# How can Donald Trump win at this point? **URL:** \ **Category:** Politics & Elections\ **Tags:** trump, kamala-harris\ **Created:** [August 6, 2024, 9:13pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-can-donald-trump-win-at-this-point/1005351 "2024-08-06T21:13:43Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 152
**Author:** ![DSeid](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/dseid/32/20194_2.png) [@DSeid](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DSeid)\ **Post date:** [October 21, 2024, 2:20am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-can-donald-trump-win-at-this-point/1005351/3030 "2024-10-21T02:20:59Z")
> [@DrDeth](#): > > But then there is this from your cite-_Turnout to date has been 11% in the Democrats favor._ Less than it was in 2020. Not surprising given last time was Covid and Trump discouraging his voters from early and mail in voting, but not cause to celebrate either. ---
**Author:** ![velomont](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/v/8491ac/32.png) [@velomont](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/velomont)\ **Post date:** [October 21, 2024, 2:27am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-can-donald-trump-win-at-this-point/1005351/3031 "2024-10-21T02:27:41Z")
> [@Velocity](#): > > Not to derail the thread, but you’re basically saying that Arab/Muslim voters should look at Democratic policies that have indirectly led to, or encouraged, the death of 50,000 Palestinians and smile, nod, clap, cheer and say “Thank you for only killing some of our family as opposed to your rival who’d kill even more.” Did you actually read my post, where I said: > [@velomont](#): > > (note: I’m not say that Muslims are necessarily like that, I’m saying that those particular voters (and millions of others)) are. IOW, in this instance a particular type of voter happens to be Muslim. There probably also millions of the same type of voter who happen to be Catholic, Protestant, Hindu, atheistic, agnostic or whatever other cohort you want. Nor am I saying that they should “smile, nod, clap, cheer” etc. What I am saying, however, is that all voters should carefully consider what another Trump presidency will or won’t do. In this case, for example, do they honestly think that Trump will magically fix this? ---
**Author:** ![velomont](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/v/8491ac/32.png) [@velomont](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/velomont)\ **Post date:** [October 21, 2024, 2:30am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-can-donald-trump-win-at-this-point/1005351/3032 "2024-10-21T02:30:30Z")
> [@Aeschines](#): > > Ah street food. We love it. It’s authentic, real, amazing. Not to mention delicious! And it’s just so good until it’s not. I have absolutely no idea what this means. Are you sarcastically slagging me or what? All I did was present something I read. ---
**Author:** ![Der\_Trihs](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/der_trihs/32/233_2.png) [@Der\_Trihs](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Der_Trihs)\ **Post date:** [October 21, 2024, 2:43am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-can-donald-trump-win-at-this-point/1005351/3033 "2024-10-21T02:43:47Z")
> [@Velocity](#): > > Not to derail the thread, but you’re basically saying that Arab/Muslim voters should look at Democratic policies that have indirectly led to, or encouraged, the death of 50,000 Palestinians and smile, nod, clap, cheer and say “Thank you for only killing some of our family as opposed to your rival who’d kill even more.” No, they are saying that these people shouldn’t vote for killing even more Palestinians (and quite possibly themselves), which is what voting for Trump means. What will they have accomplished if they get Trump in and he encourages Israel to ramp up the killing? Or starts rounding up American Muslims like themselves? This is basically the same logic as somebody protesting poor health care for their family by shooting their family and the neighbors. ---
**Author:** ![Aeschines](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/aeschines/32/16251_2.png) [@Aeschines](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Aeschines)\ **Post date:** [October 21, 2024, 2:45am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-can-donald-trump-win-at-this-point/1005351/3034 "2024-10-21T02:45:22Z")
Nope, I was slagging Israel. ---
**Author:** ![PhillyGuy](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/p/ed655f/32.png) [@PhillyGuy](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/PhillyGuy)\ **Post date:** [October 21, 2024, 2:57am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-can-donald-trump-win-at-this-point/1005351/3035 "2024-10-21T02:57:41Z")
> [@DSeid](#): > > Thing is though that incumbency is unclear right now. Harris was part of the administration but was not the president and Trump is what was. Bottom line is that Harris is winning the “change” perspective with the voters. I hope you are correct but missed those polls. Instead I see: [65% instead think Harris mainly would continue Biden’s policies, vs. 33% who say she’d chart a new course](https://abcnews.go.com/Politics/voters-question-harris-pitch-agent-change-poll/story?id=114686276) SDMB participants are obviously non-representative, but, TTBOMR, 100 percent of posters here think Trump winning would result in bigger changes. I suspect we are in an era where party control of the American presidency usually switches every four years. If Harris wins solidly, I’ll have been proved wrong. However, if she wins narrowly, I’ll think we still are in a one-term era, with 2024 an exception because the GOP nominated a weak candidate. ---
**Author:** ![Johanna](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/johanna/32/8318_2.png) [@Johanna](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Johanna)\ **Post date:** [October 21, 2024, 4:47am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-can-donald-trump-win-at-this-point/1005351/3036 "2024-10-21T04:47:52Z")
The traditional message is “cutting off one’s nose to spite one’s face.” “I’ll cut off my nose to spite my face! _That_’ll show 'em!” ---
**Author:** ![Odesio](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/odesio/32/20003_2.png) [@Odesio](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Odesio)\ **Post date:** [October 21, 2024, 5:25am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-can-donald-trump-win-at-this-point/1005351/3037 "2024-10-21T05:25:06Z")
> [@Der\_Trihs](#): > > No, they are saying that these people shouldn’t vote for killing even more Palestinians (and quite possibly themselves), which is what voting for Trump means. What will they have accomplished if they get Trump in and he encourages Israel to ramp up the killing? Or starts rounding up American Muslims like themselves? Even if they think Harris isn’t going to do anything for Palestine, one of Trump’s planks is the mass deportation of immigrants, he’s even threatened legal immigrants like the Haitians in Springfield, and Trump has tried to block people from entering the United States from majority Muslim countries, so what makes them think Trump isn’t going to deport them or otherwise make their lives miserable. ---
**Author:** ![DSeid](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/dseid/32/20194_2.png) [@DSeid](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DSeid)\ **Post date:** [October 21, 2024, 7:03am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-can-donald-trump-win-at-this-point/1005351/3038 "2024-10-21T07:03:49Z")
> [@PhillyGuy](#): > > I hope you are correct but missed those polls. Here’s the one I was recalling. Gift link. > **[Poll Finds Harris Rising as She Challenges Trump on Change](https://www.nytimes.com/2024/10/08/us/politics/harris-trump-poll-national.html?unlocked_article_code=1.T04.Kxlu.no_1URanQSUZ&smid=nytcore-ios-share&referringSource=articleShare)** > > A national Times/Siena poll found Kamala Harris with a slim lead over Donald J. Trump. Voters were more likely to see her, not Mr. Trump, as a break from the status quo. > [@](#): > > … the Times/Siena poll found voters said Ms. Harris was the candidate representing change in this election, 46 percent to 44 percent. … > > … Ms. Harris, who is 59, was seen by a wide margin, 61 percent to 29 percent, as the change candidate among voters who are not white. Younger voters see her as the change candidate by a lopsided margin: 58 percent to 34 percent. ---
**Author:** ![Velocity](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/velocity/32/18006_2.png) [@Velocity](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Velocity)\ **Post date:** [October 21, 2024, 7:08am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-can-donald-trump-win-at-this-point/1005351/3039 "2024-10-21T07:08:58Z")
Exactly. This race was always going to pull towards Kamala in her favor in the end - and she was already in pole position. This is going to be one of those “Why did we think it would be close?” contests in hindsight when all done. ---
**Author:** ![velomont](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/v/8491ac/32.png) [@velomont](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/velomont)\ **Post date:** [October 21, 2024, 8:10am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-can-donald-trump-win-at-this-point/1005351/3040 "2024-10-21T08:10:14Z")
Sort of like in 2016. ---
**Author:** ![BobLibDem](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/boblibdem/32/3149_2.png) [@BobLibDem](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/BobLibDem)\ **Post date:** [October 21, 2024, 12:00pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-can-donald-trump-win-at-this-point/1005351/3041 "2024-10-21T12:00:28Z")
> [@DSeid](#): > > The TargetEarly site is useful but depressing. > > Compared to 2020 same point the R side seems to be relatively killing it. > > PA for example: > > D down from 74% to 65 and R up from 18 to 27%. Crap. As I recall, in 2020 Republicans were told that voting early or voting by mail was un-American and made Baby Jesus cry. Now it seems more acceptable for them to pursue other means than same day in person voting on election day. It may be true that Republicans are still more likely than Democrats to vote only in person on election day, so we shouldn’t be discouraged to see Democrats not running up the score on early voting. ---
**Author:** ![LSLGuy](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/lslguy/32/5813_2.png) [@LSLGuy](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/LSLGuy)\ **Post date:** [October 21, 2024, 12:15pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-can-donald-trump-win-at-this-point/1005351/3042 "2024-10-21T12:15:01Z")
'Zactly. Behaviors change. Right now looking at what little preliminary data we have on early voting by party we have no way to separate the effect of greater / lesser enthusiasm for R versus D from the effect of greater / lesser enthusiasm for early voting itself. I sure would love to see few R votes happening early or later. But that’s not the world we live in. Turning to the question of Vance and his backers declaring Trump incompetent per the 25th Amendment … This post above has a nice cite of the process: > [@DesertDog](#): > > Don’t need 'em. Section 4 of the 25th amendment > … \With that intro … Has anyone stopped to think about how MAGA nation will react to being told their god-king is being ousted in a palace coup & bundled off to an asylum? To be replaced by somebody most of MAGA disdains at best and hates at worst? Since Congress must decide on the actual ouster, and this process plays out over the course of at least a few days (an eternity in the news cycle), how well do you suppose the various R factions will get along? Will the Ds choose to oust trump, or will they decide that Vance and his backers are a greater danger than an inert trump? Is this going to be a show of party discipline on either side, or will it be 535 individual chancers “voting their conscience”? I predict a lot of fireworks if things unfold that way. If trump just drops dead, ideally while on national TV, the craziness will be less. Far more than zero, but less. ---
**Author:** ![TeroSunbear](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/terosunbear/32/14748_2.png) [@TeroSunbear](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/TeroSunbear)\ **Post date:** [October 21, 2024, 12:39pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-can-donald-trump-win-at-this-point/1005351/3043 "2024-10-21T12:39:59Z")
Who knew? High home prices and despair take over Arizona vote. And Trump cutting tax for billionaires and giving us 200% tax on goods from Wal Mart will get him elected as the solution to these woes. Some just feel (the story) that Biden did nothing so will not vote at all. [American despair: In Arizona, high home prices and limited prospects shape voters' presidential pick](https://news.yahoo.com/news/american-despair-arizona-high-home-151927743.html) ---
**Author:** ![solost](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/solost/32/11776_2.png) [@solost](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/solost)\ **Post date:** [October 21, 2024, 1:51pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-can-donald-trump-win-at-this-point/1005351/3044 "2024-10-21T13:51:13Z")
How is this blithering idiot, who every day says something more ridiculous, hateful, and / or nonsensical than the last, not only holding onto his support but possibly gaining ground?!? What is wrong with people?? I wish I had the optimism and confidence of @Aeschines , @Velocity and some others here, but I am not liking this one bit. > **['Turning point': Analyst sees campaign 'masterclass' gain shocking boost for...](https://www.rawstory.com/turning-point-2669448538/)** > > A political analyst highlighted Monday a “turning point” in the 2024 election that’s seeing a surprising demographic shift strongly to Donald Trump.Writing in the New York Times, John Della Volpe — the director of polling at the Harvard Kennedy... **[Trump overtakes Harris for first time in Decision Desk HQ/The Hill election forecast](https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/4943975-trump-harris-election-forecast-shift/)** ---
**Author:** ![enipla](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/54ee81/32.png) [@enipla](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/enipla)\ **Post date:** [October 21, 2024, 3:01pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-can-donald-trump-win-at-this-point/1005351/3045 "2024-10-21T15:01:27Z")
It really is dammed if you do, dammed if you don’t. But justice should prevail. Otherwise, there is no point in any of this. If/when the MAGA’s throw their hissy fit. Deal with them as well. ---
**Author:** ![Akaj](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/akaj/32/145_2.png) [@Akaj](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Akaj)\ **Post date:** [October 21, 2024, 3:06pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-can-donald-trump-win-at-this-point/1005351/3046 "2024-10-21T15:06:10Z")
Saw a clever billboard in Wisconsin over the weekend. It simply read **You paid less under Trump.** I say it was clever because: - Prices always increase, so any presidential candidate could say it about any previous president, e.g., 2020 Biden could have said “You paid less under Obama.” - It implies that Trump will somehow lower prices, and stupid people might believe it. Will that message help win Wisconsin and other close states? It pisses me off that there might be enough stupid voters to make it so. ---
**Author:** ![Hawkeyeop](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/h/958977/32.png) [@Hawkeyeop](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Hawkeyeop)\ **Post date:** [October 21, 2024, 3:07pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-can-donald-trump-win-at-this-point/1005351/3047 "2024-10-21T15:07:08Z")
I understand you are irrational optimistic (and I do hope you are right), but I don’t see how anyone else can take this as a given. The idea that this is Harris race is to win isn’t really backed up by the evidence. It also put way too much blame on Harris if she does lose. She is running a solid campaign in tough circumstances, rather then blowing an easily winnable race. Just because we (and I’m certainly in that we) can’t understand why someone would vote for say Biden and then Trump, doesn’t mean these people don’t exist. I would encourage you to read the Nate Silver post on ways Trump could win posted earlier. He wrote about the bearish case for democrats and it is mainly a pushback on the point you are arguing. I don’t think they are all major factors, and this specifically isn’t looking at the positives for Democrats, but there is a lot of reasons that this is a tough political environment for Harris. ---
**Author:** ![LSLGuy](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/lslguy/32/5813_2.png) [@LSLGuy](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/LSLGuy)\ **Post date:** [October 21, 2024, 3:07pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-can-donald-trump-win-at-this-point/1005351/3048 "2024-10-21T15:07:58Z")
For sure we (both the government and the good citizens) should not do, or not do, anything on the basis of whether or not it provokes mob violence. If the yahoos are gonna riot, so be it. Let the riot police handle it. My point simply is there’s been a lot of glib conversation about trump failing to complete his term (hell, maybe even failing to complete getting to the election, much less winning it) and how that might work out. With no discussion about the reaction when that failure occurs of the CT-besotted masses of cult-followers he’s attracted. ---
**Author:** ![JKellyMap](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/jkellymap/32/15880_2.png) [@JKellyMap](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/JKellyMap)\ **Post date:** [October 21, 2024, 4:01pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-can-donald-trump-win-at-this-point/1005351/3049 "2024-10-21T16:01:35Z")
> [@Akaj](#): > > Saw a clever billboard in Wisconsin over the weekend. It simply read **You paid less under Trump.** Hah. As you said, as meaningful as “year names has lower values under Trump than under Biden.” [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-can-donald-trump-win-at-this-point/1005351.md?page=151) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-can-donald-trump-win-at-this-point/1005351.md?page=153)