# How can Donald Trump win at this point? **URL:** \ **Category:** Politics & Elections\ **Tags:** trump, kamala-harris\ **Created:** [August 6, 2024, 9:13pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-can-donald-trump-win-at-this-point/1005351 "2024-08-06T21:13:43Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 170
**Author:** ![RickJay](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/bb73d2/32.png) [@RickJay](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/RickJay)\ **Post date:** [November 3, 2024, 4:55pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-can-donald-trump-win-at-this-point/1005351/3390 "2024-11-03T16:55:41Z")
> [@Euphonious\_Polemic](#): > > I just hope that Trump’s Plan B serves to terminate his candidacy. Well it’s a bit late to terminate his candidacy, the election’s in two days. Plan B kicks in if he loses. As to the Selzer poll, even good polls, after all, hit their confidence level only 95% of the time, and this poll is so ludicrously out of line with anything else that thinking it’s correct is falling for the base rate fallacy. If the poll analysts are right about the overall state of the race, Trump is a favourite. A slight movement that the Selzer poll would suggest makes him less of a favourite, but again, it’s ONE POLL. If any pollster had come out with a poll saying Trump was three points ahead in Oregon or Virginia, no one in this thread would mention it except, maybe, to say how obviously nuts it was (and they’d be right.) Iowa isn’t AS red as Mississippi or anything. But retroactively coming up with reasons like “well, tariffs hurt them bad” or “Iowa women are angry about abortion laws” is rather less convincing than if someone had predicted those things would result in a dramatic shift. That would be strikingly convincing, but you can always look backwards and justify an outlier result. I mean, Trumpiffs also hurt Kansas, and Nebraska, and South Dakota, and Indiana. Women are no less prone to anger in other states that have passed nasty abortion laws - look at what’s happening in Texas, but there’s no evidence Texas is suddenly favoring Harris. Other states are subject to the same forces, but in those cases what people keep telling me is that the Harris voters are all hidden and quiet. ---
**Author:** ![Euphonious\_Polemic](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/euphonious_polemic/32/3002_2.png) [@Euphonious\_Polemic](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Euphonious_Polemic)\ **Post date:** [November 3, 2024, 5:00pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-can-donald-trump-win-at-this-point/1005351/3391 "2024-11-03T17:00:34Z")
Agree with everything you’ve said. I’m just sad you missed my “Plan B termination” reference. ---
**Author:** ![ShadowFacts](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/shadowfacts/32/2934_2.png) [@ShadowFacts](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/ShadowFacts)\ **Post date:** [November 3, 2024, 5:01pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-can-donald-trump-win-at-this-point/1005351/3392 "2024-11-03T17:01:20Z")
> [@Euphonious\_Polemic](#): > > I just hope that Trump’s Plan B serves to terminate his candidacy. Ziiiiing!!! ---
**Author:** ![RickJay](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/bb73d2/32.png) [@RickJay](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/RickJay)\ **Post date:** [November 3, 2024, 5:03pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-can-donald-trump-win-at-this-point/1005351/3393 "2024-11-03T17:03:08Z")
> [@Euphonious\_Polemic](#): > > Agree with everything you’ve said. I’m just sad you missed my “Plan B termination” reference. Nah, I got it, but I failed to go back and throw a good tag on. Too late now. ---
**Author:** ![DSeid](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/dseid/32/20194_2.png) [@DSeid](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DSeid)\ **Post date:** [November 3, 2024, 5:10pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-can-donald-trump-win-at-this-point/1005351/3394 "2024-11-03T17:10:23Z")
> [@RickJay](#): > > As to the Selzer poll, even good polls, after all, hit their confidence level only 95% of the time, and this poll is so ludicrously out of line with anything else that thinking it’s correct is falling for the base rate fallacy. Would agree if not that that’s been said about her results before. The outlier is usually wrong. Usually betting against the outlier is a pretty good idea. But when it is betting against her track record? A little bit less of a safe bet ---
**Author:** ![RickJay](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/bb73d2/32.png) [@RickJay](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/RickJay)\ **Post date:** [November 3, 2024, 5:19pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-can-donald-trump-win-at-this-point/1005351/3395 "2024-11-03T17:19:26Z")
> [@DSeid](#): > > Would agree if not that that’s been said about her results before. Selzer’s assessment of the race in Iowa last time was in line with what most predicted and wasn’t really off the base rate. I’ll bet a hundred bucks Trump wins Iowa without a moment’s hesitation. ---
**Author:** ![DigitalC](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/ebca7d/32.png) [@DigitalC](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DigitalC)\ **Post date:** [November 3, 2024, 5:21pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-can-donald-trump-win-at-this-point/1005351/3396 "2024-11-03T17:21:14Z")
Even if she is wrong, even if she is significantly wrong, this is still a great poll for Harris. If she is off by ten points and Trump wins by 7, that is still fine and shows Harris doing better than Biden. ---
**Author:** ![RickJay](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/bb73d2/32.png) [@RickJay](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/RickJay)\ **Post date:** [November 3, 2024, 5:26pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-can-donald-trump-win-at-this-point/1005351/3397 "2024-11-03T17:26:56Z")
That’s true. If the TRUTH is Trump +3, that would be crushing news to Trump. It would mean near certain defeat. (Seven points isn’t really sufficiently different from 2020 to fill me with glee. Three though? Great news.) I’d be more inclined to take a lot of hope from the Selzer poll if, you know, any other polls anywhere showed movement like this. None of them, not even the ones with the best track records, do. The NYT put Harris up in Wisconsin by 2.5 in their last poll, which is good but not the sort of margin consistent with Iowa suddenly being purple. Pennsylvania is a dead heat according to everyone. NYT had Michigan tied. I’m honestly hoping the NYT results in places like Wisconsin and Nevada do show a slight Harris bump so that she’ll win, but this Iowa thing is bananas. ---
**Author:** ![DigitalC](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/ebca7d/32.png) [@DigitalC](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DigitalC)\ **Post date:** [November 3, 2024, 5:32pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-can-donald-trump-win-at-this-point/1005351/3398 "2024-11-03T17:32:42Z")
It could just be entirely due to the six week abortion ban in Iowa and not be correlated to any nearby state at all. Even so, still great news. ---
**Author:** ![RickJay](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/bb73d2/32.png) [@RickJay](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/RickJay)\ **Post date:** [November 3, 2024, 5:36pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-can-donald-trump-win-at-this-point/1005351/3399 "2024-11-03T17:36:16Z")
It’s entirely possible, though again we don’t see that anywhere else, and I’d be afraid that a single issue like that might be even more likely to create a polling error. Remarkable how much damage Trump has done. ---
**Author:** ![DSeid](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/dseid/32/20194_2.png) [@DSeid](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DSeid)\ **Post date:** [November 3, 2024, 5:43pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-can-donald-trump-win-at-this-point/1005351/3400 "2024-11-03T17:43:42Z")
Well even if we were allowed to be here I wouldn’t bet on Harris winning the state. But I’ll _be_ shocked if her call isn’t closer than Emerson’s. And I _won’t be_ shocked if Harris wins Iowa. I’ve said it in this thread already: it is not just this single poll. The three from June with Biden way down, to Harris entering and pretty immediately at “just” losing by 4 (received with much skepticism), to now, is series that is hard to dismiss. ---
**Author:** ![Ann\_Hedonia](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/ann_hedonia/32/319_2.png) [@Ann\_Hedonia](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Ann_Hedonia)\ **Post date:** [November 3, 2024, 5:46pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-can-donald-trump-win-at-this-point/1005351/3401 "2024-11-03T17:46:03Z")
I just wanted to add that although I’m not someone that’s been following polls or making predictions, I finally made one and I gave IA to Harris BEFORE the Selzer poll came out. My prediction was based on one data point, a map of small dollar donors. The map showed strong Biden support in the urban areas, which is to be expected……but most of the non-urban areas were close to 50/50 and even the few areas in the northwest corner of the state that had stronger Trump support still had a good percentage of Harris support. The map resembled the maps for MI and IL more than the other Midwest states. The downside to the donor map is that I believe Democrats are more likely in general to make political donations, but the upside is that it’s hard verifiable data. I’m remaining optimistic because I don’t see a downside at this point, but the only poll that counts is the one on Tuesday. Here’s a link to the map. I like playing with it because it makes me optimistic. Sorry about the lack of a preview, that feature doesn’t work for me sometimes. [https://wapo.st/3UBCCet](https://wapo.st/3UBCCet) ---
**Author:** ![Dinsdale](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/97f17d/32.png) [@Dinsdale](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Dinsdale)\ **Post date:** [November 3, 2024, 6:18pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-can-donald-trump-win-at-this-point/1005351/3402 "2024-11-03T18:18:49Z")
This older white male would be THRILLED if women and youngsters saved our country for me and my kids/grandkids. If what he proposes isn’t enough to motivate women and kids, I’m not sure what will. And I almost have to think they either want the future he offers or don’t care. ---
**Author:** ![DSeid](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/dseid/32/20194_2.png) [@DSeid](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DSeid)\ **Post date:** [November 3, 2024, 6:21pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-can-donald-trump-win-at-this-point/1005351/3403 "2024-11-03T18:21:11Z")
> [@Ann\_Hedonia](#): > > The downside to the donor map is that I believe Democrats are more likely in general to make political donations, but the upside is that it’s hard verifiable data. I love this sort of data! Thank you for sharing it. My only quibble is with your belief about who makes more small donations. Previous years Trump did much better in small donations. The fall off on his side and pick up on the Harris side is otherwise very notable. You just showing broken down regionally and that is very cool. ---
**Author:** ![suranyi](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/e36b37/32.png) [@suranyi](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/suranyi)\ **Post date:** [November 3, 2024, 7:15pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-can-donald-trump-win-at-this-point/1005351/3404 "2024-11-03T19:15:37Z")
Actually, some recent polls HAVE shown strong movement towards Harris in Kansas and Nebraska: > **[A stupefying poll shows Harris breathing down Trump's neck in Kansas. Here's...](https://kansasreflector.com/2024/10/31/a-stupefying-poll-shows-harris-breathing-down-trumps-neck-in-kansas-heres-what-that-means/)** > > Let's step back from excited progressive reactions and actually talk about the poll, what it means and whether Harris has a shot in Kansas. [https://www.politico.com/news/magazine/2024/10/14/nebraska-2nd-district-battleground-00183400](https://www.politico.com/news/magazine/2024/10/14/nebraska-2nd-district-battleground-00183400) ---
**Author:** ![Sherrerd](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/sherrerd/32/8_2.png) [@Sherrerd](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Sherrerd)\ **Post date:** [November 3, 2024, 9:41pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-can-donald-trump-win-at-this-point/1005351/3405 "2024-11-03T21:41:14Z")
> [@enipla](#): > > Might terminate some of his MAGA followers if he tries the same thing again. The National Guard needs to be ready. A possible complication: many in the National Guard ARE Maga. > [@HMS\_Irruncible](#): > > How grand of him to change stories just a week before the election when all of the anti-electoral grievance-mongering has already worked its magic. If he had only broadcast this before the “uncommitted” movement’s position was set in stone, it might have helped. Yeah, I don’t know why Bernie Sanders was holding back; does he seriously plan another run at the Presidency? No matter how much ‘pressure’ he thought could be brought on Biden to stop helping Israel, he surely must know what a Trump win would mean for Palestinians. So why not speak out sooner? > [@Spoons](#): > > – Minnesota Somalis for Trump. Weirdly echoed in: > [@](#): > > [DONALD the Employee: a comic novel of American politics - #7 by Sherrerd](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/donald-the-employee-a-comic-novel-of-american-politics/808127/7) > [@RickJay](#): > > If Harris wins a thin EV margin, there’s not a doubt in my mind a Republican-controlled state she wins will try to change the results. This remains very concerning. I have to wonder: are any betting markets taking bets on exactly what time on Tuesday Trump will declare victory? Because surely there’s no doubt at all that he WILL declare victory–no matter what the numbers are. ---
**Author:** ![The\_Other\_Waldo\_Pepper](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/the_other_waldo_pepper/32/12370_2.png) [@The\_Other\_Waldo\_Pepper](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/The_Other_Waldo_Pepper)\ **Post date:** [November 3, 2024, 9:45pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-can-donald-trump-win-at-this-point/1005351/3406 "2024-11-03T21:45:26Z")
> [@Sherrerd](#): > > I have to wonder: are any betting markets taking bets on exactly what time on Tuesday Trump will declare victory? Put me down for one minute after midnight. ---
**Author:** ![Sherrerd](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/sherrerd/32/8_2.png) [@Sherrerd](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Sherrerd)\ **Post date:** [November 3, 2024, 9:54pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-can-donald-trump-win-at-this-point/1005351/3407 "2024-11-03T21:54:09Z")
> [@The\_Other\_Waldo\_Pepper](#): > > Put me down for one minute after midnight. That might be a good bet. ---
**Author:** ![HMS\_Irruncible](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/hms_irruncible/32/7394_2.png) [@HMS\_Irruncible](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/HMS_Irruncible)\ **Post date:** [November 3, 2024, 9:55pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-can-donald-trump-win-at-this-point/1005351/3408 "2024-11-03T21:55:38Z")
> [@Sherrerd](#): > > Yeah, I don’t know why Bernie Sanders was holding back; does he seriously plan another run at the Presidency? No matter how much ‘pressure’ he thought could be brought on Biden to stop helping Israel, he surely must know what a Trump win would mean for Palestinians. So why not speak out sooner? He’s walking a line between trying to please some of the dimmest people alive (online leftists), while trying not to get frozen out of influence if Harris wins. If leftists stick to their principles and Harris loses, then in their minds this is an effective show of force, and they’ve improved their persuasive power for future elections. “Respect us or expect us” worked. But they stick to their principles and Harris wins without them, then Dems know that leftists are not only treacherous but too few to matter, so it will be a simple and enjoyable calculation to freeze them out of power forever. The latter now seems to be highly likely, which is why the various leftist mouthpieces are desperately aiming to put their fingerprint on a victory that they’ve been actively undermining for many months now. ---
**Author:** ![Sherrerd](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/sherrerd/32/8_2.png) [@Sherrerd](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Sherrerd)\ **Post date:** [November 3, 2024, 9:57pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-can-donald-trump-win-at-this-point/1005351/3409 "2024-11-03T21:57:23Z")
> [@HMS\_Irruncible](#): > > He’s walking a line between trying to please some of the dimmest people alive (online leftists), while trying not to get frozen out of influence if Harris wins. Your entire post makes a huge amount of sense. (I think your read on the way human nature is working here is both insightful and depressing!) Heaven preserve us from our allies… [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-can-donald-trump-win-at-this-point/1005351.md?page=169) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-can-donald-trump-win-at-this-point/1005351.md?page=171)