# How can Donald Trump win at this point? **URL:** \ **Category:** Politics & Elections\ **Tags:** trump, kamala-harris\ **Created:** [August 6, 2024, 9:13pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-can-donald-trump-win-at-this-point/1005351 "2024-08-06T21:13:43Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 166
**Author:** ![PhillyGuy](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/p/ed655f/32.png) [@PhillyGuy](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/PhillyGuy)\ **Post date:** [October 28, 2024, 2:55am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-can-donald-trump-win-at-this-point/1005351/3310 "2024-10-28T02:55:00Z")
> [@DSeid](#): > > FWIW [here’s](https://cdn.sanity.io/files/ifn0l6bs/production/7c56e606b1909778e15af5643bff9346a1d76bd8.pdf) a recent survey that gets cited for Harris losing the Arab vote. Trump actually marginally ahead! Per your link, 33 percent are conservative or very conservative, while only 27 percent are liberal or very liberal. This may explain voting intentions more than Middle East policy preferences. Also consider evidence of social conservatism in this link: > **[A Muslim Mayor Endorses Trump, and a City of Immigrants Finds Itself Undone...](https://www.nytimes.com/2024/10/26/us/hamtramck-michigan-ghalib-trump.html?ogrp=dpl&unlocked_article_code=1.Vk4.C7wK.oilfDwnoOFw7&smid=url-share)** > > The endorsement has roiled Hamtramck, Mich., angering many in the Muslim community, as well as longtime residents who welcomed the newcomers. I wonder how many of those voting for West or Stein are highly pro-Palestinian conservatives whose second choice would beTrump. ---
**Author:** ![DSeid](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/dseid/32/20194_2.png) [@DSeid](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DSeid)\ **Post date:** [October 28, 2024, 3:13am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-can-donald-trump-win-at-this-point/1005351/3311 "2024-10-28T03:13:09Z")
My point however is that the poll overall is highly questionable. Of the respondents who voted in 2020 58% say they voted for Trump. Best estimate is that the number was 35% in the election. Arab voters who voted for Biden last time were non responders I guess? Of _this_ group who did respond, _fewer_ are supporting Trump now than voted for him last time: 45 compared to that 58%. I don’t trust anything from that poll. It gets uncritical press because it feeds the panic narrative that drives clicks and that Democratic campaign leaders feel drives turnout. ---
**Author:** ![DrDeth](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/b487fb/32.png) [@DrDeth](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DrDeth)\ **Post date:** [October 28, 2024, 4:12am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-can-donald-trump-win-at-this-point/1005351/3312 "2024-10-28T04:12:21Z")
> [@Smapti](#): > > False. I concur, but I am not so sure about Netanyahu. 🤪 ---
**Author:** ![gracer](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/g/8e7dd6/32.png) [@gracer](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/gracer)\ **Post date:** [October 28, 2024, 9:55am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-can-donald-trump-win-at-this-point/1005351/3313 "2024-10-28T09:55:10Z")
This is a reply to a reply to a reply to my post. My post is about the opinions and feelings of voters, not about what those opinions and feelings are based on. Can we stick to “how can Trump win” & “can he win because Harris is losing young & Muslim voters due to ME policy”? Edit: if I’m making requests, can we please skip to the part where the answer is “he cannot win, he will never win anything again not even bingo” please pretty please 😭 ---
**Author:** ![Aeschines](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/aeschines/32/16251_2.png) [@Aeschines](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Aeschines)\ **Post date:** [October 28, 2024, 10:55am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-can-donald-trump-win-at-this-point/1005351/3314 "2024-10-28T10:55:04Z")
I don’t think he is going to win. ---
**Author:** ![Aeschines](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/aeschines/32/16251_2.png) [@Aeschines](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Aeschines)\ **Post date:** [October 28, 2024, 11:45am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-can-donald-trump-win-at-this-point/1005351/3315 "2024-10-28T11:45:45Z")
Here’s another guy who thinks he won’t: > **[Stuart Stevens is Extremely Bullish on Kamala Harris’s Chances](https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2024/10/26/2279881/-Stuart-Stevens-is-Extremely-Bullish-on-Kamala-Harris-s-Chances?pm_campaign=front_page&pm_source=trending&pm_medium=web)** > > In this long interview, Stuart Stevens (a veteran former GOP campaign strategist) talks to Joe Hagan at Vanity Fair and describes why he thinks Kamala Harris will be the next President of the United States. Here are a few snippets from the full... **In this long interview, Stuart Stevens (a veteran former GOP campaign strategist) talks to Joe Hagan at Vanity Fair and describes why he thinks Kamala Harris will be the next President of the United States.** ---
**Author:** ![Aeschines](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/aeschines/32/16251_2.png) [@Aeschines](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Aeschines)\ **Post date:** [October 28, 2024, 11:48am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-can-donald-trump-win-at-this-point/1005351/3316 "2024-10-28T11:48:45Z")
> **off-topic, please no replies in this thread. See modnote.** > > OK, let me rephrase: Israel has wanted to give the response that Hamas purposely triggered, which in turn has allowed Hamas to accuse Israel of genocide. I have read, horrible, bloodthirsty quotes from Israelis. OTOH, there are those who support the Palestinians. It’s a mess. ---
**Author:** ![What\_Exit](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/what_exit/32/10652_2.png) [@What\_Exit](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/What_Exit)\ **Post date:** [October 28, 2024, 12:36pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-can-donald-trump-win-at-this-point/1005351/3317 "2024-10-28T12:36:17Z")
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**Author:** ![What\_Exit](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/what_exit/32/10652_2.png) [@What\_Exit](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/What_Exit)\ **Post date:** [October 28, 2024, 12:40pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-can-donald-trump-win-at-this-point/1005351/3318 "2024-10-28T12:40:18Z")
**Moderating:** This is not the thread to argue over Israel and Hamas or Israel and Iran or etc. I will be hiding your off-topic post. And with the number of times we’ve needed to moderate you in this thread, @Aeschines, you are banned from this thread. > **5 mod notes for you are too many.** > > [How can Donald Trump win at this point? - #3316 by Aeschines](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-can-donald-trump-win-at-this-point/1005351/3316) > > [How can Donald Trump win at this point? - #3318](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-can-donald-trump-win-at-this-point/1005351/3318) > > [How can Donald Trump win at this point? - #2996](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-can-donald-trump-win-at-this-point/1005351/2996) > > [How can Donald Trump win at this point? - #1256](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-can-donald-trump-win-at-this-point/1005351/1256) > > [How can Donald Trump win at this point? - #2063](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-can-donald-trump-win-at-this-point/1005351/2063) ---
**Author:** ![What\_Exit](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/what_exit/32/10652_2.png) [@What\_Exit](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/What_Exit)\ **Post date:** [October 28, 2024, 12:46pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-can-donald-trump-win-at-this-point/1005351/3319 "2024-10-28T12:46:15Z")
This topic was automatically opened after 6 minutes. ---
**Author:** ![Dinsdale](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/97f17d/32.png) [@Dinsdale](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Dinsdale)\ **Post date:** [October 28, 2024, 1:48pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-can-donald-trump-win-at-this-point/1005351/3320 "2024-10-28T13:48:18Z")
I don’t know which of the numerous threads this would be appropriate for, and I’m not sure how much discussion it warrants, but how could Hillary’s “basket of deplorables” have been considered to have hurt her so much, whereas Trump’s venom is not viewed similarly? Wouldn’t both seem to have impact on the least committed “middle” voters? Or is it that Hillary’s remark insulted “the deplorables”, whereas Trump’s appeals to them? ---
**Author:** ![Odesio](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/odesio/32/20003_2.png) [@Odesio](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Odesio)\ **Post date:** [October 28, 2024, 2:26pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-can-donald-trump-win-at-this-point/1005351/3321 "2024-10-28T14:26:16Z")
> [@Dinsdale](#): > > I don’t know which of the numerous threads this would be appropriate for, and I’m not sure how much discussion it warrants, but how could Hillary’s “basket of deplorables” have been considered to have hurt her so much, whereas Trump’s venom is not viewed similarly? There’s a double standard when it comes to Trump and I’m still not quite sure I understand it. But I do think Trump’s behavior did hurt him even in 2016. Yes, he was elected, but not by popular vote. He squeaked by. It could be that Hillary was harmed by her deplorables comment because a lot of people already disliked her. I disliked her, but I voted for her because I believed Trump would make a bad president. I had no idea how bad. Trumps does seem to get away with a lot of bad behavior. At least he avoids most personal consequences. His bad behavior made him an ineffective president unable to push through most of his policies or to govern. Under his influence and eventual leadership, the Republicans as a whole are rife with infighting and sometimes it seems as though they don’t actually want to govern. We’ve had a situation where you had to out crazy other Republicans to win primaries but once elected these people are unable to actually govern. ---
**Author:** ![robby](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/robby/32/11048_2.png) [@robby](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/robby)\ **Post date:** [October 28, 2024, 2:27pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-can-donald-trump-win-at-this-point/1005351/3322 "2024-10-28T14:27:43Z")
> [@Dinsdale](#): > > I don’t know which of the numerous threads this would be appropriate for, and I’m not sure how much discussion it warrants, but how could Hillary’s “basket of deplorables” have been considered to have hurt her so much, whereas Trump’s venom is not viewed similarly? > > Wouldn’t both seem to have impact on the least committed “middle” voters? Nope, because Hillary Clinton was a “normal” politician, so her remarks seemed out of character for her and made news for the novelty that a normal politician would speak so bluntly about a large part of the electorate. It was a “man bites dog” story. Whereas Trump’s whole shtick since he came down that golden escalator has been to insult and demean as many people as he can. The fact that he made racist, sexist, dehumanizing, and/or incendiary remarks _once again_ is nothing new and I’d be surprised if this latest example lasts beyond one news cycle. It won’t likely penetrate to uncommitted voters who aren’t paying much attention. ---
**Author:** ![Procrustus](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/procrustus/32/2994_2.png) [@Procrustus](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Procrustus)\ **Post date:** [October 28, 2024, 2:43pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-can-donald-trump-win-at-this-point/1005351/3323 "2024-10-28T14:43:53Z")
> [@Dinsdale](#): > > but how could Hillary’s “basket of deplorables” have been considered to have hurt her so much, whereas Trump’s venom is not viewed similarly? That comment didn’t hurt her, in my opinion. It was used as an excuse by people who didn’t want to vote for her anyway. Maybe this relates to your larger question. Trumps venom doesn’t hurt him because people who want to vote for him overlook it. People decide who they want to support and then come up with reasons to justify it. Like “I don’t know enough about Harris’ position on cat adoptions.” No one really cares, it’s just an excuse. ---
**Author:** ![DigitalC](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/ebca7d/32.png) [@DigitalC](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DigitalC)\ **Post date:** [October 28, 2024, 2:47pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-can-donald-trump-win-at-this-point/1005351/3324 "2024-10-28T14:47:49Z")
> [@Procrustus](#): > > Trumps venom doesn’t hurt him because people who want to vote for him overlook it. They are not overlooking it, they want to vote for him because of it. ---
**Author:** ![excavating\_for\_a\_mind](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/e8c25b/32.png) [@excavating\_for\_a\_mind](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/excavating_for_a_mind)\ **Post date:** [October 28, 2024, 2:51pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-can-donald-trump-win-at-this-point/1005351/3325 "2024-10-28T14:51:11Z")
Clinton’s “basket of deplorables” hurt her because every Trump voter thought they were being thrown into that basket. Trump’s venom isn’t harmful because it is aimed at “others” not voting Americans. Yeah, sure, he aims it at any Democrat or even center Republican, but he is calling them “Marxists” and “Socialists” and “Illegals”. Only a very small group of Harris supporters feel they are included in any of those groups, so it bounces off. It’s not about me, is the attitude. Some things do hurt Trump in the mind of the voters. Childless cat ladies hurt him, even though it was Vance who said it. Most of the others he doesn’t repeat, so they don’t get much traction. Trump only repeats the ones that put down others, almost others who are not able to defend themselves. That’s Trump’s thing. ---
**Author:** ![Procrustus](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/procrustus/32/2994_2.png) [@Procrustus](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Procrustus)\ **Post date:** [October 28, 2024, 2:53pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-can-donald-trump-win-at-this-point/1005351/3326 "2024-10-28T14:53:23Z")
> [@excavating\_for\_a\_mind](#): > > Clinton’s “basket of deplorables” hurt her because every Trump voter thought they were being thrown into that basket. I don’t understand. Losing Trump voters? If they’re Trump voters she already lost them. ---
**Author:** ![excavating\_for\_a\_mind](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/e8c25b/32.png) [@excavating\_for\_a\_mind](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/excavating_for_a_mind)\ **Post date:** [October 28, 2024, 3:04pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-can-donald-trump-win-at-this-point/1005351/3327 "2024-10-28T15:04:11Z")
She may have already lost them, but there were tens (if not hundreds) of thousands of voters that would not have bothered to vote until some liberal white woman personally called them deplorable. There are tens (if not hundreds) of thousands of naturalized immigrants who really don’t believe that the whole “greatest deportation effort this nation has ever seen” is nothing to worry about because they are citizens and cannot be deported. They just don’t believe any of this hatred and prejudice is aimed at them, it’s about the others, and they believe Trump’s BS that the others are why these immigrants have such a hard time. The deplorables knew exactly who Hillary was talking about. So, they registered and voted. ---
**Author:** ![DigitalC](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/ebca7d/32.png) [@DigitalC](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DigitalC)\ **Post date:** [October 28, 2024, 3:14pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-can-donald-trump-win-at-this-point/1005351/3328 "2024-10-28T15:14:12Z")
We really have zero idea of that comment hurt Hillary or not. ---
**Author:** ![DSeid](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/dseid/32/20194_2.png) [@DSeid](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DSeid)\ **Post date:** [October 28, 2024, 3:33pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-can-donald-trump-win-at-this-point/1005351/3329 "2024-10-28T15:33:55Z")
The problem was not the comment by itself. The comment was emblematic of the strategy of the campaign, not particularly aimed at reducing his margin in his demographic strengths. Instead all in on increasing her margins in her demographic strengths, including winning the suburbs. The Harris campaign OTOH is spending huge amounts of effort to demonstrate respect for the concerns of white non-college educated white voters, aiming to decrease his margin there some. Can she do it? Stay tuned! [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-can-donald-trump-win-at-this-point/1005351.md?page=165) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-can-donald-trump-win-at-this-point/1005351.md?page=167)