in democracy. But I wouldn’t take a certain Romney over the election we have now. If the election doesn’t work out, I’ll have the consolation that this was all hypothetical and I didn’t have the power to make that decision. > [@flurb](#): > > Remember, the situation he was in at the time was heading into the Iowa caucuses and New Hampshire primaries, whose voters are disproportionately college-educated, white progressives. Hard as it may be to remember, this group was not sold on Biden at all. Letting anonymous “insiders” speculate to a journalist about whether he would run again could have helped this group swallow his candidacy as a necessary short-term expedient without actually committing him to anything. Interesting. I don’t recall the timing but do recall the suggestion he would be a one-termer. ---
**Author:** ![LSLGuy](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/lslguy/32/5813_2.png) [@LSLGuy](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/LSLGuy)\ **Post date:** [October 20, 2024, 4:50pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-can-donald-trump-win-at-this-point/1005351/2995 "2024-10-20T16:50:40Z")
> [@Irishman](#): > > No, I would say he changed his mind based on the status of the country. In 2020, he felt defeating Trump would put Trump in the rearview and the Republican Party would move on. That didn’t happen. > > He also hoped to restore normalcy to politics, or at least the function of the government. The Speaker fiasco proved that hasn’t happened. > > I think he got too caught up in the idea it was his burden to fix everything before handing over the reins. The post-covid and Ukraine War economy needed more time. _He_ needed to fix it. Agree w this take. A LOT. His “transition” remark was about moving from trump-crazy back to D vs R business as usual with a competent executive and a competent bureaucracy following the law. ---
**Author:** ![Aspenglow](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/aspenglow/32/76_2.png) [@Aspenglow](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Aspenglow)\ **Post date:** [October 20, 2024, 4:52pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-can-donald-trump-win-at-this-point/1005351/2996 "2024-10-20T16:52:38Z")
Moderating: > [@Aeschines](#): > > So it seems he kind of bullshitted his way through this. So unlike Biden… > [@Irishman](#): > > No, I would say he changed his mind based on the status of the country. In 2020, he felt defeating Trump would put Trump in the rearview and the Republican Party would move on. That didn’t happen. You two are far from the only ones engaging in the hijack about what Biden said about running for a second term, so I’m not singling you out. But your posts are carrying the hijack along, so I highlighted them. Please drop this discussion in this thread. You know the drill. > **How to Reply as a linked Topic** > > Click Reply, in the upper left corner of the reply window is the reply type button, _looks like a curving arrow point to the right_. > > Choose **Reply as linked topic** and it starts a new thread. As an example, you can choose GD, IMHO or The Pit for it. > > That is actually the best method. ---
**Author:** ![Kolak\_of\_Twilo](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/kolak_of_twilo/32/73_2.png) [@Kolak\_of\_Twilo](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Kolak_of_Twilo)\ **Post date:** [October 20, 2024, 5:07pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-can-donald-trump-win-at-this-point/1005351/2997 "2024-10-20T17:07:19Z")
Yeah. I think we have good reason to believe misogyny at least is playing a role in how close this thing is. Plenty of polling data shows Harris is way behind with male voters of all races. ---
**Author:** ![MyFootsZZZ](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/myfootszzz/32/12580_2.png) [@MyFootsZZZ](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/MyFootsZZZ)\ **Post date:** [October 20, 2024, 5:13pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-can-donald-trump-win-at-this-point/1005351/2998 "2024-10-20T17:13:56Z")
Damn. That’s upsetting. She’s handled being a female candidate perfectly, if you ask me. ---
**Author:** ![BobLibDem](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/boblibdem/32/3149_2.png) [@BobLibDem](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/BobLibDem)\ **Post date:** [October 20, 2024, 5:35pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-can-donald-trump-win-at-this-point/1005351/2999 "2024-10-20T17:35:14Z")
He can win because he’s the only candidate talking about what’s foremost in the minds of the voters- the size of Arnold Palmer’s penis. ---
**Author:** ![Sherrerd](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/sherrerd/32/8_2.png) [@Sherrerd](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Sherrerd)\ **Post date:** [October 20, 2024, 7:56pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-can-donald-trump-win-at-this-point/1005351/3000 "2024-10-20T19:56:38Z")
> [@Kolak\_of\_Twilo](#): > > Yeah. I think we have good reason to believe misogyny at least is playing a role in how close this thing is. Plenty of polling data shows Harris is way behind with male voters of all races. Maybe. But remember that Hillary Clinton won more votes than did Trump. Due to white anxiety/white supremacism, it’s quite possible that if a man were running for the Democrats (instead of Harris), **the polls would be just as close**. Because the anxious/supremacist white voters know perfectly well that Democrats are NOT going to put non-whites, non-straights, non-males, and non-Christians in ‘their proper place.’ A Democrat—even if he’s white male straight Christian—is _not going to hurt the people that right-wing voters want to see hurt._ And there are millions of those anti-Democratic Party voters. Millions. Yes, it’s true that there are die-hard misogynists among both Republicans and Democrats. But the Clinton/Trump numbers convince me that they are less a factor than is the white anxiety/supremacy aspect. ---
**Author:** ![Aeschines](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/aeschines/32/16251_2.png) [@Aeschines](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Aeschines)\ **Post date:** [October 20, 2024, 8:05pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-can-donald-trump-win-at-this-point/1005351/3001 "2024-10-20T20:05:24Z")
Yeah, that’s nucking futs and not the kind of nuts that plays well to his base, I think. Plus, Trump has been cussing a lot lately, which he didn’t use to do. I have heard that such loss of inhibition is another sign of dementia. And of course, those are just two things–there is a lot more I don’t bother to talk about here. The man is fading fast. ---
**Author:** ![LSLGuy](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/lslguy/32/5813_2.png) [@LSLGuy](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/LSLGuy)\ **Post date:** [October 20, 2024, 8:08pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-can-donald-trump-win-at-this-point/1005351/3002 "2024-10-20T20:08:59Z")
But is he fading fast enough? At the risk of launching a CT, is he being fed stupid pills by Musk / Thiel henchmen intending to finish killing off enough brain cells that trump becomes inert after the voting but before he has a chance to take office? So that their hand-picked minion Vance is the prez from day 1? And maybe they overshot a wee bit on the dose and are now scrambling to keep him coherent enough long enough to not lose the vote itself? ---
**Author:** ![Euphonious\_Polemic](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/euphonious_polemic/32/3002_2.png) [@Euphonious\_Polemic](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Euphonious_Polemic)\ **Post date:** [October 20, 2024, 8:09pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-can-donald-trump-win-at-this-point/1005351/3003 "2024-10-20T20:09:47Z")
> [@Kolak\_of\_Twilo](#): > > Yeah. I think we have good reason to believe misogyny at least is playing a role in how close this thing is. Plenty of polling data shows Harris is way behind with male voters of all races. I think this is the crux of the matter. Many voters have a real problem voting for a woman for president. I think this was a large part of the Hillary Clinton loss, and will be a large factor in this election as well. ---
**Author:** ![Sherrerd](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/sherrerd/32/8_2.png) [@Sherrerd](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Sherrerd)\ **Post date:** [October 20, 2024, 8:20pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-can-donald-trump-win-at-this-point/1005351/3004 "2024-10-20T20:20:26Z")
> [@Aeschines](#): > > The man is fading fast. It doesn’t matter to his voters. He could curse the mothers of every rally attendee in a barrage of profanity, scream “Suck This Rosie O’Donnell,” fall down on the stage, and foam at the mouth—and they would still vote for him. There is nothing he can do in the next two weeks that would dissuade his voters from making the effort to vote for him. (Well, not _nothing_: he could, for instance, come out in favor of reparations to every black American and full health care for every trans person. That would discourage his voters. But there is literally zero chance of that happening, no matter how fast his brain may be shutting down. As his brain shuts down he will become _more_ Trumpy, not less.) ---
**Author:** ![Aeschines](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/aeschines/32/16251_2.png) [@Aeschines](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Aeschines)\ **Post date:** [October 20, 2024, 8:42pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-can-donald-trump-win-at-this-point/1005351/3005 "2024-10-20T20:42:56Z")
If Trump were to win, I don’t think Vance’s backers would be waiting very long… ---
**Author:** ![Aeschines](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/aeschines/32/16251_2.png) [@Aeschines](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Aeschines)\ **Post date:** [October 20, 2024, 8:44pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-can-donald-trump-win-at-this-point/1005351/3006 "2024-10-20T20:44:12Z")
Right. _His_ voters. If his base is already putting him over the top, then there is no hope–but they weren’t able to do so in 2020. Thus, Trump’s death spiral can influence voters that are not already “his.” ---
**Author:** ![Aeschines](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/aeschines/32/16251_2.png) [@Aeschines](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Aeschines)\ **Post date:** [October 20, 2024, 9:21pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-can-donald-trump-win-at-this-point/1005351/3007 "2024-10-20T21:21:24Z")
Many posters here have indicated that they find me irrationally positive. Guys, _this_ is what positive looks like: > **[Despite the Republican BS Headline Factory, Harris is Poised to Win Big](https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2024/10/19/2277899/-Despite-the-Republican-BS-Headline-Factory-Harris-is-Poised-to-Win-Big?pm_campaign=front_page&pm_source=trending&pm_medium=web)** > > Donald Trump's campaign has understood social media in a way Democrats, many of whom are longing for the glory days of 2008, have not. Earlier this week, Kamala Harris gave an interview on Fox News where she called out Brett Baier's... Irrational? I’m not sure. ---
**Author:** ![Aeschines](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/aeschines/32/16251_2.png) [@Aeschines](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Aeschines)\ **Post date:** [October 20, 2024, 9:25pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-can-donald-trump-win-at-this-point/1005351/3008 "2024-10-20T21:25:33Z")
Also, how the polls and Polymarket are being gamed by RW techbros: > **[We Are Leading in the Early Vote, And Yes, Like 2022, the Polling Averages...](https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2024/10/19/2277924/-We-Are-Leading-in-the-Early-Vote-And-Yes-Like-2022-the-Polling-Averages-are-Being-Skewed?pm_campaign=front_page&pm_source=trending&pm_medium=web)** > > Simon Rosenberg Hopium Chronicles offers this: “Since late August more than 70 right-aligned polls have been dropped into the polling averages. The two states that have been worked the hardest are North Carolina and Pennsylvania. In October of the... Since August, 16 out of 27 polls in PA have been from right-leaning pollsters, according to the article. I will say again (we discussed it way upstream), it’s a disgrace and a massive conflict of interest that Nate Silver is involved in Polymarket. ---
**Author:** ![Velocity](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/velocity/32/18006_2.png) [@Velocity](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Velocity)\ **Post date:** [October 20, 2024, 9:34pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-can-donald-trump-win-at-this-point/1005351/3009 "2024-10-20T21:34:10Z")
> [@DesertDog](#): > > - When the EC votes are counted we get a repeat if J6 only this time the Oathbreakers and Loud Boys are better organized, having learned from 2020. How exactly? The Capitol building is going to be an absolute fortress this time around. Even a small army wouldn’t be able to break into it. Furthermore, merely disrupting the electoral-vote counting process wouldn’t be enough to stop someone from becoming president. It might be interrupted, but one or way or another it would resume and be done. It’s not like some treasure movie plot where if you steal the box containing the ballots, the election result is then up for grabs. [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-can-donald-trump-win-at-this-point/1005351.md?page=149) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-can-donald-trump-win-at-this-point/1005351.md?page=151)