# How can Donald Trump win at this point? **URL:** \ **Category:** Politics & Elections\ **Tags:** trump, kamala-harris\ **Created:** [August 6, 2024, 9:13pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-can-donald-trump-win-at-this-point/1005351 "2024-08-06T21:13:43Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 151
**Author:** ![Stratocaster](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/stratocaster/32/16393_2.png) [@Stratocaster](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Stratocaster)\ **Post date:** [October 20, 2024, 9:42pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-can-donald-trump-win-at-this-point/1005351/3010 "2024-10-20T21:42:29Z")
Exactly. National Guardsmen five deep with weapons of war and instructions to quell any attempted assault, including lethal force. Also, while there will always be pockets of “patriots” looking to crime their way into glory and history, the first go-around didn’t go they way they thought. Over 1,000 people in prison and nary a pardon from Dear Leader. I just don’t think the delusion of success will have the same momentum this time. “Let’s all fight our way into the history books!” “You go without me. I’ll check it out on the news.” ---
**Author:** ![DSeid](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/dseid/32/20194_2.png) [@DSeid](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DSeid)\ **Post date:** [October 20, 2024, 9:57pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-can-donald-trump-win-at-this-point/1005351/3011 "2024-10-20T21:57:17Z")
I’m going to ignore the delusional crap about the polls being skewed (which belongs in the polling thread where it, and the falsehood that the '22 aggregations were way off, have been debunked repetitively), but how does Kos conclude so confidently that Ds are ahead in the early vote? (It’s his headline but nothing in the body that even says anything about it?) ---
**Author:** ![DSeid](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/dseid/32/20194_2.png) [@DSeid](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DSeid)\ **Post date:** [October 20, 2024, 11:14pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-can-donald-trump-win-at-this-point/1005351/3012 "2024-10-20T23:14:22Z")
> [@DSeid](#): > > how does Kos conclude so confidently that Ds are ahead in the early vote? (It’s his headline but nothing in the body that even says anything about it?) So since he didn’t provide anything I’ve dug on my own. Some states keep track of party registration of early voters. Results in [2020](https://electproject.github.io/Early-Vote-2020G/index.html) were 44.8% D and 30.5% R. [Current](https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2024-elections/early-vote) is running 46% D to 36% R according to NBC. Varies by swing state with solid leads in the Blue Wall states and even to losing by registration in the Sun Belt states. Not sure I’d endorse that as winning (compared to 2020 numbers) but I am more encouraged than discouraged? ---
**Author:** ![Aeschines](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/aeschines/32/16251_2.png) [@Aeschines](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Aeschines)\ **Post date:** [October 20, 2024, 11:35pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-can-donald-trump-win-at-this-point/1005351/3013 "2024-10-20T23:35:30Z")
Oh how _salty_ of you. j/k, I respect your clear knowledge on this topic! The canceled Red Wave of 2022 is a very strong narrative. It’s been debunked? Sincere request: direct me to a good starter post in the polls thread, and I will read. Btw, I don’t have a strong opinion myself about the rightness and wrongness of the polls. That seems to be something about which even strong-kung-fu statisticians can disagree, and I don’t qualify. My point, however, was to say that however much people have found me to be foolishly exuberant in this thread (and I don’t really think I have been), there are kos diarists (in this case a diarist, not a staff writer), YouTube pundits, major media pundits, etc., who put me to shame in that category. ---
**Author:** ![velomont](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/v/8491ac/32.png) [@velomont](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/velomont)\ **Post date:** [October 21, 2024, 12:09am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-can-donald-trump-win-at-this-point/1005351/3014 "2024-10-21T00:09:14Z")
Watching all of this from Canada, I have no doubt that I don’t understand all of the nuances, however, CBC has an article (link below) about the outsize role that the Muslim voters have (or could have) in Michigan. Apparently a significant number of those interviewed want to punish the Dems for their response to the post-Oct 7 Israel/Palestine conflict. And many intend to vote for Trump or third party candidates. On the TV version of the linked story the general sentiment was about making the Dems “accountable” and, in the words of one voter: if Trump wins “so be it.” So, to answer OP’s question, a lot of voters are either stupid, selfish in their motivations, or incapable of critical thought (note: I’m not say that Muslims are necessarily like that, I’m saying that those particular voters (and millions of others)) are. They are clearly not thinking through the complexities of how the world works nor the consequences of their own decisions. > **[Arab American and Muslim voters helped Biden win in 2020. This year, they...](https://www.cbc.ca/news/world/arab-american-muslim-voters-abandon-harris-michigan-1.7356880)** > > Many Arab American and Muslim voters are shifting away from the Democratic Party because they feel betrayed, forgotten and angry over the Biden administration’s handling of the Middle East crisis. The sentiment in Michigan could have an outsize... ---
**Author:** ![Odesio](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/odesio/32/20003_2.png) [@Odesio](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Odesio)\ **Post date:** [October 21, 2024, 12:13am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-can-donald-trump-win-at-this-point/1005351/3015 "2024-10-21T00:13:50Z")
> [@Aeschines](#): > > Many posters here have indicated that they find me irrationally positive. Guys, _this_ is what positive looks like: I’m cautiously optimistic. I do think Harris going to win, but I’m not going to breathe a sigh of relief until the election is over. I’m prepared for plenty of skullduggery on the part of the Republicans though. ---
**Author:** ![Velocity](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/velocity/32/18006_2.png) [@Velocity](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Velocity)\ **Post date:** [October 21, 2024, 12:33am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-can-donald-trump-win-at-this-point/1005351/3016 "2024-10-21T00:33:41Z")
> [@velomont](#): > > So, to answer OP’s question, a lot of voters are either stupid, selfish in their motivations, or incapable of critical thought Not to derail the thread, but you’re basically saying that Arab/Muslim voters should look at Democratic policies that have indirectly led to, or encouraged, the death of 50,000 Palestinians and smile, nod, clap, cheer and say “Thank you for only killing some of our family as opposed to your rival who’d kill even more.” Nobody here on this message board would behave that way in a similar scenario in real life, and it’s not reasonable for us to expect Palestine-supporting voters to do the same. ---
**Author:** ![bordelond](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/bordelond/32/150_2.png) [@bordelond](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/bordelond)\ **Post date:** [October 21, 2024, 12:43am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-can-donald-trump-win-at-this-point/1005351/3017 "2024-10-21T00:43:48Z")
> [@DSeid](#): > > So since he didn’t provide anything I’ve dug on my own. Some states keep track of party registration of early voters. > > Results in [2020](https://electproject.github.io/Early-Vote-2020G/index.html) were 44.8% D and 30.5% R. > > [Current](https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2024-elections/early-vote) is running 46% D to 36% R according to NBC. Varies by swing state with solid leads in the Blue Wall states and even to losing by registration in the Sun Belt states. I won’t be able to readily deep-dive into this on my phone … but there is analysis out there based on percentage of early votes mailed in/cast broken down by party cohorts (where available). In some states, mail-in votes have to be explicitly requested, and the number of requests by Democratic/Republican/Independent voters plays into the early-vote analysis, as well. Googling terms like “Pennsylvania, banking votes, early voting” should bring up some early-voting analysis. It’s brought up from time to time on liberal Substack - some in the main articles but more in the respective Comments sections. ---
**Author:** ![Aeschines](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/aeschines/32/16251_2.png) [@Aeschines](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Aeschines)\ **Post date:** [October 21, 2024, 12:47am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-can-donald-trump-win-at-this-point/1005351/3018 "2024-10-21T00:47:34Z")
> [@velomont](#): > > Apparently a significant number of those interviewed want to punish the Dems for their response to the post-Oct 7 Israel/Palestine conflict. And many intend to vote for Trump or third party candidates. On the TV version of the linked story the general sentiment was about making the Dems “accountable” and, in the words of one voter: if Trump wins “so be it.” Ah street food. We love it. It’s authentic, real, amazing. Not to mention delicious! And it’s just so good until it’s not. Israel, in its current incarnation under Netanyahu, is just so skilled at handing the US shit sandwich after shit sandwich that we have to choke down with a smile. I do think that Biden did his best to handle the situation, but surely Muslim (and Jewish, for that matter) Americans understand that the US is in a no-win situation. We can’t support either side, or fail to support either side, without a lot of people getting pissed off. ---
**Author:** ![DSeid](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/dseid/32/20194_2.png) [@DSeid](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DSeid)\ **Post date:** [October 21, 2024, 12:50am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-can-donald-trump-win-at-this-point/1005351/3019 "2024-10-21T00:50:50Z")
> [@Aeschines](#): > > The canceled Red Wave of 2022 is a very strong narrative. It’s been debunked? Sincere request: direct me to a good starter post in the polls thread, and I will read. Start from here. > [@Polling: Unskewed Polls and comments on polling (moved from Harris Thread)](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/polling-unskewed-polls-and-comments-on-polling-moved-from-harris-thread/1005665/234): > > You mean … omigosh! Polls did not call every race right?!!! It is not a quibble to dispute the false narrative of a predicted Red wave, especially when it is being used to imply that polls are predictably skewed in a direction. Reality check as linked a bit above: polls almost always systemically err one way or the other, in Senate race 5.4%, and House races 6.1% on average. Both directions occur apparently randomly. ‘22 was actually a better performing year than usual. ‘22 was as on the money for polling as it gets. Some pundits selected polls that allowed them to tell a narrative that drove clicks, but the forecasts based on the aggregated polling were amazingly good. ---
**Author:** ![DSeid](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/dseid/32/20194_2.png) [@DSeid](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DSeid)\ **Post date:** [October 21, 2024, 12:53am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-can-donald-trump-win-at-this-point/1005351/3020 "2024-10-21T00:53:25Z")
> [@bordelond](#): > > but there is analysis out there based on percentage of early votes mailed in/cast broken down by party cohorts (where available). Um. I think that’s what is on the post you are responding to? ---
**Author:** ![Aeschines](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/aeschines/32/16251_2.png) [@Aeschines](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Aeschines)\ **Post date:** [October 21, 2024, 12:54am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-can-donald-trump-win-at-this-point/1005351/3021 "2024-10-21T00:54:09Z")
Thank you, I will study up. ---
**Author:** ![bordelond](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/bordelond/32/150_2.png) [@bordelond](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/bordelond)\ **Post date:** [October 21, 2024, 12:56am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-can-donald-trump-win-at-this-point/1005351/3022 "2024-10-21T00:56:59Z")
> [@DSeid](#): > > Um. I think that’s what is on the post you are responding to? Right … I’m struggling to explain it without looking at the material. I’ll see what I can turn up. ---
**Author:** ![DesertDog](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/desertdog/32/11503_2.png) [@DesertDog](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DesertDog)\ **Post date:** [October 21, 2024, 1:08am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-can-donald-trump-win-at-this-point/1005351/3023 "2024-10-21T01:08:15Z")
> [@SunUp](#): > > Why screw around? If you’ve got 2/3rd of each house of Congress in your pocket, just go straight to impeach/remove and be done with it. Don’t need 'em. Section 4 of the 25th amendment, > _Whenever the Vice President and a majority of either the principal officers of the executive departments or of such other body as Congress may by law provide, transmit to the President pro tempore of the Senate and the Speaker of the House of Representatives their written declaration that the President is unable to discharge the powers and duties of his office, the Vice President shall immediately assume the powers and duties of the office as Acting President._ It then goes on to say, > _After that, when the President transmits to the President pro tempore of the Senate and the Speaker of the House of Representatives his written declaration that no inability exists, he shall resume the powers and duties of his office unless the Vice President and a majority of either the principal officers of the executive department or of such other body as Congress may by law provide, transmit within four days to the President pro tempore of the Senate and the Speaker of the House of Representatives their written declaration that the President is unable to discharge the powers and duties of his office. Thereupon Congress shall decide the issue, assembling within forty-eight hours for that purpose if not in session._ If Vance et al do the first can you imagine Trump or his team of crack lawyers putting together such a declaration _in writing_? ---
**Author:** ![The\_Other\_Waldo\_Pepper](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/the_other_waldo_pepper/32/12370_2.png) [@The\_Other\_Waldo\_Pepper](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/The_Other_Waldo_Pepper)\ **Post date:** [October 21, 2024, 1:25am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-can-donald-trump-win-at-this-point/1005351/3024 "2024-10-21T01:25:55Z")
> [@DesertDog](#): > > If Vance et al do the first can you imagine Trump or his team of crack lawyers putting together such a declaration _in writing_? _“I declare that no inability exists.”_ Yeah, I guess I can see someone writing that. ---
**Author:** ![bordelond](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/bordelond/32/150_2.png) [@bordelond](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/bordelond)\ **Post date:** [October 21, 2024, 1:27am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-can-donald-trump-win-at-this-point/1005351/3025 "2024-10-21T01:27:41Z")
> [@DSeid](#): > > > [@bordelond](#): > > > > but there is analysis out there based on percentage of early votes mailed in/cast broken down by party cohorts (where available). > > Um. I think that’s what is on the post you are responding to? Tom Bonier’s TargetSmart site is commonly cited for early voting analysis. TargetSmart models votes beyond just party registration— I don’t yet know all the nuts and bolts. > **[TargetSmart's Early Vote Dashboard](https://targetearly.targetsmart.com/g2024?state=PA&view_type=state)** > > Early and absentee voting data is more important than ever. TargetSmart has created a site to paint a picture of the votes cast thus far. Check back often for updates. EDIT: **[Here’s some more](https://www.hopiumchronicles.com/p/working-hard-and-closing-strong-my/comment/72995829)** that was posted to Hopium’s Comments section (I know, I know … but this guy does a good job explaining this stuff). ---
**Author:** ![DSeid](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/dseid/32/20194_2.png) [@DSeid](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DSeid)\ **Post date:** [October 21, 2024, 2:04am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-can-donald-trump-win-at-this-point/1005351/3026 "2024-10-21T02:04:02Z")
The TargetEarly site is useful but depressing. Compared to 2020 same point the R side seems to be relatively killing it. PA for example: D down from 74% to 65 and R up from 18 to 27%. Crap. Worse in Sun Belt. AZ? D down from 46 to 35% and R up from 32 to 44%. Double crap. That said I can’t get too discouraged by this. Last election was especially weird for early and mail in. Covid and Trump discouraging his voters from using the option both likely contributed to a greater Democratic percentage. Hopium of course celebrates how great the D side is doing!!! ---
**Author:** ![PhillyGuy](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/p/ed655f/32.png) [@PhillyGuy](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/PhillyGuy)\ **Post date:** [October 21, 2024, 2:07am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-can-donald-trump-win-at-this-point/1005351/3027 "2024-10-21T02:07:59Z")
From Nate Silver today: [24 reasons that Trump could win](https://www.natesilver.net/p/24-reasons-that-trump-could-win) Most of these reasons have already been discussed in the thread, but this one is underappreciated: > [@](#): > > Incumbent parties worldwide are doing [very poorly](https://www.axios.com/2024/06/06/world-elections-anti-incumbent-leaders-backlash), and the [historical incumbency advantage has diminished](https://www.natesilver.net/p/the-incumbency-advantage-is-disappearing) to the point where it may now be an incumbency handicap instead given [perpetually negative perceptions about the direction of the country](https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/other/direction_of_country_2-6181.html). ---
**Author:** ![DrDeth](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/b487fb/32.png) [@DrDeth](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DrDeth)\ **Post date:** [October 21, 2024, 2:13am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-can-donald-trump-win-at-this-point/1005351/3028 "2024-10-21T02:13:14Z")
> [@Aeschines](#): > > Irrational? I’m not sure. No, not irrational. Optimistic? Yes. But then there is this from your cite-_Turnout to date has been 11% in the Democrats favor._ > [@Odesio](#): > > I’m cautiously optimistic. I do think Harris going to win, but I’m not going to breathe a sigh of relief until the election is over. Same here. I am pretty sure Harris will win, but if it is a close win, you know there will be shenanigans. The House looks to be Blue. The Senate? 51 GOP or 50/50. 50/50 is a win, and 51 is not insurmountable. > [@Velocity](#): > > Not to derail the thread, but you’re basically saying that Arab/Muslim voters should look at Democratic policies that have indirectly led to, or encouraged, the death of 50,000 Palestinians and smile, This is simply not true. Netanyahu could have done what he did in Gaza without any US help. And, the House that voted the Israel aid id a GOP house. ---
**Author:** ![DSeid](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/dseid/32/20194_2.png) [@DSeid](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DSeid)\ **Post date:** [October 21, 2024, 2:19am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-can-donald-trump-win-at-this-point/1005351/3029 "2024-10-21T02:19:13Z")
Thing is though that incumbency is unclear right now. Harris was part of the administration but was not the president and Trump is what was. Bottom line is that Harris is winning the “change” perspective with the voters. [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-can-donald-trump-win-at-this-point/1005351.md?page=150) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-can-donald-trump-win-at-this-point/1005351.md?page=152)