# How can Donald Trump win at this point? **URL:** \ **Category:** Politics & Elections\ **Tags:** trump, kamala-harris\ **Created:** [August 6, 2024, 9:13pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-can-donald-trump-win-at-this-point/1005351 "2024-08-06T21:13:43Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 171
**Author:** ![Whack-a-Mole](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/whack-a-mole/32/141_2.png) [@Whack-a-Mole](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Whack-a-Mole)\ **Post date:** [November 3, 2024, 9:57pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-can-donald-trump-win-at-this-point/1005351/3410 "2024-11-03T21:57:38Z")
Trump’s odds in the betting market have changed a lot due to this: > **[Trump Plummets in Election Betting Odds After Shock Poll Shows Him Losing...](https://www.thedailybeast.com/trump-plummets-in-election-betting-odds-after-shock-poll-shows-him-losing-iowa-to-harris/)** > > Aggregator Election Betting Odds showed Kamala Harris up nearly ten points in the week since Trump’s campaign held a deranged, racist rally at Madison Square Garden. > Election prediction markets tilted heavily towards Vice President Kamala Harris overnight after a bombshell poll released Saturday showed her ahead of former President Donald Trump in Iowa. > > A Des Moines Register/Mediacom Iowa poll found the Democratic nominee three points up on her GOP opponent, 47% to 44%, among likely voters. > > The survey was conducted by the highly regarded pollster Ann Selzer, who has a long track record of producing results that uncannily mirror final election tallies. ---
**Author:** ![Gyrate](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/gyrate/32/3588_2.png) [@Gyrate](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Gyrate)\ **Post date:** [November 3, 2024, 10:24pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-can-donald-trump-win-at-this-point/1005351/3411 "2024-11-03T22:24:17Z")
It’ll be interesting to see what the DJT stock price does tomorrow… ---
**Author:** ![Smapti](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/smapti/32/17938_2.png) [@Smapti](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Smapti)\ **Post date:** [November 3, 2024, 10:33pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-can-donald-trump-win-at-this-point/1005351/3412 "2024-11-03T22:33:38Z")
> [@RickJay](#): > > We’ll see, but clearly the Supreme Court’s Trump wing has abandoned all pretense of real jurisprudence and, given the opportunity, will cheerfully choose the GOP over the republic. Just like they did in 2020, which is why Trump won the election, right? ---
**Author:** ![Ferris](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/ferris/32/11573_2.png) [@Ferris](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Ferris)\ **Post date:** [November 3, 2024, 10:43pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-can-donald-trump-win-at-this-point/1005351/3413 "2024-11-03T22:43:25Z")
> [@Gyrate](#): > > It’ll be interesting to see what the DJT stock price does tomorrow… Crater like the Aitken Basin, hopefully. 😁🤞 ---
**Author:** ![Whack-a-Mole](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/whack-a-mole/32/141_2.png) [@Whack-a-Mole](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Whack-a-Mole)\ **Post date:** [November 3, 2024, 11:40pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-can-donald-trump-win-at-this-point/1005351/3414 "2024-11-03T23:40:41Z")
Oooh…another one! I hate being hopeful after 2016 and the mess of 2020 but seems good news if you support Harris: > **[Donald Trump's support from Black voters plunges, new poll shows](https://www.newsweek.com/donald-trumps-support-black-voter-plunges-new-poll-shows-1979300)** > > According to the final national NBC News poll, Trump is seeing support from Black voters decrease to 9 percent. > Former President Donald Trump is seeing support from Black voters decrease just days before Election Day, a poll published on Sunday shows. > > According to the final national NBC News poll of the 2024 presidential campaign, Trump, the GOP presidential nominee, is only earning 9 percent of Black support, lower than the 12 percent he received during the 2020 presidential election when he ran against Joe Biden. > > Meanwhile, Vice President Kamala Harris, the Democratic presidential nominee, leads Black voters with 87 percent, NBC News’ poll shows. > > The poll, with a sample of 1,001 registered voters, was conducted between October 30 to November 2 and has a margin of error of plus or minus 3.1 percentage points. ---
**Author:** ![Smapti](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/smapti/32/17938_2.png) [@Smapti](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Smapti)\ **Post date:** [November 4, 2024, 12:04am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-can-donald-trump-win-at-this-point/1005351/3415 "2024-11-04T00:04:04Z")
Trump’s support is collapsing across all demographics. > **[One Mormon Lawyer’s Case for Kamala Harris](https://www.meidasplus.com/p/one-mormon-lawyers-case-for-kamala)** > > An LDS lawyer argues that Kamala Harris’s integrity, respect for the Constitution, and commitment to uniting the country make her the right choice to lead America forward. ---
**Author:** ![DSeid](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/dseid/32/20194_2.png) [@DSeid](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DSeid)\ **Post date:** [November 4, 2024, 12:23am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-can-donald-trump-win-at-this-point/1005351/3416 "2024-11-04T00:23:12Z")
Really? Sudden changes? Or sudden differences in measuring techniques? ---
**Author:** ![RickJay](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/bb73d2/32.png) [@RickJay](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/RickJay)\ **Post date:** [November 4, 2024, 1:26am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-can-donald-trump-win-at-this-point/1005351/3417 "2024-11-04T01:26:21Z")
> [@Smapti](#): > > Just like they did in 2020, which is why Trump won the election, right? You can’t tell me they haven’t gotten worse. Things are more… insane. ---
**Author:** ![HMS\_Irruncible](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/hms_irruncible/32/7394_2.png) [@HMS\_Irruncible](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/HMS_Irruncible)\ **Post date:** [November 4, 2024, 1:28am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-can-donald-trump-win-at-this-point/1005351/3418 "2024-11-04T01:28:10Z")
> [@Whack-a-Mole](#): > > Election prediction markets tilted heavily towards Vice President Kamala Harris overnight after a bombshell poll released Saturday showed her ahead of former President Donald Trump in Iowa. I find the whole “betting markets are reality because real money is at stake” to be incredibly tiresome for a broad number of reasons. Here we can see the one glaring weakness that the predictive value only emerges at the last minute, because new information is being developed all the time. But I have to admit that it does a pretty good job of reflecting the accuracy and import of these bits of information as they emerge. This morning I didn’t know how real the Iowa news was, and whether it mattered at all. Now the betting market is showing us that people are risking money on the assumption that it’s real and it matters. So I do appreciate that much about it. ---
**Author:** ![Smapti](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/smapti/32/17938_2.png) [@Smapti](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Smapti)\ **Post date:** [November 4, 2024, 1:28am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-can-donald-trump-win-at-this-point/1005351/3419 "2024-11-04T01:28:48Z")
> [@RickJay](#): > > You can’t tell me they haven’t gotten worse. It’s not as if Trump has appointed more judges since then. ---
**Author:** ![Whack-a-Mole](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/whack-a-mole/32/141_2.png) [@Whack-a-Mole](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Whack-a-Mole)\ **Post date:** [November 4, 2024, 1:32am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-can-donald-trump-win-at-this-point/1005351/3420 "2024-11-04T01:32:45Z")
> [@HMS\_Irruncible](#): > > I find the whole “betting markets are reality because real money is at stake” to be incredibly tiresome for a broad number of reasons. I have lost track of where it was posted (here on the SDMB) that the betting markets are clearly manipulated. There was a huge (yuge?) divergence a few weeks back when one big bet was put down. It seemed more a scheme to manipulate the election rather than a real belief it was a money-making bet. ---
**Author:** ![DSeid](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/dseid/32/20194_2.png) [@DSeid](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DSeid)\ **Post date:** [November 4, 2024, 2:01am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-can-donald-trump-win-at-this-point/1005351/3421 "2024-11-04T02:01:04Z")
Well so much for Trump having made _huge_ Latino progress in PA. > **[Univision Poll: More than 60% of Latino voters in Pennsylvania support Kamala...](https://www.univision.com/amp/noticias/elecciones-en-estados-unidos-2024/yougov-univision-poll-pennsylvania-latino-voters-show-strong-support-for-kamala-harris-amid-controversial-trump-rally-remarks)** > > A Univision and YouGov survey shows that 69% of respondents considered comments defining Puerto Rico as "a floating island of garbage" to be "more racist than humorous." Only 17% of respondents viewed the comments as intended jokes rather than... Harris 64% to Trump 30% [2020 exit poll](https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/11/03/us/elections/exit-polls-pennsylvania.html#)s were Biden 69% to Trump 27% Of course we will see what turnout actually is. After the fact. ---
**Author:** ![Euphonious\_Polemic](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/euphonious_polemic/32/3002_2.png) [@Euphonious\_Polemic](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Euphonious_Polemic)\ **Post date:** [November 4, 2024, 2:03am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-can-donald-trump-win-at-this-point/1005351/3422 "2024-11-04T02:03:08Z")
> [@Whack-a-Mole](#): > > There was a huge (yuge?) divergence a few weeks back when one big bet was put down. I believe it was three big bets all traced to the same account that swayed the market. (Waves at Elon) ---
**Author:** ![aurora\_maire](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/aurora_maire/32/328_2.png) [@aurora\_maire](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/aurora_maire)\ **Post date:** [November 4, 2024, 2:06am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-can-donald-trump-win-at-this-point/1005351/3423 "2024-11-04T02:06:50Z")
> [@Whack-a-Mole](#): > > There was a huge (yuge?) divergence a few weeks back when one big bet was put down. That money is coming from overseas. My guess is Russia. [Large bets in election prediction market are from overseas, source says | Reuters](https://www.reuters.com/world/us/large-bets-election-prediction-market-are-overseas-source-says-2024-10-18/) ---
**Author:** ![DSeid](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/dseid/32/20194_2.png) [@DSeid](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DSeid)\ **Post date:** [November 4, 2024, 4:27am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-can-donald-trump-win-at-this-point/1005351/3424 "2024-11-04T04:27:50Z")
> [@LSLGuy](#): > > Have you ever met a retirement-aged Georgia woman? 95% Republicans. If that’s who’s standing in these early voting lines, that is not good news for Harris. Returning to this with the Selzer Iowa poll, and this interview with Selzer in mind: > **[Pollster explains why Iowa poll suggests Kamala Harris is leading](https://www.bbc.com/news/videos/c2dlen5w91zo)** > > Ann Selzer spoke to BBC News about why Harris's lead may be attributed to women voters. I suspect older white rural Georgian women are not TOO different than those in Iowa. Her result was driven in particular by older women who broke two to one to Harris. As has been stated many times, Selzer could just be way off here, but if she is as right as she usually is then those older women voting may be good news for Harris after all, Republican registration or otherwise. ---
**Author:** ![DesertDog](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/desertdog/32/11503_2.png) [@DesertDog](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DesertDog)\ **Post date:** [November 4, 2024, 4:32am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-can-donald-trump-win-at-this-point/1005351/3425 "2024-11-04T04:32:11Z")
> [@DSeid](#): > > Previous years Trump did much better in small donations. This year he went for merch to avoid those pesky contribution limits. ---
**Author:** ![Smapti](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/smapti/32/17938_2.png) [@Smapti](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Smapti)\ **Post date:** [November 4, 2024, 4:36am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-can-donald-trump-win-at-this-point/1005351/3426 "2024-11-04T04:36:52Z")
> [@DSeid](#): > > Well so much for Trump having made _huge_ Latino progress in PA. As I said last week, the MSG rally is going to wind up being what costs him the election. ---
**Author:** ![Velocity](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/velocity/32/18006_2.png) [@Velocity](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Velocity)\ **Post date:** [November 4, 2024, 5:38am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-can-donald-trump-win-at-this-point/1005351/3427 "2024-11-04T05:38:04Z")
> [@Smapti](#): > > As I said last week, the MSG rally is going to wind up being what costs him the election. The race was lost for Trump long, long ago. The MSG rally was just the icing on the cake, a meaningless own-goal scored by Trump in stoppage time. ---
**Author:** ![Smapti](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/smapti/32/17938_2.png) [@Smapti](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Smapti)\ **Post date:** [November 4, 2024, 5:41am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-can-donald-trump-win-at-this-point/1005351/3428 "2024-11-04T05:41:47Z")
Look at how the polls and endorsements have shifted over the last week. The mask-off display of racism at that rally, and Trump’s constitutional inability to apologize or disavow it, was the last straw for a lot of people and it’s why undecideds are going to break for Harris. The final days of this campaign are going to be studied in the future as an example of why message discipline is so important. ---
**Author:** ![chappachula](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/c/d2c977/32.png) [@chappachula](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/chappachula)\ **Post date:** [November 4, 2024, 7:02am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-can-donald-trump-win-at-this-point/1005351/3429 "2024-11-04T07:02:07Z")
> [@DSeid](#): > > Really? Sudden changes? Or sudden differences in measuring techniques? I’m also wondering how they are measuring. How many people make a sudden 180-degree turn in 3 days-- after months (and years) of Trump’s craziness? We’ll find out about 70 hours from now. [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-can-donald-trump-win-at-this-point/1005351.md?page=170) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-can-donald-trump-win-at-this-point/1005351.md?page=172)