# How can Donald Trump win at this point? **URL:** \ **Category:** Politics & Elections\ **Tags:** trump, kamala-harris\ **Created:** [August 6, 2024, 9:13pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-can-donald-trump-win-at-this-point/1005351 "2024-08-06T21:13:43Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 16
**Author:** ![robby](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/robby/32/11048_2.png) [@robby](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/robby)\ **Post date:** [August 8, 2024, 6:58pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-can-donald-trump-win-at-this-point/1005351/301 "2024-08-08T18:58:09Z")
> [@OldOlds](#): > > > [@Horatius](#): > > > > So he can’t find anyone willing to rent him an arena any more. > > I know this is oft-repeated, but I find it somewhat hard to believe. The campaign and its finances aren’t run by Trump himself, so one assumes there’s someone making sure the bills get paid. > > And of course, the venue could just demand advance payment, and if it were important enough to Trump they’d agree to it. I just did a Google search on this, and most of the stories seem to be related to Trump’s campaign not paying invoices to the local municipality for the additional required security provided by local police. There are many stories about this going back to 2019 or even earlier. Some stories include statements to the effect that the municipalities in question have no real mechanism to collect or demand payment from a political campaign. I actually pay a lot of these types of invoices as part of my job (for police to provide traffic control on construction projects), and it’s not really possible for a municipality to require advance payment since it’s all dependent on how many private-duty officers actually show up and for how long. But…all bets are off if you don’t pay your bills, though. The municipality will then typically refuse to provide any more police officers until the outstanding invoice(s) are paid, and _you will not get a permit to hold your event_ (or conduct your work in the case of construction) without the required police. So that could be the issue, and if so it would affect outside venues as well. ---
**Author:** ![wolfpup](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/wolfpup/32/10618_2.png) [@wolfpup](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/wolfpup)\ **Post date:** [August 8, 2024, 7:00pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-can-donald-trump-win-at-this-point/1005351/302 "2024-08-08T19:00:08Z")
> [@Railer13](#): > > Trump is having a press conference right now. I’m watching on CNN. Apparently another content-free presser. Apparently its only purpose was to exercise his famous invisible accordion. He’s leading by “a lot”, and Harris is a far-left radical worse than Biden. I don’t know why the media bother showing up. I suspect many of them don’t. > [@Procrustus](#): > > > [@Railer13](#): > > > > Evidently he said that he has agreed to 3 debates in September > > agreed with whom? You know the famous “they” that are always saying things agreeable to Trump? Yeah, them. I interpret the sudden interest in debating to mean that “leading by a lot” actually means “currently losing”. I suspect he’ll soon get serious and instead of proposing outrageous debating terms that he knows Harris won’t accept, he’ll have to agree to legitimate ones. The way the polls are going, trying to bulldoze his way through debates is his only hope of changing the trends. And it’s not gonna work. ---
**Author:** ![Win\_Place\_Show](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/win_place_show/32/13469_2.png) [@Win\_Place\_Show](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Win_Place_Show)\ **Post date:** [August 8, 2024, 7:04pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-can-donald-trump-win-at-this-point/1005351/303 "2024-08-08T19:04:08Z")
> [@wolfpup](#): > > You know the famous “they” that are always saying things agreeable to Trump? With tears in their eyes, working in “sir” with every other word. ---
**Author:** ![bordelond](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/bordelond/32/150_2.png) [@bordelond](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/bordelond)\ **Post date:** [August 8, 2024, 7:14pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-can-donald-trump-win-at-this-point/1005351/304 "2024-08-08T19:14:09Z")
> [@flurb](#): > > So there’s nothing inevitable about Texas “going blue,” particularly as the entrenched Republican state government does everything in its power to avoid it. Your points are appreciated, but not conceded. I will start a separate thread on this in the near future (there might already be a Texas-going-blue thread, actually) and will make a fuller argument there. ---
**Author:** ![DWMarch](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/dwmarch/32/1010_2.png) [@DWMarch](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DWMarch)\ **Post date:** [August 8, 2024, 7:14pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-can-donald-trump-win-at-this-point/1005351/305 "2024-08-08T19:14:30Z")
> [@wolfpup](#): > > I don’t know why the media bother showing up. The media loves to ask a question, politely phrased, that basically boils down to “will you please talk some shit about…” Trump loves this question and always has something to say in the category of trash talk. Remember, this is the guy that Fox News occasionally has to hang up on because he just won’t stop blathering. Because Trump can be counted on for vile, racist, sexist, ignorant blather he makes for great “you’ll never believe what Trump said today!” headlines. ---
**Author:** ![wolfpup](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/wolfpup/32/10618_2.png) [@wolfpup](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/wolfpup)\ **Post date:** [August 8, 2024, 7:19pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-can-donald-trump-win-at-this-point/1005351/306 "2024-08-08T19:19:13Z")
Good point. I frequently underestimate just how shallow the media can be. ---
**Author:** ![enipla](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/54ee81/32.png) [@enipla](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/enipla)\ **Post date:** [August 8, 2024, 7:32pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-can-donald-trump-win-at-this-point/1005351/307 "2024-08-08T19:32:44Z")
Screwing with the election is the only way. They already tried it with the fake electors (they called them alternative 🤪) Some of those folks are going to jail. Frankly, that has got to be the dumbest idea any person has falled for (well except all of Trumps other BS). But it could have sowed so much confusion, that the election went to the House. They are going to screw with the election. They already are. ---
**Author:** ![enipla](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/54ee81/32.png) [@enipla](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/enipla)\ **Post date:** [August 8, 2024, 7:35pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-can-donald-trump-win-at-this-point/1005351/308 "2024-08-08T19:35:46Z")
> [@Aeschines](#): > > Further, it wouldn’t be the DOJ going after political rivals; it would be Trump himself offering to end his taking of America hostage in exchange for leniency. Ooops, you didn’t read the agreement close enough. Then throw the book at him. Throw the entire library. ---
**Author:** ![madmonk28](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/madmonk28/32/20811_2.png) [@madmonk28](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/madmonk28)\ **Post date:** [August 8, 2024, 7:41pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-can-donald-trump-win-at-this-point/1005351/309 "2024-08-08T19:41:37Z")
This is anyone’s race. One big economic downturn, one high profile terrorist incident, or riots like the one Russia is helping foment in the UK can turn the tide. Plus GOP governors can “clean up” the voting lists and whoopsie, a bunch of black folk are accidentally disenfranchised. ---
**Author:** ![OldOlds](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/o/a3d4f5/32.png) [@OldOlds](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/OldOlds)\ **Post date:** [August 8, 2024, 7:54pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-can-donald-trump-win-at-this-point/1005351/310 "2024-08-08T19:54:39Z")
Agree. I can’t prove it, but I’m pretty sure releasing a new batch of the same old emails three (?) days before the election killed it for Hillary in 2016. There’s plenty of time for something crazy to happen. And the biggest fear for me is that the economy has been on a tear, and it’s due for a setback. Hell, even though markets are NOT the economy, half the country thinks they are. ---
**Author:** ![madmonk28](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/madmonk28/32/20811_2.png) [@madmonk28](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/madmonk28)\ **Post date:** [August 8, 2024, 8:19pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-can-donald-trump-win-at-this-point/1005351/311 "2024-08-08T20:19:03Z")
> [@OldOlds](#): > > Hell, even though markets are NOT the economy, half the country thinks they are. Exactly, they got wobbly earlier in the week and people panicked. If that happens close enough to the election, or if any other big disruption happens, Harris could easily lose. The days of blowout elections are over, we are two nations struggling to control one government. ---
**Author:** ![DrDeth](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/b487fb/32.png) [@DrDeth](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DrDeth)\ **Post date:** [August 8, 2024, 9:23pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-can-donald-trump-win-at-this-point/1005351/312 "2024-08-08T21:23:28Z")
> [@Spoons](#): > > He was doing great against “Sleepy Joe” (his words), because he was a little younger The media- especially the NYT- seemingly ignored the fact that trump was just about as old, and _acted_ more senile. > [@Spoons](#): > > If Trump is to win, then he needs to come up with something that can beat the vitality of Harris and Walz. Lies and propaganda, as usual. The Kremlin is helping. > [@stui\_magpie](#): > > The polls and odds are a dead heat, it could easily go either way. Harris has a small- repeat- small- edge, just like trump had a slight edge over Biden. Nothing to be complacent over, but room for hope. > [@BobLibDem](#): > > You KNOW that DJT is going to take the election to court when he loses and I wouldn’t count on the corrupt Supreme Court to save the day if it gets that far SCOTUS has said NO to all those bogus election claims. SCOTUS is not the friend of trump like you think. > [@Aeschines](#): > > There is absolutely no good excuse for it. Money? > [@Pleonast](#): > > The truism that Republicans only make accusations about things they’re guilty of might be relevant. I’m beginning to suspect that Trump is suffering from issues that prevent him from actively campaigning Hmm, you are certainly right in that every GOP accusation is a confession. (Somewhere there is a very evil GOP run pizza parlor 🤪 ) I like your thinking. > [@bordelond](#): > > Very unlikely for the 2024 general election, but the bluing of Texas is inevitable – I concur, but note that Florida is in play. I see a poll saying trump is only 6% over Harris now. Sure, leans GOP but it is a soft pinkish purple now. The GOP will have to spend $$ there this year. > [@robby](#): > > I just did a Google search on this, and most of the stories seem to be related to Trump’s campaign not paying invoices to the local municipality for the additional required security provided by local police. Could that have contributed to the shooting?? ---
**Author:** ![Aeschines](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/aeschines/32/16251_2.png) [@Aeschines](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Aeschines)\ **Post date:** [August 8, 2024, 9:25pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-can-donald-trump-win-at-this-point/1005351/313 "2024-08-08T21:25:39Z")
> [@madmonk28](#): > > The days of blowout elections are over, **we are two nations struggling to control one government.** _Emphasis added._ That is an excellent formulation! I have not read that elsewhere–outstanding! ---
**Author:** ![bordelond](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/bordelond/32/150_2.png) [@bordelond](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/bordelond)\ **Post date:** [August 8, 2024, 9:30pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-can-donald-trump-win-at-this-point/1005351/314 "2024-08-08T21:30:31Z")
> [@DrDeth](#): > > I concur, but note that **Florida is in play**. I see a poll saying trump is only 6% over Harris now. Sure, leans GOP but it is a soft pinkish purple now. The GOP will have to spend $$ there this year. (my emphasis) Agree with the bolded. Trump won Florida in 2020 by 3.36 percent - 51.22% vs 47.86%. Wouldn’t surprise me in this least to see those percentages flipped in 2024. Or even more likely – for Harris-Walz to gain a point to ~49.5 - 50.0% and for Trump-Vance to drop to ~48.0 - 48.5% with RFK Jr. and others splitting up the remainder. See also North Carolina. ---
**Author:** ![flurb](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/f/51bf81/32.png) [@flurb](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/flurb)\ **Post date:** [August 8, 2024, 9:49pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-can-donald-trump-win-at-this-point/1005351/315 "2024-08-08T21:49:45Z")
If Harris’ campaign sees something that makes them think Florida is winnable – great. But with less than 90 days to go they’d be better advised focusing on the 6-7 states that are clearly toss ups. For a fraction of the cost of making a major push in Florida or Texas you could blanket an Arizona or Georgia in ads and campaign workers. ---
**Author:** ![DSeid](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/dseid/32/20194_2.png) [@DSeid](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DSeid)\ **Post date:** [August 8, 2024, 10:00pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-can-donald-trump-win-at-this-point/1005351/316 "2024-08-08T22:00:03Z")
And it is an _expensive_ market. If you win FL you’ve already won. ---
**Author:** ![flurb](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/f/51bf81/32.png) [@flurb](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/flurb)\ **Post date:** [August 8, 2024, 10:05pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-can-donald-trump-win-at-this-point/1005351/317 "2024-08-08T22:05:32Z")
Indeed. And if you’re going to make a play for Florida or Texas, you’ve got to _commit_. I mentioned earlier, being down by 3% may not seem like much but in these two states you’re talking about hundreds of thousands of additional voters you’ve got to drive to the polls. Both states have several major media markets separated by wide distances. You can’t just dribble some money in there on some web ads. It would take a major commitment of campaign time, staff and resources. ---
**Author:** ![DrDeth](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/b487fb/32.png) [@DrDeth](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DrDeth)\ **Post date:** [August 8, 2024, 10:10pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-can-donald-trump-win-at-this-point/1005351/318 "2024-08-08T22:10:19Z")
> [@DSeid](#): > > And it is an _expensive_ market. If you win FL you’ve already won. Not in 2020. But yes, if harris wins Fla, the game is over, pretty much. ---
**Author:** ![MulderMuffin](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/muldermuffin/32/2862_2.png) [@MulderMuffin](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/MulderMuffin)\ **Post date:** [August 8, 2024, 10:11pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-can-donald-trump-win-at-this-point/1005351/319 "2024-08-08T22:11:20Z")
> [@enipla](#): > > Screwing with the election is the only way. They already tried it with the fake electors (they called them alternative 🤪) Some of those folks are going to jail. Frankly, that has got to be the dumbest idea any person has falled for (well except all of Trumps other BS). But it could have sowed so much confusion, that the election went to the House. > > They are going to screw with the election. They already are. This is absolutely part of their plan. > **[Get Ready Now: Republicans Will Refuse to Certify a Harris Win](https://www.thebulwark.com/p/republicans-will-refuse-certify-harris-election)** > > Trumpist county election officials are preparing to throw the process into chaos. > Their goal: Refuse to certify anywhere—even a county that Trump won—and prevent certification in that state, which prevents certification of the presidential election. > **[These Swing State Election Officials Are Pro-Trump Election Deniers](https://www.rollingstone.com/politics/politics-features/trump-swing-state-officials-election-deniers-1235069692/)** > > Nearly 70 pro-Trump conspiracists are election officials in key battleground counties — and they are poised to make a giant mess on Election Day. > “I think we are going to see mass refusals to certify the election” in November, Democratic election lawyer Marc Elias told _Rolling Stone_ . “Everything we are seeing about this election is that the other side is more organized, more ruthless, and more prepared.” > **[Georgia State Election Board passes new rule allowing county boards to demand...](https://www.cnn.com/2024/08/06/politics/georgia-election-rules-state-board/index.html)** > > Georgia’s State Election Board passed a new rule ahead of the November election that will give county election boards the authority to demand more information, including the ability to conduct inquiries, before certifying election results. > “These certification rules directly conflict with Georgia law, which states in multiple places that local election board officials shall perform their duties – meaning their duties are mandatory, not discretionary,” said Park, an Atlanta-area attorney. > > Ahead of the meeting, Georgia Secretary of State Brad Raffensperger, who was the chairman of the state’s board during the 2020 election, called the panel “a mess.” His office would not offer additional comment. It’s all being planned quietly out in the open. The little people in charge of county elections are planning already to throw a monkey wrench in the works in any way possible if it looks like trump is losing. Refusing to certify would at the very least result in a judge needing to order them to comply, and it could result in the whole state not meeting the deadline to certify. ---
**Author:** ![wolfpup](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/wolfpup/32/10618_2.png) [@wolfpup](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/wolfpup)\ **Post date:** [August 8, 2024, 10:14pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-can-donald-trump-win-at-this-point/1005351/320 "2024-08-08T22:14:46Z")
> [@DrDeth](#): > > Harris has a small- repeat- small- edge, just like trump had a slight edge over Biden. Nothing to be complacent over, but room for hope. At least four upcoming events are likely to widen that lead: - Continued aggressive campaigning by Team Harris - The Democratic Convention later this month - The debate on September 10 - Trump sentencing on the 34 felony counts on September 18 [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-can-donald-trump-win-at-this-point/1005351.md?page=15) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-can-donald-trump-win-at-this-point/1005351.md?page=17)