# How can Donald Trump win at this point? **URL:** \ **Category:** Politics & Elections\ **Tags:** trump, kamala-harris\ **Created:** [August 6, 2024, 9:13pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-can-donald-trump-win-at-this-point/1005351 "2024-08-06T21:13:43Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 155
**Author:** ![Aeschines](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/aeschines/32/16251_2.png) [@Aeschines](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Aeschines)\ **Post date:** [October 22, 2024, 8:08pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-can-donald-trump-win-at-this-point/1005351/3090 "2024-10-22T20:08:31Z")
Thanks for the news updates, guys. I had seen that Trump was actually up to 51% on 538, but now it’s at 50/50 per [bordelond](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/bordelond)’s post above. Meanwhile, we have some good new polls in for Harris today: > **[Trump Vs. Harris 2024 Polls: Harris Leads In 4 Latest Surveys](https://www.forbes.com/sites/saradorn/2024/10/22/trump-vs-harris-2024-polls-harris-leads-by-2-points-in-latest-survey/)** > > Most polls indicate a tight race between Donald Trump and Kamala Harris. Farron Cousins does his analysis of various polls. He is a consistent optimist, but I don’t see much wrong with his reasoning (the video title is an exaggeration, but welcome to YouTube…): > **[Harris Is Crushing Trump With Independents And Early Voters](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=p7BH6eP5h6c%2F)** > > With the 2024 election just two weeks away, Vice President Kamala Harris is scoring some very important early victories over Donald Trump. The first is a new... Here’s something I said waaayyy back in this thread: that Trump is too sick and weak now to pull off a steal after this election, and there is no central fascist authority in place to make it happen, either. [Salon.com](http://Salon.com) catches up and says the same thing 🙂 : > **[Trump's apparent mental decline will make his next coup even harder to pull off](https://www.salon.com/2024/10/22/apparent-decline-might-make-his-next-coup-tougher-to-pull-off/)** > > Republican officials know Trump can't handle an interview — stealing an election is much harder Has the polling even caught up to Trump’s absolute meltdown, on which the legacy media are finally reporting? Arnold Palmer’s schlong–I mean, _really_? Also, Trump had an event in Florida, a Latinx forum–playing defense much? I continue to feel good–not about our country, which is full of morons voting for the fascist orange christ–but about our chances in the final two weeks. ---
**Author:** ![ShadowFacts](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/shadowfacts/32/2934_2.png) [@ShadowFacts](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/ShadowFacts)\ **Post date:** [October 22, 2024, 8:55pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-can-donald-trump-win-at-this-point/1005351/3091 "2024-10-22T20:55:31Z")
> [@Happy\_Lendervedder](#): > > An organized GOTV campaign _isn’t wishful thinking_. Very good point, as well as the link you posted later. GOTV is the meat and potatoes, unglamorous work that actually gets people to the voting booth. We’ll find out if her advantage in this area is enough to compensate for the utter ludicrousness of the American electorate. ---
**Author:** ![Aeschines](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/aeschines/32/16251_2.png) [@Aeschines](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Aeschines)\ **Post date:** [October 23, 2024, 4:01am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-can-donald-trump-win-at-this-point/1005351/3092 "2024-10-23T04:01:07Z")
Speaking of GOTV and other means to victory, here is a nice summary on kos of what the Harris campaign is doing to defeat the nazis: > **[Here's how top Harris advisers plan to win this thing](https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2024/10/22/2278658/-Here-s-how-top-Harris-advisers-plan-to-win-this-thing?pm_campaign=front_page&pm_source=top_news_slot_1&pm_medium=web)** > > David Plouffe was Barack Obama’s 2008 campaign manager and is now a senior adviser to Vice President Kamala Harris’ presidential campaign. He and other Harris advisers talked to CNN about the ... ---
**Author:** ![velomont](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/v/8491ac/32.png) [@velomont](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/velomont)\ **Post date:** [October 23, 2024, 11:06am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-can-donald-trump-win-at-this-point/1005351/3093 "2024-10-23T11:06:07Z")
> [@Aeschines](#): > > Trump is too sick and weak now to pull off a steal after this election I hate to do this but - cite? None of us, that I know of, are medical professionals who have actually conducted a full, in person, physical and mental health exam on him. For all we know he may just happen to be an obnoxious, toxic bully who looks and sounds like utter shit. He may or may not become incapacitated, he may or may not lose it so badly that even his supporters will dump him, or he may or may not drop dead. All of the predictions that any of those things will magically happen before the election are simply Pollyannish wishful thinking. Trump can still easily win, or lose, at this point; it’s simply up to the whims of a massive, uninformed, ignorant, selfish percentage of the electorate. ---
**Author:** ![Aeschines](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/aeschines/32/16251_2.png) [@Aeschines](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Aeschines)\ **Post date:** [October 23, 2024, 12:18pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-can-donald-trump-win-at-this-point/1005351/3094 "2024-10-23T12:18:42Z")
> [@velomont](#): > > I hate to do this but - cite? I posted the Salon article. Obviously, it’s a matter of perception and opinion. > [@](#): > > All of the predictions that any of those things will magically happen before the election are simply Pollyannish wishful thinking. My opinion is that he’s not in good enough shape to lead a steal if he should lose. That is not based on supposing that he will be completely incapacitated. I posted waaayyy up in the thread videos in which doctors do discuss signs of dementia in Trump. You can look up the Shrinking Trump videos on the Really American channel on YouTube if you are interested. > [@](#): > > Trump can still easily win, or lose, at this point; it’s simply up to the whims of a massive, uninformed, ignorant, selfish percentage of the electorate. Yes, but that’s a different point. ---
**Author:** ![velomont](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/v/8491ac/32.png) [@velomont](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/velomont)\ **Post date:** [October 23, 2024, 12:31pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-can-donald-trump-win-at-this-point/1005351/3095 "2024-10-23T12:31:55Z")
> [@Aeschines](#): > > in which doctors do discuss signs of dementia in Trump I’ve seen videos of a panel of experts discussing his fitness for office. The conclusions reached were devastating and frightening, however, none of that matters because Trumpists do not give a rat’s ass about anything factual that is negative towards Trump. Unless or until he actually dies he can still win this election; all the facts in the world are irrelevant. ---
**Author:** ![Aeschines](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/aeschines/32/16251_2.png) [@Aeschines](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Aeschines)\ **Post date:** [October 23, 2024, 12:40pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-can-donald-trump-win-at-this-point/1005351/3096 "2024-10-23T12:40:55Z")
Yes, but that’s besides the point of whether he’s well enough to pull off a steal. I agree that his followers are nazi fucking idiots who will follow him to oblivion. ---
**Author:** ![DSeid](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/dseid/32/20194_2.png) [@DSeid](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DSeid)\ **Post date:** [October 23, 2024, 4:54pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-can-donald-trump-win-at-this-point/1005351/3097 "2024-10-23T16:54:53Z")
His part is just to call for it to happen. He has minions who will try to execute plans they have. And it will fizzle whether he is more capable than he has ever been or even less. ---
**Author:** ![velomont](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/v/8491ac/32.png) [@velomont](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/velomont)\ **Post date:** [October 23, 2024, 5:51pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-can-donald-trump-win-at-this-point/1005351/3098 "2024-10-23T17:51:27Z")
> [@Aeschines](#): > > pull off a steal No snark intended, but what exactly do you mean by “pull off a steal”? ---
**Author:** ![Aeschines](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/aeschines/32/16251_2.png) [@Aeschines](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Aeschines)\ **Post date:** [October 23, 2024, 6:32pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-can-donald-trump-win-at-this-point/1005351/3099 "2024-10-23T18:32:58Z")
Pull off a steal of the election. Like “pull off a heist.” “Pull off” means “try to do something difficult and succeed.” (In case you are not a native English speaker. I do not have enough context to know either way. Former ESL teacher here…) ---
**Author:** ![Aeschines](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/aeschines/32/16251_2.png) [@Aeschines](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Aeschines)\ **Post date:** [October 23, 2024, 6:33pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-can-donald-trump-win-at-this-point/1005351/3100 "2024-10-23T18:33:46Z")
I guess you said, “No snark intended,” so that sounds native. I had enough context. So I guess I don’t know what you didn’t understand! ---
**Author:** ![Aeschines](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/aeschines/32/16251_2.png) [@Aeschines](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Aeschines)\ **Post date:** [October 23, 2024, 6:38pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-can-donald-trump-win-at-this-point/1005351/3101 "2024-10-23T18:38:17Z")
Kind of academic, but… I think it’s clear that Trump was leading the effort to deny the election results and steal it back in 2020. We have, for example, the recorded phone calls, and he otherwise seemed to be directing things. So I disagree with the implication that his minions were just doing it on their own back then. I don’t think Trump has the strength or will to lead as he did in 2020. Now, maybe your implied meaning was not per the above but rather that, despite the fact that he led in 2020, he need not this year, and his minions will just do it. But I don’t think that’s the case either. A lot of his people got in trouble for what they did in 2020, so I think there will be a reluctance to act autonomously. I do think there’s a very good chance that some local officials will try some bullshit, especially those troublesome idiots in Georgia, but I agree that anything they try will fizzle. ---
**Author:** ![velomont](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/v/8491ac/32.png) [@velomont](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/velomont)\ **Post date:** [October 23, 2024, 7:18pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-can-donald-trump-win-at-this-point/1005351/3102 "2024-10-23T19:18:01Z")
> [@Aeschines](#): > > So I guess I don’t know what you didn’t understand! Do you mean as related to “stop the steal” and/or win the election through illicit means, as he is constantly trying to do? I am a native English speaker (essentially born and raised in Ontario, Canada), but there could be subtleties and nuances here. But notwithstanding all that, I still believe that a Trump win is very possible. But it’s also very possible that I am too boggled that nothing he does or says perturbs or disgusts any more people than it does. ---
**Author:** ![DSeid](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/dseid/32/20194_2.png) [@DSeid](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DSeid)\ **Post date:** [October 23, 2024, 7:20pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-can-donald-trump-win-at-this-point/1005351/3103 "2024-10-23T19:20:47Z")
My belief is that _this time_ his supporters have been setting things up to try to undermine a D victory for a while now, and have half baked plans, with his encouragement. I think the plans wil be half baked and the Democratic side is prepared. Yes he had a direct hand last time, phone calls, etc. ---
**Author:** ![Sherrerd](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/sherrerd/32/8_2.png) [@Sherrerd](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Sherrerd)\ **Post date:** [October 23, 2024, 7:27pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-can-donald-trump-win-at-this-point/1005351/3104 "2024-10-23T19:27:13Z")
> [@Aeschines](#): > > Also, Trump had an event in Florida, a Latinx forum–playing defense much? If there are any Latinx-identifying voters paying attention to the news, this story won’t help Trump: > **["It doesn't cost $60,000 to bury a f---ing Mexican": Trump was outraged at...](https://www.salon.com/2024/10/23/it-doesnt-cost-60000-to-bury-a-f---ing-mexican-was-outraged-at-cost-of-soldiers-funeral/)** > > Trump had offered to cover the cost of U.S. solider Vanessa Guillen's funeral after she was murdered in 2020 Of course Trump’s spokespeople are denying the story. And right-wing media are playing up those denials: > **[The Atlantic report alleging Trump disparaged slain Army private blasted by...](https://www.foxnews.com/media/atlantic-report-alleging-trump-disparaged-slain-army-private-blasted-family-others-absolutely-false)** > > The Atlantic's latest report about former President Trump is drawing intense scrutiny over its claim that he disparaged a slain Mexican-American Army private when he was in office. I don’t like clicking on FoxNews but did in this case, so I can report for those who’d prefer not to give them traffic: their ‘reporting’ is about how the author of the Atlantic piece, Jeffery **GOLDBERG** , is disliked and despised by all and _Everybody Says He’s A Terrible Journalist._ (None of which seems to be factual.) Anecdotally: I voted early yesterday and noted a family of six people speaking Spanish and wearing Trump gear, standing so as to block the entrance to the early-voting station. Not deliberately, probably; they were just so excited to have voted for Trump. _shudder_ ---
**Author:** ![Aeschines](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/aeschines/32/16251_2.png) [@Aeschines](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Aeschines)\ **Post date:** [October 23, 2024, 7:32pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-can-donald-trump-win-at-this-point/1005351/3105 "2024-10-23T19:32:44Z")
OK, that’s plausible enough. ---
**Author:** ![Aeschines](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/aeschines/32/16251_2.png) [@Aeschines](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Aeschines)\ **Post date:** [October 23, 2024, 7:34pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-can-donald-trump-win-at-this-point/1005351/3106 "2024-10-23T19:34:20Z")
> [@Sherrerd](#): > > Anecdotally: I voted early yesterday and noted a family of six people speaking Spanish and wearing Trump gear, standing so as to block the entrance to the early-voting station. Not deliberately, probably; they were just so excited to have voted for Trump. _shudder_ Ugh. The sickness affects so many, including those whose vote equal self-harm. ---
**Author:** ![Sherrerd](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/sherrerd/32/8_2.png) [@Sherrerd](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Sherrerd)\ **Post date:** [October 23, 2024, 7:37pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-can-donald-trump-win-at-this-point/1005351/3107 "2024-10-23T19:37:13Z")
> [@Aeschines](#): > > The sickness affects so many, including those whose vote equal self-harm. Yeah. I’d say ‘they’ll be sorry’ but given the human capacity to rationalize away truths and defend the ego against self-blame, they’ll likely find a way to blame _Democrats_ even as Trump’s goons are hauling away their family members to work camps. ---
**Author:** ![Euphonious\_Polemic](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/euphonious_polemic/32/3002_2.png) [@Euphonious\_Polemic](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Euphonious_Polemic)\ **Post date:** [October 23, 2024, 7:43pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-can-donald-trump-win-at-this-point/1005351/3108 "2024-10-23T19:43:05Z")
> [@Sherrerd](#): > > they’ll likely find a way to blame _Democrats_ even as Trump’s goons are hauling away their family members to work camps. “Democrats did not do enough to stop them!” ---
**Author:** ![Sherrerd](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/sherrerd/32/8_2.png) [@Sherrerd](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Sherrerd)\ **Post date:** [October 23, 2024, 7:48pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-can-donald-trump-win-at-this-point/1005351/3109 "2024-10-23T19:48:04Z")
> [@Euphonious\_Polemic](#): > > “Democrats did not do enough to stop them!” Expectations of Democrats—from the media, especially—always seem to be higher than expectations of Republicans. A Democrat who expressed negative views of fracking four years ago is held to a higher standard than a Republican who changed his views on cryptocurrency, early voting, and TikTok _last week_. The way of the world. (And of course when Trump has people hauled away to work camps his propaganda WILL be _‘the Democrats made me do this’_—so there’s that.) [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-can-donald-trump-win-at-this-point/1005351.md?page=154) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-can-donald-trump-win-at-this-point/1005351.md?page=156)